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Pedro Gonçalves

How Iran's Clerics Can Undermine Ahmadinejad - International Analyst Network - 0 views

  • Although the president has the support of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corp (IRGC), the clerics still have considerable power over the country's charitable foundations (Bonyads). These multibillion dollar business organizations don't report their income or pay taxes. They report directly to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Their participation in the economy is crucial. They could make life difficult for Ahmadinejad's presidency by increasing their business clout in areas where the IRGC is trying to muscle in. These industries include energy, construction and the import/export sector. Last year, these clerics scored a major victory. Bonyade Mostazafin (Charity foundation for the dispossessed) was allowed to buy and sell oil, allowing them to compete directly with Iran's National Oil Company. This raised the fury of Ahmadinejad's supporters. As means of checking Ahmadinejad's power, they could expand further into this sector, or compete in the lucrative construction sector. These companies also have huge financial assets. These can be used to finance new businesses which compete directly with the IRGC.
  • They could also side with Ayatollah Rafsanjani. It is an accepted fact that Rafsanjani financed part of Mousavi's campaign. This obviously dented Ahmadinejad's popularity. So much so, apparently, that Ayatollah Khamenei felt compelled to assist the president by allowing fraud. Rafsanjani is already a millionaire many times over. Should the clergy start helping him financially, using his political muscle in the Assembly of Experts and the Expediency Council, he could further challenge Ahmadinejad politically.
Pedro Gonçalves

Former Iran President at Center of Fight Between Classes of the Political Elite - NYTim... - 0 views

  • “I see the country’s political elite more divided than anytime in the Islamic Republic’s 30-year history,” said Karim Sadjadpour, a political analyst with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “Rafsanjani, one of the republic’s founding fathers, the man who made Khameini Supreme Leader, is now in the opposition.”
  • “I see the country’s political elite more divided than anytime in the Islamic Republic’s 30-year history,” said Karim Sadjadpour, a political analyst with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “Rafsanjani, one of the republic’s founding fathers, the man who made Khameini Supreme Leader, is now in the opposition.”
  • It seems clear that the 75-year-old is at the center of a fight for the future of the Islamic Republic. Mr. Rafsanjani’s vision of the state, and his position in his nation’s history, is being challenged by a new political elite led by Mr. Ahmadinejad and younger radicals who fought Iraq during the eight-year war.
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  • Mr. Ahmadinejad and his allies have tried to demonize Mr. Rafsanjani as corrupt and weak, attacks that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has not strongly discouraged. On the other side, opposition leaders, especially Mr. Moussavi, have received support from Mr. Rajsanjani, political analysts said.
  • It is a quirk of history that Mr. Rafsanjani, the ultimate insider, finds himself aligned with a reform movement that once vilified him as deeply corrupt. Mr. Rafsanjani was doctrinaire anti-American hard-liner in the early days of the revolution who remains under indictment for ordering the bombing in of a Jewish center in Buenos Aires in 1994 when he was president. But he has evolved over time to a more pragmatic view, analysts say.
  • He supports greater opening to the West, privatizing parts of the economy, and granting more power to civil elected institutions. His view is opposite of those in power now who support a stronger religious establishment and have done little to modernize the stagnant economy.
  • “At a political level what’s taking place now, among many other things, is the 20-year rivalry between Khamenei and Rafsanjani coming to a head,” Mr. Sadjadpour said. “It’s an Iranian version of the Corleones and the Tattaglias; there are no good guys and bad guys, only bad and worse.”
  • It is not clear what leverage Mr. Rajsanjani can bring to this contest. If he speaks out, the relative said, he will lose his ability to broker a compromise. Mr. Rafsanjani leads two powerful councils, one that technically has oversight of the supreme leader, but it is not clear that he could exercise that authority to challenge Ayatollah Khamenei directly.
  • Mr. Rafsanjani has been in opposition before. In the days of the shah, he was a religious student of Ayatollah Khomeini at the center of Shiite learning, in the city of Qum. He was imprisoned under the shah, and became so closely associated with the revolutionary leader he was known as “melijak Khomeini,” or “sidekick of Khomeini.”’ After 1979, he went on to become the speaker of Parliament.
  • Mr. Rafsanjani later served two terms as president and was instrumental in elevating Ayatollah Khamenei to replace Ayatollah Khomenei in 1989.
  • People who worked in the government at the time said that Mr. Rafsanjani, as president, ran the nation — while Ayatollah Khameini followed his lead. But over time the two grew apart, as Ayatollah Khameini found his own political constituency in the military and Mr. Rafsanjani found his own reputation sullied. He is often accused of corruption because of the great wealth he and his family amassed.
  • He was so damaged politically that after he left the presidency, he failed to win enough votes to enter Parliament. In 2002, he was appointed to the head of the Expediency Council, which is supposed to arbitrate disputes between the elected Parliament and the unelected Guardian Council.
  • And in 2005, he ran for president again but lost in a runoff to Mr. Ahmadinejad. He was then elected to lead the Assembly of Experts. The body has the power to oversee the supreme leader and replace him when he dies, but its members rarely exercise power day to day.
Pedro Gonçalves

