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Gene Ellis

The Doha Trade Talks - Council on Foreign Relations - 0 views

www.cfr.org/...p10555

trade talks council relations

shared by Gene Ellis on 04 Apr 12 - No Cached
  • Gene Ellis on 04 Apr 12
     
    DOHA TRADE TALKS
Gene Ellis

Talking Troubled Turkey - NYTimes.com - 0 views

www.nytimes.com/...n-talking-troubled-turkey.html

shared by Gene Ellis on 31 Jan 14 - No Cached
  • Talking Troubled Turkey
  • probably because most countries placed restrictions on cross-border capital flows, so that international borrowing and lending were limited.
  • a bigger version of the same story unfolded in Asia: Huge money inflows followed by a sudden stop and economic implosion.
  • ...2 more annotations...
  • And the same forces that sent money sloshing into Turkey also make the world economy as a whole highly vulnerable.
  • If this is a good description of our situation, and I believe it is, we now have a world economy destined to seesaw between bubbles and depression
Gene Ellis

Greece Must Walk the Talk, and Soon - NYTimes.com - 0 views

www.nytimes.com/...st-walk-the-talk-and-soon.html

shared by Gene Ellis on 07 Apr 15 - No Cached
  • Greece Must Walk the Talk, and Soon
Gene Ellis

Can Oregon save American health care? - 0 views

www.washingtonpost.com/...egon-save-american-health-care

oregon american health health care

shared by Gene Ellis on 18 Jan 13 - No Cached
  • Medicaid enrollment shrank by 46 percent as patients affected by the changes left the program — likely relegated to the ranks of the uninsured — between February and December 2003, according to research published in the journal Health Affairs.
  • Separate research has found that when Medicaid premiums rise by 1 to 5 percent of an uninsured family’s income, their odds of participating drop from 57 to 18 percent.
  • “For the last 30 years, both the private and public sector have done the same things to manage health-care costs,” said Bruce Goldberg, the Oregon Health Authority director who oversees the Medicaid program. “They’ve cut people from coverage, cut payment rates or cut benefits
  • ...8 more annotations...
  • St. Charles noted that 144 patients tended to use the emergency room the most. Taken together, they averaged 14.25 trips each over 12 months. These patients drove much of the area’s Medicaid spending.
  • The majority had unmet mental health needs, even though most had Medicaid, which provides mental health coverage.
  • It stationed community health workers in emergency rooms, who could help assess why patients had turned up.
  • Of the 144 patients in the study, only 62 percent agreed to work with a community worker on a plan for their care. The others proved difficult to track down or did not want to participate.
  • Emergency department visits fell by 49 percent. On average, the program generated about $3,000 in savings per patient.
  • “I’m reassured by people talking about the role primary care providers need to play,” said Ern Teuber, the clinic’s executive director. “Still, when we start talking specific dollars, the perception is there isn’t enough money to go around and that somebody has to lose.”
  • It’s a huge issue, and there’s no doubt that hospital business models are going to have to change,”
  • “Medicaid by itself isn’t enough to change things,” he said. “For a lot of hospitals, it’s maybe 7 percent of their business. We have another 600,000 people the state covers.
Gene Ellis

Willem Buiter On The Economic Prospects For The Eurozone - 0 views

www.social-europe.eu/...mic-prospects-for-the-eurozone

shared by Gene Ellis on 26 Mar 13 - No Cached
  • Gene Ellis on 26 Mar 13
     
    Superb, densely packed, talk by Willem Buiter at the Council for Foreign Relations, Late March, 2013
Gene Ellis

Crippled eurozone to face fresh debt crisis this year, warns ex-ECB strongman Axel Webe... - 0 views

