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Brazil Registers Anemic Growth in 3rd Quarter, Surprising Economists - NYTimes.com - 0 views

www.nytimes.com/...arter-shocking-economists.html brazil growth low
shared by Gene Ellis on 01 Dec 12 - No Cached
  • including its byzantine bureaucracy and woeful public schools.
  • Gene Ellis on 01 Dec 12
     
    Brazil low growth includes structural dilemmas, including byzantine bureaucracy and woeful public schools
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Exports of U.S. Gas May Fall Short of High Hopes - NYTimes.com - 0 views

www.nytimes.com/...-fall-short-of-high-hopes.html exports u s gas fall short
shared by Gene Ellis on 05 Jan 13 - No Cached
  • Gene Ellis on 05 Jan 13
     
    The need for flexibility in the world markets...
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Solutions Remain Elusive After Financial Crisis - NYTimes.com - 0 views

www.nytimes.com/...ve-after-financial-crisis.html
shared by Gene Ellis on 24 Apr 13 - No Cached
  • In this world, financial bubbles matter, capital flows are of dubious merit, low interest rates fail to stimulate growth and government spending becomes the only tool with real traction to spur economic activity.
  • With total government debt in the rich world stuck at around 100 percent of its combined economic output, there is a legitimate fear that a rise in interest rates could tip off a financial death spiral. Moreover, if countries with debt levels well under 50 percent of G.D.P. were so devastated by the crisis, it is hard to imagine what might happen to them if another were to hit them.
  • If so, the urgent task is what kind of limits should be imposed on banking and the rest of finance to temper its propensity to careen toward disaster.
  • ...1 more annotation...
  • What good does the modern financial system do, for the rest of us? What determines financial fluctuations and shocks? How do they affect the broader economy? What can governments do to make them less disruptive? Economists have few answers.
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Happy 2013? | vox - 0 views

www.voxeu.org/happy-2013
shared by Gene Ellis on 26 Jan 13 - No Cached
  • Hopefully the following ten observations are less controversial in 2013 than in previous years.
  • As long known by elementary textbook readers, austerity policies have contractionary effects.
  • Debt reduction is a very long process; we're talking about decades,
  • ...20 more annotations...
  • The debt-to-GDP ratio is best reduced through sustained nominal GDP growth.
  • Besides, having been there, no one really wants to unleash inflation anymore. That leaves us with real GDP growth as a necessary condition for bringing the debt-to-GDP down painlessly.
  • But in today’s world voters are angry at everything that is called Europe and will not back a fiscal union.
  • The crisis has delivered a surprising degree of wage flexibility and labour mobility.
  • This means that the need for dissolving the euro back into national currencies at almost any cost has evaporated.
  • Sustained real growth should be the number one priority.
  • In most Eurozone countries, structural reforms are as needed now as they were before the crisis.
  • Banks are at the heart of a diabolic loop: bank holdings of their national public debts (Brunnermeier et al., 2011).
  • The long-hoped-for awakening of the ECB has produced several miracles, especially a major relaxation of market anguish.
  • For that reason, they deleverage, which leads to a credit crunch, which slows growth down.
  • The ECB is the lender of last resort both to banks and to governments.
  • This involves massive moral hazard.
  • Massive forbearance has allowed many banks to not fully account for the losses that they incurred in 2007-8.
  • Austerity policies must stop, now.
  • Growth will not return unless bank lending is adequately available.
  • The ECB may act as lender in last resort to banks and governments, but who will bear the residual costs?
  • The only remaining option is public debt restructuring, a purging of the legacy.
  • This will lead to bank failures. This means that debt reductions must be deep enough to make it possible for governments to then borrow, to shift to expansionary fiscal policies and to bail out the banks that they destroyed in the first place, in effect undoing the diabolic loop.
  • Who will lend? Even the best-crafted bank restructuring will not allow an immediate recovery of market access. The ECB is the only institution in the world that can help out.
  • There is no easy option for the Eurozone after three years of deep mismanagement. Governments will not accept drastic action unless forced to. This means that we need another round of crisis worsening.
  • Gene Ellis on 26 Jan 13
     
    Good article by Wyplosz on ten observations and five consequences of Euro policy. 4 Jan 2013
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Hamish McRae: Lengthy stagnation for West in a two-tier world - Hamish McRae - Business... - 0 views

www.independent.co.uk/...n-a-twotier-world-8365037.html
shared by Gene Ellis on 13 Dec 12 - No Cached
  • Gene Ellis on 13 Dec 12
     
    Nov 28, 2012, using Buiter Citigroup report
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