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Benno Hansen

Business Advice Plagued by Survivor Bias | Igniting Startups - nPost - 0 views

  • you want to learn from success, not hear about “lessons learned” from a guy who hasn’t yet learned those lessons himself
  • “survivor bias” — drawing conclusions only from data that is available or convenient and thus systematically biasing your results
  • When a published paper proclaims “statistically, this could only happen by chance one in twenty times,” it is quite possible that similar experiments have been performed twenty times, but have not been published.
  • ...2 more annotations...
  • what if twenty other coffee shops had the same ideas, same product, and same dedication as Starbucks, but failed? How does that affect what we can learn from Starbucks’s success?
  • prefer advice that makes you think and forces you to answer tough questions of yourself, not advice that simply tells you to march in a certain direction
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