www.telegraph.co.uk/...-ECB-strongman-Axel-Weber.html

shared by Gene Ellis on 24 Jan 14 - No Cached
  • Crippled eurozone to face fresh debt crisis this year, warns ex-ECB strongman Axel Weber
  • Harvard professor Kenneth Rogoff said the launch of the euro had been a "giant historic mistake, done to soon" that now requires a degree of fiscal union and a common bank resolution fund to make it work, but EMU leaders are still refusing to take these steps.
  • "People are no longer talking about the euro falling apart but youth unemployment is really horrific. They can't leave this twisting in wind for another five years," he said.
  • ...8 more annotations...
  • Mr Rogoff said Europe is squandering the "scarce resource" of its youth, badly needed to fortify an ageing society as the demographic crunch sets in.
  • "If these latent technologies are not realised, Europe will wake up like Rip Van Winkel from a long Japan-like slumber to find itself a much smaller part of the world economy, and a lot less important."
  • Pierre Nanterme, chairman and chief executive officer of Accenture, said Europe is losing the great battle for competitiveness, and risks a perma-slump where debt burdens of 100pc of GDP prevent governments breaking free by investing in skills and technology.
  • Mr Weber, who resigned from the Bundesbank and the ECB in a dispute over euro debt crisis strategy, said new "bail-in" rules for bond-holders of eurozone banks will cause investors to act pre-emptively, aiming to avoid large losses before the ECB issues its test verdicts. "We may see that speculators do not wait until November, but bet on winners and losers before that," he said.
  • Sir Martin said the eurozone is pursuing a reverse "Phillips Curve" - the trade off between jobs and inflation - as if it were testing "what level of unemployment it is prepared to tolerate for zero inflation".
  • Mr Rogoff said debt write-downs across the EMU periphery "will eventually happen" but the longer leaders let the crisis fester with half-measures, the worse damage this will do to European society in the end.
  • He said Europe is falling further behind as the US basks in cheap energy and pours funds into cutting-edge technology. "A lot is at stake. If in 12 to 24 months no radical steps are taken to break the curse, we might have not just five, ten, but twenty years of a low-growth sluggish situation in Europe," he said.
  • "People are no longer talking about the euro falling apart but youth unemployment is really horrific. They can't leave this twisting in wind for another five years," he said
Gene Ellis

European Union Suspends Talks With Ukraine Over Trade Deal - NYTimes.com - 0 views

www.nytimes.com/...ukraine-protests.html

ukraine

shared by Gene Ellis on 09 Jan 14 - No Cached
  • European Union Suspends Talks With Ukraine Over Trade Deal
Gene Ellis

Russia's message to the E.U.: Money talks - The Washington Post - 0 views

www.washingtonpost.com/...4-8936-26932bcfd6ed_story.html

shared by Gene Ellis on 05 Feb 15 - No Cached
  • Gene Ellis on 05 Feb 15
     
    Anne Applebaum
Gene Ellis

Carmakers Are Central Voice in U.S.-Europe Trade Talks - NYTimes.com - 0 views

www.nytimes.com/...for-us-europe-trade-talks.html

shared by Gene Ellis on 18 Feb 15 - No Cached
  • With the dexterity of thieves stripping a vehicle for parts, they remove each van’s engine, bumpers, tires, drive shaft, fuel tank and the exhaust system.
  • Next, the crews pack everything into steel freight containers, which begin a journey by river barge and cargo ship to Ladson, S.C., near the port of Charleston. There, American teams put the vans back together again.
  • It would be more efficient to ship the vans in one piece, of course. But with current trade rules, efficiency is seldom the goal.
  • ...10 more annotations...
  • Daimler’s stripped-down vans travel by cargo ship to Ladson, S.C., where a token portion of assembly occurs to avoid a costly American tariff.
  • It was first imposed on European light trucks during the 1960s in retaliation for German and French trade restrictions on American chickens.
  • The importance of European-American auto production, meanwhile, was highlighted by Volkswagen’s announcement on Monday that it would open a new production line in Chattanooga, Tenn., to make sport utility vehicles.
  • In Europe, discussion about the economic benefits of an agreement has been overshadowed by fears that more open trade would expose the Continent to what are widely perceived as less stringent safety and environmental standards in the United States. (And once again, chickens play a big role.)
  • Trucks, cars and other transportation equipment such as airplanes make up the second-biggest category of merchandise traded between the United States and Europe, just behind chemicals.
  • n the first three months of 2014 alone, the United States exported $2.6 billion in motor vehicles and parts to the European Union, and imported $12.3 billion worth.
  • The engines and other components used in Freightliner heavy trucks made in Portland, Ore., are similar to those installed in Mercedes-Benz heavy trucks made in Wörth, Germany. But Daimler must design and engineer many parts twice — and submit them for regulatory certification twice — to meet different United States and European rules.
  • The reason that Daimler goes to the trouble of finishing assembly in Germany in the first place is that the vehicles must be test-driven before they leave the factory. It would be too costly to set up a separate testing operation in the United States, the company said.
  • Industries like chemicals and pharmaceuticals are even trickier, and food is a particularly emotional issue in Europe.
  • there is a fixation on American chickens disinfected with chlorine, which local consumers find repellent
Gene Ellis

