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American officials say they believe that Mr. Kim, in rapidly declining health, is maneuvering to make his youngest son, Kim Jong-un, his successor, perhaps after a period in which his brother-in-law, Jang Seong-taek, would serve as a regent.

The nuclear test and the test-firing of six short-range missiles, the American officials said, must be understood within the context of this internal struggle to extend the Kim dynasty’s rule for another generation.

“The North Korean leadership cares about internal matters, not external matters,” said Wendy R. Sherman, who coordinated North Korea policy in the Clinton administration. “They care about external matters only insofar as it helps ensure the survival of the regime.”Under those circumstances, she said, North Korea is not likely to be receptive to incentives. And it may have concluded that having nuclear weapons is a necessity for its own preservation.