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allieggg

Two rival Libyan governments claim to control oil policy | Top News | Reuters - 1 views

af.reuters.com/...idAFKCN0I705N20141018

militias armed groups war middle east policy oil reuters

shared by allieggg on 14 Nov 14 - No Cached
  • Oil traders are concerned about the uncertainty over who is in charge of Libya's vast oil reserves after the Misrata group appointed its own oil minister and took over the official website of state firm National Oil Corp (NOC).
  • ncertainty about the oil industry, which had just started to show signs of recovery after Thinni managed to end a blockage of major eastern ports by groups of rebels demanding autonomy.
  • the newly appointed oil minister, Mashallah al-Zawi,
  • ...6 more annotations...
  • Thinni, whose government is recognised by the international community, responded from Bayda, a town east of Benghazi, where his government has relocated and is trying to stay in contact with ministries almost 1,000 km (620 miles) away in Tripoli.
  • He said oil revenues for the OPEC member state continued to enter a Libyan bank, which transferred them to the central bank.
  • "They are under the control of the state of Libya and the government approved by the Libyan parliament," he said, referring to the elected House of Representatives, which has moved to Tobruk, east of Bayda near the Egyptian border.
  • chairman of National Oil Corp, Mustafa Sanallah
  • Zawi said oil revenue, Libya's sole source of income, would be around only a fifth of last year's level due to the wave of protests at oilfields and ports.
  • Western powers worry that the conflict between the Bayda- and Tripoli-based governments will lead to civil war and that the elected government's nascent army is no match for former rebels of various factions who defy state authority.
  • allieggg on 14 Nov 14
     
    As their sole source of income the control over oil policy and revenue proves to be a huge factor in which government will gain control over the greater Libya. Thinni, the prime minister recognized by the international community, has assured OPEC members that oil revenues are deposited into the Libyan Bank, which then transfers them to the central bank. While this may be true, OPEC members are worried that the continuation of Islamist militant aims for political autonomy through the occupation and attacks on oil ports. BPD have already become a fifth of what they maintained just one year ago. 
wmulnea

How ISIS Is Wrecking Iraq's Biggest Industry - Business Insider - 0 views

www.businessinsider.com/-iraqs-biggest-industry-2014-9

shared by wmulnea on 02 Mar 15 - No Cached
  • The Islamic State has taken over several oil-producing areas in Iraq and Syria, raising fears that the group could leverage its hydrocarbon wealth to the point of economic self-sufficiency.
  • ISIS is indeed producing between 25,000 and 40,000 barrels of oil a day
  • about as much as Poland, Germany, or New Zealand.
  • ...8 more annotations...
  • its oil is of poor quality, and ISIS is likely having trouble transporting it.
  • ISIS is only capable of moving its oil by truck, suggesting that the group hasn't mastered the use of northern Iraq's oil pipeline system.
  • Some experts have estimated that ISIS brings in up to $3 million in revenue each day.
  • Ben Lando of Iraq Oil Report told the Post that ISIS's daily revenue might actually be as low as $250,000 a day.
  • Iraqi fields "are so small and the crude of such poor quality that international companies did not bid to develop them
  • ISIS, which nearly seized a refinery outside of Baghdad in June, is interrupting the one industry that makes Iraq viable not just as an economy, but as a political unit as well.
  • In 2012, the International Energy Agency predicted a nearly 500% increase in Iraqi oil revenue by 2020, and concluded that revenue would double during that period even in a worst-case scenario:
  • its ability to disrupt Iraq's leading industry denies the country of much of its economic potential while degrading vital infrastructure.
amarsha5

How long can Saudi Arabia afford Yemen war? - Al-Monitor: the Pulse of the Middle East - 14 views

www.al-monitor.com/...ia-economic-repercussions.html

saudi yemen war economics

shared by amarsha5 on 07 Apr 16 - No Cached
  • long history of political animosity; this is a history that continues until our present day.
    • joepouttu
      joepouttu on 07 Apr 16
       
      "However, as Saleh continued to kill, these countries had no choice but to issue a forceful declaration to show that they were not in favor of Saleh's relentless, murderous campaign to ignore a civil war in Yemen." pg 128
  • Yemen's treasury was burdened by the costs of unification such as paying for southern civil servants to move to the new capital, Sanaa, and paying interest on its massive debt. On top of its other economic challenges, Yemen was to absorb the shock of 800,000 returnees and their pressure on the already weak job market. With their return, the estimated $350 million a month in remittances
    • joepouttu
      joepouttu on 07 Apr 16
       
      "My father had decided to leave Eritrea and return to Yemen, his homeland, after long years of exile..." pg 110
  • Civil war broke out in the summer of 1994 in what could be interpreted as a symptom of economic failure.
  • ...20 more annotations...
  • By 1995 the Yemeni government implemented a program of macroeconomic adjustment and structural reforms with support from the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund and reduced spending on defense and civil service and cut subsidies. The Yemeni economy started showing signs of recovery and stability.
  • Masood Ahmed, director of the IMF’s Middle East and Central Asia Department, wrote in 2012 that “fiscal sustainability will be an issue” for Gulf Cooperation Council countries. In its 2012 regional economic outlook, the IMF recommended to “curtail current expenditures while protecting the poor” as a response to the risk of declining oil prices.
  • Policies to cut spending were unlikely to be introduced in a monarchy like Saudi Arabia, especially after the Arab Spring, where tax-paying citizens along with non-tax-paying Bahrainis and next-door Yemenis went out on the streets to claim their rights in shaping the policies that govern their daily lives. The risk of people demanding more political rights was growing and cutting spending was not the optimal strategy for the kingdom.
    • joepouttu
      joepouttu on 07 Apr 16
       
