Geopolitics Weekly

This is a letter to the IAEA from Iran's representative in Vienna, Ali Asghar Soltanieh, obtained by The Guardian, that casts some light on Tehran's game plan. Sent ten days after the production of 20% enriched uranium began for the first time at the pilot centrifuge plant in Natanz, it demands the right to either buy 20% uranium fuel rods, or to carry out a simultaneous exchange, swapping rods for Iranian LEU.

a simultaneous swap means Iran never has to reduce its uranium stockpile

The residual benefit for the international community of a simultaneous swap is that a large chunk of Iran's LEU would be turned into a form (fuel rod assemblies) that is harder to turn into a weapon

French President Nicolas Sarkozy backed the creation of a "viable" Palestinian state on Monday but was cautious about repeating his foreign minister's support for possible recognition of a state before its borders were set.

In a newspaper interview at the weekend, Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner said that to break a stalemate in Middle East peacemaking, some countries might recognise a Palestinian state before its borders were fixed. "One can imagine a Palestinian state being rapidly declared and immediately recognised by the international community, even before negotiating its borders. I would be tempted by that," he told the Journal du Dimanche.

Sarkozy said that Kouchner was thinking of possible ways to bring momentum to the peace process but that France's goal remained a functioning Palestinian state in clearly set borders. "In Bernard's comments, there was the thought that if we don't manage that, then when the time comes, in accord with our Palestinian friends, we might underline the idea of this state politically, to lift it up a notch in a way," he said. "But the objective is the idea of a Palestinian state in the frontiers of 1967, with an exchange of territory, just as we have said all along."

Turkey's president has said tensions over an alleged military coup plot will be resolved within the law, after meeting the head of the armed forces.President Abdullah Gul made the statement after a summit with Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and armed forces chief Gen Ilker Basbug. Tension between the government and the military has risen following a round of arrests over the alleged plot. Twenty military officers were charged this week in connection with the case. They were among more than 40 officers arrested on Monday.

Turkey's military has overthrown or forced the resignation of four governments since 1960 - most recently in 1997 - though Gen Basbug has insisted that coups are a thing of the past.

The latest men to be charged were arrested over the so-called "sledgehammer" plot, which reportedly dates back to 2003. Reports of the alleged plot first surfaced in the liberal Taraf newspaper, which said it had discovered documents detailing plans to bomb two Istanbul mosques and provoke Greece into shooting down a Turkish plane over the Aegean Sea. The army has said the scenarios were discussed but only as part of a planning exercise at a military seminar. The alleged plot is similar, and possibly linked, to the reported Ergenekon conspiracy, in which military figures and staunch secularists allegedly planned to foment unrest, leading to a coup.

Iran's president Mahmoud Amadinejad has emphasised his country's "deep" ties with Syria during a meeting with President Bashar al-Assad in Damascus.During his trip Mr Ahmadinejad called for America and Israel to be cleared from the Arab world. The trip comes just days after the appointment of an new US ambassador to Syria, which had been seen as an improvement in the countries' ties.

on Thursday President Assad said he would not "distance" Syria from Iran. "I am surprised by their call to keep a distance between the countries when they raise the issue of stability and peace in the Middle East, and all the other beautiful principles," he said. He also defended Iran's right to enrich uranium, which has brought the country into conflict with the US and Europe.

Libya's Muammar Gaddafi has called for a jihad, or holy war, against Switzerland, as an ongoing diplomatic row between the two nations heats up.He criticised a recent Swiss vote against the building of minarets and said Muslims must boycott the country. There have been tensions between the nations since 2008, when one of Mr Gaddafi's sons was arrested in Geneva, accused of assaulting two servants.

"Let us wage jihad against Switzerland, Zionism and foreign aggression," he said. "Any Muslim in any part of the world who works with Switzerland is an apostate, is against Muhammad, God and the Koran."

In a referendum last November, 57.5% of Swiss voters approved a constitutional ban on the building of minarets. An appeal against the ban has been submitted to the European Court of Human Rights.

