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Gene Ellis

Changing Course, Russia Will Sell Rubles Instead of Buying - NYTimes.com - 0 views

  • Changing Course, Russia Will Sell Rubles Instead of Buying
Gene Ellis

Oversize Expectations for the Airbus A380 - NYTimes.com - 0 views

  • this aircraft, which can hold more than 500 passengers. The plane dwarfs every commercial jet in the skies.
  • Its two full-length decks total 6,000 square feet, 50 percent more than the original jumbo jet, the Boeing 747.
  • The A380 was also Airbus’s answer to a problematic trend: More and more passengers meant more flights and increasingly congested tarmacs. Airbus figured that the future of air travel belonged to big planes flying between major hubs.
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  • Airbus has struggled to sell the planes. Orders have been slow, and not a single buyer has been found in the United States, South America, Africa or India.
  • While the A380 program has been a boon for the European aerospace industry, Airbus is unlikely to recover its research and development costs. The best it can now expect is to break even on production costs, according to analysts, provided that it can keep orders going.
  • Airbus made the wrong prediction about travel preferences. People would rather take direct flights on smaller airplanes, he said, than get on big airplanes — no matter their feats of engineering — that make connections through huge hubs.
  • “It’s a commercial disaster,” Mr. Aboulafia says. “Every conceivably bad idea that anyone’s ever had about the aviation industry is embodied in this airplane.”
  • Airline executives were wary of expanding their fleets aggressively, especially for a costly, four-engine fuel hog.
  • A little more than a decade ago, the two dominant airplane makers, Boeing and Airbus, looked at where their businesses were headed and saw similar facts: air traffic doubling every 15 years, estimates that the number of travelers would hit four billion by 2030 — and came to radically different conclusions about what those numbers meant for their future.
  • “The A380 is not made for every route, but it is ideal for high-traffic routes, high-volume routes that are congested, or where there are flying constraints,”
  • And there are a fair number of those routes. Around 15 of the 20 largest long-haul routes by passenger volume in the world today are slot-constrained,
  • Boeing, too, is facing lukewarm demand for its latest jumbo jet upgrade, known as the 747-8. The company has received just 51 orders for this big plane, which can seat about 460 passengers and lists at $357 million. By contrast, it has sold more than 1,200 twin-engine 777s, which sell for as much as $320 million.
  • Richard H. Anderson, Delta’s chief executive, has said the A380 is “by definition an uneconomic airplane unless you’re a state-owned enterprise with subsidies.”
  • Bruno Delile, Air France’s senior vice president for fleet management, says that there are a limited number of routes in its network with enough daily traffic to justify the expense of such a big plane. “The forecasts about traffic growth and market saturation haven’t exactly panned out,” he says.
  • Not only do airlines take a big risk on the size and cost of the A380, but they also have to gain the cooperation of airports to modify gates and widen taxiways to make room for the plane.
  • With versions that seat 210 to 330 passengers, and with a range of about 9,000 miles, the 787 allows airlines to fly pretty much anywhere in the world and connect smaller airports without going through a hub.
  • And passengers are willing to pay more to avoid a connection
  • f most airlines appear skeptical of the A380, Emirates is a true believer. It stunned the industry in December when it ordered 50 more of the planes, beyond the 90 it already had on order, throwing Airbus a much needed lifeline
  • The airport handled 66 million passengers last year, rivaling Heathrow as the busiest international hub.
  • for Emirates, the biggest selling point of the A380 is its ability to pack in more business-class seats and create an environment that appeals to big-spending passengers.
Gene Ellis

IBM Wants to Invent the Chips of the Future, Not Make Them - NYTimes.com - 0 views

  • For several months, IBM has been seeking to sell its chip-manufacturing operations
  • The most likely buyer is GlobalFoundries, a large contract chip manufacturer, the person said, for a price of probably less than $2 billion.
  • Ms. Rometty stated that while IBM’s priorities were in fields like data analytics and cloud computing, and it had agreed to sell its industry-standard computer server business to Lenovo of China for $2.3 billion, she added: “But let me be clear — we are not exiting hardware.”
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  • Selling its semiconductor-manufacturing operations would mesh with IBM’s well-established course of shedding hardware businesses with lower profit margins. Over the years, the company has retreated from printers, personal computers and disk drives, as well as its pending sale of smaller server computers. Designing chips and licensing technology, without manufacturing, can be lucrative. Qualcomm, a maker of chips for mobile devices, is the showcase example.
  • IBM’s research agenda is a recognition that the end of the silicon era of computing, using complementary metal-oxide semiconductor technology, or CMOS, is finally on the horizon.
  • “IBM is not giving up on silicon, but it is saying it’s time to place an array of bets, and to move beyond silicon.”
Gene Ellis

