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In theory the European Union is horrified at the prospect of the Radical Party of Serbia (Srpska radikalna stranka, SRS) becoming not only the strongest party in the country’s parliament — which it already is — but also the majority partner in a new ruling coalition after the general election on May 11. In practice, the EU officials in Brussels and in Kosovo are acting as if this is the outcome they earnestly desire.

Kosovo is set to seek "clear signals" on its eventual membership prospects as early as next week's meeting EU foreign ministers in Luxembourg (28-29 April) - something that could cause a political headache, given that a number of EU member states refuse to recognise the infant country. Cyprus, Greece, Romania, Spain and Slovakia are seen as most reluctant to approve Kosovo's unilateral move towards independence.

EU foreign ministers are next week also due to discuss Serbia's EU bid, currently hanging by a thread.

According to EU diplomats, the Netherlands is under pressure from other EU countries to drop its opposition to the signing of a pre-accession Stabilisation and Association Agreement (SAA) with Serbia, in a bid to boost the pro-European camp ahead of the parliamentary elections on 11 May.

The Netherlands objects to signing the SAA with Serbia if Belgrade does not "fully cooperate" with the International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia (ICTY). The conditions include the handover of General Ratko Mladic and former political leader Radovan Karadzic to the Hague tribunal of war criminals. Serbia denies both men are on its territory. 

The Dutch position can be partly explained by the fact the country is hosting the ICTY. But it is also due to bad memories from the recent past. The Srebrenica massacre in Bosnia in 1995, when an estimated 8,000 Bosniak men and boys were killed by the army of Republika Srpska and other paramilitary units, took place despite the presence of 400 armed Dutch peacekeepers in the area.

The European Union is racing against time -- and some of its own member states -- to create incentives for Serbian voters to choose a Western future when they go to the polls for parliamentary elections on May 11. The EU, whose image was tarnished in the eyes of many Serbs when most members backed Kosovo's independence, is dangling the prospect of future membership to Serbia. But Brussels is struggling to give the offer a definitive shape. The main problems boil down to two names and one abbreviation -- Kosovo, Mladic, and an SAA.

Wish List The speaker of the Serbian parliament, Oliver Dulic, who was in Brussels last week, handed the European Parliament's Foreign Affairs Committee a detailed wish list. The pro-European politicians whom Dulic represents want the EU to sign an SAA with Serbia by the end of this month, give it candidate status by the end of the year, ease visa restrictions by early 2009, and launch accession talks with Serbia in the second half of 2009. Dulic says such tangible offers could sway Serbian voters on May 11. He said the EU must err on the side of generosity, if anything, to compensate for a feeling in Serbia that the country is always fated to get the sharp end of the stick.

Macedonia says it is ready to open EU accession talks in the second half of this year and has taken steps to reassure Brussels over violent incidents that marred the country's recent elections.

Despite the incidents, the minister stressed that his country felt ready to open EU accession negotiations and was hoping for this to happen this year. "Macedonia is aware that we will not be prepared by tomorrow to become a member of the EU, but we feel prepared tomorrow to open accession negotiations over EU membership," he said.

Macedonia's preferred timing coincides with France's presidency of the EU, which is to start on 1 July and will last until the end of the year. But French President Nicolas Sarkozy has clearly stated that he supports Greece in a 17-year-old name row over Macedonia's name - something that may eventually prove problematic for Skopje's EU bid.

Polish President Lech Kaczynski on Tuesday (1 July) toned down his rhetoric against the Lisbon treaty, with the French EU presidency also downplaying the mini-crisis and analysts saying Mr Kaczynski's stance is a bargaining tool for foreign policy concessions.

Mr Kaczynski is fighting to win oversight powers on Polish government behaviour in EU negotiations and to get government approval to host a US missile shield. The Lisbon row also generates momentum for his flagging conservative opposition party, as campaigning slowly begins for the 2009 European Parliament elections. "If Lech Kaczynski signs the treaty it will be a victory for [Polish liberal Prime Minister Donald] Tusk. So the president wants his own victory by winning concessions from the liberals," Polish Institute of Political Sciences analyst Kazimierz Kik told AFP.

The EU is unlikely to agree concrete solutions to the institutional impasse created by the Irish rejection of the Lisbon Treaty before the end of the year, the bloc's initial discussion on the issue has shown.

French President Nicolas Sarkozy noted that while there may be no set calendar, as "pressure should not be put on a country, everyone knows that there is a deadline and that is the next European elections."

On Friday, EU leaders are to agree a political statement on the situation expected to say that they respect the outcome of the Irish vote and that time be given to Dublin to find a solution. Whether it will suggest in black and white that ratification should continue is still unclear, due to Czech resistance.