Iranian state television has broadcast a statement by a captured Sunni rebel leader in which he alleges he had American support.

The US has denied having links with the group, Jundullah. In the tape, Mr Rigi alleged the US had promised to provide his group with military equipment and a base in Afghanistan, near the Iranian border. He says he was on his way to a meeting with a "high-ranking person" at the Manas US military base in Kyrgyzstan when he was captured.

Jundullah has launched several deadly attacks in recent years in the south-east of Iran in protest over the discrimination of Sunni minorities in Iran. The attacks include the killing of six senior commanders of Iran's elite Revolutionary Guard in October.

The European Court of Justice has ruled that Israeli goods made in Jewish settlements in the occupied West Bank cannot be considered Israeli.This means goods made by Israelis or Jews in the West Bank cannot benefit from a trade deal giving Israel preferential access to EU markets. EU import duties on Israeli goods from the settlements may now be imposed, making them less competitive.

The EU has agreements with both Israel and the Palestinians that end customs duties.

Iran and Syria put on a show of defiant unity today, scorning US efforts to break up their alliance and warning Israel not to risk attacking either of them.

"The Americans want to dominate the region but they feel Iran and Syria are preventing that," Ahmadinejad said during a press conference with Assad."We tell them that instead of interfering in the region's affairs to pack their things and leave. If the Zionist entity wants to repeats its past errors, its death will be inevitable."

Assad made clear that Syria would not distance itself from Iran, its ally since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. "We hope that others don't give us lessons about our region and our history," he said. "We are the ones who decide ... and we know our interests. We thank them for their advice. I find it strange how they talk about Middle East stability and at the same time talk about dividing two countries."

French President Nicolas Sarkozy admitted Thursday at a joint press conference in Kigali with his Rwandan counterpart, Paul Kagame, that France had made “mistakes” at the time of the 1994 Rwandan genocide, in which 800,000 people, mainly from Kagame's Tutsi minority, were killed.

"What happened here is unacceptable, [and] compels the international community, including France, to reflect on the mistakes that stopped it from preventing and halting this abominable crime," the French president told reporters.

Sarkozy also acknowledged “mistakes in Operation Turquoise, which stepped in when it was too little, too late,” referring to a June 1994 French military operation launched two months after the genocide began with the intent of halting the massacres. The French president, however, stopped short of voicing an apology. Suggesting neither country should “remain hostage of the past”, Sarkozy said he wanted to “move past this very tragic chapter” and stressed the importance of “building a new partnership”.

China says diplomacy should be given further time in the dispute over Iran's nuclear programme, as US officials press for new sanctions on Tehran.

China's latest statement came as a senior US diplomat, James Steinberg, arrived in Beijing on the highest level visit since a series of bilateral rows. On Monday, Moscow signalled it would consider new sanctions against Tehran. And Iran rejected a UN International Atomic Energy Agency claim it was not co-operating with its investigation.

Asked about Moscow's statement, China's Foreign Ministry spokesman Qin Gang said: "We call for a resolution of the Iranian nuclear issue through diplomatic means.

Nine people, including both Italians and Iranians, have been arrested or are being sought by Italian police on suspicion of trafficking arms to Iran.

Police said "some are believed to belong to the Iranian secret services".

Italy is Iran's biggest trading partner in the European Union. But it has been among the countries leading calls for tougher sanctions against Iran over its nuclear programme.

The mayor of Jerusalem has announced a plan to demolish an area of Arab East Jerusalem to make way for an upmarket district of hotels and gardens.But hours before Mayor Nir Barkat was due to announce his scheme - called the King's Garden - Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said work should be delayed. The Israelis say the Palestinian houses to be demolished have been built without permits and have become a slum.

Mr Barkat called the plan a "bold move" and said it would be beneficial for both Palestinians and Israelis. "The plan is a win-win plan for the future of the city, taking into consideration the public and private interests, taking an area that has been neglected and turning it into an area that we can all be proud of," he said.