IMF Sees European Banks Facing $4.5 Trillion Sell-Off - Businessweek - 0 views

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Gene Ellis

The Eurocrisis Can Easily Flare Up Again - Seeking Alpha - 0 views

  • It is clear for all that they will also have to swallow cuts, but for this to take place, politicians have to break promises, the ECB has to break the law, and the IMF has to do something rather unprecedented. None of this is easy, to put it mildly.
  • Recently, there was a new EU/IMF/ECB 'agreement' that won't fare any better.
  • Basically, we're lending Greece more in order for it to keep the appearance that it is servicing and paying of the debt.
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  • The International Monetary Fund will not disburse Greece's next bailout tranche until the country completes a voluntary buy back of its debt, an IMF spokesman said
  • Who will actually sell the debt at a 70% discount?
  • Most private Greek debt holders just want to hold to maturity, they've already been subjected to two haircuts.
  • Two thirds of the private holders of Greek debt are Greek banks (22 billion euro). These are certainly not going to sell because doing so forces them to realize losses on the debt,
  • There is a simple and obvious solution, which will then force itself. The official creditors should take really substantial losses on Greek debt.
  • The simple truth is that as long as Greece's economy is moribund and its debt/GDP trajectory spiraling out of control, nobody is going to invest in Greece, capital and educated people will leave in a vicious cycle, and Greece's capacity for paying back its debt shrinks by the day. Something has to give.
  • The only real alternative is Greece leaving the euro
  • This situation is basically a slow asphyxiation.
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    Exc. piece...  Eurocrisis as of Dec. 3, 2012
Gene Ellis

With Restructuring Done, EADS Faces New Challenges - NYTimes.com - 0 views

  • One of the big arguments being made by the economic ministry is, ‘We give you lots of defense business, so you have got to provide a lot of high-tech jobs in Germany.’
  • EADS’s future in the United States, meanwhile, poses different challenges.
  • Those attempts have included an ultimately unsuccessful bid for a $35 billion aerial refueling tanker contract with the U.S. Air Force as well as the failed attempt last year to merge with BAE, one of the Pentagon’s top 10 contractors.
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  • But with major U.S. players like Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman almost certainly out of reach for national security reasons,
  • “I have no illusions about how difficult it is to sell non-American products on the American market,” Mr. Enders said. “We should not even dream about trying to sell a product to a U.S. defense customer if it is not really superior to what our American peers are offering.” Analysts tended to agree.
Gene Ellis

A Multibillion-Dollar Question for Airbus and Its A330 - NYTimes.com - 0 views

  • A Multibillion-Dollar Question for Airbus and Its A330
  • While the A330 continues to generate around 40 percent of Airbus’s civilian aircraft profits, new orders for the plane have slowed significantly in recent years.
  • But with the wait times to receive new planes now stretching to more than six years, airlines have been slower to reach for their checkbooks.
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  • Analysts say a revamped A330 would probably not be able to compete with the fuel economy of Boeing’s three-year-old 787 Dreamliner or with the updated 777, which in addition to new engines will have lighter wings made of carbon fiber instead of aluminum.
  • A more attractive price tag, combined with earlier availability — analysts say a revamped A330 could be ready for service in four years — would probably attract a wide range of customers.
  • Still, a revamped A330 would burn around 15 percent more fuel than its newer competitors, meaning that it could be a tough sell, even at a discount.
  • "Will you end up selling any more than you would have if you stuck with the old version and cut the price?” asked Mr. Cunningham, the London analyst. He noted that the current low interest-rate environment was already reducing customers’ sensitivity to list price, while the recent instability in the Middle East was refocusing attention on the risk of rising oil prices.
  • “There is much more fragmentation” of the wide-body jet market, Mr. Lasou said. “Each aircraft type is covering a smaller range of routes. The market is becoming much more specialized.”
Gene Ellis

