Aging report

You Can! Steps to Healthier Aging You Can! is the aging component of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Servicse' Steps to a HealthierUS initiative, which encourages Americans of every age to make healthier choices for physical activity and exercise.

New Zealand's demographic outlook—a likely doubling in the proportion of elderly people by 2050—is similar to that of many countries. Moreover, health care studies in other countries have reached similar conclusions about past and future expenditure growth (Newhouse, 1993; Cutler and Sheiner, 1998; Jacobzone, Cambois, and Robine, 2000). Internationally, aging is likely to exert the same consistent, but manageable, pressure on health expenditure. Thus, if health expenditures reach unsustainable levels in coming decades, it will not be because of population aging.

Simulations show that population aging is likely to slow economic growth and improvements in living standards. Although reforms to raise labor force participation and productivity growth can mitigate these adverse effects, they are unlikely to eliminate the need for fiscal reforms. The budget will come under pressure from rising age-related expenditures, and consolidation will be needed to preserve debt sustainability.

Many Asian countries (such as China, Singapore, Korea, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, India, and the Philippines) will experience a significant aging of their populations during the next several decades. This paper explores how these aging Asian countries are addressing and anticipating the challenges of an aging society. It suggests that Asia's preparedness for an aging population is decidedly mixed. While growth policies have been successful, much work is still needed in many countries to establish an adequate and farsighted policy framework in the areas of pensions, health insurance, and labor market policies.

Without reforms, the simulations suggest that aging-related spending as a share of output will increase 16 percentage points by 2050, which are twice as much as in European Commission (2006) projections due to general equilibrium effects.

In responding to population ageing, the Australian Government takes a whole-of-government perspective across superannuation and retirement income support, workforce, housing, social inclusion and life long education, as well as medical, health and aged care services

Putting the pension system on a sustainable footing arguably remains the biggest challenge in Russia's economic policies. The debate about the policy options was hitherto constrained by the absence of general equilibrium analysis. This paper fills this gap by simulating their macroeconomic effects in a DSGE model calibrated to Russia's economy-the first of its kind to the best of our knowledge. The results suggest that a minimum benefit level in the public system should optimally be financed through lower government consumption, while higher taxation of labor and capital should be avoided. Reducing public investment spending is superior to increasing consumption taxes unless investment generates high rates of return.

Population Aging is Accelerating Age mix varies by region. In the more developed countries of the world, the number of old people will steadily increase, and the number of children will decline (Exhibit 4). By 2015, old people will outnumber children; this has already occurred in several countries, including Japan and Germany. By 2010, the working-age population will begin shrinking; by 2035, total population will begin shrinking.

Workforce growth will slow almost everywhere and, in some places, will shrink.

According to the American Academy of Orthopedic Surgeons, the number of first-time total knee replacements is predicted to increase by 673 percent to 3.48 million procedures by 2030, while primary total hip replacements will jump 174 percent. What’s more, the number of knee revisions will leap 522 percent and hip revisions another 237 percent as patients who receive the joints earlier and live longer experience artificial joint failure. Joint replacement surgeries can cost $30,000

Fertility Is Declining

Longevity Is Increasing Longevity has increased significantly almost everywhere in the world, with especially dramatic gains in developing regions (Exhibit 2). Life expectancy worldwide increased from 46 years in 1955 to 66 in 2005, with an increase to75 projected for 2050. Since 1950, developing countries have enjoyed a 23 year gain in life expectancy, from 41 to 64, with continued gains to 74 projected for 2050.

The projected rise in age-related government spending as a share of GDP in Ireland over the next forty years is among the highest in the euro area. In the absence of reforms, public debt will increase to unsustainable levels. This paper uses the IMF's Global Fiscal Model to compare the macroeconomic effects of different fiscal strategies to accommodate the rise in age-related spending. The simulations suggest that adopting a package of measures, including an increase in the retirement age, broadening the tax base, and raising indirect taxes, would be a more growth-friendly strategy than relying exclusively on raising the social security contribution rate.

The Alliance was founded in 1986 by a bipartisan group of legislators led by Senator Alan Cranston.

A Capitol Hill Symposium & Luncheon September 12, 2006 Hart Senate Office Building, #902 At this international gathering organized by the Alliance for Aging Research, prominent scientists called for governments and health care organizations worldwide to invest in the extension of healthy human life in order to produce a "Longevity Dividend" for nations with aging populations.

Read the statement released by the group of more than 90 scientists.

III. International Perspectives Alex Kalache, Director, Ageing and Health Program, World Health Organization (WHO) - SLIDES James Goodwin, PhD, Head of Research, Help the Aged, London, England - SLIDES

Going for the Longevity Dividend September 12th, 2006, Washington, D.C.

Will Science Cure Aging? April 12th, 2007, San Francisco, CA

Aged to Perfection: A Benefit for the Alliance for Aging Research May 1st, 2008, San Francisco, CA

MSc in Economics and Finance of Aging