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Decadal climate variability in the southern Indian Ocean could be predicted up to 10 years ahead, according to a study led by Dr. MORIOKA at Application Laboratory, the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC: ASAHIKO Taira, President) and his colleagues. To investigate the predictability, the scientists have used sea surface temperature (SST) observation data during 1982 to 2015 to initialize a state-of-the-art coupled general circulation model, the Scale Interaction Experiment Frontier Research Center 2 for Global Change (SINTEX-F2*) with a simple SST-nudging scheme. Their decadal reforecast experiments demonstrated moderately high prediction skills of yearly mean SST in the southwest Indian Ocean at 10-year lead time.

In recent years, enormous socioeconomic damage has been wreaked by recurrent abnormal weather events around the world. The seedbed for this abnormal weather is climate variability events on a massive spatiotemporal scale - those that cover thousands of kilometers and continue over months and years. Here we will review an article featured on the cover of the November 28, 2013 issue of Nature Geoscience on research predicting how a climate variability event in the tropical Indian Ocean, known as the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), will change with global warming in the future.

◆ Observational data analysis indicates that cold water brought up by coastal upwelling south of Java can trigger the onset of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). ◆ A method to accurately determine coastal upwelling signal based on satellite chlorophyll-a data was developed and used for analysis in areas with limited observations. ◆ As IOD affects the global climate, including summer weather in Japan, the findings of this study are expected to help improve the predictability of both the global climate and IOD.