Greece Exceeds Debt-Buyback Target - WSJ.com - 0 views

  • The buyback is the latest attempt to squeeze debt relief from Greece's private creditors. But Greece may yet face a further restructuring down the road, observers and analysts say—possibly involving official-sector creditors, including other euro-zone countries.
  • Greece's official creditors—the euro zone, the European Central Bank and the IMF—now hold roughly four-fifths of the country's debt, but have been reluctant to accept losses that would hurt taxpayers.
  • The bond buyback is a central element of a plan aiming to reduce Greece's debt to 124% of gross domestic product by 2020. The IMF insists debt must be reduced to that level, and well below 110% of GDP two years later, to continue handing out loans to Greece. The buyback seeks to retire about half of the €62 billion in debt that Athens owes private creditors.
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  • However, as of last week, the country's four biggest banks had committed to sell just 67% of their total portfolio, hoping to hold on to the balance. This amount now is believed to have increased to almost 100% as they receive bonds issued by the European Financial Stability Fund—the euro-zone's temporary rescue fund—in exchange for Greek debt. "Greek banks were under pressure from the European Central Bank to take part in the buyback," said a senior official at one of the Greek banks. "Now the bonds they will use to borrow money from the ECB will be EFSF bonds, which means that the central bank is reducing its exposure to Greece."
Gene Ellis

Bringer of Prosperity or Bottomless Pit? 'Putting the Virtuous in the Dock Rather than ... - 0 views

  • You should look at it more holistically. We wouldn't have been able to increase our exports if the other countries had behaved like us and had not increased their demand for an entire decade.
  • Excluding Greece from the union would be the completely wrong approach. Greece's problem is its inefficiency in terms of public finances. That can be corrected.
  • Starbatty: In my experience, speculators are only successful when political promises diverge from economic reality, as has become clear in Greece.
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  • In the German Council of Economic Experts, we proposed a consolidation pact, under which each country would be required to specify a fully verifiable path that it will follow as it puts its financial house in order. It wouldn't just be a solution for Greece; it would be for everyone.
  • And you seriously believe that would help? Following that approach, the Greeks would save themselves to death, just as the Germans did in the early 1930s under then-Reich Chancellor Heinrich Brüning. What you expect the Greeks to do is Brüning squared. The real problem is that Greece shouldn't have been accepted into the monetary union in the first place.
    • Gene Ellis
       
      An important point:  the role of German policy in allowing 1.3 million short-term workers into the labor market, and its role in lowering the tax on labor.
  • But such a pact would be circumscribed to helping countries help themselves.
  • But government debt is still growing considerably. Doesn't this also increase the risk of inflation? Starbatty: That's what I assume. Inflation would be an elegant means of reducing debt, and many academics are discussing this scenario. But it becomes truly problematic when government bonds eventually lose their status as a safe haven. If China or Japan arrive at this conclusion and sell their bonds, a bubble could burst that is far more dangerous than any other bubble. If that happens, markets will plunge, and interest rates will shoot up.
  • Likewise, when it comes to assistance, I think we have a clear legal framework, according to which neither any member state nor the entire Union can be held liable for the debt of another member state.
  • its 1.3 million short-time workers do not find regular employment again,
  • The European Central Bank would never, ever contemplate using inflation to eliminate debt.
Gene Ellis

The Tragedy of the European Union and How to Resolve It by George Soros | The New York ... - 0 views

  • It took financial markets more than a year to realize the implications of Chancellor Merkel’s declaration, demonstrating that they operate with far-from-perfect knowledge
  • the financial markets began to realize that government bonds, which had been considered riskless, carried significant risks and could actually default. When they finally discovered it, risk premiums in the form of higher yields that governments had to offer so as to sell their bonds rose dramatically. This rendered commercial banks whose balance sheets were loaded with those bonds potentially insolvent.
  • That created both a sovereign debt problem and a banking problem,
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  • The creditors are in effect shifting the whole burden of adjustment onto the debtor countries and avoiding their own responsibility for the imbalances.
  • In this context the German word Schuld is revealing: it means both debt and guilt. German public opinion blames the heavily indebted countries for their misfortune.
  • The Maastricht Treaty took it for granted that only the public sector can produce chronic deficits. It assumed that financial markets would always correct their own excesses
  • For instance, they treated the euro crisis as if it were a purely fiscal, i.e., budgetary, problem. But only Greece qualified as a genuine fiscal crisis. The rest of Europe suffered largely from banking problems and a divergence in competitiveness, which gave rise to balance of payments problems.
Gene Ellis

