What is the best strategy to bet on sports? - 4 views

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  #1 supachef on 01 Apr 23

   

  I dont know if you would call this a strategy but maybe a a methodology. To win at sportsbetting you have to get value, in this case value means you are getting either a better price then the actual one or a better pointspread then the actual one.What i mean is you must have an informed opinion and create a line or spread on the game. Looking at a game and saying well the rams should beat the cards today, is the surest way to going broke in sports betting. You need to examine the game and say I feel/think the rams are 17 points better then the rams today.If the spread is under 14 , I would play ,higher pass ,and if the line was under 10 i would recheck my work because i missed something or am completely wrong. BTW that is from an actual decision i made this weekend. Now to develop your line requires either a statistical model, or if you are not a quant good old fashioned studying and analyzing games for a while before serious money is wagered. I find that lines are often wrong after an unusuall occurrence in a previous game, in american football anyway. This sundays Redskin/Colts game is a perfect example if the game had been played on week 1 i think the line would have been somewhere in the range of pick to redskins minus 3 but because the redskins crushed the cards and the colts played poorly it was much higher. I almost got sucked in , but i looked at the game a little closer and made 2 conclusions 1 the redskins beat maybe the worst team in the nfl and 2 Andrew Luck was making his first start off an injury in game 1 , so expect the redskins to regress a little and if luck improves a little, which is entirely possible the game becomes a very difficult event to predict. I passed, i could have played the colts or if i just used the previous weeks performance as an indicator i would have bet redskins. Two other tips never listen to the talking heads on tv about selections, they are entertainers first and not professional gamblers, they do sometimes offer some helpful insights but in general most of it is entertainment.There are two guys whose opinion i respect, barkley on basketball and golic on football, and if you want to get a much better understanding of football listening to Brain Baldinger is excellent.Second as bad as a team looks one week they can look better the following and vice versa, I think Sal Pal of ESPN oversimplifies it but football is about matchups, sometimes i say to myself why did the coach do that in that spot, sometimes because it was the only thing he could given the personnel match up, and sometimes its because he wanted to be clever( seahawks/pats superbowl). Or he has an agenda ( like somehow improving the results of having matt ryan and julio jones in the redzone). Football coaches are smart but like people they make mistakes because of personality traits or the coach on the other side.Sorry i ramble hope this was enough to get you started, good luck you will want it at times.

   

  <div class="cArrow"> </div><div class="cContentInner">I dont know if you would call this a strategy but maybe a a methodology. To win at sportsbetting you have to get value, in this case value means you are getting either a better price then the actual one or a better pointspread then the actual one.What i mean is you must have an informed opinion and create a line or spread on the game. Looking at a game and saying well the rams should beat the cards today, is the surest way to going broke in sports betting. You need to examine the game and say I feel/think the rams are 17 points better then the rams today.If the spread is under 14 , I would play ,higher pass ,and if the line was under 10 i would recheck my work because i missed something or am completely wrong. BTW that is from an actual decision i made this weekend. Now to develop your line requires either a statistical model, or if you are not a quant good old fashioned studying and analyzing games for a while before serious money is wagered. I find that lines are often wrong after an unusuall occurrence in a previous game, in american football anyway. This sundays Redskin/Colts game is a perfect example if the game had been played on week 1 i think the line would have been somewhere in the range of pick to redskins minus 3 but because the redskins crushed the cards and the colts played poorly it was much higher. I almost got sucked in , but i looked at the game a little closer and made 2 conclusions 1 the redskins beat maybe the worst team in the nfl and 2 Andrew Luck was making his first start off an injury in game 1 , so expect the redskins to regress a little and if luck improves a little, which is entirely possible the game becomes a very difficult event to predict. I passed, i could have played the colts or if i just used the previous weeks performance as an indicator i would have bet redskins. Two other tips never listen to the talking heads on tv about selections, they are entertainers first and not professional gamblers, they do sometimes offer some helpful insights but in general most of it is entertainment.There are two guys whose opinion i respect, barkley on basketball and golic on football, and if you want to get a much better understanding of football listening to Brain Baldinger is excellent.Second as bad as a team looks one week they can look better the following and vice versa, I think Sal Pal of ESPN oversimplifies it but football is about matchups, sometimes i say to myself why did the coach do that in that spot, sometimes because it was the only thing he could given the personnel match up, and sometimes its because he wanted to be clever( seahawks/pats superbowl). Or he has an agenda ( like somehow improving the results of having matt ryan and julio jones in the redzone). Football coaches are smart but like people they make mistakes because of personality traits or the coach on the other side.Sorry i ramble hope this was enough to get you started, good luck you will want it at times.</div>

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  #2 garryolbrait on 01 Apr 23

   

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