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Contents contributed and discussions participated by Gerald Hussen

Gerald Hussen

Corliss Online Group Financial Mag: Can Hong Kong Solve Scotland's Currency 'Fankle'? - 1 views

Corliss Online Group Financial Mag
started by Gerald Hussen on 01 Mar 14 no follow-up yet
  • Gerald Hussen
     
    Scottish nationalists are in a quandary: how to dissolve the three-century bond with the United Kingdom while preserving their monetary link with the British pound.

    And Hong Kong may provide the answer.

    Nationalists want to retain the British pound if they win September's independence vote, but U.K. political leaders ruled out sharing sterling earlier this month. They fear taxpayers would have to back Scotland in times of economic trouble, much as shared use of the euro forced Germany to bail out Greece.

    Ditch the union if you want, but say goodbye to sterling, is the message from London.

    This creates a bit of a fankle - a Scottish term for a state of disarray, even panic - for the Scottish nationalists. But they may have another card to play.

    A currency board could allow Scotland to effectively keep the pound even without consent from the Bank of England, said John Greenwood, the chief economist at Invesco who helped design Hong Kong's dollar peg, which has held for 31 years.

    "If Scotland were to set up a currency board for a Scottish pound that remained at parity (1:1) with the English pound, the trade, current and capital account balances of Scotland would remain broadly unchanged, unless there was some major change in the economic circumstances of either country," he said in an email.

    This arrangement would require sufficient foreign reserves in British pounds to fully cover the amount of currency in circulation and the total held on deposit by commercial banks for interbank clearing transactions. Hong Kong, for example, holds $312.2 billion. See more Financial News

    Some naysayers argue it might be hard for Scotland to build up such reserves.

    Nomura, in a research report, contends that raising the required amount of reserves could be a "painful" process for Scotland. The bank asks how much of the U.K's foreign reserves an independent Scotland would be entitled to in the event of a breakup, estimating that a share proportional to the size of the Scottish economy would only provide $4.5 billion, or about 7% of the total reserves needed for a currency board. Scotland may also have to negotiate to draw down its share of the U.K.'s reserves held by the IMF.

    A currency board might also make the Scottish pound vulnerable to speculative attack. Defending a currency board against short sellers can be politically painful, said Joseph Yam, a research fellow at the Chinese University of Hong Kong who as chief executive of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, fought off speculators including George Soros' Quantum Fund during the Asian Financial Crisis.

    "In the case of capital outflow, for whatever reasons, interest rates could rocket to very high levels and severe pain correspondingly inflicted on those shorting the currency as well as the economy; the latter may be so politically unacceptable as to lead to political pressure to abandon the currency board arrangement," he said in an email.

    The Hong Kong Monetary Authority declined to comment on whether it had been consulted over a Scottish currency board.

    Britain has been beaten by speculators before. George Soros' attacks on "Black Wednesday" in 1992 forced the U.K. to break its fixed exchange rate with the precursor of the euro, trashing the economic credibility of the British conservative government, which would spend 13 years out of power.

    The Bank of England hiked interest rates from 8.8% to as much as 15% before capitulating. Current Prime Minister David Cameron, then aged 25, worked behind the scenes on the government's policy response.

    Mr. Greenwood agrees that speculative attacks would be possible. However, he said, "If Scotland were to follow the disciplines of Hong Kong in relation to fiscal policy, banking soundness, and the avoidance of leverage then there should be nothing to fear, and the Scottish pound could maintain parity with the English pound."

    Hong Kong defended its peg during the Asian crisis by buying up HK$118 billion of stocks and index futures, a move which later drew praise from Mr. Soros himself.

    The above article is a repost from WSJ
Gerald Hussen

Hong Kong forecasts fastest economic growth in 3 years - 1 views

Corliss Online Group Financial Mag Hong Kong forecasts fastest economic growth in 3 years
started by Gerald Hussen on 28 Feb 14 no follow-up yet
  • Gerald Hussen
     
    Hong Kong's economy is expected to expand at its fastest pace in three years in 2014, the government said on Wednesday, while slashing public welfare spending as it cautioned over global economic headwinds and projected a narrowing budget surplus.



    Corliss Online Financial Mag: Hong Kong's economy is expected to expand at its fastest pace in three years in 2014, the government said on Wednesday, while slashing public welfare spending as it cautioned over global economic headwinds and projected a narrowing budget surplus.

