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wmulnea

Libya's civil war: That it should come to this | The Economist - 3 views

www.economist.com/...factional-chaos-it-should-come

shared by wmulnea on 11 Apr 15 - No Cached
  • It is split between a government in Beida, in the east of the country, which is aligned with the military; and another in Tripoli, in the west, which is dominated by Islamists and militias from western coastal cities
  • Benghazi is again a battlefield.
  • The black plumes of burning oil terminals stretch out over the Mediterranean.
  • ...69 more annotations...
  • Libya looked like the latest fragile blossoming of the Arab spring
  • Army commanders, mostly of Arab Bedouin origin, refused orders to shoot the protesters
  • the revolutionaries cobbled together a National Transitional Council (NTC) claiming to represent all of Libya
  • Volunteers from students to bank managers took up arms, joining popular militias and only sometimes obeying the orders of defecting army commanders trying to take control
  • In August Western bombing of government bases surrounding Tripoli cleared an avenue for the revolutionaries to take the capital.
  • Recognised abroad, popular at home and enjoying the benefits of healthy oil revenues—97% of the government’s income—the NTC was well placed to lay the foundations for a new Libya
  • he judges, academics and lawyers who filled its ranks worried about their own legitimacy and feared confrontation with the militias which, in toppling Qaddafi, had taken his arsenals for their own.
  • militia leaders were already ensconced in the capital’s prime properties
  • The NTC presided over Libya’s first democratic elections in July 2012, and the smooth subsequent handover of power to the General National Congress (GNC) revived popular support for the revolution.
  • Islamist parties won only 19 of 80 seats assigned to parties in the new legislature, and the process left the militias on the outside
  • The Homeland party, founded by Abdel Hakim Belhad
  • tried to advertise its moderation by putting an unveiled woman at the head of its party list in Benghazi
  • The incumbent prime minister, Abdurrahim al-Keib, a university professor who had spent decades in exile, fretted and dithered
  • He bowed to militia demands for their leaders to be appointed to senior ministries, and failed to revive public-works programmes
  • which might have given militiamen jobs
  • Many received handouts without being required to hand in weapons or disband, an incentive which served to swell their ranks
  • the number of revolutionaries registered with the Warriors Affairs Commission set up by the NTC was about 60,000; a year later there were over 200,000. Of some 500 registered militias, almost half came from one city, Misrata.
  • In May 2013 the militias forced parliament to pass a law barring from office anyone who had held a senior position in Qaddafi’s regime after laying siege to government ministries.
  • In the spring of 2014, Khalifa Haftar, a retired general who had earlier returned from two decades of exile in America, forcibly tried to dissolve the GNC and re-establish himself as the armed forces’ commander-in-chief in an operation he called Dignity
  • The elections which followed were a far cry from the happy experience of 2012. In some parts of the country it was too dangerous to go out and vote
  • Such retrenchment has been particularly noticeable among women. In 2011 they created a flurry of new civil associations; now many are back indoors.
  • Turnout in the June 2014 elections was 18%, down from 60% in 2012, and the Islamists fared even worse than before
  • Dismissing the results, an alliance of Islamist, Misratan and Berber militias called Libya Dawn launched a six-week assault on Tripoli. The newly elected parliament decamped to Tobruk, some 1,300km east
  • Grasping for a figleaf of legitimacy, Libya Dawn reconstituted the pre-election GNC and appointed a new government
  • So today Libya is split between two parliaments—both boycotted by their own oppositions and inquorate—two governments, and two central-bank governors.
  • The army—which has two chiefs of staff—is largely split along ethnic lines, with Arab soldiers in Arab tribes rallying around Dignity and the far fewer Misratan and Berber ones around Libya Dawn.
  • Libya Dawn controls the bulk of the territory and probably has more fighters at its disposal.
  • General Haftar’s Dignity, which has based its government in Beida, has air power and, probably, better weaponry
  • the Dignity movement proclaims itself America’s natural ally in the war on terror and the scourge of jihadist Islam
  • Libya Dawn’s commanders present themselves as standard-bearers of the revolution against Qaddafi now continuing the struggle against his former officers
  • Ministers in the east vow to liberate Tripoli from its “occupation” by Islamists, all of whom they denounce as terrorists
  • threatens to take the war to Egypt if Mr Sisi continues to arm the east. Sleeping cells could strike, he warns, drawn from the 2m tribesmen of Libyan origin in Egypt.
  • Yusuf Dawar
  • The struggle over the Gulf of Sirte area, which holds Libya’s main oil terminals and most of its oil reserves, threatens to devastate the country’s primary asset
  • And in the Sahara, where the largest oilfields are, both sides have enlisted ethnic minorities as proxies
  • ibya Dawn has drafted in the brown-skinned Tuareg, southern cousins of the Berbers; Dignity has recruited the black-skinned Toubou. As a result a fresh brawl is brewing in the Saharan oasis of Ubari, which sits at the gates of the al-Sharara oilfield, largest of them all.
  • Oil production has fallen and become much more volatile
  • oil is worth half as much as it was a year ago
  • The Central Bank is now spending at three times the rate that it is taking in oil money
  • The bank is committed to neutrality, but is based in Tripoli
  • Tripoli may have a little more access to cash, but is in bad shape in other ways
  • Fuel supplies and electricity are petering out
  • Crime is rising; carjacking street gangs post their ransom demands on Twitter
  • In Fashloum
  • residents briefly erected barricades to keep out a brigade of Islamists, the Nuwassi
  • “No to Islamists and the al-Qaeda gang” reads the roadside graffiti
  • Libya’s ungoverned spaces are growing,
  • Each month 10,000 migrants set sail for Europe
  • On January 3rd, IS claimed to have extended its reach to Libya’s Sahara too, killing a dozen soldiers at a checkpoint
  • The conflict is as likely to spread as to burn itself out.
  • the Western powers
  • have since been conspicuous by their absence. Chastened by failure in Afghanistan and Iraq, they have watched from the sidelines
  • Obama washed his hands of Libya after Islamists killed his ambassador
  • Italy, the former colonial power, is the last country to have a functioning embassy in Tripoli.
  • Even under Qaddafi the country did not feel so cut off
  • Dignity is supported not just by Mr Sisi but also by the United Arab Emirates, which has sent its own fighter jets into the fray as well as providing arms
  • The UAE’s Gulf rival, Qatar, and Turkey have backed the Islamists and Misratans in the west
  • If oil revenues were to be put into an escrow account, overseas assets frozen and the arms embargo honoured he thinks it might be possible to deprive fighters of the finance that keeps them fighting and force them to the table
  • Until 1963 Libya was governed as three federal provinces—Cyrenaica in the east, Fezzan in the south and Tripolitania in the west
  • The old divisions still matter
  • the marginalised Cyrenaicans harked back to the time when their king split his time between the courts of Tobruk and Beida and when Arabs from the Bedouin tribes of the Green Mountains ran his army
  • Tensions between those tribes and Islamist militias ran high from the start.
  • July 2011 jihadists keen to settle scores with officers who had crushed their revolt in the late 1990s killed the NTC’s commander-in-chief, Abdel Fattah Younis, who came from a powerful Arab tribe in the Green Mountains. In June 2013 the Transitional Council of Barqa (the Arab name for Cyrenaica), a body primarily comprised of Arab tribes, declared the east a separate federal region, and soon after allied tribal militias around the Gulf of Sirte took control of the oilfields.
  • In the west, indigenous Berbers, who make up about a tenth of the population, formed a council of their own and called on larger Berber communities in the Maghreb and Europe for support
  • Port cities started to claim self-government and set up their own border controls.
  • Derna—a small port in the east famed for having sent more jihadists per person to fight in Iraq than anywhere else in the world
  • opposed NATO intervention and insisted that the NTC was a pagan (wadani) not national (watani) council
  • Some in Derna have now declared their allegiance to Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the caliph of the so-called Islamic State (IS) in Syria and Iraq.
  • In December the head of America’s Africa command told reporters that IS was training some 200 fighters in the town.
fcastro2

