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Pedro Gonçalves

Swedish riots: if instability can happen here, what might unfold elsewhere? | Aditya Chakrabortty | Comment is free | The Guardian - 0 views

www.guardian.co.uk/...ish-riots-inequality-stockholm

Sweden Society

shared by Pedro Gonçalves on 30 May 13 - No Cached
  • We all know the cliches, but the reality is they no longer fit the country so well. Whether it's on the wealth gap, or welfare, or public services, Sweden is less "Swedish" than it has ever been. As in other continental capitals, the Stockholm version of the "European social model" is an increasingly tattered thing, albeit still appealed to by the political elites and still resonant in the popular culture.
  • parties of all persuasions have drifted rightwards over the past few years. It was the left that, in 2005, abolished inheritance tax, so that a Swede will now pay no duty on being left a million kronor, but will face a tax of 67% for starting their own business. And when it comes to privatising public services, Stockholm is way out in front of Westminster.
  • while much of the initial rise in inequality was about rich Swedes getting richer, increasingly poor Swedes are getting pushed backwards, either by unemployment and incapacity benefits getting relatively meaner, or by the rise in joblessness. On some measures, one in four young Swedes are out of work. In some towns, they are handed money to emigrate to richer Norway. Von Sydow lives in Oslo and observes: "In any local cafe, the barista will be a Swede."
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  • The first thing to observe about Sweden is how rapidly a gulf is opening up between rich and poor. Between 1985 and the late 2000s, according to the OECD thinktank, Sweden saw the biggest growth in inequality of all the 31 most industrialised countries. It's important not to overstate this: the country remains one of the most egalitarian in the world – but it is taking big steps in the wrong direction.
  • The Economist, that inflight magazine for the autodidactic plutocrat, recently wrote: "The streets of Stockholm are awash with the blood of sacred cows." It then went on to praise its school system as in the image of Milton Friedman. Except that as social-policy academic Joakim Palme observes, the school system has got worse on the Pisa international rankings.
  • Sweden's economy is still growing
Pedro Gonçalves

David Cameron faces EU cabinet crisis as ministers break ranks | Politics | The Guardian - 0 views

www.guardian.co.uk/...ferendum-cabinet-david-cameron

UK EU Eurosceptics

shared by Pedro Gonçalves on 13 May 13 - No Cached
  • David Cameron is struggling to maintain Tory discipline over Europe after cabinet loyalists Michael Gove and Philip Hammond said on Sunday they would vote to leave the European Union if a referendum were to be held now.
  • Gove, the education minister, confirmed for the first time that he believes that leaving the EU would have "certain advantages", while Hammond, the defence secretary, later said he too would vote to leave if he was asked to endorse the EU "exactly as it is today".
  • The remarks, which follow similar calls by Lord Lawson and Michael Portillo last week for Britain to leave Europe, are particularly significant because they are the first cabinet ministers to say they would vote to quit if an immediate referendum were held.
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  • The prime minister says that, if elected with a majority in 2015, he would hold a referendum by 2017. This would take place after a renegotiation of Britain's membership terms.
  • Hammond, interviewed for Pienaar's Politics on BBC radio, later said: "If the choice is between a European Union written exactly as it is today and not being a part of that then I have to say that I'm on the side of the argument that Michael Gove has put forward."
  • Theresa May, the home secretary, said she too would abstain. But she declined to say whether she would vote to leave the EU if a referendum were held now. The prime minister will be in the US when the Commons vote is held.
  • Boris Johnson backed Tory backbench demands for an EU referendum bill and warned Cameron he must make it clear Britain is "ready to walk away" unless its relationship is fundamentally reformed,
  • But the mayor of London also suggested that leaving the EU would expose the idea that most of Britain's problems are self-inflicted. "If we left the EU, we would end this sterile debate, and we would have to recognise that most of our problems are not caused by 'Bwussels', but by chronic British short-termism, inadequate management, sloth, low skills, a culture of easy gratification and underinvestment in both human and physical capital and infrastructure," Johnson wrote in his Daily Telegraph column."Why are we still, person for person, so much less productive than the Germans? That is now a question more than a century old, and the answer is nothing to do with the EU. In or out of the EU, we must have a clear vision of how we are going to be competitive in a global economy."
  • The prime minister's decision to highlight the benefits of EU membership is likely to be welcomed by Obama, whose advisers expressed concern in the runup to Cameron's EU speech in January, when he outlined his referendum plan.
Pedro Gonçalves