    Financial Secretary John Tsang forecast growth of between three and four per cent, up from 2.9 per cent in 2013, as he announced a 40 per cent cut in welfare spending even as the government struggles to quell popular discontent over the city's high living costs and widening wealth gap.

    He warned the global economic outlook remained uncertain as the winding back of US monetary stimulus added to the risk of capital outflows and the sluggish eurozone recovery remained a cause for concern.

    "The US economy may see some improvement in 2014. Nevertheless, there is still uncertainty over the Federal Reserve Board's... strategy and interest rate policy. Possible market fluctuations and the risk of reversal of capital flows will cast shadows... this year," Tsang said as he unveiled the annual budget.

    Tsang earmarked HK$20 billion ($2.58 billion) for one-off assistance for citizens such as tax cuts and welfare payments, down from HK$33 billion last year.

    He projected a budget surplus of HK$12 billion, compared to HK$64.9 billion last year owing partly to reduced tax revenue from foreign companies based in Hong Kong which have witnessed a slowdown in global business.

    "The dilemma facing the government is to strike the right balance and to ensure that the different classes within the society will benefit from the economic success of Hong Kong," So Kwok-kay from PricewaterhouseCoopers Hong Kong told AFP.

    Hong Kong's leader Leung Chun-ying last month announced plans to tackle rising poverty in a policy speech, unveiling a raft of welfare policies for the working poor.

    Under one HK$3 billion scheme, some low-income families will receive extra subsidies such as a HK$1,000 allowance a month.

    "We were expecting a decrease in (such) relief measures because of the lower surplus compared to prior years," Wilson Cheng from the Taxation Institute of Hong Kong told AFP. Read more Financial News

    The above article is a repost from ChannelNewsAsia.
Gerald Hussen

Refining the growth strategy by Corliss Online Group Financial magazine - 1 views

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    Outside the portfolios' 'Themes' and 'Commercial property' sectors, regular readers will know that the strategy guiding both portfolios since their inception five years ago has been to 'Go high, go deep and go east'. The emphasis has been on higher-yielding blue-chips and bonds, smaller companies and the Far East (including Japan from the end of 2012). This has served both portfolios well. However, the time has come to modestly refine the strategy for the Growth portfolio given market conditions and its freedom from an income constraint.
Gerald Hussen

Corliss Online Group Financial magazine on Top 10 tips for female entrepreneurs - 1 views

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    A study last year by the department for business revealed that - finally - more women are taking the plunge and launching their own businesses. The number is still pretty low - just nineteen per cent of SMEs are female-led, according to the study, but, more encouragingly, a quarter of new businesses - two to three years old - were formed by women. I was fortunate enough to speak at an all-female business event held by the New Entrepreneurs Foundation last week to drive more women to apply for its new programme, which got me really thinking about how we can encourage more women to choose the enterprise path, like I did. Something Anne Marie Morris MP mentioned in her speech really brought it home - women-led businesses contribute £70 billion to the UK economy. That is surely too significant a figure to ignore?!
Gerald Hussen

Corliss Online Group Financial magazine 8 Financial Planning Tips - 1 views

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    If you're like most Americans, you probably didn't make a new year's resolution to get started with long-term financial planning. A staggering 84 percent of respondents to a New Year's Resolution Survey from Allianz Life Insurance said that financial planning was not among their 2014 resolutions at all-the highest percentage ever to reveal that in the survey's history. What held them back? Well, 30 percent said they don't believe they make enough money to "worry" about financial planning. That's bizarre. Shouldn't having less money increase your need to manage what you have effectively? Regardless of your situation, I hope you'll engage in the planning process this year-and the sooner you get started, the better.
Gerald Hussen

Winners and losers in the new China by Corliss Online Group Financial magazine - 1 views

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    "It will be very painful and even feel like cutting one's wrist." So predicted Li Keqiang, China's premier, as he discussed the task ahead of him during his first press conference last March. Not the most inviting prospect for investors looking to make a play on China. But they should certainly take heed of these words. Li is the man who, together with president Xi Jinping, must lead a reform programme regarded by analysts as the most fundamental in decades. It will affect almost every part of an economy worth $9.4tn (Britain's annual output, for comparison, is $2.4tn). So what are these reforms? And why does China's new leader think that their implementation will be so painful? There are three key areas which investors should note.
Gerald Hussen

