A: That’s true. Or that’s a prediction that I believe will be proven true, I should say. Here’s the explanation.
The standard theory on making insurance markets is that you want its competition to be continuous. The way to do that is to see that the risk pool of covered lives is a large, stable and ideally relatively health population. I cannot think of a larger, more stable and relatively healthy population, in proportion to the rest of the exchange population, than the Medicaid expansion population. They are systemically younger than the rest of the population. That’s one of the reasons that they're poorer.
Our program design is also going to pull out the highest-risk people from the private option and treat them in the traditional Medicaid program because we would have had to supplement for many of their services. (Editor's note: Federal law requires Medicaid premium assistance to 'wraparound' to make sure recipients get the same amount of coverage through private insurance as they would in Medicaid). That’s very hard to do. It’s both care and administratively burdensome. Those individuals, the highest five to 10 percent costly individuals, would be better served in a single program, and by definition that would have to be the traditional Medicaid program.