The European dream is in dire need of a reality check | Simon Jenkins | Comment is free | The Guardian - 0 views

www.guardian.co.uk/...dream-badly-need-reality-check

EU Europe

shared by Pedro Gonçalves on 26 Apr 13 - No Cached
  • In every one of the big European states, trust has gone into "a vertiginous decline". Five years ago, no country, not even Britain, showed more than half its voters hostile to Europe, and most were strongly supportive. Now, according to the EU's own Eurobarometer, distrust runs at 53% in Italy, 56% in France, 59% in Germany, 69% in the UK and 72% in Spain. The EU has lost the support of two thirds of its citizens. Does it matter?
  • "Anti-Europeanism" was growing across Europe even before the credit crunch – witness the Lisbon treaty referendums. It is reflected in the rise of nationalist parties and is rampant even among such one-time EU loyalists as Spain, Italy, Greece and Germany. As the head of the European Council on Foreign Relations, José Ignacio Torreblanca, said of yesterday's poll, "The damage is so deep that it does not matter whether you come from a creditor or debtor country … citizens now think their national democracy is being subverted."
  • Dreams make dangerous politics, and when they require the imposition of "yet more Europe" against the run of public opinion, they are badly in need of a reality check. The new requirement that the EU (in this case Germany) imposes budgets on indebted states goes far beyond anything domestic voters seem likely to tolerate.Barroso's dream is becoming the vision espoused by the Columbia professor of European history István Deák, who demanded last year in the New York Times "a new imperial construct" as the only alternative to save the continent from a "revival of tribalism". To Deák this new empire was "a sacred task … an almost religious goal: a new European faith that belongs to no church".
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  • Even a majority of Germans are now anti-EU, and a third want the deutschmark back.
  • Cameron and the sceptics therefore need to be constructive to be plausible. They need to argue for a European Bretton Woods, to write off bad debts and recalibrate regional economies by returning to revalued regional currencies. They need to propose European institutions that respect national politics and character, not just grab more power to the centre. There needs to be a sceptics' vision of Europe.Closer European union was an answer to war. After that it offered an answer to communist dictatorship. In both it could claim success. Finally, at Maastricht in 1992, it flew too near the sun. It pretended that one currency traded within a single politico-economic space could overcome economic diversity and yield a common wealth. It overreached itself. In refusing to recognise this failure, Barroso and his colleagues now risk jeopardising even Europe's earlier successes.
Pedro Gonçalves

Latvia to apply for eurozone membership within weeks | Business | The Guardian - 0 views

www.guardian.co.uk/...tvia-apply-eurozone-membership

EU Euro Latvia Poland

shared by Pedro Gonçalves on 19 Feb 13 - No Cached
  • Poland is the only EU country not to have fallen into recession since the Lehman Brothers crash. Increasingly it sees its future in being as closely integrated in the EU as possible, playing the regional leader and usurping Britain's position in policy-making influence.
  • For that to succeed, euro membership is essential as the zone binds itself into closer political and economic regimes and becomes the key decision-taking forum. The Polish president recently established a high-powered committee to examine and foster eurozone membership. Warsaw is now talking of a 2017 deadline.
  • whatever happens to the euro happens to us anyway. Our economy is completely euro-ised: 80% of borrowing, households and businesses, is in euros. This will help financial and economic stability."Similar arguments are made in Lithuania, while in Poland the impetus is less economic than political and geo-political. Warsaw appears resolved to hitch itself to Germany, and deems it a national security imperative, worried about Vladimir Putin's Russia, to embed itself utterly in the EU. It increasingly sees the eurozone as the safest of havens, despite the volatility.
Pedro Gonçalves

