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STEERED BY SEVERAL factors, including the strong performance by several hotel brands, the Baird/STR Hotel Stock Index increased 1.4 percent in April to a level of 5,430, STR said in a statement. Growth is slowing, STR said, but will continue for the next quarter or more. "Hotel stocks increased in April, and the gains were driven by outperformance from the global hotel brands," said Michael Bellisario, senior hotel research analyst and director at Baird. "RevPAR trends have remained solid in the face of growing macroeconomic uncertainties and continued banking turmoil, and first-quarter earnings generally have surprised to the upside with positive full-year estimate revisions occurring. The Hotel REITs declined more than 2 percent in April and underperformed the RMZ, while the global hotel brands gained just over 2.5 percent and outperformed the S&P 500's return by 100 bps." According to STR, the Baird/STR Hotel Stock Index fell slightly behind the S&P 500, which was up 1.5 percent in April but came in above the MSCI US REIT Index, up 0.7 percent. The hotel brand sub-index jumped 2.5 percent from March to 10,178, while the hotel REIT sub-index dropped 2.6 percent to 1,045, it added. "The industry continues to revert to normal patterns and calendar shifts with growth slowing as forecasted," said Amanda Hite, STR president. "Monthly demand fell year over year for the first time since the recovery began in April 2021, but that decrease can be attributed to an extra Sunday on the calendar this year versus last. Without the extra Sunday, which is historically a low-performance night, demand would have been slightly up from last year. ADR, on the other hand, grew 3.4 percent, while RevPAR was up 1.8 percent - the lowest increase of the recovery thus far. Despite slowing growth, we expect the industry to see further gains throughout the summer and fall."

INFLUENCED BY EASTER and Passover calendar shift, U.S. hotel performance registered lower year-over-year comparisons from the previous week, according to STR's latest data through 8 April. Occupancy was 61.3 percent for the week ending April 8, down from 66.2 percent the week before, and dipped 7.4 percent than the comparable week in 2022. ADR stood at $153.30, down from $158.40 the week before, and rose 0.8 percent compared to 2022. RevPAR was $94, down from $104.78 in the last week and slipped 6.7 percent over the same month in 2022. Among the Top 25 Markets, New York City saw the highest year-over-year increases in occupancy, up 6.3 percent to 82.2 percent and RevPAR rose 19.4 percent to $232.80 over 2022.

U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE exhibited mostly positive year-over-year trends in the first week of March, compared to the previous week, according to CoStar. Despite a slight increase in occupancy, RevPAR declined, while RevPAR remained static. Occupancy rose to 62.5 percent for the week ending March 2, up from the previous week's 62 percent, marking a 0.3 percent year-over-year decline. ADR decreased to $155.29 from $156.62 the prior week, reflecting a 2.7 percent increase compared to the previous year. RevPAR remained unchanged at $97.12 from the prior week's $97.12, indicating a 2.4 percent increase compared to the same period in 2023. Among the top 25 markets, Seattle reported the largest year-over-year occupancy increase, rising 12.1 percent to reach 66.5 percent.

A SLIGHT DROP was witnessed in U.S. hotel performance in the first week of April from the week before due to a continuing slump in Spring Break travel, according to STR. Little movement was seen in the top 25 markets as well. Occupancy was 64.1 percent for the week ending April 2, down from 65.5 percent the week before and down 6.4 percent for the same period in 2019. ADR was $145.74 for the week, dropped from $149.38 the week before and increased 11.7 percent from two years ago. RevPAR was $93.48 for the week, dipped from $97.92 the week before and up 4.5 percent from the same period in 2019.

THE OMICRON VARIANT has not good for the hospitality industry, but it hasn't been as bad as expected, which is a good sign for the future, according to HotStats. GOPPAR for November was up from the same time last year, but still down from 2019. GOPPAR for November was $55.68, down 29.4 percent from November 2019. It's also down from $68.97 In October, but according to HotStats that is not unusual for this time of year. "A typical spike in profit in October, normally gives way to a drop off in November," HotStats said. "ADR in the month was $7 higher than at the same time in 2019 after being well down in 2020. This helped drive both RevPAR and TRevPAR, which were both up triple digits over 2020, though still down considerably versus 2019." The appearance and rapid spread of Omicron, which originated in South Africa and by December was the dominant strain in the U.S., was a "noisy" intrusion, HotStats said, coming as it did while the country was still dealing with a spike from the Delta variant. However, it could turn out to "be more insipid than insidious."

