Meteorite Crashes In Russia, Panic Spreads (Updating) - 5 views
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Joris _ on 15 Feb 13Latest update: the European Space Agency says their experts "confirm there is no link between the meteor incidents in Russia and asteroid 2012DA14 flyby tonight". How did they find this? As they did not see this one coming, how could they come to that conclusion that early!
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johannessimon81 on 15 Feb 13As you can see from the videos of this meteorite it is coming in from an east to south-east direction (i.e. the direction of the sunrise, more or less). 2012DA14 is coming from due south as you can see here: http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2013/02/how-to-watch-asteroid-2012-da14/ So the two objects seem to be coming from different directions - at least that would be my explanation.
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Joris _ on 15 Feb 13My point is, that if you want to come to such a conclusion (that it is not rubble) you need to be able to construct back the orbits of both objects. 2012DA14 has been observed for one year only, but it is well enough. When the meteor has been observed for the first time, such that we knew its orbit? has it been observed before? if yes, why the impact has not been predicted?
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johannessimon81 on 15 Feb 13If you can show that they come from different directions you know that they are not associated, even if you don't reconstruct their orbits.
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Joris _ on 15 Feb 13I don't think so. If both objects were part of the same, they would be on different but intersecting orbits anyway, hence different directions. Anyway, I am not knowledgeable in atmospheric entry ... But, with so few information about the object, I am surprised they are 100% certain it is not related to DA14. I think science requires more cautions ... With only the direction they are 100% sure, while the probability of such event is itself extremely small, I am amazed... They can't even predict with 100% certainty where a space debris will fall... plus, nobody consider the object being part of a bigger one that broke up during early entry (which has not been observed) ... so many uncertainties and possible hypothesis... and i am not the only one :) http://www.infowars.com/russian-meteor-linked-to-da14-asteroid/
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LeopoldS on 17 Feb 13was not that evident to me also but apparently with the right understanding it was quite clear; was amazed also how quickly NASA has published the likely trajectory of the russian object - have a look at it: quite evident that these are not coming from the same body
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Joris _ on 17 Feb 13yes, now i get my 100% certainty with the reconstructed orbits nothing else (http://wiki.nasa.gov/cm/blog/Watch%20the%20Skies/posts/post_1361037562855.html) ... I still think that esa anouncemement was highly premature but with a high probability of being right...
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Ma Ru on 26 Feb 13Some more results on the topic (link to an arxiv article inside): http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-21579422