A daring plan to rebuild Syria - no matter who wins the war - Ideas - The Boston Globe - 0 views

www.bostonglobe.com/...story.html

syria plan war politics china russia the west

shared by fcastro2 on 23 Feb 15 - No Cached
  • The first year of Syria’s uprising, 2011, largely spared Aleppo, the country’s economic engine, largest city, and home of its most prized heritage sites. Fighting engulfed Aleppo in 2012 and has never let up since, making the city a symbol of the civil war’s grinding destruction
  • Rebels captured the eastern side of the city while the government held the wes
  • , residents say the city is virtually uninhabitable; most who remain have nowhere else to go
  • ...28 more annotations...
  • In terms of sheer devastation, Syria today is worse off than Germany at the end of World War II
  • ven as the fighting continues, a movement is brewing among planners, activists and bureaucrats—some still in Aleppo, others in Damascus, Turkey, and Lebanon—to prepare, right now, for the reconstruction effort that will come whenever peace finally arrives.
  • In a glass tower belonging to the United Nations’ Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia, a project called the National Agenda for the Future of Syria has brought together teams of engineers, architects, water experts, conservationists, and development experts to grapple with seemingly impossible technical problems
  • It is good to do the planning now, because on day one we will be ready,”
  • The team planning the country’s future is a diverse one. Some are employed by the government of Syria, others by the rebels’ rival provisional government. Still others work for the UN, private construction companies, or nongovernmental organizations involved in conservation, like the World Monuments Fund
  • As the group’s members outline a path toward renewal, they’re considering everything from corruption and constitutional reform to power grids, antiquities, and health care systems.
  • Aleppo is split between a regime side with vestiges of basic services, and a mostly depopulated rebel-controlled zone, into which the Islamic State and the Al Qaeda-affiliated Nusra Front have made inroads over the last year
  • The population exodus has claimed most of the city’s craftsmen, medical personnel, academics, and industrialists
  • It took decades to clear the moonscapes of rubble and to rebuild, in famous targets like Dresden and Hiroshima but in countless other places as well, from Coventry to Nanking. Some places never recovered their vitality.
  • Of course, Syrian planners cannot help but pay attention to the model closest to home: Beirut, a city almost synonymous with civil war and flawed reconstructio
  • We don’t want to end up like Beirut,” one of the Syrian planners says, referring to the physical problems but also to a postwar process in which militia leaders turned to corrupt reconstruction ventures as a new source of funds and power
  • Syria’s national recovery will depend in large part on whether its industrial powerhouse Aleppo can bounce back
  • Across Syria, more than one-third of the population is displaced.
  • Today, however, the city’s water and power supply are under the control of the Islamic State
  • The city’s workshops, famed above all for their fine textiles, export millions of dollars’ worth of goods every week even now, and the economy has expanded to include modern industry as well.
  • A river of rubble marks the no-man’s land separating the two sides. The only way to cross is to leave the city, follow a wide arc, and reenter from the far side.
  • Parts of the old city won’t be inhabitable for years, he told me by Skype, because the ground has literally shifted as a result of bombing and shelling
  • The first and more obvious is creating realistic options to fix the country after the war—in some cases literal plans for building infrastructure systems and positioning construction equipment, in other cases guidelines for shaping governanc
  • They’re familiar with global “best practices,” but also with how things work in Syria, so they’re not going to propose pie-in-the-sky idea
  • If some version of the current regime remains in charge, it will probably direct massive contracts toward patrons in Russia, China, or Iran. The opposition, by contrast, would lean toward firms from the West, Turkey, and the Gulf.
  • At the current level of destruction, the project planners estimate the reconstruction will cost at least $100 billion
  • Recently a panel of architects and heritage experts from Sweden, Bosnia, Syria, and Lebanon convened in Beirut to discuss lessons for Syria’s reconstruction—one of the many distinct initiatives parallel to the Future of Syria project.
  • “You should never rebuild the way it was,” said Arna Mackic, an architect from Mostar. That Bosnian city was divided during the 1990s civil war into Muslim and Catholic sides, destroying the city center and the famous Stari Most bridge over the Neretva River. “The war changes us. You should show that in rebuilding.”
  • Instead, Mackik says, the sectarian communities keep to their own enclaves. Bereft of any common symbols, the city took a poll to figure out what kind of statue to erect in the city center. All the local figures were too polarizing. In the end they settled on a gold-colored statue of the martial arts star Bruce Lee
  • “It belongs to no one,” Mackic says. “What does Bruce Lee mean to me?
  • is that it could offer the city’s people a form of participatory democracy that has so far eluded the Syrian regime and sadly, the opposition as well.
  • “You are being democratic without the consequences of all the hullabaloo of formal democratization
  • A great deal of money has been invested in Syria’s destruction— by the regime, the local parties to the conflict, and many foreign powers. A great deal of money will be made in the aftermath, in a reconstruction project that stands to dwarf anything seen since after World War II.
  • fcastro2 on 23 Feb 15
     