Corliss Online Group Financial magazine on Travel Talk - 1 views

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    I'm grumpy about flying these days. Part of it is just the hassle of the process, but now there's even more. Bud and I had a decades-long strategy of managing our US Airways frequent flier status to maximize free upgrades on domestic and European routes, as well as to secure virtually free first-class seats on flights to Oceania, Southeast Asia and Africa. Trust me, there's nothing like being pampered in first class on Singapore Air to take the sting out of flying! Sadly, airline rewards and loyalty benefits are going the way of free meals - or free anything - in the air.
Gerald Hussen

Corliss Online Group Financial magazine on how to get out of credit card debt faster - 1 views

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    IT'S time to come clean about our dirty credit card habits and how we can avoid them eroding our wealth. While we've all been slowly reducing our outstanding credit card balances, with $34 billion still owing, they remain the scourge of most families. It's fair to say credit cards are the most potent weapon of mass financial destruction since the loan shark. Their convenience and flexibility means it's so easy for them to get out of hand and lead to serious financial distress. We need to be vigilant in ensuring our credit cards work for us and don't destroy our finances. To avoid getting into trouble in the first place, or get back in control of an existing debt, here are our five golden rules for using credit cards.
Gerald Hussen

The Corliss Online Group Financial Magazine: 8 Tips for Financial Wellness - 1 views

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    Often at the start of a new year, one of our most popular resolutions is to become more financially stable and responsible. Overspending and overextending ourselves often comes from a place of lack and not feeling as if we have enough. It is an emotional issue as much as a material one. Sometimes we feel as if by controlling and increasing the material volume of lives, we feel more abundant. Not only is this not true, it has the opposite effect. The more we spend our money in non-constructive ways, the worse we feel and the more we spend to feel better. Vicious cycle much? Money is a deeply personal subject and financial circumstances vary greatly from individual to individual and family to family. There are no one-size fits all rules regarding money but there are some general tips that work well for most people. For more useful reference: http://corlissonlinegroup.com/ http://corlissmag.livejournal.com/ https://foursquare.com/corlissgroupmag
Gerald Hussen

Corliss Group Online Financial Mag, Stocks Fall as Slide in Emerging Markets Sends Bond... - 1 views

Stocks Fall as Slide in Emerging Markets Sends Bonds Yen Higher Corliss Group Online Financial Mag
started by Gerald Hussen on 01 Feb 14 no follow-up yet
  • Gerald Hussen
     
    http://www.sfgate.com/business/bloomberg/article/Stocks-Fall-as-Slide-in-Emerging-Markets-Sends-5172877.php

    Jan. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Global stocks tumbled the most since June, as the biggest drop in emerging markets in two months prompted investors to seek havens in Treasuries, German bunds and yen. Natural gas reached a three-year high.

    The MSCI All-Country World Index fell 1.8 percent at 3:40 p.m. in New York. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index slid 1.8 percent and the Dow Jones Industrial Average headed toward its biggest weekly drop since 2012. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index tumbled 1.4 percent, extending its 2014 decline to 5.2 percent. The yen rose as emerging-market currencies had the worst selloff in five years. Ten-year Treasury yields slipped to an eight-week low. Natural gas surged above $5 for the first time since 2010 on forecasts for cold weather in the U.S.

    Stocks retreated this week as signs of weakness in China's economy added to concern over the impact of cuts to the U.S. Federal Reserve's stimulus program. China's banking regulator ordered its regional offices to increase scrutiny of credit risks in the coal-mining industry, said two people with knowledge of the matter, signaling government concern about possible defaults.

    "The current environment is potentially very toxic for emerging markets," Eamon Aghdasi, a strategist at Societe Generale SA in New York, said in a phone interview yesterday. "You have two very troubling things: uncertainty about the Fed policy, combined with concerns about growth, particularly in China. It's difficult to justify that it's time to go out and buy emerging markets at the moment."

    Record Lows

    More than $940 billion has been erased from the value of emerging-market equities since the Fed signaled in May that it could start scaling back bond purchases that boosted demand for higher-yielding assets. A Bloomberg gauge tracking 20 emerging- market currencies fell to the lowest level since April 2009 today, tumbling more than 9 percent over the past 12 months, bigger than any annual decline since it slid 15 percent in 2008.

    The Turkish lira weakened 1.9 percent to 2.3360 per dollar, extending declines for the month to about 8.7 percent. The South African rand sank 1 percent to the weakest level since October 2008. Argentina's peso depreciated 12 percent yesterday to an unprecedented low as policy makers devalued the currency by reducing support in the foreign-exchange market. It lost another 1.5 percent today.

