New Zealand's demographic outlook—a likely doubling in the proportion of elderly people by 2050—is similar to that of many countries. Moreover, health care studies in other countries have reached similar conclusions about past and future expenditure growth (Newhouse, 1993; Cutler and Sheiner, 1998; Jacobzone, Cambois, and Robine, 2000). Internationally, aging is likely to exert the same consistent, but manageable, pressure on health expenditure. Thus, if health expenditures reach unsustainable levels in coming decades, it will not be because of population aging.