Financial Crisis and Geopolitics

The fundamental problem that much of the world faces today is that investors are overreacting to debt-to-GDP ratios, fearful of some magic threshold, and demanding fiscal-austerity programs too soon. They are asking governments to cut expenditure while their economies are still vulnerable. Households are running scared, so they cut expenditures as well, and businesses are being dissuaded from borrowing to finance capital expenditures. The lesson is simple: We should worry less about debt ratios and thresholds, and more about our inability to see these indicators for the artificial - and often irrelevant - constructs that they are.

Without an expansionary fiscal policy, low interest rates have little effect. Companies won't borrow in order to expand and hire more workers unless they have reasonable certainty they'll have customers for what they produce. And consumers won't borrow money to spend on goods and services unless they're reasonably confident they'll have jobs. Fiscal austerity is the wrong medicine at the wrong time.

Imagine a world in which a man who is repeatedly investigated for a string of serious crimes, but never prosecuted, has his slate wiped clean every time the cops fail to make a case. No more Lifetime channel specials where the murderer is unveiled after police stumble upon past intrigues in some old file - "Hey, chief, didja know this guy had two wives die falling down the stairs?" No more burglary sprees cracked when some sharp cop sees the same name pop up in one too many witness statements. This is a different world, one far friendlier to lawbreakers, where even the suspicion of wrongdoing gets wiped from the record.

The most dangerous myth, and one repeated daily in much of the major media, is that these troubles on both sides of the Atlantic are a result of a "debt crisis", and can only be resolved through fiscal tightening. The United States is not facing any public debt crisis at all, with interest payments on the debt at just 1.4% of GDP. Some eurozone countries do have a "debt crisis" - for example, Greece. But this is only because the European authorities have failed to take the necessary steps to resolve it, and have, instead, made it worse by shrinking the economy. In other words, there is no legitimate economic reason for a sovereign debt burden - even an unsustainable one - to result in years of economic stagnation and high unemployment. If the debt needs to be restructured because it is not payable, as in Greece, then that should be done as quickly as possible and with enough debt cancellation to make the resulting debt burden sustainable - as Argentina did with its successful default in 2001.

The blazing infernos which took hold in the UK's biggest cities have shocked British society. It wasn't a desire to protest that drove the brutal looters onto the streets, but pure consumer greed. Bankers, politicians and media moguls have made this greed socially acceptable. Education grants for children from low-income families - abolished. Also abolished in many areas were youth centers and help centers for the unemployed and pregnant. In the Lewisham area alone, five libraries were closed. What happens next? Where does it end? What is the limit? There is none. In the London borough of Haringey, which includes Tottenham, 75 percent of funding for youth services will be cut over the next three years. This miserable life of drugs, loitering and weapons in neighborhoods which were devastated by the policies of Margaret Thatcher in the 1980s and never fixed by Tony Blair or Gordon Brown, is the fate of those dubbed "NEETs" in the UK. It stands for "not in education, employment or training", and there are about 1.2 million people who fit the description. They rule their local areas under the law of the jungle, with a deep sense of uselessness in a world where almost every recreational activity costs money; money which they don't have.

Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman employed a bit of imagination while discussing the need for fiscal stimulus on Fareed Zakaria's "GPS" last week, playfully suggesting that the discovery of an impending alien attack would force the American Congress to shelve debates about inflation and budget deficits and spend at a rate that would end the current recession in a year and a half. "If we discovered that, you know, space aliens were planning to attack and we needed a massive buildup to counter the space alien threat, and really, inflation and budget deficits took secondary place to that, this slump would be over in 18 months," he mused. "And then if we discovered, 'Whoops! We made a mistake. There aren't actually any space aliens ...' " the spending would leave us better off. "There was a 'Twilight Zone' episode like this in which scientists fake an alien threat in order to achieve world peace," he added. "Well, this time, we don't need it, we need it in order to get some fiscal stimulus." -ARK

A new study by Northwestern University economists, called The "Jobless and Wageless" Recovery from the Great Recession of 2007-2009," found that the economic recovery is highly uneven: corporate profits captured 88 percent of the growth in real national income while aggregate wages and salaries accounted for only slightly more than one percent. In other words, the average American worker has been left behind by the recovery, which officially began in June 2009. "The economic recovery through 2011 I has failed to create any net new jobs since the quarter marking the end of the recession in 2009 II