      "The students of Sanaa were unique, marching straight out onto the street from their classrooms and chanting, 'The people demand the fall of the President and the regime.'" pg 126
  • As the kingdom continued its generous fiscal policy by providing more benefits to its citizens in response to the people’s dissatisfaction with the economic and political situation, it ran a deficit of 3.4% of GDP in 2014 due to a fall in oil revenues.
  • The kingdom's economic reforms of raising gas and diesel prices, cutting fuel subsidies in half and supporting the introduction of a GCC-wide value-added tax might ease the pressure of sustaining a war for nine months and perhaps longer. These structural reforms were long overdue and their introduction at this time is revealing.
    • amarsha5
      amarsha5 on 07 Apr 16
       
      CIG pg. 120 -> "We live in a world with many layers of linkages between countries. Nations will exchange goods and services through trade and will engage in cross-border investments from bank loans to setting up businesses. Each of these linkages can serve as a transmission mechanism in a time of crisis."
  • the political inclusion of the taxpaying citizen. It's a price the kingdom is now willing to pay, as we have seen Saudi women not only
  • and suffered an uprising fueled by anger at economic failure. The Saudi economy is trying to absorb
  • As they introduce revenue-collecting mechanisms, they should also reform mechanisms of capital transfer to the public to minimize the gap between the rich and the poor, as it is known that the poor are the most affected by tighter revenue-collecting policies. Otherwise, the Saudi war on Yemen will mark the beginning of an economic downturn that will surely spill over onto its political system in the long run.
    • joepouttu
      joepouttu on 07 Apr 16
       
      "So the young revolutionaries fight on, until all their demands are met and they are free to build their State: a state founded on social justice and equality between all citizens where Saleh's reign is just a page in the history books." pg 129
    • amarsha5
      amarsha5 on 07 Apr 16
       
      CIG pg. 116 -> "Globalization, in the shape of freer trade and multinational investments, has been generally a force for good and economic prosperity. But it has also advanced, rather than harmed, social agendas"
    • ccfuentez
      ccfuentez on 07 Apr 16
       
      But it became apparent that Saleh was not going to leave me to my own devices. He declared war in mid-1994, occupying the South and defeating the Socialist Party. Everything was finished, or so I believed. Its property stolen by the regime, the paper shut down, and once more I found myself broken, defeated and without hope. Worse, I was a known employee of the Socialist Party through my work at the paper. In the region where I lived agents for the regime had been hunting down and detaining anyone who had belonged to the Socialist Party or getting them fired from their jobs. Although I had not been a party member myself, just worked at a party newspaper, the regime made no distinction. My mother intervened, however, and hid me. She wouldn't let me out of the house. My mother always protects me.   (2013-12-31). Diaries of an Unfinished Revolution: Voices from Tunis to Damascus (p. 115). Penguin Publishing Group. Kindle Edition. 
    • atownen
      atownen on 07 Apr 16
       
      Civil War: in 1994 Jamal currently in high school, describes the times as a world, when the color of his skin would define him. The Civil War, "interpreted as a symptom of economic failure", was evident in the reading when Jamal described the lack of jobs as a college graduate, members of the socialist party were completely shut out when Saleh took the presidency, depriving hard workers the ability to integrate into the economy. 
    • ccfuentez
      ccfuentez on 07 Apr 16
       
      CIG Ch. 4 -> in relation to international rulemaking on fiscal policy -> is international intervention needed to contain and reverse financial crises in countries, esp. when it comes to the human rights and economic equality of citizens
    • mcooka
      mcooka on 07 Apr 16
       
      Relating to page 120 Sanaa could not find work after college. While his degree wasn't very fluid, he was unable to find work for about 5 years. He got into journalism which blacklisted him against the government. Now he is unemployed again. 
    • mcooka
      mcooka on 07 Apr 16
       
      This paragraph, while not highlighted, is important to the idea of globalization and why the war is not stopping. There is a flow of revenue from these oil prices that Yemen is reliant on, but they are also competing with countries that produce higher amounts of oil. This would have happened during the time Sanaa was in College writing scathing articles
    • mcooka
      mcooka on 07 Apr 16
       
       On page 113 around this time the author was working as a journalist for the newspaper. 
    • mcooka
      mcooka on 07 Apr 16
       
      Related to page 129 Sanaa is still living in hiding and in poverty. The animosity keeps him in fear. 
    • csherro2
      csherro2 on 07 Apr 16
       
      Market liberalization outlook
    • csherro2
      csherro2 on 07 Apr 16
       
      When Saleh came to power he and the leader of the southern part of Yemen, Salem al-Beid, agreed to coesxist as leaders of Yemen.  WIthin weeks of this in play, Saleh began to try to make the south his and this created the civil war.  
    • csherro2
      csherro2 on 07 Apr 16
       
      Jamal notes that the standard of living in Yemen was decreasing gradually the longer Saleh stayed in power.  
    • csherro2
      csherro2 on 07 Apr 16
       
      People, including Jamal, were writing about the Saleh regime and how they were upset with them.  
    • csherro2
      csherro2 on 07 Apr 16
       
      When Saleh's son was coming into power, Jamal saw that Yemen was moving towards a monarchy, realizing that his and the country's future was in the hands of an unqualified person.  
wmulnea