Dmitry Medvedev tells Davos fears for Russia's stability are unfounded | Business | guardian.co.uk - 0 views

www.guardian.co.uk/...dmitry-medvedev-davos-russia

Russia Economy

shared by Pedro Gonçalves on 24 Jan 13 - No Cached
  • The Russian prime minister, Dmitry Medvedev, has swatted aside warnings that his government faces a middle class revolt if it does not embrace deeper economic and political reforms.
  • A session on Russia at the annual World Economic Forum in Davos on Wednesday heard that the Russian Federation faces several negative scenarios, including the potential threat of civil unrest. A straw poll of WEF associates in the audience found nearly 80% saw better governance as Russia's biggest challenge.
  • Alexey Kudrin, a professor at Saint Petersburg State University, said there were "serious, negative" warnings coming from Russia's business community. He outlined a scenario in which falling oil prices send Russia's budget forecasts off track, forcing the government to hike taxes and slash spending on social programmes, and freezing reform efforts.
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  • "Failure to make reforms will eventually mean a burden on businesses through higher taxes, and also hit small businesses and the middle classes. That leads to the stagnation of the Russian economy."
  • From the audience, Russian businessman Oleg Deripaska called for the country's interest rates – currently as high as 8.25% - to be lowered. "Our high interest rates will hamper economic growth, not just for banks but for small firms too."
Pedro Gonçalves

David Cameron warned off 'opportunism' over Europe | Politics | The Guardian - 0 views

www.guardian.co.uk/...eron-warned-opportunism-europe

UK EU

shared by Pedro Gonçalves on 16 Jan 13 - No Cached
  • David Cameron risks making "premature" and "opportunistic" demands in Europe and weakening Britain's power in Washington and other major capitals, the most senior diplomat to leave government in recent years has warned.Sir Nigel Sheinwald, Britain's ambassador to Washington until last year and before that the senior British diplomat in Brussels, said in a Guardian interview that recent warnings by the US administration urging Britain against staging a distracting referendum was "a conscious decision by the Obama administration to intervene in the UK debate", reflecting a long-standing view that it wanted its closest political ally closely involved in Europe.
  • Sheinwald said: "If Britain is active and influential in Washington that makes us more influential in Brussels, Delhi and elsewhere. Equally if we are influential in Europe, then we have a bigger impact in Washington and the other power capitals of the world. These things are mutually reinforcing.
  • "I just cannot see any logical basis for thinking a move to the sidelines, or particularly a move out of Europe, would be anything other than diminishing to UK's capacity, standing, influence, ability to get things done and capacity to build coalitions internationally."
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  • Sheinwald, who was ambassador to Washington between 2007 and 2012, is the most senior diplomatic figure to urge caution on Cameron. He was also the UK diplomatic lead in Brussels between 2000 and 2003, as well as chief foreign policy adviser to Tony Blair between 2003 and 2007. He is now a member of the thinktank and advocacy group Business for New Europe.
  • "We have sold investment in the UK on the basis that the UK is the best gateway into the single market. That is the way we have presented ourselves. American firms and firms from the far east have based themselves in London for that reason. That has been such a success over the past decade or 15 years."
  • "Investors are worried by the thought that we are going to end up outside the EU by mistake, or without thinking through the economic consequences or end up with an inferior model like Norway or Switzerland."
  • Such a move would exclude many foreign owned financial services from Britain, he said.
  • Philip Gordon, the US under-secretary for European affairs, last week used a briefing in the UK to urged Cameron not to hold a referendum.Sheinwald said the White House regard "another dose of uncertainty on top of the euro crisis as deeply unwelcome".
  • "They know it affects the pace of the recovery of the European economy. But they also know it will affect the ability of Europe to focus on other things so it will contribute to a weakening of European resolve for example in the middle east and whether Europe has a capacity in the area of security and defence. It will affect our ability to project our power and work with America on world problems."He added: "The idea, if there were an idea, of going it alone being somehow appealing to our traditional partners or to our future partners in Asia or elsewhere in the world has been undermined very significantly by the comments made by the Obama administration."
Janice Miller