The various and often conflicting groups that made up the multi-headed No campaign in Ireland want any European institutional interpretation of why Irish people voted the way they did to take on board their key demands. The groups, particularly those on the left, are worried that European leaders are already cooking up protocols on "non-institutional issues" that can be bolted on to the treaty to ensure its passage in a possible second referendum.

"A couple of protocols, whether on neutrality or taxes is not enough because the very heart of the Lisbon Treaty will not have been changed in any way," said Patricia McKenna, a former Green MEP for Ireland and leader of the People's Movement, one of the main No campaign groups.

On the weekend, the European commission organised a 'flash' poll of 2000 Irish voters to find out the reasons behind their vote. According to the Irish Independent, more than 70 percent of those who voted No did so because they thought the treaty could be renegotiated. The unreleased survey also found that many people who do not normally vote in elections turned out this time, that people who said they did not understand the treaty tended to vote No; and that increased immigration played a role in the No vote.

Slovenia, currently at the helm of the European Union, is set to push for signature of the Stabilisation and Association Agreement (SAA) - the first step to EU membership - with Belgrade in January.

Mr Rupel also announced the EU bloc would set up a special "task force" aimed at helping Serbia to speed up its progress towards the agreement, including the country's "even greater cooperation" with the International Crime Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY).

Serbia's situation has been further politically complicated by the upcoming presidential race.

This week Switzerland holds its national elections, while in Lisbon the EU leaders agreed on a new treaty. The two events have no direct connection, because Switzerland is not an EU member. However, a Swiss would have little difficulty understanding the EU's institutional quarrels. Switzerland has been successfully dealing with the challenge of keeping a multi-confessional, multi-lingual society together for more than 150 years, while respecting a large degree of autonomy for its 26 cantons.

Serbia has taken a significant step on the road to EU membership, Brussels said after the country's reform- and Europe-oriented parties ended a three-month election deadlock and agreed to form a new government.

According to media reports, the coalition deal has been struck among three parties - the Democratic Party led by president Boris Tadic, the Democratic Party of Serbia led by prime minister Vojislav Kostunica and neo-liberal G17 Plus party.

SARAJEVO, Bosnia and Herzegovina | The pending decision on Kosovo’s status and Serbia’s recent election results are consuming what little attention policy-makers give the Balkans these days. But by the end of February, over a decade of international efforts to forge a lasting peace and the ultimate integration of Bosnia and Herzegovina into the European mainstream will come down to one critical set of decisions. Late January saw the overdue and ill-camouflaged firing of Christian Schwarz-Schilling from the top job in the Office of the High Representative (OHR) and as EU special representative in Bosnia. In his face-saving announcement that he had decided not to seek an extension of his mandate, Schwarz-Schilling stated that OHR should not close as scheduled at the end of June. This judgment is almost certainly going to be confirmed in late February, when the Peace Implementation Council, the ad-hoc grouping of governments and international institutions that oversees the OHR, meets in Brussels.

France's Nicolas Sarkozy will seek to maintain as much of the rejected EU constitution as possible in the upcoming talks on a new treaty for the bloc, a top aide to the president-elect has told EUobserver. Alain Lamassoure, a prominent centre-right MEP and tipped to be the new Europe minister in the Sarkozy government, said Paris will agree to stick "as much as possible to the original text.

EU leaders have congratulated Nicolas Sarkozy on winning the French election while making it clear they now expect a reinvigorated and constructive France to come back to the European negotiating table on the bloc's future.

Four months after parliamentary elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina, the future of the country's constitutional reform package remains unclear. While some parties maintain that amendments agreed last April should be carried through, others are urging a totally fresh start. With politicians, analysts, legal experts and the international community divided, a question mark still hangs over the country's future set-up.

German leader Angela Merkel has strongly defended the independence of the European Central Bank (ECB), saying she is "worried" about the debate over the euro in France. The German chancellor in a weekend interview with French daily Le Monde took a firm stance against the idea of increased political control of the ECB promoted recently by French politicians - including both top contenders for France's May presidential elections, Nicolas Sarkozy and Segolene Royal.

The upcoming elections have triggered speculations that negotiations between Serbia and the EU might resume even prior to Ratko Mladić’s arrest. European officials have been sending clear messages during the last few months, stating that the EU welcomes Serbia, but that the conditions set by the Hague Tribunal have to be met. Serbia’s journey towards the EU came to a halt on May 3rd when EU Enlargement Commissioner Olli Rehn announced that the EU indefinitely suspended the negotiations with Serbia, since Hague fugitive Ratko Mladić had not been put behind bars.