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allieggg

Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the Middle East's 30 year war » The Spectator - 0 views

  • There are those who think that the region as a whole may be starting to go through something similar to what Europe went through in the early 17th century during the Thirty Years’ War, when Protestant and Catholic states battled it out. This is a conflict which is not only bigger than al-Qa’eda and similar groups, but far bigger than any of us. It is one which will re-align not only the Middle East, but the religion of Islam.
  • Either way there will be a need for a Treaty of Westphalia-style solution — a redrawing of boundaries in a region where boundaries have been bursting for decades.
  • But for the time being, a distinct and timeless stand-off between two regional powers, with religious excuses and religiously affiliated proxies will in all probability remain the main driver of this conflict.
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  • ‘Saudi Arabia is the custodian of the Two Holy Mosques and the birthplace of Islam. As such, it is the eminent leader of the wider Muslim world. Iran portrays itself as the leader of not just the minority Shiite world, but of all Muslim revolutionaries interested in standing up to the West.’
  • ‘Saudi Arabia will oppose any and all of Iran’s actions in other countries, because it is Saudi Arabia’s position that Iran has no right to meddle in other nations’ internal affairs, especially those of Arab states.’
  • Saudi officials more recently called for the Iranian leadership to be summoned to the International Criminal Court in The Hague for war crimes. Then, just the month before last, as the P5+1 countries eased sanctions on Iran after arriving at an interim deal in Geneva, Saudi saw its greatest fear — a nuclear Iran — grow more likely. And in the immediate aftermath of the Geneva deal, Saudi sources darkly warned of the country now taking Iranian matters ‘into their own hands’. There are rumours that the Saudis would buy nuclear bombs ‘off the shelf’ from their friends in Pakistan if Iran ever reaches anything like the nuclear threshold. In that  case, this Westphalian solution could be prefaced with a mushroom cloud.
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    This article touches on an array of ideas but for the sake of my research I focused on the "Thirty Years War" section. Douglass Murray from The Spectator conveys the perspective that the Middle East is likely to be going through a similar 17th century European 30 years war, when Protestant and Catholics launched a full fledged war against one another. This means that religious war in the Middle East is so much bigger than just al-Qaeda and similar groups. The conflict will re-align the region, but also the entire religion of Islam. Douglass says the outcome would call for a Treaty of Westphalia-style solution, redrawing boundaries of a region where they've been bursting for decades.  For the time being the drivers of the conflict is a standoff between the two regional powers and their affiliated proxies, Saudi Arabia and Iran. 
amarsha5

How long can Saudi Arabia afford Yemen war? - Al-Monitor: the Pulse of the Middle East - 14 views

  • long history of political animosity; this is a history that continues until our present day.
    • joepouttu
       
      "However, as Saleh continued to kill, these countries had no choice but to issue a forceful declaration to show that they were not in favor of Saleh's relentless, murderous campaign to ignore a civil war in Yemen." pg 128
  • Yemen's treasury was burdened by the costs of unification such as paying for southern civil servants to move to the new capital, Sanaa, and paying interest on its massive debt. On top of its other economic challenges, Yemen was to absorb the shock of 800,000 returnees and their pressure on the already weak job market. With their return, the estimated $350 million a month in remittances
    • joepouttu
       
      "My father had decided to leave Eritrea and return to Yemen, his homeland, after long years of exile..." pg 110
  • Civil war broke out in the summer of 1994 in what could be interpreted as a symptom of economic failure.
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  • By 1995 the Yemeni government implemented a program of macroeconomic adjustment and structural reforms with support from the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund and reduced spending on defense and civil service and cut subsidies. The Yemeni economy started showing signs of recovery and stability.
  • Masood Ahmed, director of the IMF’s Middle East and Central Asia Department, wrote in 2012 that “fiscal sustainability will be an issue” for Gulf Cooperation Council countries. In its 2012 regional economic outlook, the IMF recommended to “curtail current expenditures while protecting the poor” as a response to the risk of declining oil prices.
  • Policies to cut spending were unlikely to be introduced in a monarchy like Saudi Arabia, especially after the Arab Spring, where tax-paying citizens along with non-tax-paying Bahrainis and next-door Yemenis went out on the streets to claim their rights in shaping the policies that govern their daily lives. The risk of people demanding more political rights was growing and cutting spending was not the optimal strategy for the kingdom.
    • joepouttu
       
      "The students of Sanaa were unique, marching straight out onto the street from their classrooms and chanting, 'The people demand the fall of the President and the regime.'" pg 126
  • As the kingdom continued its generous fiscal policy by providing more benefits to its citizens in response to the people’s dissatisfaction with the economic and political situation, it ran a deficit of 3.4% of GDP in 2014 due to a fall in oil revenues.
  • The kingdom's economic reforms of raising gas and diesel prices, cutting fuel subsidies in half and supporting the introduction of a GCC-wide value-added tax might ease the pressure of sustaining a war for nine months and perhaps longer. These structural reforms were long overdue and their introduction at this time is revealing.
    • amarsha5
       