Obama Policies Keeping Lid on Stock Prices | Fox Business News - 0 views

www.foxbusiness.com/...es-keeping-lid-on-stock-prices

US economy Ed Butowsky

shared by Janice Miller on 19 Sep 12 - No Cached
  • Janice Miller on 19 Sep 12
     
    Higher stock prices would result to good economic conditions.
Pedro Gonçalves

World economies prepare for panic after Greek polls | Reuters - 0 views

uk.reuters.com/...eurozone-idUKBRE85805E20120614

EU Euro Economy Greece

shared by Pedro Gonçalves on 17 Jun 12 - No Cached
  • Officials from the G20 nations, whose leaders are meeting in Mexico next week, said that central banks were ready to take steps to stabilize financial markets - if needed - by providing liquidity and prevent any credit squeeze after Sunday's election. Canada is "ready to act" if the situation takes a serious turn for the worse of there is "an external shock," Andrew MacDougall, a spokesman for Prime Minister Stephen Harper, said on Thursday.
  • Greek banking stocks soared more than 20 percent on Thursday amid market talk that secret opinion polls were showing that a government favourable to the international bailout agreement was likely to emerge after the June 17 election.
  • Central bankers are ready to ensure enough cash is flowing through the financial system if severe market strains emerge after the elections in Greece, which coincide with votes in Egypt and France, G20 officials said."The central banks are preparing for coordinated action to provide liquidity," said a senior G20 aide familiar with discussions among international financial diplomats.
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  • Britain did not wait for the elections to announce action. Bank of England Governor Mervyn King said the country would launch a scheme to provide cheap long-term funding to banks to encourage them to lend to businesses and consumers.
  • King said the euro zone's problems were causing a crisis of confidence in Britain that was leading to a self-reinforcing weaker picture of growth."The black cloud has dampened animal spirits so that businesses and households are battening down the hatches to prepare for the storms ahead," he said.
  • Faced with Greek defiance, officials said the euro zone would not tear up the main targets of the bailout no matter who wins the elections, but it might consider giving a new government in Athens some leeway on how it reaches them.
  • "The headline targets cannot be changed," one senior EU official told Reuters. "There could be some tweaks to the path to get there, but not the goals.
  • One euro-zone official said that the main concern, if SYRIZA overwhelmingly won the election, was the risk of large capital outflows from Greece if depositors worry their savings in euros could later be frozen or converted into new drachmas."It is not even about a bank run on Monday morning after the elections. People can now log on to Internet banking and make transfers on Sunday evening as well," an official said, explaining the rationale of the ministerial call.
  • Visiting Rome, Hollande called for the euro zone to adopt bold new mechanisms to insulate member states and their banks from market turmoil, such as a joint fund to pay down debt, putting him on a collision course with Berlin."We need imagination and creativity to find new financial instruments," Hollande told a news conference. "To deepen financial union, there are many options such as a financial transactions tax and joint debt issuance, including euro bonds, euro bills or a debt redemption fund."
  • However, Merkel rejected "miracle solutions" such as issuing joint euro bonds or creating a Europe-wide deposit guarantee scheme. Such proposals were "counterproductive" and would violate the German constitution, she told parliament.
  • She warned against overstraining the resources of Europe's biggest economy, saying: "Germany is putting this strength and this power to use for the well-being of people, not just in Germany but also t
Pedro Gonçalves

BBC News - Greek exit would be 'catastrophe', says former Greek PM - 0 views

www.bbc.co.uk/...business-18477034

EU Euro Economy Greece

shared by Pedro Gonçalves on 17 Jun 12 - No Cached
  • Mr Papandreou told the BBC that, given more time, Greece could abide by the terms of the bailouts. "The euro is keeping us stable. Leaving would mean a bank run, higher inflation, deep wage cuts and a fall in GDP of more than 20% - it would be a major catastrophe," he said. But Mr Papandreou said Greece was not the problem. "If it was, you could simply kick out Greece".
  • He said the underlying problem which needed to be addressed was the architecture of the euro. There was a single currency, but "no unified banking system, no common fiscal policy, and different labour laws and pension systems".
Pedro Gonçalves