Kerry promotes U.S.-European trade deal - The Washington Post - 0 views

www.washingtonpost.com/...2-814b-063623d80a60_story.html

shared by Gene Ellis on 27 Mar 13 - No Cached
  • France wants to slow down consideration of the proposed transatlantic free-trade zone encompassing about 40 percent of the world’s trade. Germany and Britain are in favor of the plan and want to move fast.
  • The Obama administration says a comprehensive deal would further open European markets and expand exports to the euro zone of U.S. goods and services, currently worth $459 billion a year. Backers say the deal would add more than 13 million jobs in the United States and Europe.
  • But supporters also fear that trade talks will bog down or collapse over parochial concerns, and must be streamlined to succeed.
  • ...1 more annotation...
  • one of the objections that France is expected to raise over what it calls cultural exceptions to free trade on products with a specific geographic or national significance, such as Champagne wine.
Gene Ellis

French Tax Proposal Tackles Data Harvest by Google and Facebook - NYTimes.com - 0 views

www.nytimes.com/...n-web-giants-data-harvest.html

shared by Gene Ellis on 26 Feb 13 - No Cached
  • Internet companies like Amazon.com, Facebook and Google stay largely out of reach of tax collectors in large European countries like Britain, France and Germany by routing their sales through smaller countries, like Ireland and Luxembourg, where corporate tax rates are lower. The companies insist that such practices are permitted under European Union law and international taxation treaties.
  • France and other countries have begun talks to change those conventions, so Internet companies could be taxed in the country where a sale takes place, rather than in the location where the transaction is recorded. But that could take many years, with no guarantee of any change.
  • A recent study by Ovum, a research firm in London, showed that 81 percent of Internet users in France would use a “do not track” feature on Web sites if it were readily available. That was the highest percentage in any of the 11 countries surveyed.
Gene Ellis

Big Banks' Tall Tales by Simon Johnson - Project Syndicate - 0 views

www.project-syndicate.org/...-of-megabanks-by-simon-johnson

shared by Gene Ellis on 25 Apr 13 - No Cached
  • In the second narrative, the world’s largest banks remain too big to manage and have strong incentives to engage in precisely the kind of excessive risk-taking that can bring down economies. Last year’s “London Whale” trading losses at JPMorgan Chase are a case in point. And, according to this narrative’s advocates, almost all big banks display symptoms of chronic mismanagement.
  • But a great myth lurks at the heart of the financial industry’s argument that all is well. The FDIC’s resolution powers will not work for large, complex cross-border financial enterprises.  The reason is simple: US law can create a resolution authority that works only within national boundaries. Addressing potential failure at a firm like Citigroup would require a cross-border agreement between governments and all responsible agencies.
  • I had the opportunity to talk with senior officials and their advisers from various countries, including from Europe. I asked all of them the same question: When will we have a binding framework for cross-border resolution?CommentsView/Create comment on this paragraphThe answers typically ranged from “not in our lifetimes” to “never.” Again, the reason is simple: countries do not want to compromise their sovereignty or tie their hands in any way.
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  • This form of government support amounts to a large implicit subsidy for big banks.
  • What other part of the corporate world has the ability to drive the global economy into recession, as banks did in the fall of 2008?
Gene Ellis

European Union Leaders Agree to Slimmer Budget - NYTimes.com - 0 views

www.nytimes.com/...ropean-union-budget-talks.html

european union

shared by Gene Ellis on 09 Feb 13 - No Cached
  • Why should a Latvian cow deserve less money than a French, Dutch or even Romanian one?
  • In a system that requires unanimous approval of budget decisions, what Latvia wants for its dairy farmers — or Estonia for its railways, Hungary for its poorer regions or Spain for its fishermen — is no small matter.
  • The colossal effort that was required to agree to a sum of about 960 billion euros ($1.3 trillion), a mere 1 percent of the bloc’s gross domestic product, exposed once again the stubborn attachment to national priorities that has made reaching agreements on how to save the euro so painful in recent years.
  • ...5 more annotations...
  • the ordeal as “not a pleasant experience,” but said, “It only happens every seven years, so we can tolerate it.”
  • Britain, Sweden and the Netherlands were among the Northern European nations that fought hard to reduce agricultural subsidies and increase spending on research and development to bolster the bloc’s global competitiveness.
  • The spectacle of European leaders haggling through the night over amounts of money representing rounding errors in their national accounts demonstrated vividly their reluctance to make collective policies that erode their nations’ sovereignty.
  • “What we’re seeing is that European integration is very important to European leaders as long as it doesn’t imply that someone has to be paying for someone else,”
  • farm spending remained the largest single portion of the budget, accounting for about 38 percent of the total — although that was down from about 42 percent in the previous seven-year budget period.
Gene Ellis