No ordinary recession: There is much to fear beyond fear itself | vox - 0 views

  • Richard Koo (2003) coined the term “balance sheet recession” to characterise the endless travail of Japan following the collapse of its real estate and stock market bubbles in 1990. The Japanese government did not act to repair the balance sheets of the private sector following the crash. Instead, it chose a policy of keeping bank rate near zero so as to reduce deposit rates and let the banks earn their way back into solvency. At the same time it supported the real sector by repeated large doses of Keynesian deficit spending. It took a decade and a half for these policies to bring the Japanese economy back to reasonable health.
  • At the time, a majority of forecasts predicted that the economy would slip back into depression once defence expenditures were terminated and the armed forces demobilised. The forecasts were wrong. This famous postwar “forecasting debacle” demonstrated how simple income-expenditure reasoning, ignoring the state of balance sheets, can lead one completely astray.
  • The lesson to be drawn from these two cases is that deficit spending will be absorbed into the financial sinkholes in private sector balance sheets and will not become effective until those holes have been filled.
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  • The present administration, like the last, would like to recapitalise the banks at least partly by attracting private capital. That can hardly be accomplished as long as the value of large chunks of the banks’ assets remains anybody’s guess.
  • When the entire private sector is bent on shortening its balance sheet and paying down debt, the public sector’s balance sheet must move in the opposite, offsetting direction. When the entire private sector is striving to save, the government must dis-save. The political obstacles to doing these things on a sufficient scale are formidable.
  • The Swedish policy following the 1992 crisis has been often referred to in recent months. Sweden acted quickly and decisively to close insolvent banks, and to quarantine their bad assets into a special fund.2 Eventually, all the assets, good and bad, ended up in the private banking sector again. The stockholders in the failed banks lost all their equity while the loss to taxpayers of the bad assets was minimal in the end. The operation was necessary to the recovery but what actually got the economy out of a very sharp and deep recession was the 25-30% devaluation of the krona which produced a long period of strong export-led growth.
  • So the private sector as a whole is bent on reducing debt.
  • Businesses will use depreciation charges and sell off inventories to do so. Households are trying once more to save. Less investment and more saving spell declining incomes.
  • now that they know how dangerous their leverage of yesteryear was.
  • Fiscal stimulus will not have much effect as long as the financial system is deleveraging.
  • er self-imposed constitutional balanced budget requirements and are consequently acting as powerful amplifiers of recession with respect to both income and employment.
  • Almost all American states now suffer und
Gene Ellis

A Declining Euro Can't Cure All Ills - WSJ.com - 0 views

  • but what would in normal times be a boon for the region may not help as much now, experts say.
  • Before the crisis, actions such as the European Central Bank rate cuts two weeks ago would have had a twofold effect in reviving the economy: Banks would have passed the lower rate on to their clients, while foreign-exchange markets would have marked the currency down, giving exporters better chances to sell their products abroad.
  • In today's polarized euro zone, it isn't that simple. For one thing, tThere is no certainty that euro-zone banks will pass on the cut in borrowing costs.
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  • Even if they did, he explained, the euro zone's problems are now so acute that few companies seem to want to borrow.
  • Mario Boselli, chairman of the Italian Chamber of Fashion, frets that larger emerging economies still account for only 10% of total Italian exports. "This is not enough" to offset the weakness in developed economies, he says.
  • Both Mr. Boselli and Philip Halpin, an adviser to the Irish Exporters' Association, say the euro would have to fall as low as $1.10 (from about $1.23 currently), to produce a robust export-led recovery.
  • Ludovic Subran, chief economist at French trade-credit insurer Euler Hermes, warns that might not be enough. Such a depreciation would have little effect in France because high taxes and rigid labor costs reduce the potential benefits, he says.
  • Any euro-zone economy would benefit from a drop in the euro to the extent that it can redirect more resources to external markets. But the willingness and ability of businesses to do that differs across the region. Nadio Delai, chairman of Italian research and consultancy firm Ermeneia, say a host of smaller, less prestigious Italian shoe and textile companies have started to export to emerging markets, riding the coattails of more famous names.
Gene Ellis