    Easing Controls

    Argentina will ease currency controls after the peso's slide brought the rate to a level Cabinet Chief Jorge Capitanich said was acceptable. Argentines will be able to buy dollars for savings in line with their income more than two years after first installing restrictions on foreign-currency purchases, he said today in Buenos Aires.

    "It looks as though we may be about to enter the critical phase," said John-Paul Smith, global emerging-market equity strategist at Deutsche Bank AG in London. "All of the structural vulnerabilities which have been apparent on a micro level for the past three years are now beginning to undermine investor confidence, so that what has so far mainly been a relative underperformance story is now starting to impact absolute performance of equities in general and EM equities in particular."

    The European Central Bank, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan and the Swiss National Bank jointly decided to reduce the offering of dollar loans to banks, the ECB said today. Fed policy makers meet Jan. 28-29 and will probably cut another $10 billion from their monthly bond-buying program, according to the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg this month.

    Fed Stimulus

    The U.S. central bank decided at its December meeting to start cutting its monthly bond purchases by $10 billion to $75 billion. Three rounds of Fed monetary stimulus helped the S&P 500 rise more than 170 percent from a 12-year low in 2009.

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Gerald Hussen

Corliss Group Online Financial Mag, The Morning Ledger: Retailers Get Grim Warning on C... - 1 views

The Morning Ledger: Retailers Get Grim Warning on Cyberattacks Corliss Group Online Financial Mag
started by Gerald Hussen on 30 Jan 14 no follow-up yet
Gerald Hussen

Corliss Group Online Financial Mag, Hong Kong Jewelry Sales Hit the Rocks - 1 views

Hong Kong Jewelry Sales Hit the Rocks Corliss Group Online Financial Mag
started by Gerald Hussen on 29 Jan 14 no follow-up yet
  • Gerald Hussen
     
    http://blogs.wsj.com/chinarealtime/2014/01/23/hong-kong-jewelry-sales-hit-the-rocks/

    Nearly one year ago, year-over-year growth in jewelry sales was as high as 19%, said Sarah Quinlan, senior vice president for MasterCard Advisors, a division of the U.S.-based credit-card company. But according to a MasterCard report analyzing Hong Kong spending, that growth rate dipped below 6.4%, the average overall retail growth rate in the city last month.

    For years, Hong Kong has seen waves of mainland Chinese tourists rushing across the border to buy gilt and gold watches, jewelry and more-a phenomenon that's helped one local jewelry chain sprout some 80 stores in the city of 7 million, a number that outstrips even the city's inventory of KFC branches. At this point, fully 23 cents out of every dollar in retail sales in Hong Kong is spent on jewelry, MasterCard says. (By contrast, that figure in the U.S. is less than 1 cent.)

    Among growth in retail sectors from groceries to clothing, that of jewelry sales ranked dead last in December, Ms. Quinlan said. Growth "basically fell off a cliff" starting in July and has continued to taper since, she said, following a crackdown on corruption on the mainland.

    "Since [jewelry] represents such a significant percentage of total retail sales here, that's quite concerning for the overall Hong Kong economy," she said. MasterCard's report was based on data that included transactions made via the company's payments network in Hong Kong, as well as estimates of other payment forms including cash and check.

    Though 35 million Chinese tourists flocked to Hong Kong in 2012, they are spending less on big-ticket items, though they still account for as much as a third of overall local retail spending, according to Hang Sang Bank estimates. Earlier this month, Hong Kong's leader announced plans to try to further attract high-spending tourists seeking to spend their cash, possibly through the construction, officials said, of more luxury hotels.

    Apart from spending by high-flying Chinese consumers, typical Hong Kong residents also literally tightened their belts last month, said Ms. Quinlan. After jewelry, the second-weakest category of growth they saw, she said, was in grocery spending, while the strongest was for health and beauty spending.

    Still, the report's authors said they believe spending in Hong Kong is slated to pick up in the first quarter, thanks in part to growth in U.S. consumer spending, the effects of which they expect to ripple out to Asia. In particular, Ms. Quinlan said, the fact that spending on airline tickets was the highest-growth category in the U.S. in December reflects mounting consumer confidence. She also expects a further boost in U.S. consumer spending a couple months from now on food, lodging and more when people start taking the trips they've booked.