Q&A with Iranian Opposition Politician Ebrahim Yazdi Asharq Alawsat Newspaper (English) - 0 views

  • the accusations and the insults that Ahmadinejad directed at some of the most senior politicians such as Hashemi Rafsanjani, Mohammed Khatami and even Natiq Nouri – who is one of the most senior advisers to the Supreme Leader whose children Ahmadinejad accused of accumulating wealth illicitly – not only deepens divisions between different branches of the government but also brought these divisions into public view for the first time and in an unprecedented manner.
  • In the letter, Rafsanjani requested that Khamanei break his silence but what happened on Saturday morning, a few hours after the elections, and even before the final results were announced, was that Khamanei rushed to congratulate Ahmadinejad and endorsed the results. That was not normal at all because usually after elections the Council of Guardians and the Ministry of Interior await complaints that may be raised by parties taking part in the elections, expecting there to have been irregularities. Presidential candidates have the right to raise complaints before the results are verified but the Supreme Leader did not wait for this process to take place and he quickly congratulated Ahmadinejad who in turn called on his supporters to celebrate in Vali Asr in Tehran and Iranian state television began to broadcast messages of congratulations from various leaders and presidents to Ahmadinejad on his reelection.
  • if the results weren’t final and the candidates could raise their complaints how could the Supreme Leader declare his support for the results? The Supreme Leader’s behavior caused a lot of serious questions to be raised by the grand Ayatollahs in Iran and members of the Assembly of Experts headed by Rafsanjani, which has the right to dismiss the Supreme Leader according to the Constitution. It raised many questions about the Supreme Leader’s validity.
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  • In Qom, Grand Ayatollah Saanei issued a fatwa prohibiting working with the Ahmadinejad government based on the consideration that it is an illegitimate government. He considers this “religiously prohibited.” Therefore, amongst grand Ayatollahs and members of the Assembly of Experts questions are being raised about the “validity of the Supreme Leader.” So the Assembly of Experts’ priority now is to be sure about the Supreme Leader and if they find that he is not valid then it has the right to dismiss him from his position. That is what the constitution says.
  • these elections have not only deepened divisions between the nation, the government and the authorities; they have also deepened divisions between effective elements of the ruling elite in Iran. Hashemi Rafsanjani, the head of the Assembly of Experts and of the Expediency Discernment Council, who has significant political weight, was president for two terms so he has influence within the elite. [Mohammad] Khatami was president for eight years. [Mehdi] Karroubi was Parliament Speaker. All of these people are standing against Khamanei and Ahmadinejad. What I will say is that the divisions within the ruling elite in Iran are not only deepening; they are taking place openly for everyone to witness.
  • My fear is that if there is no wise and rational response to the crisis the leadership of the reformist movement, and even Mir Hossein Moussavi himself, will not be able to control the protestors.
  • here are statistics that show that Moussavi won the elections and that Karoubbi came second and Ahmadinejad third. This means that there must be some kind of settlement behind the scenes between governing parties in Iran to take the elections to a second round between Ahmadinejad and Moussavi. This is the only way they could save face.
  • If the Council of Experts is saying ‘raise your complaints’ then this means that the Supreme Leader was wrong to congratulate Ahmadinejad so quickly
  • I believe that the one way to solve this situation is by accepting a compromise to hold a second round of elections between Ahmadinejad and Moussavi. In this round, nobody would dare interfere with the voting and there will be more supervision over the voting process and Moussavi will win.
  • Q) But he has the support of the Revolutionary Guards, which in turn support Ahmadinejad. Isn’t that a source of power for him?A) If we look back on the history of the Middle East, including my country Iran, there have been instances when the military itself has killed its own king.
Argos Media