European Union Leaders Agree to Slimmer Budget - NYTimes.com - 0 views

www.nytimes.com/...ropean-union-budget-talks.html

shared by Gene Ellis on 09 Feb 13 - No Cached
  • Galileo, a grossly overbudget and still unfinished satellite navigation project that aims to free Europe from its dependence on the United States’ global positioning system, escaped the cuts and is to receive 6.3 billion euros from 2014 to 2020.
  • But he cheered the preservation of heavy spending on farm subsidies, of which France is the biggest beneficiary.
  • And about 1 billion euros in cuts came from the part of the budget used to employ 55,000 people, including 6,000 translators,
  • ...2 more annotations...
  • he devoted much of a postsummit news conference to boasting about his steadfast defense of British interests, particularly a multibillion-dollar rebate that Britain receives each year on its payments.
  • In the Baltic nations, for example, farmers are furious that a system of cash payments to support agriculture is skewed in favor of farmers from richer countries like France and the Netherlands. Latvian farmers say they get less than 40 percent of the European Union’s average payment level for each acre of land. Dairy farmers say they fare even worse, getting just 20 percent of what their Dutch counterparts receive.
Gene Ellis

Happy 2013? | vox - 0 views

www.voxeu.org/happy-2013

shared by Gene Ellis on 26 Jan 13 - No Cached
  • Hopefully the following ten observations are less controversial in 2013 than in previous years.
  • As long known by elementary textbook readers, austerity policies have contractionary effects.
  • Debt reduction is a very long process; we're talking about decades,
  • ...20 more annotations...
  • The debt-to-GDP ratio is best reduced through sustained nominal GDP growth.
  • Besides, having been there, no one really wants to unleash inflation anymore. That leaves us with real GDP growth as a necessary condition for bringing the debt-to-GDP down painlessly.
  • But in today’s world voters are angry at everything that is called Europe and will not back a fiscal union.
  • The crisis has delivered a surprising degree of wage flexibility and labour mobility.
  • This means that the need for dissolving the euro back into national currencies at almost any cost has evaporated.
  • Sustained real growth should be the number one priority.
  • In most Eurozone countries, structural reforms are as needed now as they were before the crisis.
  • Banks are at the heart of a diabolic loop: bank holdings of their national public debts (Brunnermeier et al., 2011).
  • Massive forbearance has allowed many banks to not fully account for the losses that they incurred in 2007-8.
  • For that reason, they deleverage, which leads to a credit crunch, which slows growth down.
  • The ECB is the lender of last resort both to banks and to governments.
  • This involves massive moral hazard.
  • The long-hoped-for awakening of the ECB has produced several miracles, especially a major relaxation of market anguish.
  • Austerity policies must stop, now.
  • Growth will not return unless bank lending is adequately available.
  • The ECB may act as lender in last resort to banks and governments, but who will bear the residual costs?
  • The only remaining option is public debt restructuring, a purging of the legacy.
  • This will lead to bank failures. This means that debt reductions must be deep enough to make it possible for governments to then borrow, to shift to expansionary fiscal policies and to bail out the banks that they destroyed in the first place, in effect undoing the diabolic loop.
  • Who will lend? Even the best-crafted bank restructuring will not allow an immediate recovery of market access. The ECB is the only institution in the world that can help out.
  • There is no easy option for the Eurozone after three years of deep mismanagement. Governments will not accept drastic action unless forced to. This means that we need another round of crisis worsening.
  • Gene Ellis on 26 Jan 13
     
    Good article by Wyplosz on ten observations and five consequences of Euro policy. 4 Jan 2013
Gene Ellis

