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HOTEL STOCK PRICE volatility dragged the Baird/STR Hotel Stock Index in November. Both the hotel brands and hotel REITs significantly underperformed their respective benchmarks during the month. The Baird/STR index fell 7.6 percent during the month from October. However, it was up 11.5 percent year to date through the first 11 months of 2021. The index rose 6.8 percent during October compared to September. The index was behind both the S&P 500, which fell 0.8 percent in November, and the MSCI US REIT Index, which dropped 0.9 percent. The hotel brand sub-index dropped 7.2 percent from October while the hotel REIT sub-index slipped 8.9 percent. "Hotel stock price volatility continued in November with both the Hotel brands and Hotel REITs significantly underperforming their respective benchmarks," said Michael Bellisario, senior hotel research analyst and director at Baird. "Two different investment narratives drove stock price performance during the month: In early November, third quarter earnings were better than expected, reopening optimism continued to gain momentum, and the hotel brands were hitting new all-time highs; but, by the end of the month, broader growth and inflation concerns surfaced, the Omicron variant spooked investors and impacted all travel-related stocks, and the hotel REITs were hitting new year-to-date lows."

A new Hilton Garden Inn is now open in the SilverLake Crossings project in Grapevine, Texas. It is owned by NewcrestImage led by Mehul Patel, chairman and CEO and is the company's third tri-branded hotel. The 152-room hotel is adjacent to one of the company's dual-brand properties that includes a 181-room Courtyard by Marriott and a 120-suite TowneSuites by Marriott that opened in December 2013. The Hilton Garden Inn is two miles from Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport. SilverLake Crossings is a 52-acre multi-use community and the entire "hotel campus" offers 453 rooms, two lobby bars, multiple dining options, and more than 20,000 square feet of meeting space at the nearby SilverLake 2200 Conference Center.

THE UPWARD MOVEMENT of ADR for U.S. hotels lifted the forecast for the market by STR and Tourism Economics. The travel research firms released the new forecast during the opening sessions of the Americas Lodging Investment Summit in Los Angeles on Monday. The recovery timeline laid out in the new forecast remains mostly the same as the previous forecast released in November, with ADR will near full recovery this year. RevPAR is anticipated to exceed 2019 levels in 2023, but when adjusted for inflation ADR and RevPAR are not projected to reach full recovery until after 2025. Occupancy is projected to surpass 2019 levels in 2023. "The industry recaptured 83 percent of pre-pandemic RevPAR levels in 2021, and momentum is expected to pick up after a slow start to this year," said Carter Wilson, STR's senior vice president of consulting. "With so much of that RevPAR recovery being led by leisure-driven ADR, however, it is important to keep an eye on the real versus the nominal. Terms of recovery are not playing out evenly across the board, and many hoteliers have had to raise rates to minimize the bottom-line hit from labor and supply shortages. We are anticipating inflation to remain higher throughout the first half of the year with a gradual leveling off during the third and fourth quarters. If that happens, and we avoid major setbacks with the pandemic, this year will certainly be one to watch with demand and occupancy also shaping up to hit significant levels during the second half."

THE RECOVERY MAY be under way, but most of the top U.S. markets, 21 out of 25, remain at a recession or depression level, according to a report from the American Hotel & Lodging Association. Urban markets are in worst shape, with most still in a "depression cycle." The overall U.S. hotel industry remains in a "recession," according to AHLA's report citing STR data. The difficulty for urban markets is that they depend substantially on business from events and group meetings. Room revenue was down 52 percent in May compared to May 2019. New York City, for example, is still in a depression with nearly 200 hotels in the city closed due to the pandemic, taking with them 42,030 rooms, one-third of the city's supplies. Leisure travel is currently driving the recovery, but business and group travel, the industry's largest source of revenue, will take longer to recover. Current forecasts show that segment returning to 2019 levels in 2023 or 2024. Several major events, conventions and business meetings have already been canceled or postponed until at least 2022.

U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE increased in the second week of December, according to STR. ADR was up during the week when compared to same period in 2019. Occupancy was 57.4 percent for the week ending Dec. 11, up from 54.8 percent the week before and down by 4.8 percent for the same period in 2019. ADR for the week was $128.35, up from $127.92 the week before and increased 2.3 percent when compared to two years ago. RevPAR increased to $73.73 during the week from $70.08 for the week before but dropped 2.7 percent for the same period in 2019. Among the Top 25 Markets, Norfolk/Virginia Beach saw the only occupancy increase among STR's top 25 markets during the week, up 4.2 percent to 55.2 percent over 2019. New York City reported the highest weekly occupancy level of any STR-defined U.S. market at 81.5 percent. However, its occupancy level was 13 percent lower than two years ago. Miami registered the largest ADR increase during the period, up 30.1 percent to $229.34, when compared to 2019.

U.S. HOTEL OCCUPANCY has reached an all-time high in the fourth week of December though the numbers came in lower than the previous week, according to STR. Christmas Day occupancy was 47.2 percent, up from the previous high of 47 percent recorded in 2015. Occupancy was 44.3 percent for the week ended Dec. 25, down from 53.8 percent the week before, and down 8.7 percent when compared to 2019. ADR was $129.67 for the week, up from $121.87 the week before and an increase of 0.5 percent from 2019. RevPAR reached $57.46, down from $65.61 the week before, and dropped 8.3 percent from two years ago. According to STR, a steeper decline during the week from 2019 levels was due to the fact that Christmas fell on a Wednesday two years ago and allowed for an earlier return to non-holiday weekend levels that year. "While Omicron-related closures and service disruptions affected performance in New York City, overall U.S. occupancy was less impacted," STR said.