Whatever euro's fate, Europe's reputation savaged | Reuters - 0 views

uk.reuters.com/...putation-idUKBRE85F03P20120616

EU Europe US China

shared by Pedro Gonçalves on 17 Jun 12 - No Cached
  • Whether the euro lives or dies, the chaotic way Europe has tackled the crisis could undermine the region's geopolitical clout for years to come and leave it at a distinct disadvantage in a rapidly changing world.
  • "The Europeans are completely consumed with a battle to save the euro zone," says Ian Bremmer, president of political risk consultancy Eurasia Group. "It's a deep and ongoing crisis bigger than any they've experienced in decades... it's an environment where European leaders could hardly be expected to prioritise anything else."That could leave the continent being increasingly sidelined as emerging powers - not just the BRIC powers of Brazil, Russia, India and China but other states such as Turkey, Indonesia and South Africa - grow in importance.At the very least, it could undermine the ability of the continent's leaders to persuade the rest of the world to take them seriously on a range of issues, from trade to the importance of democracy and human rights."Europe probably isn't going to stop preaching to the rest of the world," says Nikolas Gvosdev, professor of national security studies at the US Naval War College. "But it's much less likely that others are going to be inclined to listen."
  • At the Copenhagen climate summit in 2009, European states suffered the indignity of being outside the room when the final deal was struck between the United States and emerging powers. In the aftermath of the euro zone crisis, it's a position European leaders may simply have to get used to.
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  • for the rest of the world, it's not just the continent itself that is rapidly losing its shine. The whole European political model - generous welfare systems, democratic decision-making, closer regional integration and the idea of a currency union as a stabilising factor - no longer seems nearly as appealing to other, still growing regions.
  • "If the euro dies, it will mark the end of the European experiment in forging closer financial and political integration. But it will also have wider international implications."
  • Chellaney argues the demise of the euro might help secure the primacy of the dollar - and therefore perhaps of the United States itself - for years to come.But others believe a European collapse would be a sign of things to come for the US as well.
  • "The health of the euro or the EU, for that matter, will have a marginal impact on gold and power that is tending any way towards Asia, especially China,"
  • While Britain and France took the political lead in Libya last year, US Defence Secretary Robert Gates complained European NATO forces were in fact almost entirely dependent on US munitions, logistics and other backup.
  • Washington takes the potential threat of Europe's unravelling very seriously. In the short-term, the Obama administration is clearly concerned over the electoral fallout should the crisis in Europe cross the Atlantic before November's presidential election.But in the longer term, whether the euro survives or not US planners are beginning to face up to the fact that the continent will likely be poorer and rather more self-centred than Washington had hoped.
  • But the change in European thinking and the additional defence spending Washington called for now looks all but impossible in this time of austerity.
  • "It's doubtful any future US Defence Secretary is even going to bother to make that kind of pitch," says Gvosdev at the US Naval War College. "We'd hoped Europe could take the lead in some parts of North Africa as well as the Balkans and Eastern Europe. That now looks very unlikely."
  • Washington's military "pivot " towards Asia, he said, had been based in part on the assumption that Europe would remain stable and wealthy and the US now had little or nothing to worry about on its North Atlantic flank. A weakened Europe could make US planners much less confident of that, particularly if China extends its influence.
  • Beijing has upped its investments in Europe in recent years, including major port projects in Greece and Italy.
  • Some waning of Europe's international influence was always likely, experts say, with an ageing population chewing up ever more resources and emerging economies inevitably growing faster. But the current crisis could supercharge its decline. Whether the continent's leaders realise that, however, is another matter.
  • "Europe's main source of influence (should) be the success of its political and economic model in providing high living standards and democratic freedoms," says Jack Goldstone, professor of international affairs at George Mason University near Washington DC "If the current crisis undermines both of those as well, Europe will look like a rather weak, badly run system of ageing and economically stagnant states. Irrelevance awaits."
Pedro Gonçalves

Analysis - Obama's Asia pivot advances, but obstacles await | Reuters - 0 views

uk.reuters.com/...ic-pivot-idUKBRE85E1B720120615

US China South East Asia

shared by Pedro Gonçalves on 17 Jun 12 - No Cached
  • the polite fiction employed by Washington serves Asia-Pacific countries who seek security assurances from the far-away United States without sacrificing important trade with nearby China and its fast-growing economy."Treading too forcefully on China's interests can and has resulted in economic reprisals against Southeast Asian countries," said Scott Harrison of Pacific Strategies and Assessments, a consultancy in Manila.
  • Beijing responded last month to its South China Sea dispute with Manila by tightening quality controls on Philippine fruit and cutting the number of visits by Chinese citizens to the Philippines.
  • Some regional security experts, however, say the renewed U.S. emphasis on Asia has emboldened China's opponents in the South China Sea dispute, an outcome Washington might not have intended."The U.S. becoming involved has fired up the Philippines and Vietnam to contest things more strongly," said Sam Bateman, a retired senior Australian naval officer and maritime security researcher at Singapore's Nanyang Technological University.
Pedro Gonçalves