Oil and Terror: ISIS and Middle East Economies - 0 views

www.investopedia.com/...-and-middle-east-economies.asp

shared by wmulnea on 02 Mar 15 - No Cached
  • ISIS's economic cost is significant not just for Iraq but also other Middle Eastern countries.
  • Iraq has the fifth largest oil reserves in the world and third highest in the Middle East after Saudi Arabia and Iran.
  • Part of ISIS's rise in Iraq can be attributed to sectarian politics.
  • ...15 more annotations...
  • part of their dissatisfaction came from the distribution of oil revenues. 
  • The mismanagement of oil revenues is also manifest in Iraq's poor infrastructure
  • Though currently the Iraqi government has reserves and surplus funds, mounting expenditures and falling oil prices has economists to project that Iraq will run a deficit next year.
  • it is running a self-sustaining economy, making it the world's richest terror group.
  • Thankfully, 6 of 8 Iraq’s major oil fields lie in the Shia South, which is unlikely to come under ISIS control.
  • It sells crude at a steep discount, at a rate of USD $30 per barrel
  • Turkey runs a huge trade surplus with Iraq, which is likely to slow down dramatically due to lower demand from Iraq.
  • Jordan and Lebanon, which have both absorbed a large number of refugees.
  • Iran’s position seems to be the trickiest of all in that its interests align with those of the US in its fight against ISIS
  • Falling oil prices have definitely curtailed Iran’s ability to intervene without serious consequences for its economy. Iran needs oil prices well above USD $100 for it to balance its budget,
  • Any cooperation between Iran and the US over ISIS could lead to a gradual withdrawal of sanctions, which would allow Iran to sell its oil on the open market and generate revenue. The flip side is that Iran’s oil would surely depress oil prices further.
  • Saudi's allegiances have become muddled.
  • it finds its interests are aligned with those of Iran, a traditional foe, both of which are against ISIS.
  • Russia needs oil prices near USD $100 to balance its budget and Iran needs high oil prices to support its nuclear program.
  • Regionally, ISIS will disrupt and degrade the economy of several states, and that in turn may lead to further political chaos -- which is precisely ISIS's goal.
allieggg

Can Libya Rebuild Itself After 40 Years of Gaddafi? - 0 views

www.newsweek.com/f-after-40-years-gaddafi-68601

Gaddafi libya Arab Nationalism recontruction political tabula rasa Revolution politics middle east

shared by allieggg on 12 Nov 14 - No Cached
  • the man has hollowed out the Libyan state, eviscerated all opposition in Libyan society, and, in effect, created a political tabula rasa on which a newly free people will now have to scratch out a future.
  • Jamahiriya, a political system that is run directly by tribesmen without the intermediation of state institutions
  • the problem is, of course, that much like in the former Soviet satellites in Eastern Europe, virtually everyone at one point or another had to deal with the regime to survive.
  • ...25 more annotations...
  • Libya is truly a case apart.
  • the disastrous Italian legacy in Libya, has been a constant element in Gaddafi’s speeches since he took power
  • inspired by Gamal Abdel Nasser, neighboring Egypt’s president, whose ideas of Arab nationalism and of the possibility of restoring glory to the Arab world, would fuel the first decade of Gaddafi’s revolution.
  • he was unimpressed with the niceties of international diplomacy,
  • In a brilliant move that co-opted tribal elders, many of whom were also military commanders, he created the Social Leadership People’s Committee, through which he could simultaneously control the tribes and segments of the country’s military.
  • When it turned out that Libya, which was still a decentralized society in 1969, had little appetite for his centralizing political vision and remained largely indifferent to his proposals, the young idealist quickly turned activist.
  • Green Book, a set of slim volumes published in the mid-1970s that contain Gaddafi’s political philosophy, a blueprint is offered for a dramatic restructuring of Libya’s economy, politics, and society. In principle, Libya would become an experiment in democracy. In reality, it became a police state where every move of its citizens was carefully watched by a growing number of security apparatuses and revolutionary committees that owed loyalty directly to Gaddafi.
  • Having crushed all opposition by the mid-1970s, the regime systematically snuffed out any group that could potentially oppose it—any activity that could be construed as political opposition was punishable by death, which is one reason why a post-Gaddafi Libya, unlike a post-Mubarak Egypt, can have no ready-made opposition in a position to fill the vacuum.
  • The tribes—the Warfalla, the Awlad Busayf, the Magharha, the Zuwaya, the Barasa, and the smallest of them all, the Gadafa, to which he belonged—offered a natural form of political affiliation, a tribal ethos that could be tapped into for support. And perhaps, in the aftermath of Gaddafi, they could serve as a nucleus around which to build a new political system.
  • Gaddafi feared they might coalesce into groups opposing his rule. So, during the first two decades after the 1969 coup, he tried to erase their influence, arguing that they were an archaic element in a modern society.
  • comprehensive reconstruction of everything civic, political, legal, and moral that makes up a society and its government.
  • After systematically destroying local society, after using the tribes to cancel each other out, after aborting methodically the emergence of a younger generation that could take over Libya’s political life—all compounded by the general incoherence of the country’s administrative and bureaucratic institutions—Gaddafi will have left a new Libya with severe and longstanding challenges.
  • the growing isolation of Libya as international sanctions were imposed.
  • Lockerbie was the logical endpoint for a regime that had lost all international legitimacy.
  • while the regime still had the coercive power to put down any uprisings that took place in the 1990s, it became clear to Gaddafi’s closest advisers that the potential for unrest had reached unprecedented levels.
  • way out was to come to an agreement with the West that would end the sanctions, allow Libya to refurbish an aging oil infrastructure, and provide a safety valve by permitting Libyans to travel abroad once more.
  • intent to renounce weapons of mass destruction in December 2003—after a long process of behind-the-scenes diplomacy initially spearheaded by Britain
  • “The Revolution Everlasting” was one of the enduring slogans of his Libya, inscribed everywhere from bridges to water bottles.
  • regime that had, for four decades, mismanaged the country’s economy and humiliated its citizens
  • country was split in half, with eastern Cyrenaica and its main city Benghazi effectively independent—a demonstration of the kind of people’s power Gaddafi had always advocated. Reality, in effect, outgrew the caricature.
  • used a set of divide-and-rule policies that not only kept his opponents sundered from each other, but had also completely enfeebled any social or political institution in the country.
  • Beyond Gaddafi, there exists only a great political emptiness, a void that Libya somehow will need to fill.
  • the creation of a modern state where Libyans become true citizens, with all the rights and duties this entails.
  • the terrorist incidents
  • Regimes can use oil revenues strategically to provide patronage that effectively keeps them in power.
  • allieggg on 12 Nov 14
     