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Gerald Hussen

Corliss Group Online Financial Mag - Hong Kong's top ranking for economic freedom feels... - 1 views

Corliss Group Online Financial Mag Hong Kong's top ranking for economic freedom feels a good laugh
started by Gerald Hussen on 28 Jan 14 no follow-up yet
  • Gerald Hussen
     
    Did the Heritage Foundation ever send its experts into the streets of Hong Kong to meet ordinary people and ask them how free the city's economy has become in recent years?
    The right-wing US think tank ranked Hong Kong the world's freest economy for the 20th consecutive year last week, but many expatriates and locals in the city are taking the survey result as a bit of a joke.

    There are a tonne of examples we could use to tell the Heritage Foundation the real story of Hong Kong's so-called "free economy".

    The government has tightened its control on many sectors, from the old-fashioned property business to broadcasting services in the digital era.

    Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying's stance on Hong Kong Television Network's free-to-air licence saga is a sign of how things have changed in a society that had been proud of its economic freedom for years.

    In Hong Kong, Leung effectively said, the Executive Council led by the chief executive has the ultimate say on a lot of things, and we don't need to explain everything in detail to you. In other words, listen to us rather than the public or market demand.

    In the property business, the interests of developers, buyers and sellers have been significantly affected by the government's new tax policies.

    At a recent business forum, Shan Weijian, a professor-turned-private-equity-tycoon, asked the government: "Regarding the new 'hot policy' on properties, does New York or London have such policies? New York and London are both financial centres [that need] to attract talent, too. Their attitude is very open."

    The "hot policy" mentioned by Shan, an influential businessman on Wall Street and the mainland, refers to the additional tax non-permanent residents of Hong Kong must pay when buying a property in the city. The measure is widely considered as a move by Leung to boost his popularity.

    A few days after the Heritage Foundation released its global ranking, the Economist group's advisory service unit for senior corporate executives issued a warning on the outlook for Hong Kong's business. It said the city was "at serious risk of losing its position as a pivotal business centre in Asia".

    Meanwhile, the mainland was becoming a standalone business region for many multinationals, the Economist survey found.

    Yes, Hong Kong is still the regional headquarters of many Fortune 500 firms, but the growth trend looks weak.

    Pressure and competition for Hong Kong is coming not just from the north. The Heritage Foundation noted the growing challenge from Singapore.

    While Hong Kong's overall score in the ranking, 90.1, rose 0.8 point year on year, Singapore's added 1.4 points to 89.4. It seems only a matter of time before Singapore is the new king of the free market.

    If the late economist Milton Friedman, who once praised Hong Kong as a model of a free economy, could revisit the city, would he be disappointed?
    Or perhaps, as I hear more and more from friends around me, is Hong Kong just destined to see its fortunes wane?

    Article source: http://www.scmp.com/business/article/1409190/hong-kongs-top-ranking-economic-freedom-feels-good-laugh

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Gerald Hussen

Corliss Group Online Financial Mag, Thai Tourism Hurt as Protests Mean Lunar New Year T... - 1 views

Thai Tourism Hurt as Protests Mean Lunar New Year Trips Canceled Corliss Group Online Financial Mag
started by Gerald Hussen on 27 Jan 14 no follow-up yet
  • Gerald Hussen
     
    Thai anti-government protests that have shut down parts of Bangkok may cost the nation's tourism industry as Chinese visitors cancel trips during the lunar new year holiday that starts this week.

    Arrivals will fall by half to 1 million this month, Minister of Tourism and Sports Somsak Phurisisak said Jan. 23, with some hotels in the capital and nearby Pattaya and Hua Hin 30 percent full. The revenue loss could amount to 22.5 billion baht ($685 million), the Tourism Council of Thailand said, with China last week warning its citizens to avoid protest sites and rethink non-essential travel.

    "I first planned for a week-long trip to Bangkok to visit my friend there for Christmas, but I had to postpone because of the unrest," said Jia Yanfen, 38, a Beijing-based Chinese language teacher who has never been to Thailand. "I waited and waited hoping to go for Chinese New Year," Jia said. "I had to cancel the trip now. Of course I was a bit disappointed, but safety comes first."

    Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra imposed a state of emergency in Bangkok Jan. 22 as attacks on protesters escalated and demonstrators blockaded Bangkok's busiest intersections. Concerns about a slump in tourism, which contributes about 10 percent to gross domestic product, sent the Stock Exchange of Thailand's Tourism and Leisure Index down 3 percent last week, the worst performer among the bourse's 27 industry groups, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

    Flights Canceled

    Bangkok attracted almost 4.2 million visitors from China, Hong Kong and Taiwan in 2013, a 46 percent jump from the year before, according to government data, and Somsak said about 300,000 Chinese tourists traditionally visit the country during the lunar new year holiday, which begins Jan. 31. "We expect to see more flight reductions by airlines, especially from China," he told reporters in Bangkok.

    Singapore Airlines Ltd. will cancel 43 flights between Singapore and Bangkok between Jan. 14 and Feb. 27, and Thai Airways International Pcl (THAI) plans to scrap 25 flights between Hong Kong and the capital, the carriers said last week.

    Tourist arrivals will decline by 7.3 percent to 6.5 million in the first quarter compared with a year earlier, the Tourism Council said in a statement Jan. 23. Bangkok arrivals have fallen 5 percent in January from a year earlier, it said. Since the protests began in October more than 550 people have been wounded and nine killed.

    Advance Bookings

    Advance bookings have been crimped by travel warnings from countries such as China, Malaysia, Hong Kong, Australia, the Philippines and the U.S., whose authorities have warned citizens to avoid Bangkok's protests hotspots. The Philippines said Jan. 23 its citizens in the capital should prepare to be evacuated if violence intensifies.

    Tour guides from China are in close contact with counterparts in Thailand, Ying Chang Tian, a spokesman for Shanghai-based travel agency Ctrip.com International Ltd., said by phone. "Our local agency in Bangkok will report to our company if the situation affects our schedule."

    The tourism industry rebounded from protests that shut the main airport for almost two weeks in 2008 and turned inner Bangkok into a war zone in 2010, as well as from disasters such as the Indian Ocean tsunami that devastated beach resorts in 2004 and floods in 2011.


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Gerald Hussen

3 Reasons Why The Economy Has Done Better Under Democratic Presidents - 0 views

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    Democratic presidents tend to preside over better economies than Republican ones, but that may be down to pure luck, according to a recent paper from Alan Blinder and Mark Watson at Princeton. Since the end of World War II, the U.S. economy has grown at an average real rate of 4.35% under Democratic presidents and only 2.54% under Republicans. So what gives? "Democrats would no doubt like to attribute the large D-R growth gap to better macroeconomic policies, but the data do not support such a claim," they write. "It seems we must look instead to several variables that are mostly 'good luck.'" Three factors can explain 46-62% of the growth gap, according to the paper. Here are the reasons (via James Hamilton): Oil shocks. With the exception of Jimmy Carter, oil price shocks tend to dog Republican administrations more. The 1956-57 Suez Crisis, early-70s OPEC embargo, 1980 Iran-Iraq War, and the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait in 1990 all happened during Republican administrations. Productivity. It's hard to say that a U.S. president is responsible here, but Democrats tend to see bigger gains in productivity. Bill Clinton, for example, enjoyed a big boost in U.S. productivity during the 1990s. Consumer confidence. Consumers tend to have a rosier outlook on the U.S. economy in the first year a Democrat is in the White House. "Yet the superior growth record under Democrats is not forecastable by standard techniques, which means it cannot be attributed to superior initial conditions," they write. Chalk this one up to luck again, but it does come "tantalizingly close to a self-fulfilling prophecy in which consumers correctly expect the economy to do better under Democrats, then make that happen by purchasing more consumer durables."
Gerald Hussen

Britain's economy to become largest in Europe - and will grow even more if we leave EU - 0 views

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    The think tank Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) predicts the UK economy will outstrip France and Germany within two decades even if Britain stays in the EU. But while leaving the organisation would have initial negative consequences, the CEBR's chief executive Douglas McWilliams suspects "that over a 15-year period, it would probably be positive." Britain is set to vote on a referendum on EU membership in 2017. The report predicts the UK's GDP will first move to fifth place ahead of France by 2018 before leapfrogging Germany around 2030. However, despite being forecast to be the second most successful of the Western economies after the US, it will fall behind the accelerating economies of India and Brazil. "Germany is forecast to lose its position as the largest Western European economy to the UK around 2030 because of the UK's faster population growth and lesser dependence on the other European economies," the report said. But added: "If the euro were to break up, Germany's outlook would be much better. "A Deutsche Mark-based Germany certainly would not be overtaken by the UK for many years if ever." It added that a factor driving the UK's move ahead of Germany is the assumption of a falling value for the euro, Germany's falling population and the UK's rising population. The gap between the two countries will fall from almost £610billion in 2013 to just £183billion in five years. The UK's GDP will grow from more than £1.59trillion in 2013 to £2.6trillion in 2028, compared to China which is predicted to be in top position with a GDP of more than £20.5trillion, ahead of the US with an estimated £19.7trillion Japan will fall from its steady position in the global league of third to fourth by 2028, overtaken by India and followed by Brazil, Germany and the UK. The positive report on the economy comes as a poll reveals more people believe they would be helped rather than harmed by a rise in interest rates. A survey reveals that a pre-
Gerald Hussen

