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EU trade commissioner Peter Mandelson has urged Irish farmers to refrain from linking next month's vote on the Lisbon Treaty to ongoing world trade talks. "I don't think the Doha talks should get mixed up with the Lisbon Treaty or any referendum on it. Rejecting the treaty would not be in Ireland's interests, it wouldn't be in Europe's interests," said Mr Mandelson on Tuesday (6 May).

The Irish Farmers Association (IFA) has delivered up the threat of a No vote in next month's referendum to both the commissioner and the Irish government if their interests are not defended in the talks.

The ratification process for the new Treaty gained momentum yesterday (24 April) as the Danish and Austrian parliaments approved the text, which also easily passed Germany's lower House. The votes in Vienna and Copenhagen mean the Treaty has now been adopted in 11 out of 27 countries.

For the Treaty to enter into force, all 27 member states have to ratify it. Ahead of Austria and Denmark, nine countries had already given their approval to the next, namely Poland, Slovakia, Bulgaria, France, Hungary, Malta, Romania, Slovenia and Portugal. Ireland is set to be the only country to hold a referendum on the Treaty, which is scheduled for 12 June. 

The EU ship of state has just been holed just above the waterline. While it is unlikely to sink, it could take in water, start listing, and eventually become very difficult to steer.

One of the biggest losers in the wake of the Irish referendum will be the EU's enlargement plans, insofar as they have existed. Pierre Moscovici, one of the leaders of the French opposition Socialist Party and a former Europe Minister, made that point in Paris on June 9. "I think that globally, an Irish 'no' would mean that the European Union would no longer be in a position to pursue further its policy of enlargement," Moscovici said. "For institutional reasons in the first place, because the Treaty of Nice -- I know this, because I was one its negotiators -- is designed for up to 28 [member states]. After that, we'll be in 'no man's land.'" Of the current candidates, only Croatia would be guaranteed entry under existing rules.

In the aftermath of the Irish 'no' to the Lisbon Treaty, European institutions are yet again confronted with their failure to communicate the benefits of Europe with citizens, Commission Vice-President Margot Wallström and Parliament Vice President Alejo Vidal-Quadras told EurActiv on two separate occasions.

The Commission Vice President also stressed the role of new technologies. “In France, people suddenly realised the importance of the internet during the [French 2005] referendum. I'll keep talking about using the internet more, but traditional leaders are used to traditional channels."

Goulard also called on Irish politicians to face up to "their responsibilities" by coming up with solutions to the crisis. "We are again witnessing an amalgam where critics say Brussels irritates, that people do not want Europe, when in fact the people responsible for this slip are rather to be found in the national capitals." "We had a prime minister who said he had not read the treaty, an Irish European commissioner who said the same," she pointed out. And if Irish voters were being made to believe that the treaty influences Ireland's sovereignty on abortion, defence or tax policy, it is because Irish politicians failed to explain the text properly, which was considered by voters to be too complex. "These issues were not considered in the treaty," Goulard points out. "We can therefore measure how much the Irish political class failed in its mission to explain [the treaty]."

Ireland's biggest farmers' group on Tuesday (3 June) said it would encourage its members to vote in favour of the EU Lisbon treaty in a referendum on 12 June, with the decision expected to boost the "yes" side's result.

The IFA decision is seen as crucial, as polls have been indicating a narrow gap between the "yes" and "no" supporters, and the agricultural sector is still an important part of Irish society. The IFA represents 85,000 farming families engaged in agricultural activity. The farmers' backing came after Irish prime minister Brian Cowen indicated he would veto EU approval of any world trade deal that would go against their interests.

The Polish president, Lech Kaczynski, has indicated he will not sign the Lisbon treaty until Ireland gets over its No vote, dealing a strong blow to EU attempts to revive the pact. German ratification also went on hold Monday (30 June), pending a Constitutional Court decision early next year.

"The principle of unanimity is binding here," he added, explaining that Poland must protect small EU countries' rights as it is not a major power itself. "If the principle of unanimity is broken once it will cease to exist forever. We are too weak to accept this kind of solution."