      CIG pg. 120 -> "We live in a world with many layers of linkages between countries. Nations will exchange goods and services through trade and will engage in cross-border investments from bank loans to setting up businesses. Each of these linkages can serve as a transmission mechanism in a time of crisis."
  • the political inclusion of the taxpaying citizen. It's a price the kingdom is now willing to pay, as we have seen Saudi women not only
  • and suffered an uprising fueled by anger at economic failure. The Saudi economy is trying to absorb
  • As they introduce revenue-collecting mechanisms, they should also reform mechanisms of capital transfer to the public to minimize the gap between the rich and the poor, as it is known that the poor are the most affected by tighter revenue-collecting policies. Otherwise, the Saudi war on Yemen will mark the beginning of an economic downturn that will surely spill over onto its political system in the long run.
    • joepouttu
       
      "So the young revolutionaries fight on, until all their demands are met and they are free to build their State: a state founded on social justice and equality between all citizens where Saleh's reign is just a page in the history books." pg 129
    • amarsha5
       
      CIG pg. 116 -> "Globalization, in the shape of freer trade and multinational investments, has been generally a force for good and economic prosperity. But it has also advanced, rather than harmed, social agendas"
    • ccfuentez
       
      But it became apparent that Saleh was not going to leave me to my own devices. He declared war in mid-1994, occupying the South and defeating the Socialist Party. Everything was finished, or so I believed. Its property stolen by the regime, the paper shut down, and once more I found myself broken, defeated and without hope. Worse, I was a known employee of the Socialist Party through my work at the paper. In the region where I lived agents for the regime had been hunting down and detaining anyone who had belonged to the Socialist Party or getting them fired from their jobs. Although I had not been a party member myself, just worked at a party newspaper, the regime made no distinction. My mother intervened, however, and hid me. She wouldn't let me out of the house. My mother always protects me.   (2013-12-31). Diaries of an Unfinished Revolution: Voices from Tunis to Damascus (p. 115). Penguin Publishing Group. Kindle Edition. 
    • atownen
       
      Civil War: in 1994 Jamal currently in high school, describes the times as a world, when the color of his skin would define him. The Civil War, "interpreted as a symptom of economic failure", was evident in the reading when Jamal described the lack of jobs as a college graduate, members of the socialist party were completely shut out when Saleh took the presidency, depriving hard workers the ability to integrate into the economy. 
    • ccfuentez
       
      CIG Ch. 4 -> in relation to international rulemaking on fiscal policy -> is international intervention needed to contain and reverse financial crises in countries, esp. when it comes to the human rights and economic equality of citizens
    • mcooka
       
      Relating to page 120 Sanaa could not find work after college. While his degree wasn't very fluid, he was unable to find work for about 5 years. He got into journalism which blacklisted him against the government. Now he is unemployed again. 
    • mcooka
       
      This paragraph, while not highlighted, is important to the idea of globalization and why the war is not stopping. There is a flow of revenue from these oil prices that Yemen is reliant on, but they are also competing with countries that produce higher amounts of oil. This would have happened during the time Sanaa was in College writing scathing articles
    • mcooka
       
       On page 113 around this time the author was working as a journalist for the newspaper. 
    • mcooka
       
      Related to page 129 Sanaa is still living in hiding and in poverty. The animosity keeps him in fear. 
    • csherro2
       
      Market liberalization outlook
    • csherro2
       
      When Saleh came to power he and the leader of the southern part of Yemen, Salem al-Beid, agreed to coesxist as leaders of Yemen.  WIthin weeks of this in play, Saleh began to try to make the south his and this created the civil war.  
    • csherro2
       
      Jamal notes that the standard of living in Yemen was decreasing gradually the longer Saleh stayed in power.  
    • csherro2
       
      People, including Jamal, were writing about the Saleh regime and how they were upset with them.  
    • csherro2
       
      When Saleh's son was coming into power, Jamal saw that Yemen was moving towards a monarchy, realizing that his and the country's future was in the hands of an unqualified person.  
aavenda2

Saudi Arabia's Muhanna Sees Oil Recovering From 'Temporary' Drop - 0 views

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    An article of Saudi oil leaders projecting their optimistic views on the future of the oil economy. + a very interesting quote "Saudi Arabia sets its crude prices based on refining margins and not politics, al-Muhanna said."
aavenda2

Iran's Supreme Leader Lashes Out at Saudi Arabia's Intervention in Yemen - 0 views

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    Iran's supreme leader warned Saudi Arabia that its military intervention in Yemen would end in military defeat
kkerby223