Os conservadores lançaram um ataque brutal às pessoas desempregadas para desviar as críticas dos verdadeiros parasitas: os ricos. Na semana passada, o governo anunciou que os desempregados que solicitam auxílio deverão realizar trabalhos não remunerados: caso se neguem a fazê-lo, perderão o subsídio. Os chefes e a imprensa da direita estão encantados. O Daily Mail anunciou com alegria: "Em uma nova ofensiva contra os parasitas sociais, os desempregados irresponsáveis terão que participar de um programa de trabalho exigente, estilo EUA, que incluirá a obrigação de realizar trabalhos de jardinagem, limpeza de lixo e outras tarefas manuais por apenas 1 libra a hora".

Systems collapse when the irrational is considered rational.

AFTER months of speculation over whether the Arab spring would spread to the Palestinians, it has spread, in a way, to the Israelis. Rothschild Boulevard, a pleasant, leafy thoroughfare that meanders through Tel Aviv, with offices and commodious flats on either side, has oddly become a colourful encampment, seething with talk of people-power and social revolution. The tent-dwellers, a mixed bunch but with a preponderance of young, educated, middle-class families, are demanding-above all-affordable housing. Their protest, now into its third week, has sparked sleep-outs and demonstrations around the country. The movement seems to be growing daily, despite the torrid summer heat.

It has been three decades since the United States suffered a recession that followed on the heels of the previous one. But it could be happening again. The unrelenting negative economic news of the past two weeks has painted a picture of a United States economy that fell further and recovered less than we had thought.

Despite the financing challenges, Argentina's economy has grown by more than 8 percent a year since 2003, and many industries have benefited from the devaluation. Argentina has resumed exporting cars to Brazil. Tourism has flourished from an influx of Brazilians and other foreigners. In the end, Argentina may have one more lesson to teach Greece: the danger of fatalism. "A lot of people were saying that Argentina would never recover, that the peso would never regain value, that this country was damned," said Mr. Kerner, the analyst. "And it didn't happen."

Chancellor Angela Merkel's ruling coalition was seriously weakened last night after her party suffered a humiliating defeat in a key regional state election which was certain to deprive her government of its crucial working majority in Germany's upper house of parliament.

Spain's PM has outlined a plan to tackle the country's budget crisis, amid concerns that problems afflicting Greece may spread across the eurozone.

Trading derivatives on regulated exchanges would be a major step forward, but it may no longer be enough. Economic bubbles are not recognized by those inside of them, the Congress of the united States being no exception. The $604.6 trillion derivatives bubble, which is equal to more than ten times world GDP, is a global issue. If existing OTC derivatives remain in place and there are no restrictions on what banks can trade derivatives, there is no actual or immediate reduction of systemic risk. Thus, the risks that led to the financial crisis in 2008 are likely to remain present in the global financial system for years to come. In fact, many banks have more CDS risk now than in 2008. Passing a bank-approved version of the financial reform bill, while it may be portrayed as a political victory or serve to calm financial markets temporarily, is unlikely to prevent another global financial crisis.

After a nearly $1 trillion rescue package meant to end Europe's debt crisis once and for all, financial markets took a second look Friday and began to worry about how the plan would actually work and the implications of the drastic austerity measures for the fragile European economies.

The Portuguese government Thursday followed Spain's lead in agreeing with the main opposition party on more austerity measures to cut the deficit faster than planned, to 4.6 percent of gross domestic product next year from 9.4 percent last year.

Greece will unlikely be able to pay off its nearly 300 billion euro debt, but the rescue package will enable it to hold out for a few more years, according to Heinemann. "In the end, there will be a restructuring of Greece's debt… but in the meantime before that happens, other countries will make such progress that the danger of a meltdown will no longer exist," he told Deutsche Welle. "This means maybe in 2012 a restructuring of Greece's debt can be undertaken without shock waves being triggered."

The audacious bid to protect the euro with a massive rescue fund seems to be faltering. The euro is still losing value as investors worry about the consequences of tough austerity measures. German papers on Friday dissect the common currency's ongoing problems.

French president Nicolas Sarkozy warned of damage to Franco-German relationship if Angela Merkel opposed EU plan