Colm McCarthy: The eurozone is still at risk and we need to get our house in order - An... - 0 views

  • Friday's two-notch downgrade of Italy by ratings agency Moody's explicitly mentions default risk and eurozone fracturing.
  • History teaches that muddle rather than conspiracy lies behind even the greatest turning points and the doubters are being too quick on the draw.
  • accompanied by some rowing back from the apparently significant decisions taken at the summit on June 28 and 29.
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  • These thoughts are spurred by the rather weak communique, which followed the meeting earlier last week of eurogroup finance ministers in Brussels,
  • There is, as yet, no mechanism in place to ensure bond market support to Spain and Italy and nobody, except the ECB, has the funds to keep their governments funded, should they be forced from the market. The ECB has suspended its bond-buying programme so the high-wire act continues, without a safety net.
  • The eurozone could face a major crisis at short notice if either country experiences serious trouble selling government paper, which both must do in large volume and on a continuing basis.
  • The avoidance of default on the core sovereign debt, the debt undertaken without duress by the Irish State, is a legitimate objective of national policy.
  • It had become clear, early in 2010, that the blanket bank guarantee would bankrupt the Irish State, and the Government finally began to acknowledge that haircuts for senior, but unsecured, bank bondholders had become unavoidable.
  • As far as I am aware, this is the first time in the history of central banking that a sovereign state has been compelled, to the point of national insolvency, and by its own central bank (by our Government's choice, the ECB), to make whole those who foolishly purchased bonds issued by private banks, which had gone bust and been closed down.
Gene Ellis

Investors Seek Yields in Europe, but Analysts Warn of Risk - NYTimes.com - 0 views

  • Investors Seek Yields in Europe, but Analysts Warn of Risk
  • Once again, foreign investors are piling into the government bonds of Ireland, Spain and Portugal — countries that got into such debt trouble that they required bailouts. Now these countries are able to sell their bonds at lower interest rates than they have seen in years, renewing hope that Europe has turned a corner.
  • Claus Vistesen, the head of research at Variant Perception, a London-based economic research group, sees the ratio of debt to economic output as a continuing threat to a euro zone recovery.“People think growth is coming back,” Mr. Vistesen said, “but at the end of the day, debt is still going up.”
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  • Despite the suddenly easier terms under which Ireland and other recovering euro zone countries can borrow, the fact remains: These countries are still mired in stagnation.
    • Gene Ellis
       
      Do the maths here:  1600 a week jobs being lost equals, what, just over 80,000 jobs a year?  1200 jobs a week now being created, that's what, a little over 60,000 a year?  We've had 5-6 years of recession, so how many years to get back to where we were?  And, of course, the population was growing...
  • “Sixteen hundred jobs a week were being lost before we took office; we’re now in a position where 1,200 jobs a week are being created, and our consumer confidence numbers have been steadily growing.”
  • For the euro zone at large, though, a step back often follows each step forward. France and Italy, the bloc’s second- and third-largest economies, are increasingly seen as the latest sick men of the Continent. Even Germany, the bloc’s powerhouse, grew only feebly last year, by 0.4 percent.
  • In Ireland, more than 80 percent of the investment came from abroad, with banks and pension funds making up 37 percent of the offering and fund managers about half.
  • Mr. Kirkegaard cited “the hunt for yield.”
Gene Ellis

U.S. Pressure Rises to End Bangladesh Trade Status - NYTimes.com - 0 views

  • Bangladesh’s garment sector represents roughly $19 billion in annual revenue and employs nearly four million workers, most of them women. It sells more than $4.5 billion worth of goods to the United States each year. 
Gene Ellis