World news Feed Article | World news | guardian.co.uk - 0 views

  • "Like you, I believe the correct path is reforms that return to (Islamic) principles but refine them," Mousavi said Tuesday in a message to Khatami
  • "Mousavi is seeking to win the support of both reformers and moderate conservatives," said Tehran-based political analyst Hedayat Aghaei.
  • He clashed with Khamenei — then Iran's president — over political authority and powers. The prime minister post was eliminated after Mousavi's term.
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  • He was firmly part of the political inner circle after the 1979 Islamic Revolution, serving as editor of Jomhuri Eslami, which was the state newspaper at the time. He then was prime minister from 1981-89 — spanning nearly the entire eight-year war with Iraq that left an estimated 1 million dead and plunged Iran into a crippling economic crisis. There were early hints, however, that he chafed against the system even as he was hailed as a revolutionary patriot.
  • Since leaving office, he has generally stayed in the background in advisory roles and as a member of the Expediency Council, which mediates between the parliament and the non-elected Guardian Council, which is directly influenced by the supreme leader.
  • "To hard-liners, Mousavi is a more acceptable version of Khatami. And to reformists, Mousavi is a moderate who won't seek profound changes," said Hasan Vazini, a political commentator at the conservative Tehran-e-Emrooz newspaper. But others believe that this type of middle ground approach will do little to shake Iran's establishment. "(Mousavi) is Ahmadinejad without the invective or anger," said Patrick Clawson, deputy director of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. "He does not appear to be a bold reformer."
  • Political analyst Vazini said that "with Khatami out of the race, conservatives are not so likely anymore to support Ahmadinejad as their sole candidate." The Islamic Iran Participation Front, the country's largest reformist party, quickly threw its support behind Mousavi, a trained architect who is known as an accomplished amateur painter.
Pedro Gonçalves

The Associated Press: Top cleric may be playing role in Iran unrest - 0 views

  • A camp of pragmatic clerics and politicians led by Rafsanjani, while loyal to the revolution's principles, wants to build better ties with the West and a more friendly image of Iran."What is clear is that the leadership is far more polarized and splintered than has been clear in the past," said Anthony Cordesman, a former Pentagon analyst with the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies.
  • "Now that the leader has made clear he was supportive of Ahmadinejad and sharing the same vision of the future of the Islamic Republic, it can be taken as a major defeat for Rafsanjani and for the political options he promotes," said Frederic Tellier, an Iran expert in the International Crisis Group, a Brussels-based think tank.
  • Rafsanjani was president between 1989 and 1997, but failed to win a third term when in 2005, losing to Ahmadinejad in a runoff. He was a close follower of the late Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, father of Iran's Islamic Revolution. He now heads the Expediency Council, a body that arbitrates disputes between parliament and the unelected Guardian Council, which can block legislation.He also is the head of the powerful Assembly of Experts, which comprises senior clerics who can elect and dismiss the country's supreme leader.
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  • Alireza Nader, an expert on Iran with the RAND corporation, says Rafsanjani retains some leverage against Khamenei and Ahmadinejad as chairman of the Assembly of Experts. However, he says, Khamenei ignored a letter Rafsanjani wrote asking him to restrain Ahmadinejad, who accused the former president of corruption in a televised debate.Ignoring the letter, Nader said, "was perceived by many Iranians as a rebuke to Rafsanjani and his role in the political system."Rafsanjani's influence may have significantly dissipated as a result, he said."Rafsanjani is a son of the revolution," said Tellier of the International Crisis Group. "But his own future depends on how far the leader will allow Ahmadinejad to go in his attacks against Rafsanjani and his family."
Pedro Gonçalves

BBC News - Iran jails former President Rafsanjani's daughter - 0 views

  • he daughter of the former Iranian President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani has been sentenced to six months in prison for "making propaganda against the ruling system". Faezeh Hashemi Rafsanjani's trial took place behind closed doors last month. According to the conservative website Mashregh News, she has been banned from taking part in political, cultural and media activities for five years.
  • Correspondents say that her punishment may be turned into a suspended jail term on appeal, as often happens with opponents of the Iranian authorities.
  • Faezah Rafsanjani has given interviews in recent months in which she defended her father's position - and this appears to be her offence. Akbar Rafsanjani has refused to condemn Iran's two most prominent pro-reform leaders.
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  • She was briefly detained in February 2011 after taking part in a banned protest march.
  • The former president's political influence has decreased in recent years, and his website was recently shut down.
  • In 2009, during the protests that followed President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's controversial re-election, Mr Rafsanjani angered hard-liners by calling for the release of detained opposition members. In March 2011 he lost his position as head of Iran's highest clerical body, the Assembly of Experts. He now retains only one political position, as head of the Expediency Council, but his term there ends in April and it is unclear whether he will keep that role.
Argos Media