    While it is still unclear as to who will win the Syrian conflict, there are people who are already looking towards the future and a better Syria. Plans are being made but, of course, these plans will entirely depend on who wins the war. 
allieggg

Can Libya Rebuild Itself After 40 Years of Gaddafi? - 0 views

www.newsweek.com/f-after-40-years-gaddafi-68601

Gaddafi libya Arab Nationalism recontruction political tabula rasa Revolution politics middle east

shared by allieggg on 12 Nov 14 - No Cached
  • the man has hollowed out the Libyan state, eviscerated all opposition in Libyan society, and, in effect, created a political tabula rasa on which a newly free people will now have to scratch out a future.
  • Jamahiriya, a political system that is run directly by tribesmen without the intermediation of state institutions
  • the problem is, of course, that much like in the former Soviet satellites in Eastern Europe, virtually everyone at one point or another had to deal with the regime to survive.
  • ...25 more annotations...
  • Libya is truly a case apart.
  • the disastrous Italian legacy in Libya, has been a constant element in Gaddafi’s speeches since he took power
  • inspired by Gamal Abdel Nasser, neighboring Egypt’s president, whose ideas of Arab nationalism and of the possibility of restoring glory to the Arab world, would fuel the first decade of Gaddafi’s revolution.
  • he was unimpressed with the niceties of international diplomacy,
  • In a brilliant move that co-opted tribal elders, many of whom were also military commanders, he created the Social Leadership People’s Committee, through which he could simultaneously control the tribes and segments of the country’s military.
  • When it turned out that Libya, which was still a decentralized society in 1969, had little appetite for his centralizing political vision and remained largely indifferent to his proposals, the young idealist quickly turned activist.
  • Green Book, a set of slim volumes published in the mid-1970s that contain Gaddafi’s political philosophy, a blueprint is offered for a dramatic restructuring of Libya’s economy, politics, and society. In principle, Libya would become an experiment in democracy. In reality, it became a police state where every move of its citizens was carefully watched by a growing number of security apparatuses and revolutionary committees that owed loyalty directly to Gaddafi.
  • Having crushed all opposition by the mid-1970s, the regime systematically snuffed out any group that could potentially oppose it—any activity that could be construed as political opposition was punishable by death, which is one reason why a post-Gaddafi Libya, unlike a post-Mubarak Egypt, can have no ready-made opposition in a position to fill the vacuum.
  • The tribes—the Warfalla, the Awlad Busayf, the Magharha, the Zuwaya, the Barasa, and the smallest of them all, the Gadafa, to which he belonged—offered a natural form of political affiliation, a tribal ethos that could be tapped into for support. And perhaps, in the aftermath of Gaddafi, they could serve as a nucleus around which to build a new political system.
  • Gaddafi feared they might coalesce into groups opposing his rule. So, during the first two decades after the 1969 coup, he tried to erase their influence, arguing that they were an archaic element in a modern society.
  • comprehensive reconstruction of everything civic, political, legal, and moral that makes up a society and its government.
  • After systematically destroying local society, after using the tribes to cancel each other out, after aborting methodically the emergence of a younger generation that could take over Libya’s political life—all compounded by the general incoherence of the country’s administrative and bureaucratic institutions—Gaddafi will have left a new Libya with severe and longstanding challenges.
  • the growing isolation of Libya as international sanctions were imposed.
  • Lockerbie was the logical endpoint for a regime that had lost all international legitimacy.
  • while the regime still had the coercive power to put down any uprisings that took place in the 1990s, it became clear to Gaddafi’s closest advisers that the potential for unrest had reached unprecedented levels.
  • way out was to come to an agreement with the West that would end the sanctions, allow Libya to refurbish an aging oil infrastructure, and provide a safety valve by permitting Libyans to travel abroad once more.
  • intent to renounce weapons of mass destruction in December 2003—after a long process of behind-the-scenes diplomacy initially spearheaded by Britain
  • “The Revolution Everlasting” was one of the enduring slogans of his Libya, inscribed everywhere from bridges to water bottles.
  • regime that had, for four decades, mismanaged the country’s economy and humiliated its citizens
  • country was split in half, with eastern Cyrenaica and its main city Benghazi effectively independent—a demonstration of the kind of people’s power Gaddafi had always advocated. Reality, in effect, outgrew the caricature.
  • used a set of divide-and-rule policies that not only kept his opponents sundered from each other, but had also completely enfeebled any social or political institution in the country.
  • Beyond Gaddafi, there exists only a great political emptiness, a void that Libya somehow will need to fill.
  • the creation of a modern state where Libyans become true citizens, with all the rights and duties this entails.
  • the terrorist incidents
  • Regimes can use oil revenues strategically to provide patronage that effectively keeps them in power.
  • allieggg on 12 Nov 14
     
