Geopolitics Weekly

Angela Merkel, the German ­chancellor, and Nicolas Sarkozy, the French ­president, will throw down the gauntlet today by staging a joint press conference in ­London demanding the G20 summit usher in a new era of global regulation of banks, ­executive bonuses, hedge funds andoffshore tax havens.In what will be seen as a challenge to Obama, they will also insist nobody at the summit should discuss a fresh stimulus package, despite a report from the ­Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development that "world trade is now in freefall".

Brown was reported to be working hard to persuade the Chinese to contribute more to global institutions such as the IMF, in return for extra voting rights.

Barack Obama may be forced to delay signing up to a new international agreement on climate change in Copenhagen at the end of the year because of the scale of opposition in the US Congress, it emerged today.Senior figures in the Obama administration have been warning Labour counterparts that the president may need at least another six months to win domestic support for any proposal.Such a delay could derail the securing of a tough global agreement in time for countries and markets to adopt it before the Kyoto treaty runs out in 2012.

Byers, a former cabinet minister who has close contacts with senior Democrats in the Obama team, added: "The practical reality is that a delay into 2010 will still leave time for a new international structure to be put in place for 2012 to follow from Kyoto. Such a delay would be a price worth paying to bring the United States into the global effort to tackle climate change."

Obama has committed the US to reducing its emissions to 1990 levels by 2020, but scientists and European governments insist deeper cuts are needed. Obama has suggested that the US could compensate with swifter reductions in the years beyond 2020. His recent budget proposal calls for reducing US emissions roughly 80% by 2050 over 2005 levels.

it all rested on a bubble: in just two months last fall, aluminum prices plunged from $3,500 a ton to $1,350. Demand also went off a cliff, with more than 10 million tons—a full quarter of RusAl's 2008 production—lying unsold.

Deripaska was dangerously exposed. In March 2008, at the very top of the metals market, he had bought 25 percent of the metals giant Norilsk Nickel for $4.5 billion from his fellow plutocrat Mikhail Pro-khorov. By late October, foreign creditors were threatening to seize Deripaska's piece of the company. National pride forced Russia's finance minister to order a $4.5 billion credit line so Deripaska could refinance his piece of Norilsk.

Putin now has two options, says Dorenko: "He can nationalize everything Deripaska used to own—or he can throw Deripaska onto the people's pitchforks, like they did with barons here in the Middle Ages." That's bad news for Deripaska: cash is too tight these days for the government to bail him out. The Kremlin's sole priority is to avoid mass layoffs, possibly by letting foreign investors step in. Medvedev seems sincere in his desire to end the culture of oligarchy, says Kirill Kabanov, head of the National Anti-Corruption Committee, a Moscow-based NGO. But like it or not, the president's only choice may be to have another oligarch take over Deripaska's empire, despite the old system's flaws.

The Obama administration may take a tough line with Tehran in coming months even as it signals a willingness to move toward direct talks with Iranian officials, according to President Obama’s aides and outside experts who have consulted with the government about Iran. While Mr. Obama is expected to soften the Bush administration’s line against talking to Iran, the aides said, he may also seek to toughen sanctions.

Mr. Obama told the Arabic-language television station Al Arabiya last week that “if countries like Iran are willing to unclench their fist, they will find an extended hand from us.” He has also spoken recently of the need to treat Iran with “mutual respect.”

Dennis B. Ross, the longtime Middle East peace negotiator who is expected to be named to a senior post handling Iran, has long argued that the United States must persuade America’s European allies to increase economic pressure against Iran.

Reversing a decision made five weeks ago, Mohammad Khatami, Iran’s reformist former president, has decided to withdraw from the June presidential race to support a political ally, the country’s semiofficial news agency reported Tuesday.

The Fars news agency on Tuesday quoted a statement from Mr. Khatami that said, “I announce my withdrawal from candidacy.”

“He does not want to compete with Mir-Hussein Moussavi,” said Mr. Leylaz, referring to a former prime minister who announced last week that he would run in the presidential election on June 12. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is expected to seek re-election.

The influential former Iranian Prime Minister, Mir Hossein Mousavi, will contest the Iranian presidential election on 12 June. Mr Mousavi, who speaks Persian, English and Arabic, held office during the Iran-Iraq War of 1980-1988. His candidacy may split voters opposed to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the current president who is likely to stand again. His rivals include ex-President Mohammad Khatami and Mahdi Karroubi, both of whom are leading moderates.

Mr Mousavi was the prime minister under the presidency of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who is now the Islamic Republic's supreme leader. He is also a member of Iran's Expediency Council which is the country's top political arbitration body.

"Like you, I believe the correct path is reforms that return to (Islamic) principles but refine them," Mousavi said Tuesday in a message to Khatami

"Mousavi is seeking to win the support of both reformers and moderate conservatives," said Tehran-based political analyst Hedayat Aghaei.

He clashed with Khamenei — then Iran's president — over political authority and powers. The prime minister post was eliminated after Mousavi's term.