THE BAIRD/STR Hotel Stock Index rose 12.7 percent in December over the previous month. It was up 25.6 percent for 2021 as a whole. The index outperformed both the S&P 500, up 4.4 percent, and the MSCI US REIT Index, which rose 8.2 percent in December. The hotel brand sub-index increased 13.2 percent from November while the Hotel REIT sub-index rose 10.9 percent. Investment was bolstered by some, if not good, then less bad than expected news regarding the COVID-19 pandemic, said Michael Bellisario, senior hotel research analyst and director at Baird. "Hotel stocks ended a volatile year with strong gains in December as the worst-case scenarios related to the Omicron variant appeared unlikely to unfold as initially feared," Bellisario said. "With the big rebound into year-end, the hotel brands ended up slightly outperforming the S&P 500 in 2021, while the hotel REITs - despite gaining 12 percent on the year - significantly lagged the RMZ's best-ever annual performance. Turning the calendar to 2022, leisure travel strength is expected to persist, but the wildcard for the overall industry's continued recovery remains a more substantialreturn of the business traveler."

U.S. HOTELS HIT a new Thanksgiving holiday performance record in the fourth week of November, according to STR. All performance metrics were up during the week when compared to same period in 2019. Occupancy was 53 percent for the week ending Nov. 27, down from 59.7 percent for the week before and an increase of 4.6 percent from the same Thanksgiving period two years ago. ADR for the week was $128.41, up from $126.66 the week before and increased 14.3 percent when compared to two years ago. RevPAR decreased to $68 for the week from $75.60 the week before but increased 19.6 percent for the same period in 2019. Among STR's top 25 markets, Dallas saw the largest occupancy increase during the fourth week, up 12.2 percent to 54.8 percent, over the same period two years ago. Phoenix reported the largest ADR increase when compared to 2019, up 35.1 percent to $143.30. Oahu Island experienced the steepest occupancy decline, down 25.3 percent to 58.5 percent over 2019.

THE BAIRD/STR HOTEL Stock Index dropped in June for the second consecutive month. The index dropped for the first time, after rising continuously for five months, in May. Baird/STR recorded a sharp fall of 19.3 percent in June, according to STR. The index dropped 5.8 percent in May. It went up 0.7 percent during April. It increased 2.2 percent in March after rising 4.1 percent in February. The index decreased 21.6 percent during the first six months of 2022. The Baird/STR Index fell behind both the S&P 500, dropped 8.4 percent from May and the MSCI US REIT Index, down 7.9 percent respectively during June. The hotel brand sub-index fell 19.3 percent from May, while the Hotel REIT sub-index dipped 19.5 percent during the month. "Hotel stocks continued on their downward trajectory in June and were significant relative under-performers as investors began to factor in an increasing likelihood of an impending recession," said Michael Bellisario, senior hotel research analyst and director at Baird. "While the upcoming summer travel months are expected to be strong, investors are looking beyond the near-term fundamental strength to a period when demand and ADR growth are likely to moderate, which is supported by the many macroeconomic indicators that are flashing signs of broader slowing."

THE BAIRD/STR HOTEL Stock Index rose again in April, continuing a trend the index has followed for the past four months. Investors' optimism is driven by the travel industry's ongoing recovery due to pent-up demand that is overriding negative influences, such as the Russia/Ukraine war and rising interest rates. Baird/STR went up 0.7 percent during the month, according to STR. The index rose 3.1 percent over the first four months of 2022. In March it increased 2.2 percent in March after rising 4.1 percent in February. The index also surpassed both the S&P 500, which dropped 8.8 percent in April, and the MSCI US REIT Index, which went down 4.6 percent. The hotel brand sub-index rose 0.5 percent from March, while the hotel REIT sub-index jumped up 1.5 percent.

MOST ECONOMY AND MID-PRICE extended-stay hotels' performance in September was down compared to August, according to a report from hotel investment advisors The Highland Group. However, the bottom-up recovery and room supply distribution geographically are hindering the upscale segment's recovery. Relative to other classes of hotels, mid-price extended-stay hotels recorded the largest gain in September, the U.S. Extended-Stay Hotels Bulletin: September 2021 report said. Occupancy, ADR and RevPAR indices for upscale extended-stay hotels were about the same in September as in August but the decline in absolute ADR resulted in the segment's revenue recovery falling below 95 percent. Economy and mid-price segments both reported about a three-point gain in ADR recovery index in September compared to the month before. The upscale segment's ADR remained unchanged, the report said. "The mid-price extended-stay segment's gains in both ADR and occupancy pushed it slightly ahead of the upscale segment in terms of RevPAR growth. Because the overall hotel industry lost far more RevPAR than extended-stay hotels, its RevPAR growth in September 2021 compared to last year was 85 percent more than extended-stay hotels," the report added.

U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE was up in the fourth week of January compared to the week before, according to STR. Occupancy was 56.3 percent for the week ending Jan. 28, up from 54.2 percent the week before and decreased 0.3 percent from 2019. ADR was $142.66 during the week, up from $140.16 the week before and up 13.4 percent from three years ago. RevPAR reached $80.32 in the fourth week, increased from $75.97 the week before and up 13 percent from January 2019. Among STR's top 25 markets, Dallas reported the highest occupancy increase, up 10.3 percent to 69.8 percent, over 2019.