    This article from News Week basically paints a picture of Libyan history and how Gaddafi's reign devastated the state economically, socially, and politically. Author Dirk Vandewalle uses the phrase "a political tabula rasa" which in Latin means a blank slate, to describe the fate of Libya after Gaddafi's rule and convey the extent to which the country has to literally reconstruct every component that makes up a society and its government. He highlights major events that led to the downfall of both the Gaddafi regime and the Libyan state as a whole such as Arab nationalism, Jamahiriya, the Green Book, security apparatuses snuffing all opposition, terrorist incidents, isolation and international sanctions, the Lockerbie bombing, weapons of mass destruction, human right violations, divide and rule policies, and his use of oil revenue to fuel his insurgency. Vandewalle concludes the article with uncertain ideas thoughts towards Libya's future and the way the state is going to literally rebuild themselves from this "blank slate" that Gaddafi left behind. 
fcastro2

Syria crisis: Russia and China step up warning over strike - BBC News - 0 views

www.bbc.com/...world-us-canada-23845800

syria russia china politics US

shared by fcastro2 on 08 Apr 15 - No Cached
  • Russia and China have stepped up their warnings against military intervention in Syria, with Moscow saying any such action would have "catastrophic consequences" for the region
  • The US and its allies are considering launching strikes on Syria in response to deadly attacks
  • The US said there was "undeniable" proof of a chemical attack
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  • UN chemical weapons inspectors are due to start a second day of investigations in the suburbs of Damascus
  • UN team came under sniper fire as they tried to visit an area west of the city
  • US officials said there was "little doubt" that President Bashar al-Assad's government was to blame
  • Russian foreign ministry spokesman Alexander Lukashevich has called on the international community to show "prudence" over the crisis and observe international law.
  • Attempts to bypass the Security Council, once again to create artificial groundless excuses for a military intervention in the region are fraught with new suffering in Syria and catastrophic consequences for other countries of the Middle East and North Africa
  • US said it was postponing a meeting on Syria with Russian diplomats, citing "ongoing consultations" about alleged use of chemical weapons in Syria
  • The two sides had been due to meet in The Hague on Wednesday to discuss setting up an international conference on finding a political solution to the crisis
  • Western powers were rushing to conclusions about who may have used chemical weapons in Syria before UN inspectors had completed their investigation
  • Both the Syrian government and rebels have blamed each other for last Wednesday's attacks
  • Medical charity Medecins Sans Frontieres said three hospitals it supported in the Damascus area had treated about 3,600 patients with "neurotoxic symptoms", of whom 355 had died
  • UK is making contingency plans for military action in Syri
  • Earlier in the day, the UN convoy came under fire from unidentified snipers and was forced to turn back before resuming its journey
  • In the most forceful US reaction yet, US Secretary of State John Kerry on Monday described the recent attacks in the Damascus area as a "moral obscenity
  • Syrian government had something to hide
  • What we saw in Syria last week should shock the conscience of the world. It defies any code of moralit
  • President Obama believes there must be accountability for those who would use the world's most heinous weapons against the world's most vulnerable peopl
  • Analysts believe the most likely US action would be sea-launched cruise missiles targeting Syrian military installations.
  • the West had not produced any proof that President Assad's forces had used chemical weapons
  • some Western countries that military action against the Syrian government could be taken without a UN mandate
  • Mr Lavrov said the use of force without Security Council backing would be "a crude violation of international law
  • an international military response to the suspected use of chemical weapons would be possible without the backing of the UN
  • The UN Security Council is divided, with Russia and China opposing military intervention and the UK and France warning that the UN could be bypassed if there was "great humanitarian need".
  • if the West does not intervene to support freedom and democracy in Egypt and Syria, the Middle East will face catastrophe
  • fcastro2 on 08 Apr 15
     
    After Western powers suspected that the Syrian government used chemical weapons against the Syrian people, tensions grew against them and Russia, China, and Syria. The Eastern Powers believe that Western powers are overstepping their bounds for their need of power but the Western powers think that they need to interfere to help the people. 
allieggg

