Healthcare Policy, 7(1) 2011: 68-79 Population Aging and the Determinants of Healthcar... - 0 views
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Irene Jansen on 23 Jan 12Rising hospital expenses, use of specialists threaten system; Aging population accounts for one third of increase, says UBC study Vancouver Sun Tue Aug 30 2011 Page: A4 Section: Westcoast News Byline: Matthew Robinson
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We found that population aging contributed less than 1% per year to spending on medical, hospital and pharmaceutical care. Moreover, changes in age-specific mortality rates actually reduced hospital expenditure by –0.3% per year. Based on forecasts through 2036, we found that the future effects of population aging on healthcare spending will continue to be small. We therefore conclude that population aging has exerted, and will continue to exert, only modest pressures on medical, hospital and pharmaceutical costs in Canada. As indicated by the specific non-demographic cost drivers computed in our study, the critical determinants of expenditure on healthcare stem from non-demographic factors over which practitioners, policy makers and patients have discretion.
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research dating back 30 years illustrates that population aging exerts modest pressure on health system costs in Canada (Denton and Spencer 1983; Barer et al. 1987, 1995; Roos et al. 1987; Marzouk 1991; Evans et al. 2001; McGrail et al. 2001; Denton et al. 2009)
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Despite popular claims about population aging and the sustainability of healthcare in Canada, demographic changes exert steady, predictable and modest forces on the cost of major components of our healthcare system. This is likely to remain true for the foreseeable future. Changes in the age-specific profile of healthcare costs, by contrast, can exert and have exerted significant pressures on health system costs. Clinicians, policy makers and patients have some discretion over the non-demographic sources of healthcare cost increases - unlike population aging. Though these results are largely confirmations of studies from past decades, it is nevertheless important to update the scientific basis for policy debates. Moreover, close attention to recent trends and cost drivers - such as the price of prescription drugs that drove pharmaceutical expenditures in the past decade - also helps to illuminate the non-demographic forces that seem most amenable to policy intervention. Ultimately, then, research of this nature is a reminder that the healthcare system is as sustainable as we want it to be.