Hedging sanctions risk: Cryptocurrency in central bank reserves - 0 views
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John Kiff on 27 Nov 22A paper by the Harvard University's Matthew Ferranti explores the potential for Bitcoin to serve as an alternative central bank reserve currency asset to ex-ante hedge against the risk of financial sanctions. It uses a dynamic Bayesian copula model to simulate the joint returns of Bitcoin and other reserve assets under a wide range of plausible sanctions probabilities. Assuming mean-variance preferences, a modest risk of sanctions significantly increases optimal gold and Bitcoin allocations. If a central bank cannot acquire sufficient physical gold to hedge its sanctions risk, the optimal Bitcoin share rises further, suggesting that gold and Bitcoin are imperfect substitutes. It concludes that sanctions risk may diminish the appeal of US Treasuries, propel broader diversification in central bank reserves, and bolster the long-run fundamental value of both cryptocurrency and gold.