Davutoglu: Failure to support democracy led to ISIL Anadolu Agency - 0 views

www.aa.com.tr/...-support-democracy-led-to-isil

Davutoglu Turkey democracy middle east ISIL

shared by allieggg on 10 Oct 14 - No Cached
micklethwait liked it
  • The rise of the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant is caused by the world's failure to support democracy in the Middle East,
  • " ISIL now exists because we did not properly support the democratic transition processes in 2012, not becauseISIL is so strong or the Syrian and Iraqi people are aligned to ISIL-like radical acts."
  • "We welcomed the Arab Spring when it first began to flourish as we thought the EU and the U.S. would support and finance the Middle East just as they did for the wind of democracy in the Balkans,"
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  • Davutoglu said countries like Poland and Romania now enjoy democracy due to finance from the EU but, he added, "no state came up to finance democracy in the Middle East."
  • Syria faces a terrorist threat instead of  democracy is because the world abandonedSyria.
  • "Islamic communities that have a deep-rooted culture of politics have the capacity, like any other nation and religion, to both keep democracy alive and improve it,” he added. “Neither Islam nor the world of Islam can be correlated with entities like ISIL."
  • allieggg on 10 Oct 14
     
    Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu spoke at the World Economic Forum about the world's lack of assistance in the transition to democracy in the Middle East and how that ultimately facilitated the birth of ISIL. He explains how a number of EU states were able to maneuver into the democratic realm with the assistance and guidance of the EU, illuminating the idea that the Middle East should be no different. Davutoglu condemns the west for abandoning Middle Eastern states in their dire time of need. While countries around the world supported the Arab Spring, they did nothing to support or finance it to success. He says it would be wrong to correlate the birth of ISIL with Islam, explaining how Islamic communities are perfectly capable of embracing democratic systems. However, assistance in its implementation is vital.
allieggg

Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the Middle East's 30 year war » The Spectator - 0 views

www.spectator.co.uk/...armageddon-awaits

proxy wars leadership polarization US Saudi Iran the middle east war

shared by allieggg on 21 Nov 14 - No Cached
  • There are those who think that the region as a whole may be starting to go through something similar to what Europe went through in the early 17th century during the Thirty Years’ War, when Protestant and Catholic states battled it out. This is a conflict which is not only bigger than al-Qa’eda and similar groups, but far bigger than any of us. It is one which will re-align not only the Middle East, but the religion of Islam.
  • Either way there will be a need for a Treaty of Westphalia-style solution — a redrawing of boundaries in a region where boundaries have been bursting for decades.
  • But for the time being, a distinct and timeless stand-off between two regional powers, with religious excuses and religiously affiliated proxies will in all probability remain the main driver of this conflict.
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  • ‘Saudi Arabia is the custodian of the Two Holy Mosques and the birthplace of Islam. As such, it is the eminent leader of the wider Muslim world. Iran portrays itself as the leader of not just the minority Shiite world, but of all Muslim revolutionaries interested in standing up to the West.’
  • ‘Saudi Arabia will oppose any and all of Iran’s actions in other countries, because it is Saudi Arabia’s position that Iran has no right to meddle in other nations’ internal affairs, especially those of Arab states.’
  • Saudi officials more recently called for the Iranian leadership to be summoned to the International Criminal Court in The Hague for war crimes. Then, just the month before last, as the P5+1 countries eased sanctions on Iran after arriving at an interim deal in Geneva, Saudi saw its greatest fear — a nuclear Iran — grow more likely. And in the immediate aftermath of the Geneva deal, Saudi sources darkly warned of the country now taking Iranian matters ‘into their own hands’. There are rumours that the Saudis would buy nuclear bombs ‘off the shelf’ from their friends in Pakistan if Iran ever reaches anything like the nuclear threshold. In that  case, this Westphalian solution could be prefaced with a mushroom cloud.
  • allieggg on 21 Nov 14
     
    This article touches on an array of ideas but for the sake of my research I focused on the "Thirty Years War" section. Douglass Murray from The Spectator conveys the perspective that the Middle East is likely to be going through a similar 17th century European 30 years war, when Protestant and Catholics launched a full fledged war against one another. This means that religious war in the Middle East is so much bigger than just al-Qaeda and similar groups. The conflict will re-align the region, but also the entire religion of Islam. Douglass says the outcome would call for a Treaty of Westphalia-style solution, redrawing boundaries of a region where they've been bursting for decades.  For the time being the drivers of the conflict is a standoff between the two regional powers and their affiliated proxies, Saudi Arabia and Iran. 
fcastro2

Syria allies: Why Russia, Iran and China are standing by the regime - CNN.com - 1 views

www.cnn.com/...a-iran-china-russia-supporters

syria allies russia iran china middle east politics

shared by fcastro2 on 28 Jan 15 - No Cached
  • One has to do with economics; the other with ideology.
  • Russia is one of Syria's biggest arms suppliers
  • Syrian contracts with the Russian defense industry have likely exceeded $4 billion
  • ...29 more annotations...
  • Russia also leases a naval facility at the Syrian port of Tartu
  • Moscow also signed a $550 million deal with Syria for combat training jets
  • value of Russian arms sales to Syria at $162 million per year in both 2009 and 2010
  • Russia's key policy goal is blocking American efforts to shape the regio
  • Russia doesn't believe revolutions, wars and regime change bring stability and democracy
  • It believes humanitarian concerns are often used an excuse for pursuing America's own political and economic interests.
  • Putin's existential fear for his own survival and the survival of the repressive system that he and al-Assad represent
    • fcastro2
      fcastro2 on 28 Jan 15
       