General Electric Adds to Its 'Industrial Internet' - NYTimes.com - 0 views

  • “The rise of industrial big data is moving at twice the speed of other big data. That’s a great opportunity.” said William Ruh, the head of global software at G.E. “There’s all kinds of experiences that we’re going to create.”
  • The other is a kind of application software to help power companies figure out how to best build out and operate their turbines. By October, G.E. hopes to have similar applications out for railway, mining, and oil and gas companies.
  • Effectively, G.E. is taking the data-driven tools and strategies used by Google and Facebook to the much larger global economy.
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  • G.E. already manages more than 100 million data-gathering “tags” on its products, and foresees putting out far more than that while also collecting sensor data around the surrounding environment.
  • By 2020, GE figures, total spending on the Industrial Internet will be $23 billion. Better management of processes and understanding of systems will yield $1.279 trillion in value, the company said.
  • What G.E. does not yet have nailed is just how its new products will be used.
  • Cisco Systems is in the middle of an “Internet of Everyhing” strategy that involves selling software and services for a world rich in sensors. This is aimed more at things like traffic and water systems than manufacturing, however.
  • Phillips is also offering data-gathering connectivity in both its health care and lighting products, hoping to boost the efficiency of things like a patient’s medication adherence, or tuning lights
  • compliment
  • “Everybody knows they’ll need this technology, but they don’t know exactly what they’ll do with it yet,”
Gene Ellis

The Insourcing Boom - Charles Fishman - The Atlantic - 1 views

shared by Gene Ellis on 26 Jan 14 - No Cached
  • Both Bowman and Calvaruso knew something about “lean” manufacturing techniques—the style of factory management invented by Toyota whereby everyone has a say in critiquing and improving the way work gets done, with a focus on eliminating waste. Lean management is not a new concept, but outside of car making, it hasn’t caught on widely in the United States. It requires an open, collegial, and relentlessly self-critical mind-set among workers and bosses alike—a mind-set that is hard to create and sustain.
  • Levi Strauss used to have more than 60 domestic blue-jeans plants; today it contracts out work to 16 and owns none, and it’s hard to imagine mass-market clothing factories ever coming back in significant numbers—the work is too basic.
  • If the people who design dishwashers sit at their desks in one building, and the people who sell them to retailers and consumers sit at their desks in another building, and the people who make the dishwashers are in a different country and speak a different language—you never realize that the four screws should disappear, let alone come up with a way they can.
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  • All that said, big factories have a way of creating larger economies around them—they have a “multiplier effect,” in economic parlance
Gene Ellis

Eurozone crisis: can the centre hold? | Nouriel Roubini | Business | theguardian.com - 0 views

  • Several developments helped to restore calm. The European Central Bank (ECB) president, Mario Draghi, vowed to do "whatever it takes" to save the euro, and quickly institutionalised that pledge by establishing the ECB's "outright monetary transactions" programme to buy distressed eurozone members' sovereign bonds.
  • And, even if such adjustment is not occurring as fast as Germany and other core eurozone countries would like, they remain willing to provide financing, and governments committed to adjustment are still in power.
  • For starters, potential growth is still too low in most of the periphery, given ageing populations and low productivity growth, while actual growth – even once the periphery exits the recession, in 2014 – will remain below 1% for the next few years, implying that unemployment rates will remain very high.
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  • levels of private and public debt, domestic and foreign, are still too high, and continue to rise as a share of GDP, owing to slow or negative output growth. This means that the issue of medium-term sustainability remains unresolved.
  • At the same time, the loss of competitiveness has been only partly reversed, with most of the improvement in external balances being cyclical rather than structural.
  • The euro is still too strong, severely limiting the improvement in competitiveness that is needed to boost net exports in the face of weak domestic demand.
  • a continuing credit crunch, as undercapitalised banks deleverage by selling assets and shrinking their loan portfolios.
  • The larger problem, of course, is that progress toward banking, fiscal, economic and political union, all of which are essential to the eurozone's long-term viability, has been too slow.
  • all imply that banks will have to focus on raising capital at the expense of providing the financing needed for economic growth.
  • Moreover the ECB, in contrast to the Bank of England, is unwilling to be creative in pursuing policies that would ameliorate the credit crunch.
  • Meanwhile, austerity fatigue is rising in the eurozone periphery.
  • And bailout fatigue is emerging in the eurozone's core.
  • But the eurozone's political strains may soon reach a breaking point,
Gene Ellis