    This article from News Week basically paints a picture of Libyan history and how Gaddafi's reign devastated the state economically, socially, and politically. Author Dirk Vandewalle uses the phrase "a political tabula rasa" which in Latin means a blank slate, to describe the fate of Libya after Gaddafi's rule and convey the extent to which the country has to literally reconstruct every component that makes up a society and its government. He highlights major events that led to the downfall of both the Gaddafi regime and the Libyan state as a whole such as Arab nationalism, Jamahiriya, the Green Book, security apparatuses snuffing all opposition, terrorist incidents, isolation and international sanctions, the Lockerbie bombing, weapons of mass destruction, human right violations, divide and rule policies, and his use of oil revenue to fuel his insurgency. Vandewalle concludes the article with uncertain ideas thoughts towards Libya's future and the way the state is going to literally rebuild themselves from this "blank slate" that Gaddafi left behind. 
allieggg

Islamists Aren't the Obstacle | Foreign Affairs - 0 views

www.foreignaffairs.com/...islamists-arent-the-obstacle

middle east democracy Islamists institutions egypt politics tunisia

shared by allieggg on 28 Sep 14 - No Cached
micklethwait liked it
  • A minority of the population -- 26 percent of Tunisians and 28 percent of Egyptians -- believes that Islam should play a large role in government.
  • Both secularists and Islamists associate democracy with economic prosperity
  • Islamist parties received considerable support in both countries' recent elections -- not only because there is a broad ideological affinity for Islamism among the population but also because of Islamist parties' effective campaigning.
  • ...10 more annotations...
  • When asked about the most important feature of a democracy, 69 percent of Egyptians and 32 percent of Tunisians put providing people with basic necessities or narrowing the gap between rich and poor at the top of their lists.
  • On a related note, Islamist parties have shown a remarkable ability to maintain their base.
  • Tunisia has fared better than Egypt so far in the post-Arab Spring transition, with less violence, fewer demonstrations, and greater political stability. This is in part because challenges are easier to confront in a country of only 11 million, 98 percent of whom are Sunni Muslim, compared to the more diverse and populous Egypt. But Tunisia's success is primarily a result of its stronger institutions, which provide a conduit for political debate.
  • Many onlookers claim that Egypt's more tumultuous post-revolution trajectory is because of the country's legacy of religiosity and Islamism.
  • Egyptians, in fact, are no more religious than Tunisians.
  • Egypt's institutions are weak and have been routinely undermined by entrenched interests. The countries' different geopolitical situations play a role here. Tunisia's minimal strategic importance means that foreign countries have less reason to intervene. But Egypt's proximity to Israel and the Palestinian territories, its 1979 peace treaty with Israel, and its role as an intermediary between Israel and Hamas make its political developments important to Israel and the United States. Consequently, Egypt is vulnerable to foreign interference, particularly to attempts to prop up its military. Furthermore, beyond serving as a pillar to Egypt's authoritarian regimes, the Egyptian military has significant business interests and accounts for ten to 30 percent of Egypt's gross domestic product.
  • Egypt's judicial branch, which is also more powerful than Tunisia's, has at times undermined democratic processes.
  • Egyptian Supreme Constitutional Court ruled that the Islamist-dominated parliament and the Constituent Assembly it elected were unconstitutional, because Islamist parties contested seats intended for independent candidates. The move polarized the country and pushed the executive branch to take extreme measures.
  • Egyptian democracy is undermined by the inability of institutions to address citizens' demands and the impulse of powerful actors to interfere, not by the divide between Islamists and secularists. Institutions in Egypt fail to provide a meaningful forum for debate. As a result, violent street protesters and extremist sheiks are gaining power.
  • U.S. policy must support institutions rather than actors, and processes rather than outcomes, in order to help Egypt and Tunisia achieve their democratic potential.
  • allieggg on 28 Sep 14
     
    The Council on Foreign Relations published an article about democratization in the middle east and the major obstacles that are present in the process. While most assume Islamists and Islamic embedded institutions are the root of the delayed democratic transition, the problems are much bigger than that. While Islamist regimes do indeed stunt the growth of democratic progress in terms of creating a stable government, Arab countries struggle with economic and social factors as well. The Arab Spring Revolutions have caused economic and social degradation across the region, resulting in a road block of political leadership. Without a reliable and capable government structure, the states are unable to progress economically. However, in order to have a stable government, social and economic institutions must be in place to create this capitalist economy that they strive for. Because most wealth resides in oil, the revenue that the states bring in isn't distributed properly throughout society and is concentrated within few business elites. The article stresses that instead of foreign aid going into the hands of an unstable leader or regime, it should be invested in institutions in order to spur economic growth and eliminate corruption. Rather than focusing on the Islamist-secularist divide, the world should be working towards the strengthening of institutions to create a stable foundation for governance. 
kevinobkirchner