Saudi Arabia Warns Women Not to Protest Against Driving Laws - 0 views

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    This article is about Saudi Arabia announcing women to not join in protest regarding the law banning women from driving. Although there are many leaders trying to change the law, many other leaders want to enforce it. There is a thought that if women want drive they will have interactions with men that they should not.
eyadalhasan

Iran, Saudi Arabia in War of Words After Cleric's Execution - 0 views

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    Rising tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia were given fresh fuel Monday with both sides issuing tit-for-tat verbal volleys. Regional rivals Saudi Arabia and Iran have been trading blows in an escalating war of words since Saturday following the former's move to execute prominent Shiite opposition cleric Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr. Iran's Shiite leaders blasted the Sunni kingdom verbally, while protesters in Tehran stormed the Saudi Arabian embassy.
mjumaia

The question of succession in Saudi Arabia - 1 views

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    This Article explain how Saudi Arabia is moving toward Political succession and also talks about that Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz al-Saud has passed away after nearly 10 years as the country's top leader. "King Abdullah isn't a reformer but a modernist. There's a difference," Ali Alyami, director of the Centre for Democracy and Human Rights in Saudi Arabia, told Al Jazeera. He has empower saudi's women in so many ways. which is illustrated in toward the end of the article .
aavenda2

​Saudi Arabia confident oil prices will rise, won't cut output - 1 views

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    Saudi Arabia Minister blames the recent decline in oil prices on speculators and lack of cooperation between oil leaders. They are refusing to cut down on their oil production and state "the best thing for everybody is to let the most efficient produce."
kkerby223

Did Saudi's King Abdullah have a soft spot for women's progress? - Fortune - 0 views

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    Saudi Arabia former leader, King Abdullah, who passed away recently, seemed to be pushing for a slow reform in women's rights. While in power, many small but worthy advances were made for Saudi women. One of the most notable of these advances would be the role of women in the work force growing exponentially.
aavenda2

Saudi Arabia was worried about a danger much bigger than shale when it blindsided oil m... - 0 views

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    This article talks about the strategical approaches from Oil leaders including Saudi Arabia to maintain control of their market share, and how they use their oil as a "Weapon" in the sense that their decisions financially affect other countries greatly.
zackellogg

Qatar-Gulf deal forces expulsion of Muslim Brotherhood leaders - 1 views

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    As part of a 2013 agreement signed in the Saudi Arabian capitol of Riyadh, Qatar has agreed to expel exiled leaders of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood that have taken up residence in the country that has traditionally supported them. The Muslim Brotherhood is seen as an extremist organization by many Arab states and the West but Qatar and Turkey are still supporters of them however pressures from the threat of ISIS finally coerced Qatar to honor the 2013 agreement. The exiled leaders have already been welcomed into Turkey however.
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    This article discusses Qatar's agreement to expel any exiled leaders of the Muslim Brotherhood. This is just one of the many agreements that Qatar is forced to abide by under Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. This decision was made as a way of shifting political alignments.
eyadalhasan

Saudi Arabia's Key to Security Is Not the Sword - 0 views

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    Saudi Arabia's mass execution of 47 people on January 2 was a bloody emblem in the country's self-marketing as a leader in the global campaign against ISIS and other armed extremist groups. But it was also a stark example of what Saudi Arabia, and many other countries, are getting wrong in that effort.
allieggg

The New Arab Cold War - 0 views

  • It stretches from Iraq to Lebanon and reaches into North Africa, taking lives in the Sinai Peninsula, Egypt's Western Desert, and now Libya
  • this violence is the result of a nasty fight between regional powers over who will lead the Middle East
  • The recent Egyptian and Emirati airstrikes on Libyan Islamist militias is just one manifestation of this fight for leadership among Turkey, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). All these countries have waded into conflicts in Iraq, Syria, Egypt, Bahrain, and now Libya in order to establish themselves as regional leaders.
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  • Turkish government has become a leading advocate of regime change in Syria. Unwilling to intervene in the Syrian civil war and unable to coax the United States to do so, Ankara turned a blind eye to extremist groups that used Turkish territory to take up the fight against Assad.
  • Barack Obama's attempt to disentangle the United States from the Middle East's many conflicts has only intensified these rivalries. From a particular perspective, Iraq's chaos, Syria's civil war, Libya's accelerating disintegration, and Hosni Mubarak's fall all represent failures of American leadership.
  • Yet these regional contenders for power have rarely achieved their goals. Instead, they have fueled violence, political conflict, and polarization, deepening the endemic problems in the countries they have sought to influence. 
  • Yet the war of words between Ankara and Cairo since then and the support that the Turkish government has extended to the Muslim Brotherhood
  • has only contributed to the political polarization and instability in Egypt
  • Qatar has been less circumspect than others in its support for groups fighting in Syria and Iraq, both offering official funding to Islamist groups in Syria and allowing private contributions to groups including al-Nusra Front, al Qaeda's Syrian affiliate.
  • These conflicts have less to do with Iran and the Sunni-Shiite divide than widely believed. Rather, they represent a fracturing of Washington's Sunni allies in the Middle East. Left to their own devices, the proxy wars the Saudis, Emiratis, Qataris, and Turks are waging among themselves will continue to cause mayhem
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    This article basically states that since the US's withdrawal from Middle Eastern affairs, regional actors were left to fight over who will lead the region's future. The fight is baiscally a run off between Turkey, Qatar, Saudi, and the UAE, each country doing their part intervening in conflicts aiding their supported side. Rather than achieving goals, these proxy wars have fueled the violence, chaos, and polarization deepening the problems they originally sought to mend. While the US has succeeded in abstaining from Mid East affairs, the question now is whether or not they should continue this resignation or step in to urge for order and peace. 
mjumaia