Amazon's holiday success and UPS' holiday fail highlight the internet economy's problems - 0 views

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    The holidays were great for Amazon and lousy for UPS. The two are linked and are a good illustration of two problems we'll face more often as the web meets the real world. Shipping giant UPS failed millions of customers this holiday season, missing the delivery of "a small percentage of its packages" on the Christmas Eve, according to a statement it released on Tuesday. Meanwhile on the day after the Christmas Day, e-tailing giant Amazon is crowing about signing up more than one million Amazon Prime members last week and that it registered record number of orders. Later Amazon said it would offer shipping refunds on packages affected by the UPS delays. Both events are linked, and here is why.
Gerald Hussen

Spotify user numbers grow globally as company's UK revenue falls - 0 views

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    Spotify UK drop into the red last year, since subscription revenue fell and the music streaming service invested more in growth here. When compared to 2011's profit of £21 million, accounts reveal Spotify's British arm made a loss of £10.1 million in 2012. Down from £96.5 million a year earlier in 2012 it fell to £92.6 million, the online music streaming platform saw this revenue fall. The decrease in revenue was partially down to its decline in subscription, which fell from £72.4 million to £64.7 million because of the alteration in the way subscriptions were booked. A minimal increase was seen by UK advertising on the platform, rising from £8.1 million to £9.1 million to the year ending December 31. Sources say that subscription numbers have been growing strongly in 2013 thanks in part to partnerships with the likes of Vodafone. Spotify UK declined to comment on its accounts but earlier in the year parent company Spotify Group said: "In 2012 the business focused on driving user growth, international expansion and product development, resulting in soaring user numbers and increased market penetration. "Our key priority throughout 2013 and beyond remains bringing our unrivalled music experience to even more people while continuing to build for long-term growth - both for our company and for the music industry as a whole." With its operations in the thirty two countries around the world, Spotify lets users stream 10 hours of music a month for free with advertising or pay a subscription fee for unlimited, advertising-free listening. Naming Sony, Universal and EMI, and to date has paid out $500 million in royalties to artists, the company has signed deals with major record labels with the said records. With 5 million paying subscribers Globally Spotify saw users leap from 11 million to 20 million in the year. UK numbers were not disclosed. From March this year figures demonstrate this has augmented to 24 million users and 6 million subscribe
Gerald Hussen

Risk warning - 0 views

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    Corliss Group Online Financial Mag does not legally have to publish this warning as we do not facilitate stock transactions; however we believe that as a stock-market based website, you should be aware that prices of shares can go down as well as up and making money is never a guaranteed thing. Be always aware that past performance of a stock does not guarantee the same performance in the future. Corliss Online Financial Mag does not take responsibility or accept any liability for any personal loss or materials shown on external websites.
Gerald Hussen

Announcing the New and Affordable, Easy Access, PayPal Business Loan Options that Come ... - 0 views

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    Reasonable, convenient PayPal commercial loans can now be availed of, thanks to alternative business lender, BusinessCashAdvanceGuru.Com. Small companies can be eligible to loans from $5,000 to $500,000 with interest rates as low as only 1.9 percent with no accompanying credit investigation. Small commercial lending has dropped significantly from the Great Recession. All over the country, small-sized businesses are now discovering working funds, business loans, and expansion capital as difficult to acquire. "Forty-five percent of the 515 business-people who joined the advocacy group's survey said availability of loans and credit at affordable rates is a hurdle for their companies. Access to funds was most hard in the Northeast, where 53 percent of the owners said it was difficult to obtain. In the West, 49 percent considered it a major obstacle, followed by 44 percent in the South and 37 percent in the Midwest," reported the Seattle Post Intelligencer.
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