Wave of Patriotism as Egypt Raises $9 Billion for Suez Canal - NBC News.com - 0 views

www.nbcnews.com/...s-9-billion-suez-canal-n214681

egypt suez-canal al-sisi investment economy

shared by kevinobkirchner on 08 Oct 14 - No Cached
  • kevinobkirchner on 08 Oct 14
     
    Despite the hardships Egyptian citizens have endured in the last 4 years they have poured a collective 8.5 billion dollars into an upgrade of the Suez Canal, a long time symbol of national pride. Al-Sisi is planning to build a waterway parallel to the Suez Canal. Egyptians had the option to invest in the waterway by purchasing certificates with a guaranteed return. 82% of investments were from individuals instead of institutions and the canal is expected to bring in $2 to $5 billion in revenue over the next two to three years.
taylordillingham

Egyptians expatriate remittances equivalent triple to Suez Canal revenues: World Bank -... - 0 views

www.dailynewsegypt.com/...suez-canal-revenues-world-bank

shared by taylordillingham on 07 Jan 15 - No Cached
  • taylordillingham on 28 Jan 15
     
    Demonstration bookmark.
aavenda2

King Salman must reform Saudi Arabia's economy - before it's too late - 1 views

theweek.com/...i-arabias-economy--before-late

saudi arabia economy petroleum

shared by aavenda2 on 05 Feb 15 - No Cached
  • aavenda2 on 05 Feb 15
     
    Diversifying the private sector In an economy where oil generates 90% of all government income is no easy task. This article touches on the future of Saudi Arabia and its potential economic and unemployment risks if the country does not seek new ways of generating revenue and creating non-oil related jobs.
wmulnea

