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This means that, unlike in Britain or the US, the election will almost certainly not be dominated by a single personality. In an opinion poll this year for the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies, a Delhi thinktank, no leader enjoyed 25% approval as a possible prime minister.

The most popular leader is probably Sonia Gandhi, president of the Congress party. Gandhi, 63, who was born in Italy, has proved an astute politician, winning the last election against the odds but refusing to become prime minister, knowing her foreign birth would become too hot an issue. Instead she appointed Manmohan Singh as prime minister, leaving him to formulate policy while she handled the complex deal-making involved in coalition building. She also brought in her son Rahul, 38, who has begun to rebuild the party. Her daughter Priyanka, 37, is a star campaigner who draws huge crowds but so far has not contested an election.

The Congress party, say pundits, is the favourite because it is in power and can point to tangible achievements. For example, it pushed through big pay rises for 4.5 million government employees this year, engendering goodwill in urban areas.

The elite applauded Singh for winning a knife-edge parliamentary vote last year in which he secured a nuclear deal with the US that allowed India to keep its atomic weapons and still be sold nuclear reactors.

Most important perhaps in terms of votes, the Congress coalition also set up the first social security scheme in India, guaranteeing 100 days of work to poor households in the countryside. Although the cost is estimated at 400bn rupees (£5.4bn) this year, it should bring in votes among India's 600 million agricultural workforce.

In the opposite camp is the Bharatiya Janata party, led by Lal Krishna Advani, 81. The party's pollsters say it should win votes based on three main issues: terror attacks, the dynastic politics of the Congress party and the appeasement of minorities, especially Muslims.

These three issues were fused in the uproar over speeches by Varun Gandhi, 29, the great grandson of India's first prime minister, Jawaharlal Nehru. Although a Gandhi, he has become a mascot for the BJP. In March the budding poet told cheering crowds in a marginal constituency that he would cut the "head of Muslims" (sic) and if anyone raised a finger against Hindus he would "cut that hand".

Another powerful line of attack is that India's economic growth, which has been at 8% for five years, never reached the ordinary man.

However, the real power lies with the regional parties. Congress and the BJP square up in only seven out of 28 states. In almost every other state, the contest boils down to one of the national parties facing a local politician.

The most important of these is likely to be Kumari Mayawati. Her dedicated cadre of untouchable workers and her wooing of the upper castes created an upset in 2007 when her party swept to power in India's most populous state, Uttar Pradesh. Her policies are claimed to be about social justice but in reality are designed to capture jobs through quotas for her supporters. Mayawati's victory in the northern state, which has 80 seats and is considered a bellwether of public opinion, was a political earthquake.

Analysts say Mayawati's significance is the possible emergence of a third national party. If the regional parties coalesce around her, said Mahesh Rangarajan, a political commentator, she could be the "fulcrum of a new power arrangement". If Mayawati gets 40 or more seats, "she is possibly prime minister", he added.

The interventions from Obama capped an intensive lobbying effort for the bill by the White House and administration officials, Al Gore, and a broad coalition of environmental and business groups. The run-up had seen America's oil, gas and coal industry increase its lobbying budget by 50% in the first three months of the year to try to kill the bill. The spoiler campaign has run to hundreds of millions of dollars and involves industry front groups, lobbying firms, television, print and radio advertising, and donations to pivotal members of Congress.

The bill, now swollen to about 1,200 pages, would bind the US to reduce the carbon emissions from burning oil and coal by 17% from 2005 levels by 2020 and more than 80% by 2050.

t envisages measures to promote clean energy – from a development bank for new technology to new, greener building codes and targets for expanding the use of solar and wind power.

After the reduction of the original ­emissions-cut target to 17% and the granting of far more free pollution permits for the cap-and-trade scheme than originally envisioned, the most significant concessions include how farmers are rewarded for practices that reduce carbon ­emissions, and a four-year delay in new regulations that would have cut the profits of corn-based ethanol and encouraged the ­development of non-food biofuels instead.

"We are now formulating a plan for development of renewable energy. We can be sure we will exceed the 15% target. We will at least reach 18%. Personally I think we could reach the target of having renewables provide 20% of total energy consumption."

That matches the European goal, and would represent a direct challenge to Europe's claims to world leadership in the field, despite China's relative poverty. Some experts have cast doubt on whether Britain will be able to reach 20%. On another front, China has the ambitious plan of installing 100m energy-efficient lightbulbs this year alone.

Beijing seeks to achieve these goals by directing a significant share of China's $590bn economic stimulus package to low-carbon investment. Of that total, more than $30bn will be spent directly on environmental projects and the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions.But the indirect green share in the stimulus, in the form of investment in carbon-efficient transport and electricity transmission systems, would be far larger.HSBC Global Research estimated the total green share could be over a third of the total package.

He said the government would also plough money into the expansion of solar heating systems. He said the country was already a world leader, with 130m square metres of solar heating arrays already installed, and was planning to invest more. The US goal for solar heating by 2020 is 200m square metres.

David Sandalow, the US assistant secretary of energy, said the continuation of business as usual in China would result in a 2.7C rise in temperatures even if every other country slashed greenhouse gas emissions by 80%."China can and will need to do much more if the world is going to have any hope of containing climate change," said Sandalow, who is in Beijing as part of a senior negotiating team aiming to find common ground ahead of the crucial Copenhagen summit at the end of this year."No effective deal will be possible without the US and China, which together account for almost half of the planet's carbon emissions."