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U.S. TRAVELERS SAID that gas prices and inflation will impact their summer travel decisions more than COVID-19 concerns, according to a survey commissioned by the American Hotel & Lodging Association. The survey, conducted by Morning Consult and released just ahead of the Memorial Day holiday weekend ending May 30, revealed that more than half of the respondents, 57 percent, are likely to take fewer leisure trips and 54 percent will take shorter trips due to current gas prices. The majority of people surveyed, 82 percent, said that gas prices will have at least some impact on their travel destinations.

THE UPWARD MOVEMENT of ADR for U.S. hotels lifted the forecast for the market by STR and Tourism Economics. The travel research firms released the new forecast during the opening sessions of the Americas Lodging Investment Summit in Los Angeles on Monday. The recovery timeline laid out in the new forecast remains mostly the same as the previous forecast released in November, with ADR will near full recovery this year. RevPAR is anticipated to exceed 2019 levels in 2023, but when adjusted for inflation ADR and RevPAR are not projected to reach full recovery until after 2025. Occupancy is projected to surpass 2019 levels in 2023. "The industry recaptured 83 percent of pre-pandemic RevPAR levels in 2021, and momentum is expected to pick up after a slow start to this year," said Carter Wilson, STR's senior vice president of consulting. "With so much of that RevPAR recovery being led by leisure-driven ADR, however, it is important to keep an eye on the real versus the nominal. Terms of recovery are not playing out evenly across the board, and many hoteliers have had to raise rates to minimize the bottom-line hit from labor and supply shortages. We are anticipating inflation to remain higher throughout the first half of the year with a gradual leveling off during the third and fourth quarters. If that happens, and we avoid major setbacks with the pandemic, this year will certainly be one to watch with demand and occupancy also shaping up to hit significant levels during the second half."

HOTEL STOCK PRICE volatility dragged the Baird/STR Hotel Stock Index in November. Both the hotel brands and hotel REITs significantly underperformed their respective benchmarks during the month. The Baird/STR index fell 7.6 percent during the month from October. However, it was up 11.5 percent year to date through the first 11 months of 2021. The index rose 6.8 percent during October compared to September. The index was behind both the S&P 500, which fell 0.8 percent in November, and the MSCI US REIT Index, which dropped 0.9 percent. The hotel brand sub-index dropped 7.2 percent from October while the hotel REIT sub-index slipped 8.9 percent. "Hotel stock price volatility continued in November with both the Hotel brands and Hotel REITs significantly underperforming their respective benchmarks," said Michael Bellisario, senior hotel research analyst and director at Baird. "Two different investment narratives drove stock price performance during the month: In early November, third quarter earnings were better than expected, reopening optimism continued to gain momentum, and the hotel brands were hitting new all-time highs; but, by the end of the month, broader growth and inflation concerns surfaced, the Omicron variant spooked investors and impacted all travel-related stocks, and the hotel REITs were hitting new year-to-date lows."

U.S. EXTENDED-STAY hotels continued to perform well in November with recovery indices up compared to October and 2019, according to a report from The Highland Group. However, the market is showing signs of slowing. All extended-stay segments posted RevPAR gains in November compared to last year, the US Extended-Stay Hotels Bulletin: November 2022 report said. "Monthly gains in ADR and RevPAR have decelerated for most of the year and November increases were the lowest in 2022. Both economy and mid-price segments reported RevPAR increases well below the rate of inflation for the first time in November," the report said. "ADR growth is still high compared to long-term averages but with the economy segment reporting its eighth consecutive monthly decline in demand and mid-price extended-stay hotel demand also declining in November, rate resistance is building especially at lower price points."

THE FIRST TWO months of 2022 saw up and down performance by Baird/STR Hotel Stock Index, according to STR. In January, the index sank, then in February it rose again, regaining lost ground. In January, the index dropped 3.8 percent after rising 12.7 percent in December. The index still outperformed both the S&P 500, which dropped 5.3 percent that month, and the MSCI US REIT Index, which dropped 7 percent. The hotel brand sub-index fell 4.3 percent from December and the hotel REIT sub-index declined 2.2 percent. "Despite the significant stock market volatility to start the year, both the hotel brands and hotel REITs outperformed their respective benchmarks in January, which continued the momentum from the end of 2021," Michael Bellisario, senior hotel research analyst and director at Baird, said at that time. "Positively, Omicron-related concerns are slowly subsiding, and investors are looking forward again. At the same time, leisure demand remains robust, optimism regarding a more normalized travel environment is building, and the broader growth-to-value rotation has benefitted hotel stocks as inflation pressures remain front and center."