Libya's civil war: That it should come to this | The Economist - 3 views

www.economist.com/...factional-chaos-it-should-come

shared by wmulnea on 11 Apr 15 - No Cached
  • It is split between a government in Beida, in the east of the country, which is aligned with the military; and another in Tripoli, in the west, which is dominated by Islamists and militias from western coastal cities
  • Benghazi is again a battlefield.
  • The black plumes of burning oil terminals stretch out over the Mediterranean.
  • ...69 more annotations...
  • Libya looked like the latest fragile blossoming of the Arab spring
  • Army commanders, mostly of Arab Bedouin origin, refused orders to shoot the protesters
  • the revolutionaries cobbled together a National Transitional Council (NTC) claiming to represent all of Libya
  • Volunteers from students to bank managers took up arms, joining popular militias and only sometimes obeying the orders of defecting army commanders trying to take control
  • In August Western bombing of government bases surrounding Tripoli cleared an avenue for the revolutionaries to take the capital.
  • Recognised abroad, popular at home and enjoying the benefits of healthy oil revenues—97% of the government’s income—the NTC was well placed to lay the foundations for a new Libya
  • he judges, academics and lawyers who filled its ranks worried about their own legitimacy and feared confrontation with the militias which, in toppling Qaddafi, had taken his arsenals for their own.
  • militia leaders were already ensconced in the capital’s prime properties
  • The NTC presided over Libya’s first democratic elections in July 2012, and the smooth subsequent handover of power to the General National Congress (GNC) revived popular support for the revolution.
  • Islamist parties won only 19 of 80 seats assigned to parties in the new legislature, and the process left the militias on the outside
  • The Homeland party, founded by Abdel Hakim Belhad
  • tried to advertise its moderation by putting an unveiled woman at the head of its party list in Benghazi
  • The incumbent prime minister, Abdurrahim al-Keib, a university professor who had spent decades in exile, fretted and dithered
  • He bowed to militia demands for their leaders to be appointed to senior ministries, and failed to revive public-works programmes
  • which might have given militiamen jobs
  • Many received handouts without being required to hand in weapons or disband, an incentive which served to swell their ranks
  • the number of revolutionaries registered with the Warriors Affairs Commission set up by the NTC was about 60,000; a year later there were over 200,000. Of some 500 registered militias, almost half came from one city, Misrata.
  • In May 2013 the militias forced parliament to pass a law barring from office anyone who had held a senior position in Qaddafi’s regime after laying siege to government ministries.
  • In the spring of 2014, Khalifa Haftar, a retired general who had earlier returned from two decades of exile in America, forcibly tried to dissolve the GNC and re-establish himself as the armed forces’ commander-in-chief in an operation he called Dignity
  • The elections which followed were a far cry from the happy experience of 2012. In some parts of the country it was too dangerous to go out and vote
  • Such retrenchment has been particularly noticeable among women. In 2011 they created a flurry of new civil associations; now many are back indoors.
  • Turnout in the June 2014 elections was 18%, down from 60% in 2012, and the Islamists fared even worse than before
  • Dismissing the results, an alliance of Islamist, Misratan and Berber militias called Libya Dawn launched a six-week assault on Tripoli. The newly elected parliament decamped to Tobruk, some 1,300km east
  • Grasping for a figleaf of legitimacy, Libya Dawn reconstituted the pre-election GNC and appointed a new government
  • So today Libya is split between two parliaments—both boycotted by their own oppositions and inquorate—two governments, and two central-bank governors.
  • The army—which has two chiefs of staff—is largely split along ethnic lines, with Arab soldiers in Arab tribes rallying around Dignity and the far fewer Misratan and Berber ones around Libya Dawn.
  • Libya Dawn controls the bulk of the territory and probably has more fighters at its disposal.
  • General Haftar’s Dignity, which has based its government in Beida, has air power and, probably, better weaponry
  • the Dignity movement proclaims itself America’s natural ally in the war on terror and the scourge of jihadist Islam
  • Libya Dawn’s commanders present themselves as standard-bearers of the revolution against Qaddafi now continuing the struggle against his former officers
  • Ministers in the east vow to liberate Tripoli from its “occupation” by Islamists, all of whom they denounce as terrorists
  • threatens to take the war to Egypt if Mr Sisi continues to arm the east. Sleeping cells could strike, he warns, drawn from the 2m tribesmen of Libyan origin in Egypt.
  • Yusuf Dawar
  • The struggle over the Gulf of Sirte area, which holds Libya’s main oil terminals and most of its oil reserves, threatens to devastate the country’s primary asset
  • And in the Sahara, where the largest oilfields are, both sides have enlisted ethnic minorities as proxies
  • ibya Dawn has drafted in the brown-skinned Tuareg, southern cousins of the Berbers; Dignity has recruited the black-skinned Toubou. As a result a fresh brawl is brewing in the Saharan oasis of Ubari, which sits at the gates of the al-Sharara oilfield, largest of them all.
  • Oil production has fallen and become much more volatile
  • oil is worth half as much as it was a year ago
  • The Central Bank is now spending at three times the rate that it is taking in oil money
  • The bank is committed to neutrality, but is based in Tripoli
  • Tripoli may have a little more access to cash, but is in bad shape in other ways
  • Fuel supplies and electricity are petering out
  • Crime is rising; carjacking street gangs post their ransom demands on Twitter
  • In Fashloum
  • residents briefly erected barricades to keep out a brigade of Islamists, the Nuwassi
  • “No to Islamists and the al-Qaeda gang” reads the roadside graffiti
  • Libya’s ungoverned spaces are growing,
  • Each month 10,000 migrants set sail for Europe
  • On January 3rd, IS claimed to have extended its reach to Libya’s Sahara too, killing a dozen soldiers at a checkpoint
  • The conflict is as likely to spread as to burn itself out.
  • the Western powers
  • have since been conspicuous by their absence. Chastened by failure in Afghanistan and Iraq, they have watched from the sidelines
  • Obama washed his hands of Libya after Islamists killed his ambassador
  • Italy, the former colonial power, is the last country to have a functioning embassy in Tripoli.
  • Even under Qaddafi the country did not feel so cut off
  • Dignity is supported not just by Mr Sisi but also by the United Arab Emirates, which has sent its own fighter jets into the fray as well as providing arms
  • The UAE’s Gulf rival, Qatar, and Turkey have backed the Islamists and Misratans in the west
  • If oil revenues were to be put into an escrow account, overseas assets frozen and the arms embargo honoured he thinks it might be possible to deprive fighters of the finance that keeps them fighting and force them to the table
  • Until 1963 Libya was governed as three federal provinces—Cyrenaica in the east, Fezzan in the south and Tripolitania in the west
  • The old divisions still matter
  • the marginalised Cyrenaicans harked back to the time when their king split his time between the courts of Tobruk and Beida and when Arabs from the Bedouin tribes of the Green Mountains ran his army
  • Tensions between those tribes and Islamist militias ran high from the start.
  • July 2011 jihadists keen to settle scores with officers who had crushed their revolt in the late 1990s killed the NTC’s commander-in-chief, Abdel Fattah Younis, who came from a powerful Arab tribe in the Green Mountains. In June 2013 the Transitional Council of Barqa (the Arab name for Cyrenaica), a body primarily comprised of Arab tribes, declared the east a separate federal region, and soon after allied tribal militias around the Gulf of Sirte took control of the oilfields.
  • In the west, indigenous Berbers, who make up about a tenth of the population, formed a council of their own and called on larger Berber communities in the Maghreb and Europe for support
  • Port cities started to claim self-government and set up their own border controls.
  • Derna—a small port in the east famed for having sent more jihadists per person to fight in Iraq than anywhere else in the world
  • opposed NATO intervention and insisted that the NTC was a pagan (wadani) not national (watani) council
  • Some in Derna have now declared their allegiance to Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the caliph of the so-called Islamic State (IS) in Syria and Iraq.
  • In December the head of America’s Africa command told reporters that IS was training some 200 fighters in the town.
wmulnea

Libya's civil war: An oily mess | The Economist - 3 views

www.economist.com/...de-tries-grab-oil-revenue-oily

shared by wmulnea on 09 Apr 15 - No Cached
  • Libya’s oil output is down to some 500,000 barrels a day, from as much as 1.7m at its peak (see chart)
  • The revenue is being fought over by both sides in the conflict, which has split the country between two rival governments—the one in Beida, the other in Tripoli—and their allied militias.
  • wmulnea on 09 Apr 15
     
    Libya is going broke as two competing factions vie for government control. The Beida based government is trying to move Libyan oil money off-shore.
wmulnea

Libya plans to manage oil revenue from UAE account | ArabianOilandGas.com - 1 views

www.arabianoilandgas.com/e-oil-revenue-from-uae-account

shared by wmulnea on 09 Apr 15 - No Cached
  • wmulnea on 09 Apr 15
     
    Thini announces plans to divert Libyan oil money to an account in the UAE.
mwrightc