      Putin is scared that the "west" will defeat Russia if Syria is defeated
  • not only driven by the need to preserve its naval presence in the Mediterranean, secure its energy contracts, or counter the West on 'regime change
  • al-Assad cannot lose because it means that one day he, Putin, might as well
  • The West handles the Islamic world the way a monkey handles a grenade," Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin tweeted
  • Russia is a permanent member of the U.N. Security Council. It has the power to veto Security Council resolutions against the Syrian regime and has done so repeatedly over the past two years
  • religion and strategy.
  • Islamic Republic has provided technical help such as intelligence, communications and advice on crowd control and weapons as protests in Syria morphed into resistance
  • The last thing Iran wants now is a Sunni-dominated Syria -- especially as the rebels' main supporters are Iran's Persian Gulf rivals: Qatar and Saudi Arabi
  • proxy through which Iran can threaten Israel with an arsenal of short-range missiles
  • Iran counted on Syria as its only Arab ally during its eight-year war with Iraq. Iraq was Sunni-dominate
  • war between the front of hegemony and the front of resistance
  • Syrian government is a victim of international plots
  • Iran says the main objective of this plot is to make the region safer for Israe
  • Many believe Iran is Washington's greatest threat in the region, especially with its nuclear potential
  • the Americans will sustain damage like when they interfered in Iraq and Afghanistan
  • Syria's third-largest importer in 2010, according to data from the European Commission
  • maintain its financial tie
  • indicates that China sees Syria as an important trading hub
  • China has said foreign countries shouldn't meddle in Syria's internal affairs
  • Rather than siding with either Assad or the opposition and standing aside to 'wait and see,' Beijing is actively betting on both
  • China said it is firmly opposed to the use of chemical weapons and supports the U.N.'s chemical weapons inspectors.
  • It also said it wants a political solution for Syri
  • China is a permanent member of the U.N. Security Council. And like Russia, China has repeatedly blocked sanctions attempts against the Syrian regime
  • fcastro2 on 28 Jan 15
     
    Syria's allies, Russia, Iran, and China, all stand by them despite western powers opposing the Syrian government. There are different reasons to why these powers seem to stay with Syria such as Russia's ideologies, Iran's strategy, or China's trading. Either way, these government will stand by them until there is nothing left to lose. 
irede123

Analysis: West, Regional Allies Paint Hezbollah as Major Threat while It Fighting ISIS ... - 0 views

en.abna24.com/...story.html

hezbollah west Israel

shared by irede123 on 08 May 16 - No Cached
  • irede123 on 08 May 16
     
    "Lebanese Hezbollah is fighting the ISIS terrorist group, but the West and Saudi Arabia apparently consider Hezbollah, not the ISIS, to be the major menace to their geopolitical interests."
allieggg

Egypt's Sissi Urges West to Support Libya - 0 views

www.voanews.com/...2528417.html

libya civil war US Intervention egypt ISIS politics war Sissi

shared by allieggg on 21 Nov 14 - No Cached
  • Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi called on the United States and Europe Thursday to help the Libyan army in its fight against Islamist militants now to save the country from requiring intervention on the scale of Iraq and Syria.
  • "When we deal with terrorism only in Iraq and Syria, Libya will begin to be an attractive region affecting the stability of ... Libya and its neighbors. We will need the same measures happening in Iraq and Syria to be taken in Libya," Sissi said in an interview with France 24.
  • "The international community -- Europe and the Americans -- must help the Libyan national army regain its position and combat terrorism in Libya to restore security and stability," he said.
  • ...3 more annotations...
  • Egypt is training anti-Islamist Libyan forces on its soil and sharing intelligence in a bid to stamp out militancy next door.
  • "If we intervened directly, I would not hesitate to announce that. But all we have done so far is to help the Libyan national army, the Libyan parliament, and the Libyan government," he said.
  • "There are no Egyptian armed forces in Libya," Sissi said. "We protect our borders from inside our borders."
  • andrea_hoertz on 21 Nov 14
     
    Sissi calls for internationals support on fighting Islamic power in Libya.
  • allieggg on 23 Nov 14
     
    The Voice of America reported President Sissi's call to the US and Europe to aid the Libyan army in their fight against ISIS, saving the country from requiring intervention on the scale of Iraq and Syria. Egypt has been training anti-Islamist forced on its own soil and sending them out to fight in Libya, but they have yet to intervene directly. He calls on the international community to help prevent further Islamic insurgency for the sake of stability throughout the region as a whole. 
diamond03

This film will battle a global epidemic prevalent in Egypt: sexual harassment | Egyptia... - 0 views