Israel's new right-leaning government, with its Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman and his warmongering outbursts, is more or less openly threatening a strike -- even without American consent. The Israelis, who have their own nuclear weapons, cite the Iranian president's irrationality as justification. They assume that Ahmadinejad is planning a nuclear attack on the Jewish state, without consideration for Israel's certain vehement retaliation.

In fact, Ahmadinejad has made no secret of his desire to see Israel wiped off the map of the Middle East. But he has also repeatedly stressed that he has no intention to attack "the Zionist entity" with armed force.

The conservative Arab nations, with their Sunni majorities, are now just as concerned about Iran's nuclear ambitions as the fact that the Iraqi government now enjoys the best of relations with its fellow Shiites in Tehran. Tehran's increasing power also strengthens its militant clients in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict: Hamas and Hezbollah.

ran is reportedly increasing its military aid to both Hezbollah and Hamas, according to Israeli intelligence sources. Meanwhile, Tehran is suspected of interfering in the reconciliation talks between the rival Palestinian factions.

A 20-page dossier compiled by the Israeli intelligence agencies, which has been seen by SPIEGEL, reports that Iran "has strengthened its operative help to Palestinian terror groups." The military aid is said to take the form of supplies of weapons, ammunitions and money, as well as the education and training of fighters.

The weapons are reported to include mortar shells and anti-tank missiles such as RAAD missiles, which are manufactured in Iran. They are said to be transported by land, sea and air. According to the report, Teheran has sent agents to establish posts along the smuggling routes to guarantee a smooth delivery.

Palestinian attack suspected after two Israeli policemen shot dead • Prisoner-swap deadline on eve of PM's departure• Gazan militants captured 22-year-old three years ago Rory McCarthy in Jerusalem guardian.co.uk, Monday 16 March 2009 01.42 GMT Article history Two Israeli policemen were shot dead in the West Bank yesterday in what Israeli police said they suspected was a Palestinian attack.No Palestinian group claimed responsibility for the shooting, which took place near the mainly agricultural settlement of Massuah, in an area of the West Bank close to the border with Jordan that is under Israeli security control. "The main suspicion points to a nationalistic motive," police spokesman Micky Rosenfeld said.The attack came as the Israeli prime minister, Ehud Olmert, sent two senior negotiators to Cairo yesterday in a final attempt to secure the release of an Israeli soldier captured by Gazan militants nearly three years ago.

the Israeli prime minister, Ehud Olmert, sent two senior negotiators to Cairo yesterday in a final attempt to secure the release of an Israeli soldier captured by Gazan militants nearly three years ago.

He sent Yuval Diskin, head of Israel's domestic security agency, Shin Bet, and Ofer Dekel, a long-time negotiator and former security official, with a reported offer that would have seen the release of some but not all the prisoners Hamas has demanded be freed in return for the Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit.

An enormous electronic espionage programme run from servers in China has been used to spy on computers in more than 100 countries, according to two reports published at the weekend.

The reports name the system GhostNet, and claim that it has been used to attack governments in south and south-east Asia as well as the offices of the Dalai Lama. In two years, the reports suggest, the operation infiltrated 1,295 computers in 103 countries.

While one of the reports remains mute on the identity of the perpetrators, the other has no such qualms, warning that the Chinese government ran a series of cyber attacks on Tibetan exile groups.

The UN has accused him of arming the alleged war criminal Charles Taylor in Liberia, as well as rebels in Sierra Leone and the Congo. He was arrested in a five-star hotel last March while allegedly discussing the sale of shoulder-launched missiles with US agents masquerading as Colombian rebels from FARC. The request to Thai authorities to arrest Bout says the US feared he was travelling on a British passport, number K163077. UK officials have declined to comment.

Bout's supposed client list reads like a Who's Who of the world's nastiest warlords but also includes Americans, Britons, Frenchmen and Russians. A former US deputy defence secretary, Paul Wolfowitz, has admitted that planes connected to his department did fly supplies into Iraq to aid the US occupation. Bout said it was possible that these deliveries were made by a company run by his brother, Sergei. He denied earlier reports that he shipped armoured cars into Iraq for Britain. He said the French government did hire him to fly its troops into the Congo in 1994 for Operation Turquoise, a relief mission after the Rwanda genocide.

Some analysts suspect that Bout's activities were linked to Russian intelligence. He denies this, but, asked if he worked for the Russian state, he said: "Sometimes, yeah. We did the flights." His battle against extradition has now become intensely political. Some observers have speculated that he is of high value to the US because of his alleged links to Igor Sechin, a deputy to Russian prime minister Vladimir Putin and one of the Kremlin's most powerful figures. He denied any such links or ever meeting Sechin, saying that the two men did not – as is claimed – serve as intelligence officers in Mozambique at the same time.

Russia has ended its decade-long "counter-terrorism operation" against separatist rebels in the southern republic of Chechnya, officials say.

Russian forces have fought two wars in the mainly Muslim republic since 1994.

Moscow says Chechnya has stabilised under its pro-Kremlin President, Ramzan Kadyrov, but human rights groups accuse his militias of widespread abuses.

