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Tero Toivanen

Autism Blog - » Blog Archive » Is there an autism epidemic - the latest science - 0 views

  • A new paper from Eric Fombonne is in electronic print at the journal Pediatric Research.
  • The title is ‘Epidemiology of pervasive developmental disorders’
  • Combining all these categories together Fombonne presents a prevalence of 60-70/10,000.
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  • Pervasive Developmental Disorders, including Autistic Disorder, Asperger Disorder, Pervasive Developmental Disorder Not Otherwise Specified, and Childhood Disintegrative Disorder.
  • For autistic disorder, Fombonne says: The correlation between prevalence and year of publication was statistically significant and studies with prevalenceover 7/10,000 were all published since 1987. These findings point towards an increase in prevalence estimates in the last 15-20 years.
  • recent autism surveys have consistently identified smaller numbers of children with AS than those with autism within the same survey.
  • How much lower is difficult to establish from existing data, but a ratio of 3 or 4 to 1 would appear an acceptable,
  • We therefore used for subsequent calculations an estimate of 6/10,000 for AS, recognizing the strong limitations of available data on AS.
  • Eight studies provided data on childhood disintegrative disorder (CDD). Prevalence estimates ranged from 0 to 9.2/100,000.
  • The upper-bound limit of the associated confidence interval (4.0/100,000) indicates that CDD is a very rare condition, with about 1 case to occur for every 103 cases of autistic disorder.
  • Current evidence does not strongly support the hypothesis of a secular increase in the incidence of autism but power todetect time trends is seriously limited in existing datasets.
  • Whilst it is clear that prevalence estimates have gone up over time, this increase most likely represents changes in the concepts, definitions, service availability and awareness of autistic-spectrum disorders in both the lay and professional public.
  • The possibility that a true change in the underlying incidence has contributed to higher prevalence figures remains, however, to be adequately tested.
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