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Giorgio Bertini

Derivatives Cloud the Possible Fallout From a Greek Default « Learning Politi... - 0 views

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    In years past, when financial crises in Argentina and Russia left those countries unable to make good on their government debts, they simply defaulted. But this time around, swaps and other sorts of contracts have become so common and so intertwined in the financial markets that there are fears among regulators and financial players about how a Greek default would play out among derivatives holders. No one seems to be sure, in large part because the world of derivatives is so murky. But the possibility that some company out there may have insured billions of dollars of European debt has added a new tension to the sovereign default debate.
Giorgio Bertini

America's role in this Greek tragedy « Learning Political Economy - 0 views

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    Greece faces unacceptable conditions for a new bailout. If it defaults, the US had better be ready for the economic shock. The European authorities are playing a dangerous game of "chicken" with Greece right now. It is overdue for US members of Congress to exercise some oversight as to what our government's role is in this process, and how we might be preparing for a Greek debt default. Depending on how it happens, this default could have serious repercussions for the international financial system, the US economy and, indeed, the world economy.
Giorgio Bertini

As Greece Ponders Default, Lessons From Argentina « Learning Political Economy - 0 views

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    Despite the financing challenges, Argentina's economy has grown by more than 8 percent a year since 2003, and many industries have benefited from the devaluation. Argentina has resumed exporting cars to Brazil. Tourism has flourished from an influx of Brazilians and other foreigners. In the end, Argentina may have one more lesson to teach Greece: the danger of fatalism. "A lot of people were saying that Argentina would never recover, that the peso would never regain value, that this country was damned," said Mr. Kerner, the analyst. "And it didn't happen."
thinkahol *

"Captured Europe" by Simon Johnson | Project Syndicate - 0 views

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    The Greek default has turned out to be the proverbial dog that didn't bark. The lesson for Europe - and for the US - is clear: it is time to stop listening to what banks say, and start focusing on what they do. We must re-evaluate the distorted political economy of the financial sector, before the excessive power of the few imposes even larger costs on everyone else.
Ride Harry

Fix up Urgent Cash Difficulties with Ease - 0 views

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Giorgio Bertini

Analysis - The eurozone's troubles pose serious and widespread global risks - 0 views

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    In their recent book on the history of financial crises, Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff note that banking crises are frequently succeeded by sovereign debt crises, as governments are forced to assume private liabilities to keep their national financial systems afloat. The 1997-98 Asian crisis provides a relatively recent example of how private debts can rapidly become public liabilities if a default threatens the overall economy.
thinkahol *

The Spanish Prisoner - NYTimes.com - 0 views

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    What's striking about Spain, from an American perspective, is how much its economic story resembles our own. Like America, Spain experienced a huge property bubble, accompanied by a huge rise in private-sector debt. Like America, Spain fell into recession when that bubble burst, and has experienced a surge in unemployment. And like America, Spain has seen its budget deficit balloon thanks to plunging revenues and recession-related costs. But unlike America, Spain is on the edge of a debt crisis. The U.S. government is having no trouble financing its deficit, with interest rates on long-term federal debt under 3 percent. Spain, by contrast, has seen its borrowing cost shoot up in recent weeks, reflecting growing fears of a possible future default. Why is Spain in so much trouble? In a word, it's the euro.
Giorgio Bertini

The Next Global Problem: Portugal - 0 views

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    Europe will eventually grow tired of bailing out its weaker countries. The Germans will probably pull that plug first. The longer we wait to see fiscal probity established, at the European Central Bank and the European Union, and within each nation, the more debt will be built up, and the more dangerous the situation will get. When the plug is finally pulled, at least one nation will end up in a painful default; unfortunately, the way we are heading, the problems could be even more widespread.
thinkahol *

Chinese agency downgrades U.S. credit rating - CNN.com - 0 views

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    Beijing (CNN) -- Although the United States narrowly avoided an unprecedented default following congressional approval of a last-minute compromise plan to raise the debt ceiling, China's leading credit rating agency Wednesday downgraded U.S. sovereign debt after putting it on negative watch last month. The Dagong Global Credit Rating Company, which lowered the United States to A+ last November after the U.S. Federal Reserve decided to continue loosening its monetary policy, announced a further downgrade to A, indicating heightened doubts over Washington's long-term ability to repay its debts.
Giorgio Bertini

This disastrous 'debt crisis' myth « Learning Political Economy - 0 views

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    The most dangerous myth, and one repeated daily in much of the major media, is that these troubles on both sides of the Atlantic are a result of a "debt crisis", and can only be resolved through fiscal tightening. The United States is not facing any public debt crisis at all, with interest payments on the debt at just 1.4% of GDP. Some eurozone countries do have a "debt crisis" - for example, Greece. But this is only because the European authorities have failed to take the necessary steps to resolve it, and have, instead, made it worse by shrinking the economy. In other words, there is no legitimate economic reason for a sovereign debt burden - even an unsustainable one - to result in years of economic stagnation and high unemployment. If the debt needs to be restructured because it is not payable, as in Greece, then that should be done as quickly as possible and with enough debt cancellation to make the resulting debt burden sustainable - as Argentina did with its successful default in 2001.
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