'Flee': Message to ISIS oil tanker drivers released by Pentagon | Fox News - 0 views

www.foxnews.com/...vers-released-by-pentagon.html

ISIS syria tanker drivers

shared by mwrightc on 26 Jan 16 - No Cached
  • mwrightc on 26 Jan 16
     
    This article describes what the Pentagon went through in order to warn the oil tanker drivers of the coming fighter jets that were going to destroy their trucks. This was because the tankers were carrying oil that was bringing in revenue to ISIS.
amarsha5

Why Tunisians Are Protesting Again 5 Years After The Revolution - 0 views

www.huffingtonpost.com/...ed_us_56a4152ae4b0d8cc109a5ed4

tunisia unemployment economy security revolution

shared by amarsha5 on 11 Feb 16 - No Cached
  • amarsha5 on 11 Feb 16
     
    The Tunisian revolution is still ongoing, as unemployment rate hit 15% and stark wealth disparities countrywide. The country has taken a critical hit to its tourism revenues and foreign investment with recent terror attacks. The government is promising to boost economic growth in some areas.
nicolet1189

BBC News - Battle for Iraq and Syria in maps - 0 views

www.bbc.com/...world-middle-east-27838034

Isis Syria Iraq air strikes

shared by nicolet1189 on 29 Sep 14 - No Cached
  • The US with Bahrain, Jordan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates launched 14 strikes against IS in Syria, hitting a number of targets, including Raqqa, a stronghold in eastern Syria captured by the group in 2013.
  • al-Qaeda veterans named
  • These refineries are believed to be producing "between 300-500 barrels of refined petrolium per day", generating as much as $2 million (£1.2m) per day for the militants, a key source of revenue for IS.
  • ...17 more annotations...
  • Khorasan
  • killed 14 of the group's fighters and five civilians
  • more than 200 attacks on IS targets in Iraq since 8 August. F
  • concentrated on targets around the Mosul Dam -
  • a caliphate, or Islamic state, stretching from Aleppo in Syria to the province of Diyala in Iraq.
  • Mosul
  • Ramadi
  • Falluja
  • Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi
  • beneath him are four advisory councils:
  • 31,000 fighters in Iraq and Syria -
  • 12,000 fighters from almost 80 countries
  • foreign recruits - the number of whom has surged since IS declared itself a caliphate in the summer, international investigators say.
  • majority are from nearby Arab countries, such as Tunisia, Saudi Arabia and Jordan.
  • 16 "wilayats", or provinces, that IS claims to control,
  • match areas where its predecessor, al-Qaeda in Iraq
  • three million people have fled abroad to escape the fighting in Syria.
  • nicolet1189 on 29 Sep 14
     
    This article provides a detailed outline of the battle against ISIS in Iraq and Syria through the use of maps, charts, and photographs to allow readers to visualize areas where fighting is taking place. Several maps provide locations of ISIS controlled territory, locations of airstrikes, and locations of ISIS controlled oil refineries. It was really helpful to see different maps outlining this information because I often hear about this conflict on the radio or television programs and it can be hard to understand the scope of the conflict without any visual aids. I really appreciated the effort to show in detail the specific locations.
  • nicolet1189 on 13 Oct 14
     
    This article outlined the fight against ISIS in Syria and Iraq providing detailed maps, charts, and photos to present a more clear picture of where violence and air strikes are occurring.
micklethwait

Libya: Where are the dividing lines? - Middle East - Al Jazeera English - 0 views

www.aljazeera.com/...g-lines-20149871934621546.html

shared by micklethwait on 14 Sep 14 - No Cached
  • The House moved to Tobruk after armed groups supportive of the General National Congress began to overrun the capital.
  • Libya's new parliament, dominated by self-styled secular and nationalist candidates, was formed after the heavy defeat of Islamist candidates in June elections.
  • In the House of Representatives camp, many figures have come together in opposition to the contentious political isolation law, which banned anyone involved with the former regime from political participation.
  • ...5 more annotations...
  • Errishi told Al Jazeera that oil revenues pass through the country's central bank. With members of Libya Dawn guarding the gates to the central bank, Errishi added that "the central bank is controlled by whomever is controlling Tripoli".
  • The UAE, which is home to Mahmoud Jibril, a leading politician opposed to Libya's Islamist groups, has been accused by the US of bombing sites held by Misrata forces with the help of Egypt.
  • t has also been alleged that Qatar, which plays host to Ali Salabi, a leading spiritual figure with close ties to the Muslim Brotherhood, has provided weapons and support to Brotherhood-affiliated groups battling former general Haftar.
  • With the displacement of 100,000 people due to fighting in Tripoli and Benghazi, however, the Libya crisis may not yet have taken its worst turn. "If we see more brigades going to one side over the other," said researcher Hamedi, "this will lead to civil war. The role of the regional environment is to help the domestic equation reach a deal."
    • micklethwait
      micklethwait on 10 Oct 14
       
      sghsdghsfghfgh
  • allieggg on 14 Sep 14
     
    Due to Libya's lack of institutional structure and weak centralized government, rival militia violence and clashes have created constant chaos leading the country towards another civil war. After the fall of Qaddafi, who obliterated institutions necessary for a functional government, Libya has been unable to manage the state. The National Transitional Council, which replaced the Qaddafi Regime, turned into the General National Congress and was given 18 months to form a democratic constitution. When the deadline passed the constitution was incomplete, which forced Congress to organize elections to a new House of Representatives. The former GNC members declared a new self proclaimed GNC, electing Omar al-Hasi as their prime minister. The new GNC is not recognized by Libya's parliament nor is it by the international community. Al Jazeera says the country literally has two parliaments and two governments, creating inconceivable instability throughout the state. The newly elected House has moved to Tobruk after armed islamic GNC militia groups overran the capital, seizing control over the major institutions in Tripoli. Due to this lack of a functional government, the rest of the state has turned to chaos. After the civil war, anti and pro Qaddafi forces branched into militias striving for power. Without a working state and government, militias had to rely on themselves to provide security, and really have no incentive to give up arms and no true government to be a part of. General Khalifa Hifter, a former Qaddafi general who later joined the Libyan rebel army in 2011, formed an anti-militia militia, targeting islamist militias like Ansar al-Sharia. Hifter is not affiliated with either of the governments, but rather strives for a military government, and supreme control of the armed forces.
wmulnea