BBC News - Brussels plans European banking union from 2013 - 0 views

www.bbc.co.uk/...business-18409175

Euro EU Economy Banking

shared by Pedro Gonçalves on 13 Jun 12 - No Cached
  • A single regulator to oversee banks across all 27 European Union states could be in place as early as 2013 according to the European Commission. A controversial new bank bailout fund financed by a tax on financial institutions is also planned. The proposal includes an EU-wide deposit guarantee scheme to protect savers in the event of a bank collapse.
  • European banks are the biggest lenders to EU governments. The guarantee scheme would reduce banks' risk from lending to indebted governments such as Portugal. So indebted governments could benefit from artificially low borrowing costs by piggy-backing loan guarantees from Germany without addressing their underlying economic problems. For that reason, Sabine Lautenschlaeger insists that banking union should go hand-in-hand with fiscal union to ensure all EU governments adhere to strict budget policies. And that insistence could stall the whole banking union process.
  • Mr Barroso's plan would create a bank rescue fund from levies on financial institutions across the EU, effectively reducing company profits and shareholder dividends. This could also remove the possibility of one set of taxpayers, for example, in Germany, having to bail out savers in another country such as Spain.
Pedro Gonçalves

Germany Should Leave the Euro but Probably Can't - David Champion - Our Editors - Harvard Business Review - 0 views

blogs.hbr.org/...should_leave_the_euro_but.html

Economy Euro EU Germany

shared by Pedro Gonçalves on 11 Jun 12 - No Cached
  • a break-up of the euro may not in Germany's short-term interests.
  • Being in the euro helped Germany become more productive relative to its southern neighbors. If Germany still had a deutschmark, the discipline of its businesses would have been rewarded by a relative increase in its value, thereby limiting the disparity between Germany and other countries. Germany would not, therefore, have experienced to such a degree the low unemployment and healthy growth that its voters have gotten used to. In turn, this would have tempered the flow of German funds recycled southwards as investments in Greek, Spanish, and other assets, reducing the bubble pressure on Club Med asset prices.
  • Breaking up the euro, whether by Greece and Spain or by Germany, could at a stroke eliminate those productivity advantages and possibly stall the German economy. It could also instantly crystallize losses on assets held by German savers in Club Med bonds and loans, probably necessitating an immediate capitalization of the German banking system. In other words, the problems currently being experienced in the South would get transferred to the North.
  • ...1 more annotation...
  • it's easy to see why German politicians might be hesitant to actually take the initiative on breaking up the euro. Reviving the deutschmark will involve certain and immediate pain for German voters. Muddling through might cushion that pain by leaving more of it with other electorates and enable German voters to blame the policies and work-cultures of Southern Europe.
Pedro Gonçalves

How Iran's Clerics Can Undermine Ahmadinejad - International Analyst Network - 0 views

www.analyst-network.com/article.php

Iran Iran Elections 2009 Qom Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani Iranian Revolutionary Guards Bonyads Ali Khamenei Expediency Council

shared by Pedro Gonçalves on 22 Jun 09 - Cached
  • Although the president has the support of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corp (IRGC), the clerics still have considerable power over the country's charitable foundations (Bonyads). These multibillion dollar business organizations don't report their income or pay taxes. They report directly to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Their participation in the economy is crucial. They could make life difficult for Ahmadinejad's presidency by increasing their business clout in areas where the IRGC is trying to muscle in. These industries include energy, construction and the import/export sector. Last year, these clerics scored a major victory. Bonyade Mostazafin (Charity foundation for the dispossessed) was allowed to buy and sell oil, allowing them to compete directly with Iran's National Oil Company. This raised the fury of Ahmadinejad's supporters. As means of checking Ahmadinejad's power, they could expand further into this sector, or compete in the lucrative construction sector. These companies also have huge financial assets. These can be used to finance new businesses which compete directly with the IRGC.
  • They could also side with Ayatollah Rafsanjani. It is an accepted fact that Rafsanjani financed part of Mousavi's campaign. This obviously dented Ahmadinejad's popularity. So much so, apparently, that Ayatollah Khamenei felt compelled to assist the president by allowing fraud. Rafsanjani is already a millionaire many times over. Should the clergy start helping him financially, using his political muscle in the Assembly of Experts and the Expediency Council, he could further challenge Ahmadinejad politically.
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