Will China really dominate? | World Finance - 0 views
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In the case of Russia, these numbers assume that its current demographic decline is counterbalanced and gradually reversed by the effects of an Arctic windfall, and that it can maintain effective control of its Far East region.
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Ignoring the effects of environmental change, China will be by far the largest economy, with a GDP that is 40 percent of the total for the top twenty economies. The US will be second with a GDP well under half that of China. India will be third and Brazil will be fourth.
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Taking environmental change into account, China and the US will be neck-and-neck with 24 percent each of the GDP for the top twenty, Russia will be third, Brazil fourth and India fifth. Most of China’s catch-up will happen early, prior to 2030; before climate change really bites.