The Polish parliament passed the treaty in April, but Mr Kaczynski must now sign a Ratification Act to finalise the process. The president told Dziennik his general approach to EU diplomacy is to give Poland more clout by protecting national interests at every turn. "My politics is a way to make sure the telephone number of the Polish president or prime minister is frequently used by Berlin, Paris, London or other capitals," he said.

The Czech government has advised the country's Constitutional Court that the EU's Lisbon treaty does not violate the Czech Republic's own constitution, improving the climate for ratification in the most problematic EU state after the Irish No vote.

Analysts expect the EU treaty to get through the 200-seat lower house. But the eurosceptic ODS party, many of whose members say Lisbon is dead after the Irish referendum, holds a 41-strong majority in the 81-seat upper house. The Czech president, Vaclav Klaus - an outspoken enemy of Lisbon - must also sign the text to make it law. The largely honorary office of the Czech president would find it hard to block a parliamentary decision in practice, however.

Ratification map France, Germany and the European Commission have called for ratification to continue despite the Irish No, pointing to a scenario in which Ireland stands isolated against 26 EU states and faces pressure for a re-vote, as occured with the 2001 Nice treaty referendum. Sixteen EU states have so far definitively ratified Lisbon. The Finnish, Polish and German parliaments have approved the text, but are awaiting their presidents' signatures. The Swedish, Dutch, Belgian, Italian, Spanish, and Cypriot legislatures will finish voting between July and the autumn. The Czech Republic is not the only problem country left, with the Polish president's office questioning whether the treaty still legally exists and the German constitutional court considering a legal challenge. Austrian leader Alfred Gusenbauer last week said he would also call a referendum if Lisbon is tweaked for a second Irish vote.

For the first time since the failed referendum on the Lisbon Treaty in Ireland, France has hinted at the possibility of reopening the text to address specific concerns that the Irish may have. A clearer picture could emerge following a fact-finding mission to Dublin by the French EU Presidency on 11 July.

"Then it will become clear if there is a need to reopen or not to reopen the Treaty," he said. 

After the Irish rejection featured in several diverse discussions throughout this week's plenary session in Strasbourg, the assembly held a debate dedicated exclusively to the issue on Wednesday (18 June).

With all eyes on the EU leaders' summit in Brussels on Thursday, Janez Lenarcic, secretary of state for European affairs for Slovenia, currently chairing the 27-strong bloc, told MEPs that the continued ratification of the treaty looks likely to be supported by all participants at the top-level meeting. "The presidency has held talks with countries which have not yet ratified the treaty, and it is quite encouraging to see that those countries are ready to continue the ratification process," said Mr Lenarcic. The same approach was advocated by the European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso, who argued that the energy the EU had put in to drawing up its internal reform "cannot go to waste."

A pro-EU constitution gathering in Madrid has called for a revised version of the charter to not go "below" the existing compromise, while expressing "frustration" at the lack of alternative solutions put forward by countries that have failed to ratify it. The EU constitution as it stands is "the result of complex and difficult negotiations" which reflects "delicate balances bringing together diverse political, social, economic and legal interests," stated delegates from the 18 countries that have already ratified the charter plus Ireland and Portugal on Friday (26 January).

In a speech to open the 'Friends of EU constitution' meeting in Madrid, Spain's foreign minister Miguel Angel Moratinos argued that any revised treaty should be extended to include more European objectives rather than pared down to just institutional reforms. Delegates from the 18 countries that have ratified the EU constitution plus its strong supporters - Ireland and Portugal - have gathered in a cultural centre - usually used for hosting events related to Latin America - to outline their positions on the future of the European treaty.

Iceland's government submitted a proposal to parliament on 25 May to authorise the start of negotiations for membership of the European Union. Analysts say the country's accession talks could be finished in 12 months.