The Russian authorities have confirmed a prominent opponent of the pro-Kremlin Chechen President, Ramzan Kadyrov, was shot dead in Dubai on Saturday. Diplomats said Sulim Yamadayev's body had been identified by his relatives. Mr Yamadayev fell out with Mr Kadyrov last year and was sacked as commander of an elite security forces battalion. Saturday's killing is the fourth of a prominent Chechen since September, when Mr Yamadayev's brother Ruslan was shot dead while driving in central Moscow. The Chechen leader has denied any involvement in the killings.

Russia is poised to declare a formal end to its 10-year war in Chechnya this week, says the BBC's Rupert Wingfield-Hayes in Moscow.

Mr Yamadayev became commander of the elite Vostok security forces battalion, a unit of former rebels who have helped quell separatist resistance. In 2005, he was named a Hero of Russia, the top national honour. But last year, he was dismissed after falling out with Mr Kadyrov and later fled to the United Arab Emirates.

As Washington tries to rebuild its strained relationships in Latin America, China is stepping in vigorously, offering countries across the region large amounts of money while they struggle with sharply slowing economies, a plunge in commodity prices and restricted access to credit.

In recent weeks, China has been negotiating deals to double a development fund in Venezuela to $12 billion, lend Ecuador at least $1 billion to build a hydroelectric plant, provide Argentina with access to more than $10 billion in Chinese currency and lend Brazil’s national oil company $10 billion. The deals largely focus on China locking in natural resources like oil for years to come.

China’s trade with Latin America has grown quickly this decade, making it the region’s second largest trading partner after the United States. But the size and scope of these loans point to a deeper engagement with Latin America at a time when the Obama administration is starting to address the erosion of Washington’s influence in the hemisphere.

Ever since the Congress party and the Gandhi family lost their grip on power in 1989 no single party has been able to run India. At the last election the Congress party took only 145 seats out of 543, with 26% of the vote. It took office by sharing power with partners.

Despite the arrival of coalition politics, turnout has remained stable at around 60% and poor minorities are more likely to vote than anyone else.

There are three main groupings: the United Progressive Alliance, dominated by the Congress party; the National Democratic Alliance, built around the Bharatiya Janata Dal; and the Third Front, centred on the Communists

One of the main stumbling blocks to talk with Iran has been the condition that Iran suspends its uranium enrichment. Now, the Obama administration may take that option off the table, at least for now.

The United States and its European allies, which have just invited Iran to a fresh round of nuclear talks, are coming to the realization that if Iran's nuclear program isn't quite at the point of no return, it will be soon. With 5,500 centrifuges, roughly enough for about two weapons worth of uranium a year, Iran isn't going to just shut down its enrichment facility as a goodwill gesture.

Iran maintains enriching uranium for nuclear energy is its right. Now the West seems to have come around to Iran's way of thinking. Last week during a speech on proliferation in Prague, Czech Republic, President Obama admitted as much when he said, "We will support Iran's right to peaceful nuclear energy with rigorous inspections."

The woman behind the mass protests which rocked the capital of Moldova last week has gone into hiding after the so-called "Twitter revolution" forced a recount of the general election.Natalia Morar, 25, a Moldovan who has already been banned from Russia for opposing the Kremlin, told the Guardian she feared arrest after organising a flash mob which ended with 20,000 people storming the parliament building.

The protests began after a conversation between Morar and six friends in a cafe in Chisinau, Moldova's tiny capital, on Monday 6 April. "We discussed what we should do about the previous day's parliamentary elections, which we were sure had been rigged," said Morar, speaking at a secret location.

The elections brought a larger-than-expected victory for the incumbent Communist party. "We decided to organise a flash mob for the same day using Twitter, as well as networking sites and SMS." With no recent history of mass protests in Moldova, "we expected at the most a couple of hundred friends, friends of friends, and colleagues", she said. "When we went to the square, there were 20,000 people waiting there. It was unbelievable."

Berlin's Brandenburg Gate, now a symbol of German unification, is being defaced by the presence of performers in Cold War uniforms, say Berlin politicians. The fake soldiers argue that they're making the area more attractive to tourists.

One of Berlin's most famous landmarks, the Brandenburg Gate, is being exploited by actors wearing Cold War-era uniforms who are lowering the tone by posing for tourists for money, some Berlin politicians are saying.

The soldiers dressed in American, East German or Soviet military uniforms, stand in front of the Brandenburg Gate holding flags. Some offer to stamp fake visas to provide tourists with a memento of their visit.

Annual growth in China's gross domestic product (GDP) slowed in the first quarter of 2009 to 6.1%, the National Bureau of Statistics has announced. This is the weakest growth since quarterly records began in 1992, but some analysts see signs of a recovery.

Growth was 6.8% in the last quarter of 2008, but the first quarter GDP figure dropped as exports fell 17% in March. China's government has said it is determined to achieve annual growth of 8%, and to expand its domestic demand.

There has been a recognition among Chinese state officials that too sharp an economic slowdown could lead to growing unemployment and may fuel social unrest.