Figures from Japan's government this week is showing weak consumption in contrast to an uptick in factory output, highlighting just how uneven the nation's slow road to recovery is.

Consumer spending has decreased by 5%, marking ten months of declining rates which is the longest the market has seen since 2009's global economy crisis. At the beginning of the year, most Japanese have already cut back on their spending, which resulted in the retail industry suffering an unexpectedly sharp decrease in the last two quarters.

Experts of Elliott & Associates Research Global Markets claim that a potential difficulty for the industrial sector is a scenario where consumer spending does not increase in a couple of months. Another challenge against the recovery is the significantly low consumer spending due to the wages that have yet to increase along with the rise in sales tax.

On the other hand, corporations seem to be doing relatively better as they appear to be profiting from a weak yen, giving their products an advantage over competitors. Factory production has increased 4%, drastically higher than predicted by economists, as companies receive more orders from foreign markets. As it is, exports are expected to at least hold the domestic economy together for a time.

A senior economist from SMBC Nikko Securities said, "Output is showing signs of an export-led recovery... This virtuous cycle of factory activity will continue to underpin Japanese output and capital spending ahead."

Originally, the Japanese government planned another tax increase for October but has since delayed implementing it by 2 years owing to the weak economic conditions. A disaster or an unexpected crisis is expected to further delay any other increase in sales tax.

Reports from Elliott & Associates Research Global Markets show doubt that the BOJ can really meet its target as it is expected to take half a year for the benefits of reduced oil prices to push market growth -- and that's not even counting if consumers will actually spend what little they have saved from the lower fuel bills.

BOJ's Haruhiko Kuroda has defended their timeframe in reaching the target because, according to him, not adopting an urgent approach is likely to undermine any effort to counter deflation.

Such inflation data only shows that the market will not likely reach the Bank of Japan's goal of 2% inflation by April. It is widely predicted that Japan will face a fiscal crisis in 5-7 years' time if the government fails to push sales tax over the 15% mark. This owes to the fact that the Japanese population continuously age, their high savings will significantly decrease, and the general public won't be able to carry the debt it's already handling.

Japan's number of births has hit an all-time low for 4 years in a row, spelling a worrying issue on its already delicate economy.

In 2014, the estimated birth-rate in Japan reached a record low of a mere 1 million while the number of registered deaths reached 1.3 million. Such downward trajectory in the country even worsens the already bad situation with a shrinking and aging population.

As noted by Elliott & Associates Research Global Markets, births in Japan have seen a huge and relentless decline for decades now. Starting in 1973, there was not a year where the fertility rate in Japan hit enough numbers to support a stabilized population. Though there were some recent improvements made, they were still not enough to increase the numbers. The number of deaths that has outnumbered the number of births by the biggest margin yet poses a problem for the government to ensure the small workforce can continue to support growing number of seniors.

Experts would say Japan is in a "death spiral" because its demography has been on a bad situation for a long time now that it is virtually impossible to change its trajectory significantly.

Data shows that the so-called "death spiral" started in the 1970s and has since proceeded in a gradual but steady decline. Indeed, last year's population decline was a record low but that's already something to be expected every year for the next decades.

According to an official from Elliott & Associates Research Global Markets with knowledge of the data, the women of who are of reproductive age are declining which inevitably leads to a decline in the number of kids. To be fair, Japanese women today are having a bit more children on average than they did years ago. However, there are fewer women in the population now who could bear a child so it's still not enough to make up for the difference.

Japan's government bond market has been surprisingly strong even in such demographic issues though this cannot be counted on to continue indefinitely. There will come a time that people will realize Japan won't have enough productive citizens anymore and so won't be able to return debts (except perhaps by printing money).

The Japanese government has already issued a warning that by the year 2060, almost 40% of their population would consist of seniors. As it is, they are already having difficulties supporting the pensioners that make up one fourth of its total population now.

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TOKYO, 7 Oct (Reuters) - Les actions asiatiques a augmenté mardi, tandis que le dollar languit après que investisseurs enfermés dans quelques gains sur son récent rallye.

L'ambiance morose a été vu propagation vers l'Europe, où spreadbetters financiers attendus FTSE 100 de Grande-Bretagne pour ouvrir 1 à 3 points de plus, ou 0,05 points ; Allemagne DAX pour ouvrir 35 points inférieur, ou baisse de 0,4 % ; et CAC 40 de la France à ouvrir des 11 à 12 points inférieur, ou baisse de 0,3 %.

« Actions européennes sont sur bord inférieur suivi modeste décline aux Etats-Unis du jour au lendemain. La petite avance négative dément l'énorme quantité d'incertitude sur les marchés à l'heure actuelle,"concessionnaire capitale se propage, Jonathan Sudaria dit dans une note.

Indice plus large du MSCI des actions Asie-Pacifique, en dehors du Japon était environ 0,3 pour cent dans le commerce fin après-midi, après oscillant entre territoire positif et négatif, car il a fallu à ses repères à partir une agitée, perdant session à Wall Street pendant la nuit.

