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The World Bank's most recent Global Economic Prospects (GEP) report, released this week, says a global economic recovery is underway, underpinned by strengthening output and demand in high-income countries. Global GDP growth in 2014 will be 2.8 percent and it is expected to rise to about 4.2 percent by 2016, according to the report, which the World Bank publishes twice a year. Average GDP growth in developing countries has reached 4.8 percent in 2014, faster than in high-income countries but slower than in the boom period before the global financial and economic crisis of 2008. Demand side stimulus or supply side reforms? The global economic slowdown that struck in 2008 was caused by a financial crisis that resulted in large part from the bursting of an enormous, fraud-ridden mortgage lending bubble in the US. The crisis led to varying responses in different countries. The GEP report's authors said that in general, developing countries privileged demand stimulus policies over structural reforms during the past several years. For example, in 2008 to 2009, China implemented a four trillion-renminbi ($586 billion) stimulus program as a direct response to the slowdown in global trade caused by the global financial crisis. Critics pointed to over-investment in China as a risk to continued fast growth. The country is now struggling to contain a real estate bubble of its own. The World Bank wants China and other emerging countries to refocus on structural reforms. "A gradual tightening of fiscal policy and structural reforms are desirable to restore fiscal space depleted by the 2008 financial crisis," the bank's chief economist, Kaushik Basu, has said. "In brief, now is the time to prepare for the next crisis."

By Maria Gallucci - Global economic growth is expected to dip this year, following the fiercely cold winter that plagued the United States and turbulence in Ukraine and the world's financial markets. The World Bank on Tuesday said it reduced its global growth forecast to 2.8 percent this year, down from a January projection of 3.2 percent, Bloomberg News reported. The U.S. forecast was cut to 2.1 percent from 2.8 percent, and outlooks for Brazil, Russia, India and China also fell -- a sign that emerging economies aren't moving fast enough or investing sufficiently in domestic structural reforms, which are needed to accelerate economic expansion, according to the Washington-based institution. It recommended smaller budget deficits, higher interest rates and productivity-boosting measures to stave off future financial unrest, Bloomberg said. The growth setbacks, however, might be short-lived. The 2015 projection for global economic growth held steady at 3.4 percent, Bloomberg noted, and growth is expected to regain speed this year despite earlier weaknesses, the World Bank said in its Global Economic Prospects report. "The financial health of economies has improved. ... But we are not totally out of the woods yet," Kaushik Basu, the lender's chief economist, said. "A gradual tightening of fiscal policy and structural reforms are desirable to restore fiscal space depleted by the 2008 financial crisis. In brief, now is the time to prepare for the next crisis."

Outside the portfolios' 'Themes' and 'Commercial property' sectors, regular readers will know that the strategy guiding both portfolios since their inception five years ago has been to 'Go high, go deep and go east'. The emphasis has been on higher-yielding blue-chips and bonds, smaller companies and the Far East (including Japan from the end of 2012). This has served both portfolios well. However, the time has come to modestly refine the strategy for the Growth portfolio given market conditions and its freedom from an income constraint.

Spotify UK drop into the red last year, since subscription revenue fell and the music streaming service invested more in growth here. When compared to 2011's profit of £21 million, accounts reveal Spotify's British arm made a loss of £10.1 million in 2012. Down from £96.5 million a year earlier in 2012 it fell to £92.6 million, the online music streaming platform saw this revenue fall. The decrease in revenue was partially down to its decline in subscription, which fell from £72.4 million to £64.7 million because of the alteration in the way subscriptions were booked. A minimal increase was seen by UK advertising on the platform, rising from £8.1 million to £9.1 million to the year ending December 31. Sources say that subscription numbers have been growing strongly in 2013 thanks in part to partnerships with the likes of Vodafone. Spotify UK declined to comment on its accounts but earlier in the year parent company Spotify Group said: "In 2012 the business focused on driving user growth, international expansion and product development, resulting in soaring user numbers and increased market penetration. "Our key priority throughout 2013 and beyond remains bringing our unrivalled music experience to even more people while continuing to build for long-term growth - both for our company and for the music industry as a whole." With its operations in the thirty two countries around the world, Spotify lets users stream 10 hours of music a month for free with advertising or pay a subscription fee for unlimited, advertising-free listening. Naming Sony, Universal and EMI, and to date has paid out $500 million in royalties to artists, the company has signed deals with major record labels with the said records. With 5 million paying subscribers Globally Spotify saw users leap from 11 million to 20 million in the year. UK numbers were not disclosed. From March this year figures demonstrate this has augmented to 24 million users and 6 million subscribe

Democratic presidents tend to preside over better economies than Republican ones, but that may be down to pure luck, according to a recent paper from Alan Blinder and Mark Watson at Princeton. Since the end of World War II, the U.S. economy has grown at an average real rate of 4.35% under Democratic presidents and only 2.54% under Republicans. So what gives? "Democrats would no doubt like to attribute the large D-R growth gap to better macroeconomic policies, but the data do not support such a claim," they write. "It seems we must look instead to several variables that are mostly 'good luck.'" Three factors can explain 46-62% of the growth gap, according to the paper. Here are the reasons (via James Hamilton): Oil shocks. With the exception of Jimmy Carter, oil price shocks tend to dog Republican administrations more. The 1956-57 Suez Crisis, early-70s OPEC embargo, 1980 Iran-Iraq War, and the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait in 1990 all happened during Republican administrations. Productivity. It's hard to say that a U.S. president is responsible here, but Democrats tend to see bigger gains in productivity. Bill Clinton, for example, enjoyed a big boost in U.S. productivity during the 1990s. Consumer confidence. Consumers tend to have a rosier outlook on the U.S. economy in the first year a Democrat is in the White House. "Yet the superior growth record under Democrats is not forecastable by standard techniques, which means it cannot be attributed to superior initial conditions," they write. Chalk this one up to luck again, but it does come "tantalizingly close to a self-fulfilling prophecy in which consumers correctly expect the economy to do better under Democrats, then make that happen by purchasing more consumer durables."