egyptianstreets.com/...ent-in-egypt-sexual-harassment

film egyptian harassment women

shared by diamond03 on 01 Oct 14 - No Cached
micklethwait liked it
  • Egypt:
  • sexual harassment
  • ‘Creepers on the Bridge’,
  • ...46 more annotations...
  • feeling of intimidation
  • Cairo
  • experience whe
  • n walking down Egyptian streets,
  • , The People’s Girls
  • issue of sexual harassment
  • perfect time to create a documentary that will analyze the causes, provide alternatives to traditional thought and document women fighting back in creative ways,” explained 22-year-old Colette Ghu
  • “Because we’re both frequently in the street alone, we both experience high levels of stares daily, as well as verbal harassment,
  • sexual harassment is still taboo in Cairo
  • to walk outside or take public transportation,
  • don’t want to deal with the intimidation and anxiety.
  • the United States, Latin America, Europe, South Asia- we’ve experienced various levels of sexual harassment.
  • three people with different views of sexual harassment and their daily lives surrounding the issue,
  • three Egyptians to reveal the extent of sexual harassment in Egypt and to get a better understanding of the issue,
  • Esraa is a 25-year-old Egyptian woman
  • challenges social norms by performing in storytelling theater pieces about sexual harassment
  • deters us
  • 8 out of 10 women experience sexual harassment in public transportation,
  • participating in anti-sexual harassment protests and events.”
  • members of society open up about their own experiences and perspectives.”
  • 99 percent of women in Egypt have faced sexual harassment.
  • degrees in higher education,
  • positive and negative ways
  • unfortunately become more widespread,
  • lack of police
  • gives harassers a sense of immunity
  • more commonplace and accepted.
  • President Sisi
  • police presence in the streets has increased, and more harassers have been brought to justice
  • Egyptian women have reached their boiling point in recent years, and inspired by the revolution, they have become a lot more outspoken
  • critics of Islam often end up blaming misogyny on religion.
  • sexual harassment is not specific to one religion.
  • here remains a common misbelief in the West that Egyptian, as well as all Arab women, are oppressed.
  • women in Egypt have been able to do basically anything a man can do
  • work and have a career
  • 2011 revolution had a big impact on the issue of sexual harassment,
  • high leadership roles
  • product of the news cycle following the US invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan
  • societal pressures for women to focus on getting married and starting a family.
  • very similar to the ones women in the West
  • no way means that all Egyptian men are harassers,
  • Arab or Muslim-specific issue.
  • a worldwide problem.”
  • two meanings that it has in Arabic
  • well-mannered, cultured, respectable girl,
  • “When people blame victims of sexual harassment, they often argue that if only the girl was a ‘people’s girl’ then she wouldn’t get harassed. The name is also an ode to all the girls and women of Egypt.”
  • diamond03 on 01 Oct 14
     
    Filmmakers are filming a film that talks about the sexual harassment issue that occurring in Egypt. Ninety-nine percent of women in Egypt have faced sexual harassment. It also shares the common misbeliefs that people believe due to American news. 
fcastro2

Syria's Assad says West wants to weaken Russia | Reuters - 0 views

www.reuters.com/...d-russia-idUSKBN0MN0GQ20150327

syria russia the west politics

shared by fcastro2 on 30 Mar 15 - No Cached
  • Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has accused the West of trying to weaken Russia by turning Ukraine into a puppet state, a tactic he said had also been used against his own country.
  • keep coming back to the fact that there is a connection between the Syrian crisis and what is happening in Ukraine
  • "Firstly because both countries are important for Russia, and secondly because the goal in both cases is to weaken Russia
  • ...4 more annotations...
  • The United States and the European Union have imposed economic sanctions on Russia over its role in the crisis in Ukraine.
  • Russia, a long-standing ally of Assad, denies sending troops and weapons to support separatists fighting government forces in east Ukraine
  • Assad will not attend, the president said those taking part should not lose sight of the main goal, clearly meaning restoring peace
  • Many Syrian opposition figures shunned the January talks, saying they would appear only at meetings that led to Assad's removal from power.
  • fcastro2 on 30 Mar 15
     
    Syria's President Assad claims that Western powers are trying to "weaken" Russia. Russia and Syria have been long time allies and so it is unclear what Russia will say to this. 
atownen

Israeli Soldiers Accidentally Kill Army Officer While Trying to Stop Attack - The New Y... - 0 views

www.nytimes.com/...ile-trying-to-stop-attack.html

Palestine israel West Bank shooting

shared by atownen on 24 Feb 16 - No Cached
  • atownen on 24 Feb 16
     
    Here is another perspective issued today from the New York Times; stating an Israeli soldier accidentally shot an army officer on the West Bank while they were aiming at a "Palestinian assailant trying to attack the officer." This author quotes the strife on the border as a "scene of numerous Palestinian attacks against Israelis."
fcastro2

Are China and Russia Moving toward a Formal Alliance? | The Diplomat - 0 views

thediplomat.com/...oving-toward-a-formal-alliance

china russia alliance politics

shared by fcastro2 on 04 Feb 15 - No Cached
    • fcastro2
      fcastro2 on 04 Feb 15
       
      Why is this relationship forming now? Ukraine Crisis, they want a multipolar world, China/Japan dispute, & Russia and the NATO expansions. 
    • fcastro2
      fcastro2 on 04 Feb 15
       
      Advocates for China-Russian alliance. Shared strategic interests and possible length of this alliance, U.S. and its Allies threat to Russia leaves in no choice but to side with China, but may lead to another cold war.
    • fcastro2
      fcastro2 on 04 Feb 15
       