U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE dropped in the first week of November compared to the week before as expected due to the Halloween calendar shift, according to STR. Performance also weakened when compared to 2019. Occupancy was 62.4 for the week ending Nov. 5, down from 65.8 percent the week before and dropped 9.2 percent from 2019. ADR was $147.48 during the week, decreased from $152.94 the week before and up 11.4 percent from three years ago. RevPAR reached $91.99 during the first week of November, down from $100.59 the week before and a slight increase of 1.1 percent from 2019. None of STR's top 25 markets showed an occupancy increase over 2019 during the week after Halloween. Tampa came closest to its pre-pandemic comparable, with an increase of 1 percent to 72.4 percent.

OCCUPANCY FOR U.S. hotels is now expected to finish the year a little down from the previous forecast by STR and Tourism Economics. However, projections for ADR and RevPAR recovery remain on track in the data firms' final forecast of the year. RevPAR is still expected to fully recover this year on a nominal basis, but not until 2025 when adjusted for inflation, according to the new forecast. The updated forecast lowered occupancy by less than a percentage point for 2022, standing now at 62.7 percent compared to the previously forecasted 63 percent released in August. "As expected, group business travel has been much more aligned with pre-pandemic patterns, specifically in October when group demand hit a pandemic-era high," said Amanda Hite, STR president. "Leisure travel has maintained its strength since our previous forecast update, and we expect these strong demand trends in both group and leisure to continue through the fourth quarter. Bottom-line performance has also persisted, with our most recent data showing strong profit margins due to lower employment levels and reduced services. The challenges around labor continue to be a concern, as high levels of hospitality unemployment and more spending on contract labor are pushing labor costs on a per-available-room basis above 2019 levels. We continue to take inflation and the likely recession into consideration, but the hotel industry has continued to show resilience through these tougher times, thus the steadiness of our updated forecast."

U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE showed mixed results from the previous week, according to STR's latest data through the end of April. However, it remained up year over year. According to STR, occupancy stood at 66.6 percent for the week ending April 29, down from 67.2 percent the week before and increased 0.1 percent over the comparable week in 2022. ADR came in at $156.14, up from $155.76 the week before, and rose 5.5 percent from 2022. RevPAR was $104.01 in the last week, down from $104.64 the week before and increased 5.6 percent against the same period in 2022. Among the Top 25 Markets, Boston registered the highest year-over-year increase in occupancy in the fourth week of the month, up 15.3 percent to 75.6 per cent. Meanwhile, New York City (87.8 percent), Las Vegas (81.5 percent), and San Francisco (81.1 percent) were the only three markets to post occupancy above 80 percent.

U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE dipped in the first week of July when compared to the week before mainly due to decline in demand on account of the Independence Day holiday, according to STR. STR predicted that occupancy and demand are likely to fall again for a week before strengthening in the remaining weeks of July. Occupancy in the week before the holiday fell by more than four percentage points with most of the losses beginning on Wednesday and continuing into the weekend. Since 2000, the fourth of July holiday has fallen on a Monday seven times, including in 2021 and in 2016. Occupancy was 67.3 percent for the week ending July 2, down from 72.3 percent the week before and dropped 2.9 percent from 2019. ADR was $153.32 for the week, declined from $157.05 the week before and increased 19.7 percent from three years ago. RevPAR reached $103.24 during the week down from $113.55 the week before and up 23.1 percent from 2019.

A STRONGER THAN expected performance by U.S. hotels in the fourth quarter of 2021 led CBRE Hotels Research to upgrade its forecast for the rest of 2022. CBRE now forecasts RevPAR will reach 2019 nominal levels by the third quarter of this year, one year earlier than the previous forecast. Occupancy is expected to rise 6.7 percent to 61.3 percent this year, then rise 5.2 percent to 64.4 percent in 2023. ADR is forecast to rise 10.1 percent to $133.94 in 2022 and go up 6 percent more to $141.99 in 2023. CBRE expects RevPAR to rise 17.5 percent in 2022 overall to $82.04 and then rise 11.5 percent to $91.46 in 2023. Positive trends, such as high employment and the return to the office for many workers who had been working from home contributed to the revised forecast, CBRE said. Other factors contributing to the improvement include below-average supply growth, strong domestic leisure trends, the resumption of inbound international travel and a predicted return to office later this year. However, ongoing inflation and geopolitical tensions connected to the war in Ukraine still threaten progress.