The think tank Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) predicts the UK economy will outstrip France and Germany within two decades even if Britain stays in the EU. But while leaving the organisation would have initial negative consequences, the CEBR's chief executive Douglas McWilliams suspects "that over a 15-year period, it would probably be positive." Britain is set to vote on a referendum on EU membership in 2017. The report predicts the UK's GDP will first move to fifth place ahead of France by 2018 before leapfrogging Germany around 2030. However, despite being forecast to be the second most successful of the Western economies after the US, it will fall behind the accelerating economies of India and Brazil. "Germany is forecast to lose its position as the largest Western European economy to the UK around 2030 because of the UK's faster population growth and lesser dependence on the other European economies," the report said. But added: "If the euro were to break up, Germany's outlook would be much better. "A Deutsche Mark-based Germany certainly would not be overtaken by the UK for many years if ever." It added that a factor driving the UK's move ahead of Germany is the assumption of a falling value for the euro, Germany's falling population and the UK's rising population. The gap between the two countries will fall from almost £610billion in 2013 to just £183billion in five years. The UK's GDP will grow from more than £1.59trillion in 2013 to £2.6trillion in 2028, compared to China which is predicted to be in top position with a GDP of more than £20.5trillion, ahead of the US with an estimated £19.7trillion Japan will fall from its steady position in the global league of third to fourth by 2028, overtaken by India and followed by Brazil, Germany and the UK. The positive report on the economy comes as a poll reveals more people believe they would be helped rather than harmed by a rise in interest rates. A survey reveals that a pre-

MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russia's government acknowledged for the first time on Monday that the economy was in crisis, undermining earlier attempts by officials to suggest albeit weakening growth it could weather sanctions over Ukraine. Moscow markets wait to see the full scale of western measures over the seizure of Ukraine's Crimea and support of its referendum to join Russia, after losing billions of dollars in recent weeks in state and corporate money. More from Corliss: http://corlissonlinegroup.com/ http://corlissonlinegroup.com/blog/ https://www.facebook.com/corlissonlinefinancialmag https://twitter.com/CorlissGroupMag

Economist: U.S. labor market recovery is a fraud http://www.bizjournals.com/jacksonville/news/2013/10/02/economist-us-labor-market-recovery.html University of Central Florida economist Sean Snaith has this to say about the current labor market recovery: It's a fraud. That's because there's more to assessing economic recovery than just monthly payroll job gains and a declining unemployment rate, he said. "You need to look at the number of jobs being created in the context of the potential number of workers in the U.S. economy," Snaith said. "The gap between payroll employment and the Congressional Budget Office estimates of the potential number of workers in the U.S. economy is pretty darn scary right now." If payroll job growth were to persist at the average level of the past three jobs reports and increase at just 148,000 jobs per month, it would take until December 2021 for employment to reach its CBO estimated potential, he added. In his 2013 third-quarter U.S. forecast, Snaith explains that by just focusing on the unemployment rate, many analysts erroneously are predicting a fast recovery that's simply not there yet. That's why it's not surprising that consumers are holding back on spending, which in the past has brought the economy out of the doldrums, he said. Snaith was only one of four national economists to predict that the federal Reserve Bank would continue to funnel billions of dollars into the market on a daily basis as a way to help stimulate the economy and not begin tapering that process until 2014. "Will the Federal Reserve's exit be more like Ginger Rogers gliding across the dance floor or Miley Cyrus awkwardly twerking remains to be seen," Snaith said. "But given the phony labor-market recovery it could be some time before the Fed hits the dance floor." More Related Article: http://www.wattpad.com/25728832-the-corliss-group-stocks-surge-past-economic http://www.yellowbook.com/profile/corliss-group-the_1855

October 30, Wednesday, China's money market rates pointed on to a four-month high, a day following the country's central bank instill funds into the market to relieve worries that it was preparing to considerably constrict credit situation. The seven-day report rate, observed as a key measure of confidence to lend in the interbank markets, rose to around 5.59 percent - up about 64 basis points from the prior day. Analysts said that the jump in rates was seasonal in nature and at this stage were not too concerned about a repeat of events in June when a surge in money market rates fueled fears of a credit crunch in the world's number two economy. They further mentioned that liquidity infused into the market this week had not been huge enough to shove overnight lending rates considerably lower. On Tuesday via an open market operation, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) infused 13 billion yuan ($2.13 billion) into money markets. "Liquidity remains tight and the repo operation yesterday was small," said Nizam Idris, managing director, head of strategy, fixed income and currencies atMacquarie Bank. "China is still in the process of fine-tuning rates." Chris Weston, chief market strategist at trading firm IG, added: "Month end is coming up and of course tax implications are being blamed for higher rates." No fear With the benchmark Shanghai Composite stock index up 0.75 percent in afternoon Asia trade, Chinese markets became visible to take the spike in money market rates in stride. Analysts put this down to assumptions that the PBOC would approach into the market with better injections of cash to alleviate any doubts that it was geting ready to constrict monetary conditions in a big way. On Tuesday and Thursday, the PBOC usually carry out reverse-repurchase operations, an opportunity for it to inject liquidity into Chinese money markets. "They [PBOC policymakers] will probably provide liquidity on Thursday - at this point they don't wa