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Bill Fulkerson

The misunderstood limits of folk science: an illusion of explanatory depth - 0 views

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    People feel they understand complex phenomena with far greater precision, coherence, and depth than they really do; they are subject to an illusion-an illusion of explanatory depth. The illusion is far stronger for explanatory knowledge than many other kinds of knowledge, such as that for facts, procedures or narratives. The illusion for explanatory knowledge is most robust where the environment supports real-time explanations with visible mechanisms. We demonstrate the illusion of depth with explanatory knowledge in Studies 1-6. Then we show differences in overconfidence about knowledge across different knowledge domains in Studies 7-10. Finally, we explore the mechanisms behind the initial confidence and behind overconfidence in Studies 11 and 12. Implications for the roles of intuitive theories in models of concepts and cognition are discussed.
Steve Bosserman

How to Convince a Conservative That Climate Change Is Real - Pacific Standard - 0 views

  • Not surprisingly, the research team led by Hunter Gehlbach of the University of California–Santa Barbara found that belief in science was higher than belief in climate science, and that this gap was widest among political conservatives.
  • "Climate change skeptics and believers are both motivated to hold attitudes that cohere with the social groups to which they belong, (such as) their political party," the researchers note. This social pressure could be counteracted by our strong desire to be internally consistent.
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