Why Do Americans Stink at Math? - NYTimes.com - 0 views

  • Why Do Americans Stink at Math?
  • The Americans might have invented the world’s best methods for teaching math to children, but it was difficult to find anyone actually using them.
  • In fact, efforts to introduce a better way of teaching math stretch back to the 1800s. The story is the same every time: a big, excited push, followed by mass confusion and then a return to conventional practices.
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  • Carefully taught, the assignments can help make math more concrete. Students don’t just memorize their times tables and addition facts but also understand how arithmetic works and how to apply it to real-life situations. But in practice, most teachers are unprepared and children are baffled, leaving parents furious.
  • On national tests, nearly two-thirds of fourth graders and eighth graders are not proficient in math. More than half of fourth graders taking the 2013 National Assessment of Educational Progress could not accurately read the temperature on a neatly drawn thermometer.
  • On the same multiple-choice test, three-quarters of fourth graders could not translate a simple word problem about a girl who sold 15 cups of lemonade on Saturday and twice as many on Sunday into the expression “15 + (2×15).” Even in Massachusetts, one of the country’s highest-performing states, math students are more than two years behind their counterparts in Shanghai.
  • A 2012 study comparing 16-to-65-year-olds in 20 countries found that Americans rank in the bottom five in numeracy.
  • On a scale of 1 to 5, 29 percent of them scored at Level 1 or below, meaning they could do basic arithmetic but not computations requiring two or more steps.
  • One study that examined medical prescriptions gone awry found that 17 percent of errors were caused by math mistakes on the part of doctors or pharmacists.
  • “I’m just not a math person,” Lampert says her education students would say with an apologetic shrug.
  • In the 1970s and the 1980s, cognitive scientists studied a population known as the unschooled, people with little or no formal education.
  • For instance, many of the workers charged with loading quarts and gallons of milk into crates had no more than a sixth-grade education. But they were able to do math, in order to assemble their loads efficiently, that was “equivalent to shifting between different base systems of numbers.”
  • Studies of children in Brazil, who helped support their families by roaming the streets selling roasted peanuts and coconuts, showed that the children routinely solved complex problems in their heads to calculate a bill or make change.
  • The cognitive-science research suggested a startling cause of Americans’ innumeracy: school.
  • The answer-getting strategies may serve them well for a class period of practice problems, but after a week, they forget. And students often can’t figure out how to apply the strategy for a particular problem to new problems.
  • In the process, she gave them an opportunity to realize, on their own, why their answers were wrong.
  • At most education schools, the professors with the research budgets and deanships have little interest in the science of teaching
  • Only when the company held customer focus groups did it become clear why. The Third Pounder presented the American public with a test in fractions. And we failed. Misunderstanding the value of one-third, customers believed they were being overcharged. Why, they asked the researchers, should they pay the same amount for a third of a pound of meat as they did for a quarter-pound of meat at McDonald’s. The “4” in “¼,” larger than the “3” in “⅓,” led them astray.
  • Some of the failure could be explained by active resistance.
  • A year after he got to Chicago, he went to a one-day conference of teachers and mathematicians and was perplexed by the fact that the gathering occurred only twice a year.
  • More distressing to Takahashi was that American teachers had almost no opportunities to watch one another teach.
  • In Japan, teachers had always depended on jugyokenkyu, which translates literally as “lesson study,” a set of practices that Japanese teachers use to hone their craft. A teacher first plans lessons, then teaches in front of an audience of students and other teachers along with at least one university observer. Then the observers talk with the teacher about what has just taken place. Each public lesson poses a hypothesis, a new idea about how to help children learn.
  • The research showed that Japanese students initiated the method for solving a problem in 40 percent of the lessons; Americans initiated 9 percent of the time.
  • Similarly, 96 percent of American students’ work fell into the category of “practice,” while Japanese students spent only 41 percent of their time practicing.
  • Finland, meanwhile, made the shift by carving out time for teachers to spend learning. There, as in Japan, teachers teach for 600 or fewer hours each school year, leaving them ample time to prepare, revise and learn. By contrast, American teachers spend nearly 1,100 hours with little feedback.
  • “Sit on a stone for three years to accomplish anything.”
  • In one experiment in which more than 200 American teachers took part in lesson study, student achievement rose, as did teachers’ math knowledge — two rare accomplishments.
  • Examining nearly 3,000 teachers in six school districts, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation recently found that nearly two-thirds scored less than “proficient” in the areas of “intellectual challenge” and “classroom discourse.”
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