BBC NEWS | Middle East | Mousavi enters Iran's June poll - 0 views

  • The influential former Iranian Prime Minister, Mir Hossein Mousavi, will contest the Iranian presidential election on 12 June. Mr Mousavi, who speaks Persian, English and Arabic, held office during the Iran-Iraq War of 1980-1988. His candidacy may split voters opposed to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the current president who is likely to stand again. His rivals include ex-President Mohammad Khatami and Mahdi Karroubi, both of whom are leading moderates.
  • Mr Mousavi was the prime minister under the presidency of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who is now the Islamic Republic's supreme leader. He is also a member of Iran's Expediency Council which is the country's top political arbitration body.
Pedro Gonçalves

Millionaire Mullahs - Forbes.com - 0 views

  • t's rumble time in Tehran. At dozens of intersections in the capital of Iran thousands of students are protesting on a recent Friday around midnight, as they do nearly every night, chanting pro-democracy slogans and lighting bonfires on street corners. Residents of the surrounding middle-class neighborhoods converge in their cars, honking their horns in raucous support. Suddenly there's thunder in the air. A gang of 30 motorcyclists, brandishing iron bars and clubs as big as baseball bats, roars through the stalled traffic. They glare at the drivers, yell threats, thump cars. Burly and bearded, the bikers yank two men from their auto and pummel them. Most protesters scatter. Uniformed policemen watch impassively as the thugs beat the last stragglers.
  • These Hell's Angels are part of the Hezbollah militia, recruited mostly from the countryside. Iran's ruling mullahs roll them out whenever they need to intimidate their opponents. The Islamic Republic is a strange dictatorship. As it moves to repress growing opposition to clerical rule, the regime relies not on soldiers or uniformed police (many of whom sympathize with the protesters) but on the bullies of Hezbollah and the equally thuggish Revolutionary Guards. The powers that be claim to derive legitimacy from Allah but remain on top with gangsterlike methods of intimidation, violence and murder.
  • Who controls today's Iran? Certainly not Mohammad Khatami, the twice-elected moderate president, or the reformist parliament. Not even the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, a stridently anti-American but unremarkable cleric plucked from the religious ranks 14 years ago to fill the shoes of his giant predecessor, Ayatollah Khomeini, is fully in control. The real power is a handful of clerics and their associates who call the shots behind the curtain and have gotten very rich in the process.
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  • The 1979 revolution expropriated the assets of foreign investors and the nation's wealthiest families; oil had long been nationalized, but the mullahs seized virtually everything else of value--banks, hotels, car and chemical companies, makers of drugs and consumer goods. What distinguishes Iran is that many of these assets were given to Islamic charitable foundations, controlled by the clerics. According to businessmen and former foundation executives, the charities now serve as slush funds for the mullahs and their supporters.
  • Dozens of interviews with businessmen, merchants, economists and former ministers and other top government officials reveal a picture of a dictatorship run by a shadow government that--the U.S. State Department suspects--finances terrorist groups abroad through a shadow foreign policy. Its economy is dominated by shadow business empires and its power is protected by a shadow army of enforcers.
  • Ironically, the man most adept at manipulating this hidden power structure is one of Iran's best-known characters--Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, who has been named an ayatollah, or religious leader. He was the speaker of parliament and Khomeini's right-hand man in the 1980s, president of Iran from 1989 to 1997 and is now chairman of the powerful Expediency Council, which resolves disputes between the clerical establishment and parliament. Rafsanjani has more or less run the Islamic Republic for the past 24 years.
  • He played it smart, aligning himself in the 1960s with factions led by Ayatollah Khomeini, then becoming the go-to guy after the revolution. A hard-liner ideologically, Rafsanjani nonetheless has a pragmatic streak. He convinced Khomeini to end the Iran-Iraq war and broke Iran's international isolation by establishing trade relations with the Soviet Union, China, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. In the 1990s he restarted Iran's nuclear program. He is also the father of Iran's "privatization" program. During his presidency the stock market was revived, some government companies were sold to insiders, foreign trade was liberalized and the oil sector was opened up to private companies. Most of the good properties and contracts, say dissident members of Iran's Chamber of Commerce, ended up in the hands of mullahs, their associates and, not least, Rafsanjani's own family, who rose from modest origins as small-scale pistachio farmers.
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