Isis threatens future oil supplies, warns IEA - FT.com - 0 views

www.ft.com/...59-11e4-a1a9-00144feabdc0.html

shared by wmulnea on 02 Mar 15 - No Cached
  • Mr Birol said instability in the Middle East, and especially in Iraq, had “major implications” for oil markets.
  • Iraq has the world’s third-largest reserves of conventional oil
  • the government in Baghdad and the Kurdistan Regional Government in Erbil, which are usually at loggerheads, this month agreeing a temporary deal for crude exports and revenue sharing
  • ...4 more annotations...
  • Iraq’s oil production has fallen only 10 per cent this year.
  • the rapid ascent of Isis has raised questions about the country’s security, adding to international companies’ concerns about regulatory, environmental and budget problems.
  • Poor roads and transport infrastructure were adding to security concerns and hence costs, he added.
  • Mr Birol said it was highly unlikely that US crude production could meet the expected increase in global demand, even if shale oil production continued to outpace forecasts as it has done in recent years.
fcastro2

The U.S. Needs to Rethink Its Anti-ISIS Approach in Syria | TIME - 0 views

time.com/...u-s-anti-isis-campaign-syria

ISIS syria politics US strategy

shared by fcastro2 on 09 Mar 15 - No Cached
  • As a result, morale among nationalist fighters in northern Syria has plummeted
  • ISIS remains essentially unchallenged in its heartland in northern Syria, despite repeated U.S. air strikes
  • In the south, nationalists have fared better at keeping ISIS out and Jabhat al Nusra in check, partly due to a coherent, rational U.S.-led support program operating covertly out of Jordan
  • ...14 more annotations...
  • A strategy to beat the jihadists and make sure they stay beaten must be locally-driven, led by nationalist forces supported by the Sunni population that forms the insurgency’s social base.
  • The U.S.-led air campaign against the Islamic State of Iraq and Greater Syria (ISIS) has scored some points in Syria, weakening ISIS’s oil infrastructure and revenues and keeping the group out of Kobane
  • the promised U.S. train-and-equip program is unlikely to reverse the nationalists’ losses or jihadists’ gains in northern Syria
  • air strikes alone, and treating nationalist groups as agents rather than partners, violates this principle
  • , the U.S. has helped nationalists in the south avoid the fragmentation, infighting, and lawlessness that weakened them and benefited the jihadists in northern Syria
  • ISIS offers conquered populations the choice between submission – which brings a sense of order and some protection from regime violence – or futile resistance and death
  • Jabhat al Nusra has driven nationalist forces out of much of their core territory in northern Syria, and ISIS continues to threaten those that remain
  • Even if the coalition wants to avoid confronting regime forces, it can and should concentrate air strikes closer to ISIS’s front lines with the nationalist insurgency, helping the latter block ISIS advances in cooperation with local Kurdish forces when possible
  • the United States has excluded them from the coalition military effort
  • , U.S. interests would be better served by a two-pronged approach in northern and southern Syria, helping nationalist rebels contain ISIS and compete with Jabhat al Nusra for control of the insurgency.
  • U.S. airstrikes on jihadists have spared the regime’s forces and inadvertently killed Syrian civilians
  • that Sunni Muslims are under siege by oppressive regional minorities, Iran, and even the United States itself
  • Ironically, the coalition campaign has contributed to the near-collapse of nationalist forces in northern Syria who, despite their imperfections, were ISIS’s most effective rivals and competed with Jabhat al Nusra for leadership of the insurgency
  • campaign has had serious local side effects that have undermined the broader, long-term objective of degrading and destroying ISIS in Syria and preventing the Al Qaeda affiliate, Jabhat al Nusra, from replacing or thriving alongside ISIS
  • fcastro2 on 09 Mar 15
     
    The U.S. should no long really solely on air-strikes to bring down the ISIS group in Syria but it needs other strategic plans. They need to work with the people in Syria and gain their support and trust in order to defeat ISIS.
jreyesc

How ISIS makes its millions - CNN.com - 2 views

www.cnn.com/...isis-funding

oil smuggling ISIS ISIL turkey

shared by jreyesc on 19 Nov 14 - No Cached
  • Oil-smuggling operations involving millions of barrels have recently been uncovered.
  • oil comes from wells and refineries that ISIS has taken over inside northern Iraq and northern Syria
  • until very recently it was easy to smuggle it into this quiet part of southern Turkey.
  • ...4 more annotations...
  • Turkey, just a half hour's drive away, gasoline costs roughly $7.50 per gallon
  • believes ISIS takes in millions of dollars a month.
  • how much the group spends -- is huge, including salaries, weapons and other expenses.
  • Besides revenue from oil smuggling, the group receives money through donations from wealthy sympathizers in countries including Qatar and Kuwait.
  • jreyesc on 19 Nov 14
     
    This article goes into specific into the way the Islamic State makes their money like oil smuggling. They talk about how IS is taking control of oil wells and refiners.
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