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Russia’s economy is at a turning point. Following a decade of spectacular growth fueled by high energy prices, the country could either use its newfound riches to finance much-needed modernization and become a driver of innovation and growth, or muddle through by continuing to rely on its large yet maturing hydrocarbon base.

Ranking the importance of different drivers for Russia’s economic development in terms of impact and uncertainty over the way in which they may evolve over time, the group highlighted oil and gas prices as well as economic diversification and competition as critical uncertainties (see exhibit).