      Opponents of China-Russian Alliance. China could be dragged to war by Russia, Russian's unwillingness to be a junior to China, Russia wants good relations with ALL Asian countries. They believe this alliance is unrealistic and a strategic partnership is more reasonable. 
  • ...25 more annotations...
  • In the joint statement issued by China and Russia, the main message is that China-Russia relations have reached a new stage of comprehensive strategic partnership and this will help increase both countries’ international status and influence, thus contributing to a more just international order
  • China secures a long-term (30 years) provision of natural gas from Russia and Russia can reduce its dependence on the European markets as well as strengthen Russia’s position against Western sanctions
  • Russia is now moving closer to China’s side with regard to the territorial disputes between China and Japan
  • China and Russia last week vetoed a draft UN resolution to send Syria to the International Criminal Court for war crimes. China and Russia had vetoed three previous UNSC resolutions condemning Syria
  • China and Russia signed a huge natural gas deal that is worth about $400 billion.
  • China and Russia will deepen cooperation under the Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building in Asia (CICA), a new security framework in Asia-Pacific that conveniently excludes the U.S. and Japan.
  • , the main trigger is the recent Ukraine crisis that has seriously damaged Russia-West relations
  • mutual strategic needs as both China and Russia want to create a multipolar world that is not dominated by the U.S., particularly as China faces threats from the US-led alliance in Asia
  • China’s chance of winning maritime disputes with Japan partly depends on maintaining a good relationship with Russia
  • the NATO expansion is a serious threat to Russia’s national security and as such Russia has to fight back
  • new China-Russia alliance is now emerging and this will eventually lead to a multi-polar world order.
  • problems in China-Russia relations such as historical mistrust, the lack of a common threat, and conflicting interests in Central Asia
  • he most important factor determining whether China and Russia should form an alliance is whether the two countries have shared strategic interests and how long such shared strategic interests can last
  • China nor Russia could become a member of the Western bloc led by the U.S. because other allies of the U.S. would feel threatened by China and Russia
  • thus Russia has no better alternative to siding with China
  • , China’s number two position in the world means that China will not be supported by the U.S. with regard to most international affairs issues
  • Yan also refutes the argument that a China-Russia alliance against the U.S. would lead to another cold war.
  • ould be potentially high costs of such an alliance due to common problems such as fears of abandonment and entrapment
  • U.S. militarily threatens both China and Russia at the same time
  • Russia is unwilling to be China’s junior partner in the relationship
  • Russia wants to maintain good relations with all Asian states and thus will not side with China when it comes to territorial disputes between China and Japan
  • China-Russia alliance is unrealistic and a strategic partnership is more flexible and better for China.
  • seems that in the near future a formal alliance between China and Russia will not happen due to a variety of reasons.
  • China could be dragged into an unnecessary war by Russia
  • , a formal alliance will not occur
kbrisba

PressTV-Tunisian forces kill nine militants - 0 views

www.presstv.ir/...ian-forces-kill-nine-militants

shared by kbrisba on 29 Mar 15 - No Cached
  • kbrisba on 29 Mar 15
     
    In the west-central part of Tunisia, military forces have killed at least nine militants during an operation carried out in the late hours of Saturday in Gafsa region. Military forces also confiscated arms and explosives from the terrorists. Reports say the militants were members of the so-called Okba Ibn Nafaa Brigade which is believed to be behind the deadly attack on the Bardo Museum in the capital on March 18.
amarsha5

Turkey's Erdogan denounces US support for Syrian Kurds - BBC News - 0 views

www.bbc.com/...world-middle-east-35541003

turkey syria refugees support

shared by amarsha5 on 10 Feb 16 - No Cached
  • he refugees have fled an offensive by Syrian government forces and Iranian-backed militias,
  • Turkey says the PYD, on which the US relies to b
  • Syria, is an offshoot of the banned Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK).
  • ...7 more annotations...
  • More than 500 people, including dozens of civilians, have been killed since the assault began 10 days ago
  • urkey has already taken in more than 2.5 million Syrian refugees over the past five years and says it will continue to do so in a "controlled fashion".
  • rkey would be indirectly contributing to "ethnic cleansing" in northern Syria by the government.
  • urkey's president asked in a speech: "Are you on our side or the side of the terrorist PYD and PKK organisation?"
  • While Turkey sees the PYD and YPG as offshoots of the banned PKK, the US does not and believes they are the only effective force against IS on the ground in Syria, reports the BBC's Mark Lowen in Istanbul.
  • France's outgoing Foreign Minister, Laurent Fabius, also questioned the commitment of the US to resolve the crisis in Syria on Wednesday, saying its "ambiguous" policy was contributing to the problem.
  • But he warned: "We feel that we were sold to the Russians, and that the West has abandoned us."
  • joepouttu on 10 Feb 16
     
    Turkey has denounced the United States for providing support to the Democratic Union Party, who any are calling a terrorist group. This is contributing to the bloodshed. 
  • mcooka on 10 Feb 16
     
    Turkey is mad at U/S over their support for Syria's Kurdish group. Turkey claims them as a terrorist group. Refugees are still fleeing from Syria.
  • amarsha5 on 11 Feb 16
     
    US support of Syrian extremist group, the Democratic Union Party, has been denounced by Turkish president Erdogan. The recent fighting has displaced 50,000 people and cut off key supply routes for bringing in aid. Turkey has vowed to continue to accept refugees.w
sambofoster

How the West Undermined Women's Rights in the Arab World - 1 views

www.jadaliyya.com/...n%E2%80%99s-rights-in-the-arab

Women Activism Arab World

shared by sambofoster on 23 Feb 16 - No Cached
  • pvaldez2 on 23 Feb 16
     
    This article is based on some of the research that Nicola Pratt conducted over the past two years on women's activism in Egypt, Lebanon, and Jordan, from independence until the Arab uprisings. Nicola collected over one hundred personal narratives from middle class women activists of different generations. The article includes the rise of radical movements after 1967, the counter-revolution (post-1967), and re-popularizing and de-popularizing women's rights after 2011.
  • sambofoster on 31 Mar 16
     
    This article is based on some of the research that I have conducted over the past two years on women's activism in Egypt, Lebanon, and Jordan, from independence until the Arab uprisings. I collected over one hundred personal narratives from middle class women activists of different generations.
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