FT.com / Comment / Opinion - It is folly to place all our trust in the Fed - 0 views
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I n certain circles, it has become fashionable to argue that monetary policy is a superior instrument to fiscal policy - more predictable, faster, without the adverse long-term consequences brought on by greater indebtedness. Indeed, some advocates wax so enthusiastic that they support recent drives for austerity in many European countries, arguing that if there are untoward effects they can be undone by monetary policy. Whatever the merits of this position in general, it is nonsense in current economic circumstances.
FT.com / Comment / Opinion - Ireland should leave the euro - 0 views
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Ireland's government has avoided immediate disaster by mustering just enough votes to pass its emergency budget. But now it must decide what to do next. Here, €6bn ($9.4bn) in new austerity measures are unlikely to be enough to put it back on the right path. Instead a more radical option should be seriously considered: leaving the euro.
German Government 'Must Stop Using Greek Crisis for Campaign Fodder' - 0 views
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As the financial crisis in the euro zone worsens and the heads of the IMF and the ECB come to Berlin to persuade Germany to help Greece now, local commentators are calling for speed and decisiveness. As they see it, political jockeying before the May 9 election in North Rhine-Westphalia is no reason for German politicians to endanger the whole euro zone.
Commodity Prices and the Mistake of 1937: Would Modern Economists Make the Same Mistake... - 1 views
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In 1937, on the eve of a major policy mistake, U.S. economic conditions were surprisingly similar to those in the nation today. Consider, for example, the following summary of economic conditions: (1) Signs indicate that the recession is finally over. (2) Short-term interest rates have been close to zero for years but are now expected to rise. (3) Some are concerned about excessive inflation. (4) Inflation concerns are partly driven by a large expansion in the monetary base in recent years and by banks' massive holding of excess reserves. (5) Furthermore, some are worried that the recent rally in commodity prices threatens to ignite an inflation spiral. While this summary arguably describes current trends, it is taken from an account of conditions in 1937 that appears in "The Mistake of 1937: A General Equilibrium Analysis," an article I coauthored with Benjamin Pugsley. What we call "the Mistake of 1937" was, in broad terms, a decision by the Fed and the administration to implement a series of contractionary policies that choked off the recovery of 1933-37 and brought on the recession of 1937-38, one of the worst on record. What is particularly noteworthy is that the inflation fears that triggered the Mistake of 1937 were largely driven by a rally in commodity prices. These circumstances invite direct comparison with our own time, when a substantial recent rise in commodity prices (which now seems to be abating somewhat) stoked inflation fears and led some commentators to call for an increase in the federal funds rate. The question for the contemporary reader is this: If we could transport a modern-day economist back to 1937, would he or she have made the same mistake? My suggested answer-admittedly somewhat hopeful-is no. I base this view on the fact that most economists today distinguish between the temporary movements in the consumer price index that stem from volatility in commodity prices and the movements that reflect fundamental inf
What to do when you've got money in the bank and you're worried about a dollar collapse... - 0 views
The Importance of the 1970s « The Baseline Scenario - 0 views
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One of the singular victories of the rich has been convincing the rest of us that their disproportionate success has been due to abstract economic forces beyond anyone’s control (technology, globalization, etc.), not old-fashioned power politics. Hopefully the financial crisis and the recession that has ended only on paper (if that) will provide the opportunity to teach people that there is no such thing as abstract economic forces; instead, there are different groups using the political system to fight for larger shares of society’s wealth. And one group has been winning for over thirty years.
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One of the singular victories of the rich has been convincing the rest of us that their disproportionate success has been due to abstract economic forces beyond anyone's control (technology, globalization, etc.), not old-fashioned power politics. Hopefully the financial crisis and the recession that has ended only on paper (if that) will provide the opportunity to teach people that there is no such thing as abstract economic forces; instead, there are different groups using the political system to fight for larger shares of society's wealth. And one group has been winning for over thirty years.
World power swings back to America - Telegraph - 0 views
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The switch in advantage to the US is relative. It does not imply a healthy US recovery. The global depression will grind on as much of the Western world tightens fiscal policy and slowly purges debt, and as China deflates its credit bubble.
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