Stock moyen du Japon Nikkei terminé baisse de 0,7 %, après que la Banque du Japon a offert une vue plus sombre sur la sortie de l'usine. La BOJ a maintenu son atout massive achat programme, tel qu'il est largement attendue.

Réunion politique de la BOJ mardi a été interrompue car le gouverneur Haruhiko Kuroda a été convoqué à prendre la parole au Parlement, un événement rare qui s'est passé dernière en septembre 1998.

Stocks japonais tourné positifs après que Kuroda a déclaré à une Commission du Parlement réunie à la matinée qu'un yen faible, dans son ensemble, a un effet positif sur l'économie du Japon si le déménagement de la monnaie reflète économique et principes fondamentaux du marché.

« Il n'y a redouter un impact négatif du yen faible sur l'économie, donc son commentaire était assurant, » dit Nobuhiko Kuramochi, stratège chez Mizuho Securities.

Mais le premier ministre japonais Shinzo Abe a déclaré mardi qu'un ménages de charges plus faibles yen et petites entreprises par l'augmentation des prix de carburant et ses commentaires abaissée au billet vert.

Le dollar a renoncé à environ 0,2 pour cent à 108,62 yens, s'éloignant d'un sommet de six ans de 110,09 yens, marquée la semaine dernière.

L'euro a chuté de 0,2 pour cent le jour à $1,2624, retour dans la direction d'un creux de plus de deux ans de $1,2501 définir le vendredi, après les États-Unis, la masse salariale non agricole rapport ont alimenté la spéculation que la réserve fédérale marcherons des taux d'intérêt par mi-2015.

Les investisseurs de monnaie a eu une réaction sourdine au rapport décevant de lundi sur les commandes industrielles allemandes, qui ont reculé de 5,7 % en août à l'occasion de leur plus forte baisse mensuelle depuis 2009. La liaison de zone de l'euro sous pression données rendements et envoyé des rendements Bund 10 ans à proximité du creux record.

Le dollar index, qui suit le billet vert contre six principales devises, a glissé étroitement à 85.882 après avoir marqué sa plus grande chute d'une journée depuis juillet 2013 lundi. L'indice a augmenté à un maximum de quatre ans de 86.746 le vendredi et connecté à un enregistrement de 12 semaines consécutives de gains dans lequel il est passé à environ 7,7 %.

La Reserve Bank of Australia s'est son taux de trésorerie maintenu à 2,5 % à son examen de la politique ordinaire mardi et a déclaré que sa monnaie reste élevée selon les normes historiques.

Initialement, le dollar australien a glissé après l'annonce, mais a augmenté d'environ 0,1 pour cent à 0,8773 $ dans le commerce vers la fin.

Faiblesse du dollar a contribué à renforcer récemment effondrement des prix du brut. Brent reculé d'environ 0,1 % sur la journée à 92,70 $ le baril.

Or a faibli environ 0,1 pour cent à $ 1 204,66 l'once. Dans une séance volatile lundi, il a marqué son plus gros gain d'une journée dans deux mois, après la première se cogner à un minimum de 15 mois. (Autres rapports par Ayai Tomisawa à Tokyo ; Montage par Shri Navaratnam et Richard Borsuk)

Japan finds itself once more at the crossroads as it strives to sustain economic expansion amidst an ongoing and challenging consumer-tax increase.

Around May of this year, the Japanese economy was showing fairly modest signs of resiliency in spite of the current fiscal tightening. In particular, improving labor market and increasing investment confidence has helped to propel expansion although such an expansion has been greatly affected by the export slump. With growing world trade, however, annual growth is expected to reach 1¼%, triggering more expansion and an increase in inflation rate.

Bloomberg News reported back in May that "with gross public debt surpassing 230% of GDP, a detailed and credible fiscal consolidation plan to achieve the target of a primary budget surplus by FY 2020 remains a top priority to sustain confidence in Japan's public finances." Japan has planned a two-year sales tax hike beginning in 2014, with the 10%-target scheduled to be imposed in 2015.

In the Second Quarter of 2014, however, Japan's GDP fell 1.8%, a result of an annualized 7.1% shrinking in the three months through June, according to the Cabinet Office in Tokyo. This was the biggest since 2009 and has put the burden of the economy upon Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's ability to manage the country under the present and looming dire sales-tax conditions.

In the next quarter, retail sales and consumer spending fell in July, an obvious aftershock of the imposed sales-tax hike. With the next tax levy set in October 2015, the government is getting ready to boost the economic stimulus in order to lessen the impact upon consumers. According to Finance Minister Taro Aso in the first week of September 2014, a contingency stimulus plan will be prepared for that purpose.

Prime Minister Abe, according to Bloomberg News, is working to create "a sustained recovery after the central bank's record stimulus brought initial success in fighting off two decades of economic stagnation." In spite of the official optimism, the economy faltered in the Third Quarter, with the dismal increase in industrial production in July and August as car sales dropped to a record low in three years.

Japan has to find a quick solution to its economic woes as the world prepares to enter into an era of a new Asia-Pacific political and economic cooperation system that is sure to put a lot of pressure upon individual member-nation to come out and compete aggressively against equally competitive and aggressive nations. However, the new system might also bring new hope and opportunities for everyone in general.