Tensions escalate between Saudi Arabia and Iran - 0 views

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    As we all see the war in Yemen is really way larger that the land of Yemen. It seems like indirect war between Saudi Arabia and Iran. This video talks more about what the roles of Saudi Arabia and Iran.
tdford333

Al-Qaeda franchise in Yemen exploits chaos to rebuild, officials say - The Washington Post - 0 views

  • Al-Qaeda franchise in Yemen exploits chaos to rebuild, officials say
  • Elite Yemeni units that the United States trained to hunt al-Qaeda have been scrambled by the government’s collapse. And millions of dollars’ worth of U.S.-provided military equipment has been destroyed in a span of days by Saudi airstrikes aimed at rendering those arms useless to the Iran-backed rebels who control the capital.
  • The vacuum, U.S. officials say, appears to have allowed al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula to focus on rebuilding its strength after years of U.S. drone strikes against its leaders.
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    Millions of dollars of US provided military equipment has been destroyed by saudi airstrikes against the Houthi rebels. The power vacuum in the area has allowed AQAP to rebuild itself. U.S. officials said that the CIA's armed drones are still flying over Yemen, prepared to launch strikes against AQAP members.
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    Millions of dollars of US provided military equipment has been destroyed by saudi airstrikes against the Houthi rebels. The power vacuum in the area has allowed AQAP to rebuild itself. U.S. officials said that the CIA's armed drones are still flying over Yemen, prepared to launch strikes against AQAP members.
jreyesc

Islamic State leader Baghdadi reportedly resurfaces | World news | The Guardian - 0 views

  • calling for attacks in Saudi Arabia and for “volcanoes of jihad” across the world.
  • “America and its allies are terrified, weak, and powerless,”
  • repeatedly attacking “the Jews” and “apostate” and “treacherous” Muslim (Arab) leaders who feared the return of the Muslim faithful to the ways of the caliphate.
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  • “commander of the faithful”
  • “Caliph of the Muslims”
  • classical Arabic shot through with expressions of Muslim piety in the extremist takfiri tradition
  • “lying media” in claiming that the coalition, which includes Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Jordan and Bahrain,
  • “Be assured, O Muslims, for your state is good and in the best condition,” Baghdadi declared. “Its march will not stop and it will continue to expand, by Allah’s permission. The march of the mujahidin [Muslim holy warriors] will continue until they reach Rome. And soon, the Jews and Crusaders will be forced to come down to the ground and send their ground forces to their deaths and destruction.”
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    Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi is one of the main leaders for the Islamic State. Earlier this year there were rumors that he had been injured or killed by an air strike. But now there are rumors that he might still be alive.
wmulnea

The new economics of oil: Sheikhs v shale | The Economist - 0 views

  • The contest between the shalemen and the sheikhs has tipped the world from a shortage of oil to a surplus.
  • Big importing countries such as the euro area, India, Japan and Turkey are enjoying especially big windfalls. Since this money is likely to be spent rather than stashed in a sovereign-wealth fund, global GDP should rise.
  • There will, of course, be losers (see article). Oil-producing countries whose budgets depend on high prices are in particular trouble. The rouble tumbled this week as Russia’s prospects darkened further. Nigeria has been forced to raise interest rates and devalue the naira. Venezuela looks ever closer to defaulting on its debt
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  • But Saudi Arabia, in particular, seems mindful of the experience of the 1970s, when a big leap in the price prompted huge investments in new fields, leading to a decade-long glut.
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    This article suggests that increased shale oil production is changing the economy of oil, but at the same time Saudi Arabia is reluctant to slow OPEC production.
eyadalhasan

The Arab spring, five years on - 0 views

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    Charting five years since the onset of the Arab spring.The Arab revolutions produced few leaders, few credible programmes for action, and few ideas.
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