Background: Iceland was hit severely by the economic downturn. Prior to its meltdown, Iceland's banking-sector assets had grown from about 96% of GDP in 2000 to about 800% by the end of 2006, and were worth around 10 times its GDP on the eve of the crisis.  But late last year the country received a $10 billion financial rescue package led by the International Monetary Fund.  Iceland's centre-right government collapsed in January following the country's bankruptcy as a result of the global financial turmoil. Since then, the country has been governed by a centre-left coalition under interim Prime Minister Johanna Sigurdardottir.  As Croatia's EU accession bid continues to stall, Brussels has indicated that Iceland is welcome to apply for membership, providing a piggy-back for amendments to the Lisbon Treaty promised to Ireland in the hope of obtaining a positive result in the second referendum on the text, planned for October (EurActiv 30/01/09). 

Support for negotiations on EU membership, and ultimately adopting the euro currency, has risen following the economic meltdown that ensued after Iceland's banks all collapsed under the weight of massive debts.  Finance Minister and Left-Green leader Steingrimur Sigfusson has said he would not oppose the proposal, and Icelandic media have speculated about half of the party could vote in favour. 

The Czech Senate on Wednesday (6 May) approved the EU's Treaty of Lisbon, a move that was greeted with relief in Brussels and that ups the pressure on Ireland, facing its second referendum on the document. Fifty-four of the 79 senators voted in favour of the new institutional rules, which introduce an EU foreign minister, a permanent president of the European Council and widely extend the powers of the European Parliament. The lower house passed the document in February.

For the ratification process to be completed, the treaty still has to be signed by the country's eurosceptic president, Vaclav Klaus. He has previously indicated he would not sign it no matter what the outcome of the parliamentary votes. In a reference to Mr Klaus, the commission president said he hoped the remaining "constitutional requirements" would be completed as quickly as possible.

The minister was responding to a series of questions from euro-deputies in the constitutional committee on how the Lisbon treaty – which faces a referendum in Ireland on 2 October and final approval in three other countries – should function in practice.

With just over a week to go before Sweden takes over the helm of the EU's six-month rotating presidency, the country's foreign minister, Carl Bildt, has made it clear he does not intend to waste time attempting to unblock the many bilateral disputes that currently pepper the EU's diplomatic landscape.

One area where he appears to be more optimistic for a quick solution is the future status of Iceland which – depending on an upcoming parliamentary debate – may submit an application in the coming months to join the EU.

Sweden's European affairs minister and former MEP, Cecilia Malmstrom, speaking alongside her colleague, said she is under no illusion the next six months are going to be easy and that the presidency's main priorities will be to deal with negotiations in the lead up to the United Nations climate change conference in Copenhagen in December and the economic crisis.

The bulk of the six proceedings challenging the compatibility of Lisbon Treaty and the German Constitution initiated by the conservative MP Peter Gauweiler and a number of left-wing deputies from Die Linke, revolves around the question of whether the Lisbon Treaty erodes the German parliament's powers of participation in EU decision making.

National parliaments and the Lisbon Treaty Under the Lisbon Treaty, national parliaments are involved in the EU's policy formulation process by safeguarding the subsidiarity principle. It is essentially a consultation mechanism operating before the onset of the EU decision-making procedure and is applicable only where competences are shared between the EU and the Member States.

Three final remarks suffice. First, both chambers of the German parliament have approved the Lisbon Treaty and have therefore made use of what the Federal Constitutional Court has deemed in its Maastricht judgment a key means of ensuring a democratic character of the Union and of Germany's membership in it. Second, much of the academic literature, as well as an empirical inquiry recently conducted at Utrecht University, have shown that the Bundestag, unlike the Bundesrat, is quite passive in using the available tools of influencing Union's policies and laws. Third, the outcome of the pending Lisbon Treaty cases is of prime importance not only for Germany but for the whole of the EU and its relevance transcends the remaining ratification procedures in Ireland, Poland and the Czech Republic. This is not least because the "sale of the state's vital powers" is at stake, as Prof. Klaus Buchner one of the complainants said. It has all the ingredients to become the most influential pronouncement that the German Federal Constitutional Court has ever made regarding the EU.