THE U.S. HOTEL industry will be well on the way to recovery in 2022, according to consulting firm HVS Americas. However, a full recovery in real terms, after adjusting for inflation, remains a few years away, it added. With more assets, both distressed and well performing, expected to come to market this year, 2022 will be an exciting year for the industry, said Rod Clough, president of HVS, in an article titled 'ALIS 2022 Takeaways - Our Industry Braces for a Big Year Ahead'. A near full recovery in RevPAR at $85 for U.S. hotels is likely to happen by the end of 2022 when compared to $86 in 2018-19. "The higher inflationary environment will continue to bode well for hotels, resulting in ADR pricing power leading to a lift in revenue on top of still lean operational models. Group travel is still lagging the recovery, but near-term, smaller-group bookings (at newly raised room rates) should help bridge the gap while the industry waits for larger meetings to return," Clough wrote in the article. "Rising development costs due to supply-chain disruptions, labor shortages, and overall inflation are leading to a general contraction in new hotel openings. Moreover, development challenges are intensifying for major CBDs, attributed to slow office re-openings, a lag in larger convention bookings, higher operating/labor costs, and even higher construction costs than your average project."

U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE decreased in the third week of December compared to the week before, according to STR. However, performance metrics improved when compared to 2019 in part because of a favorable calendar shift. According to STR, the corresponding week in 2019 ended on 21 December, which brought performance down lower for that period. Occupancy was 54.5 percent for the week ending Dec. 17, down from 59.6 percent the week before and an increase of 9.2 percent from 2019. ADR was $135.08 during the week, dropped from $144.79 the week before and up 23.7 percent from three years ago. RevPAR reached $73.65 during the week, down from $86.29 the week before and up 35.1 percent from 2019.

U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE improved in the final week of 2022 compared to the week before due to favorable side of a holiday calendar shift, according to STR. When compared to the same period in 2019 performance also increased in the last week of December. According to STR, the comparable week in 2019 covered Dec. 29 to Jan. 4. Occupancy was 54.2 percent for the week ending Dec. 31, up from 43.9 percent the week before and increased 10.4 percent from 2019. ADR was $167.21 during the week, a steep increase from $132.29 the week before and up 21.7 percent from three years ago. RevPAR reached $90.63 in the final week of December, rose from $58.04 the week before and up 34.3 percent from 2019.

U.S. EXTENDED-STAY hotels experienced their first quarterly decline in RevPAR since the first quarter of 2021, according to The Highland Group. In the first quarter, the segment saw a 1.6 percent drop in RevPAR, despite a 1.5 percent increase in revenues. Demand increased by 1.7 percent, contrasting with a 2.8 percent fall in total hotel demand when excluding upper upscale and luxury segments. STR/CoStar estimated that overall hotel RevPAR, excluding upper upscale and luxury segments, which have minimal extended-stay room supply, increased by 1.3 percent in the first quarter of 2024 compared to the same period in 2023. The Highland Group's 2024 First Quarter U.S. Extended-Stay Hotels report indicated that overall hotel RevPAR and room revenues declined by 1.1 percent and 0.9 percent year-to-date, respectively, excluding upper upscale and luxury segments.

U.S. HOTELS ARE likely to report improved RevPAR growth in the second half of the year, following a weak first quarter, according to CBRE. International tourism and other economic factors are expected to provide a boost to performance. A 2 percent increase in RevPAR growth is forecasted for 2024, down from the 3 percent estimated in February. RevPAR is now expected to grow by 3 percent for the remainder of the year, driven by international tourists, holiday travel, and limited supply growth. It is projecting GDP growth of 2.3 percent and average inflation of 3.2 percent in 2024. The performance of the lodging industry is closely tied to the strength of the economy, as there is typically a strong correlation between GDP and RevPAR growth, CBRE said in a statement.