Europe Can't Handle the Euro - 0 views

www.nber.org/...wj020800.html

shared by Gene Ellis on 31 May 12 - No Cached
  • When leaders of the 11 nations that agreed to combine their currencies gathered in January 1999, they predicted great things: the single currency would shift global portfolios to euro assets, depressing the value of the dollar relative to the euro, and the new eurozone would be a strong player in the global economy, reflecting the size of an integrated European market. Instead the euro plummeted, Europes economy remains weak, and unemployment is more than twice the U.S. level.
  • The ECB will eventually be judged not by its words but by whether it achieves low inflation and does so without increasing cyclical unemployment. I am not optimistic about either part of this goal.
  • The ECB must make monetary policy for "Europe as a whole," which in practice means doing what is appropriate for Germany, France and Italy, the eurozones three largest countries. Last year demand conditions in those countries were relatively weak, while demand conditions in Spain and Ireland were very strong. That meant a monetary policy that was too expansionary for Spain and Ireland, causing a substantial acceleration of their inflation and threatening their competitiveness.
  • ...7 more annotations...
  • Such disparities of demand conditions will undoubtedly persist in the future because European countries differ substantially in industrial composition and in a variety of economic policies.
  • the time will come when the ECB will set a policy that is too tight for the outliers, leading to substantially higher unemployment than if they were free to set their own monetary policies. Even without discretionary monetary policies, the interest rates in countries with weak demand would naturally decline, and the external values of their currencies would fall, both acting as offsetting stabilizers of the countries weak demand. But this will not be possible within the EMU, where a single interest rate and a single exchange rate prevail. Result: higher average cyclical unemployment.
  • In the U.S., a fall in regional demand leads to lower wages, which help to maintain employment; to movements of labor to regions where demand is stronger; and to a net fiscal transfer from Washington (because lower regional income means lower federal tax liability). None of this happens in Europe, where wages are inflexible, mobility is severely limited by language and custom, and there are no significant fiscal transfers.
  • Politicians can now blame the ECB for high unemployment and complain that it is a powerful force beyond national control. Instead of seeking to make labor markets more flexible, European governments are talking more about "social wages," about mandatory 35-hour workweeks, and about rolling back even the small reductions in social benefits Germany achieved under Helmut Kohls government. Worse yet, there are attempts to eliminate differences in labor practices and even differences in wages among the EMU countries.
  • Moreover, these policies reduce the international competitiveness of many European industries and encourage the adoption of protectionist policies to keep out non-European products.
  • Forcing a single monetary policy on all of Europe will cause the countries that suffer what they regard as unnecessarily high unemployment to resent the actions of others. Attempts to force a Europewide tax system, especially if taxes are used to redistribute incomes among European countries, will compound the potential for conflict.
  • EMU is meant to be a marriage made in heaven with no possibility of divorce.
Gene Ellis

Spain to Test Bond Markets as Economy Minister Warns on Debt - NYTimes.com - 0 views

www.nytimes.com/...daily-euro-zone-watch.html

shared by Gene Ellis on 17 Jul 12 - No Cached
  • the country’s economy minister, Luis de Guindos, warned Tuesday that European debt markets were not working properly because foreign investors were being deterred by the euro zone’s slow and complex decision-making procedures.
  • In recent weeks the interest demanded by investors on longer-term debt has crept up around 6 percent for Italy and 7 percent for Spain, close to the level that analysts say could make government finances unsustainable in the medium term.
  • In an interview in the Spanish daily La Vanguardia, Mr. de Guindos said that foreign investors were increasingly staying away from bond auctions, leaving only domestic buyers.
  • ...3 more annotations...
  • Mr. de Guindos said that debt purchases between countries within the 17-nation single currency area had virtually ground to a halt.
  • Debt auctions in Italy at the end of last week came off better than some observers had expected and, although borrowing costs remain high, the successful debt sale has increased the prospect that the euro zone can avert another crisis during the summer break.
  • The ministers are expected to hold talks on Friday to agree to extend 30 billion euros for the rescue by the end of the month. By agreement of European Union leaders last month, the debt will go direct to banks, rather than being added to the Spanish government’s finances, once plans for a new regulatory structure for Europe’s banks is put in place.
Gene Ellis

New Truths That Only One Can See - NYTimes.com - 0 views

www.nytimes.com/...ths-that-only-one-can-see.html

methodology

shared by Gene Ellis on 22 Jan 14 - No Cached
  • New Truths That Only One Can See
  • Given the desire for ambitious scientists to break from the pack with a striking new finding, Dr. Ioannidis reasoned, many hypotheses already start with a high chance of being wrong
  • Taking into account the human tendency to see what we want to see, unconscious bias is inevitable.
  • ...5 more annotations...
  • The effect is amplified by competition for a shrinking pool of grant money and also by the design of so many experiments — with small sample sizes (cells in a lab dish or people in an epidemiological pool) and weak standards for what passes as statistically significant.
  • If one of five competing labs is alone in finding an effect, that result is the one likely to be published.
  • Among them is a paper in which C. Glenn Begley, who is chief scientific officer at TetraLogic Pharmaceuticals, described an experience he had while at Amgen, another drug company. He and his colleagues could not replicate 47 of 53 landmark papers about cancer. Some of the results could not be reproduced even with the help of the original scientists working in their own labs.
  • Scientists talk about “tacit knowledge,” the years of mastery it can take to perform a technique. The image they convey is of an experiment as unique as a Rembrandt.
  • The problem stands to get worse. It has been estimated that the corpus of scientific knowledge has doubled in size every 10 to 15 years since the days of Isaac Newton.
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