Dubai's police chief plans to seek the arrest of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the head of Israel's spy agency over the killing of a Hamas leader in the emirate, Al Jazeera television reported.

Modern grand strategy consists of four critical elements: a unifying, long-term vision of a country's global values and interests; an estimation of where that country is and wants to go in the world; an assessment of the country's potential and capacity to achieve those objectives; and a comprehensive plan to reach the destination set forth.

Maximizing the advantages and capably advocating the shared interests, policies and values of one Europe in a competitive and heteropolar world will require that priority attention and adequate resources be directed towards: Nurturing policy capacity (development, analysis and implementation) in order to improve performance on issues such as Afghanistan Burnishing core professional skills (negotiation, languages, cross-cultural communication) through improved training and professional development Sharpening operational agility, flexibility and adaptability (continuous learning, empowerment, enabling tools), for instance, through better use of new media Establishing a representational footprint in the field that is keyed to receiving as well as sending state needs and circumstances Creating and connecting with wider networks, and; Mainstreaming public diplomacy and European brand management.

A US congressional panel has described the killing of Armenians by Turkish forces during World War I as genocide, despite White House objections.The resolution was narrowly approved by the House Foreign Affairs Committee.

Turkey, a key US ally, responded by recalling its ambassador in Washington for consultations. It has fiercely opposed the non-binding resolution.

In October last year, Turkey and Armenia signed a historic accord normalising relations between them after a century of hostility.

Brazil will not bow to pressure from the US to support further sanctions against Iran over its nuclear work, the country's foreign minister has said.Celso Amorim told US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton that Brazil wanted to see further negotiations on the issue before it would support sanctions.

"I think it's only after we pass sanctions in the Security Council that Iran will negotiate in good faith," Mrs Clinton said.

Even before talks with Mrs Clinton began, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva repeated his stance that isolating Iran's leaders is counter-productive. "It is not prudent to push Iran against a wall. The prudent thing is to establish negotiations," he said. "I want for Iran the same thing as I wish for Brazil: To use the development of nuclear energy for peaceful purposes. If Iran is in agreement with that, Iran will have Brazil's support."

China has said its military spending will increase by 7.5% in 2010, ending a long run of double-digit growth.It will spend 532.1bn yuan ($77.9bn:£51.7bn) over the year, the spokesman of the country's annual parliamentary session announced.

According to Chinese figures, this is the first time in more than 20 years that the military budget increase has dipped below 10%.

The spending spree began in the late 1980s, when China embarked on an ambitious programme to upgrade its armed forces. Since then it has bought and produced its own high-tech weapons, and reduced the number of personnel in an attempt to have fewer, but better trained, troops. Salaries and other benefits for officers and ordinary soldiers have also been improved.

According to a poll published on Thursday, 84% of Germans think that the EU should not help Greece out of its debt crisis.

Prime Minister Gordon Brown has said the 2003 war was "right", as he gives evidence to the UK's Iraq inquiry.

Setting out his thinking on the rationale for war for the first time in public, Mr Brown said terrorists and "rogue states" were the "two risks to the post-Cold War world" and had to be tackled.

If the international community could not act together over Iraq, Mr Brown said he feared the "new world order we were trying to create would be put at risk".

Turkey has reacted angrily to a US congressional panel's resolution describing as genocide the killings of Armenians in World War I.PM Recep Tayyip Erdogan said his country had been accused of a crime it did not commit, adding the resolution would harm Turkish-US relations. Ankara has recalled its ambassador to Washington for consultations and says it is considering other responses.

The BBC's Jane O'Brien in Washington says Turkey must be hoping that, as with a similar resolution two years ago, the issue will not come to the floor of the House for a full vote. In 2007, it passed the committee stage, but was shelved after pressure from the George W Bush administration.

Turkish President Abdullah Gul responded angrily to the committee's vote, saying it was "an injustice to history" to take such a decision with "political concerns in mind". "Turkey will not be responsible for the negative results that this event may lead to," he said.