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U.S. HOTELS REPORTED higher performance in October compared to September, according to STR. However, performance during the month weakened when compared to 2019. Occupancy of U.S. hotels were 67.2 percent for October, increased from 66.7 percent from the month before and decreased 2.4 percent from 2019. ADR was $155.63 for the month, up from $154.32 in September and up 16.8 percent from three years ago. RevPAR was $104.59 for the month, improved from $103 the month before and up 14 percent over 2019. STR's top 25 markets showed higher occupancy and ADR than all other markets in October mainly due to continued improvement in business travel and groups.

U.S. EXTENDED-STAY HOTELS continued their good performance in all measures of performance in April compared to 2019 and higher than in March, according to hotel investment advisors The Highland Group. Due to seasonal increases in leisure travel, the upscale extended-stay hotels benefited the most from the greatest lift in recovery indices except ADR. Meanwhile, mid-price extended-stay hotels achieved the strongest monthly gains in ADR and room revenues compared to April 2021, the U.S. Extended-Stay Hotels Bulletin: April 2022 report said. Economy extended-stay hotels continued the lead the recovery compared to 2019, but, demand declined 1.4 percent in April this year compared to April 2021, mainly due to strong increases in ADR over several months. "The 1.8 percent increase in extended-stay room supply in April is the first month supply growth reported below 2 percent since 2013 and the seventh consecutive month of 4 percent or lower supply growth. It is likely that the supply increases should be well below pre-pandemic levels during the near term," the report said.

THE RECOVERY MAY be under way, but most of the top U.S. markets, 21 out of 25, remain at a recession or depression level, according to a report from the American Hotel & Lodging Association. Urban markets are in worst shape, with most still in a "depression cycle." The overall U.S. hotel industry remains in a "recession," according to AHLA's report citing STR data. The difficulty for urban markets is that they depend substantially on business from events and group meetings. Room revenue was down 52 percent in May compared to May 2019. New York City, for example, is still in a depression with nearly 200 hotels in the city closed due to the pandemic, taking with them 42,030 rooms, one-third of the city's supplies. Leisure travel is currently driving the recovery, but business and group travel, the industry's largest source of revenue, will take longer to recover. Current forecasts show that segment returning to 2019 levels in 2023 or 2024. Several major events, conventions and business meetings have already been canceled or postponed until at least 2022.

OMICRON, THE LATEST COVID-19 variant of concern, led to new restrictions on some international travel over the Thanksgiving weekend. Members of the travel industry are urging federal officials to be cautious, but not to impose bans that they say will not stop the spread of the new variant. On Nov. 26, the World Health Organization issued new guidance on the Omicron variant, which emerged out of South Africa. Researchers are still investigating the variant's transmissibility, severity and the effectiveness of current vaccines against it. "Preliminary evidence suggests there may be an increased risk of reinfection with Omicron (ie, people who have previously had COVID-19 could become reinfected more easily with Omicron)," the WHO said in its statement. "WHO is working with technical partners to understand the potential impact of this variant on our existing countermeasures, including vaccines. Vaccines remain critical to reducing severe disease and death, including against the dominant circulating variant, Delta. Current vaccines remain effective against severe disease and death."

THE U.S. STATE Department has indefinitely extended a program allowing consular offices to waive in-person interviews for low-risk non-immigrant visa applicants who apply within 48 months of their most recent visa's expiration. Initially scheduled to conclude on Dec. 31, the program will now persist without a specified end date, undergoing regular reviews. This policy applies to consular offices globally. Under the updated program rules, the State Department anticipates the pool of applicants eligible for an interview waiver will at least double, the U.S. Department of State said in a statement. From October 2022 to September 2023, the State Department issued a near-record 10.4 million non-immigrant visas worldwide, partly attributed to interview waiver authority. "Interview waiver authorities have significantly reduced visa appointment wait times at embassies and consulates," the State Department said. "In Fiscal Year 2022, almost half of the nearly seven million non-immigrant visas issued by the Department were processed without an in-person interview. This success in reducing global visa wait times, particularly post-pandemic closures, is ongoing, with continued efforts to swiftly minimize wait times, including for first-time tourist visa applicants."

U.S. HOTELS ADDED 700 jobs to their payrolls in June, according to the latest government data, but the nationwide workforce shortage continues to make it difficult for hotels to fill open positions, according to the American Hotel and Lodging Association. Total hotel employment stands at about 1.92 million, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which is more than 196,000 fewer workers than in February 2020, reflecting a scarcity of available employees. Bureau of Labor Statistics also revised down the total number of hotel jobs in the country, which eliminated job gains for the industry that were reported in prior months, AHLA said in a statement. "Halfway through 2024, the hotel industry is behind where it needs to be when it comes to hiring staff, despite near-record high wages and expanding workplace benefits and flexibility," said Kevin Carey, AHLA's interim president and CEO. "The reason is the nationwide workforce shortage, which is preventing hoteliers from meeting their full potential as demand for travel remains strong. Both Congress and the administration can provide relief to our members, many of whom are small business owners, and AHLA will continue to call for action to expand the pool of available workers."

OCCUPANCY FOR U.S. hotels is now expected to finish the year a little down from the previous forecast by STR and Tourism Economics. However, projections for ADR and RevPAR recovery remain on track in the data firms' final forecast of the year. RevPAR is still expected to fully recover this year on a nominal basis, but not until 2025 when adjusted for inflation, according to the new forecast. The updated forecast lowered occupancy by less than a percentage point for 2022, standing now at 62.7 percent compared to the previously forecasted 63 percent released in August. "As expected, group business travel has been much more aligned with pre-pandemic patterns, specifically in October when group demand hit a pandemic-era high," said Amanda Hite, STR president. "Leisure travel has maintained its strength since our previous forecast update, and we expect these strong demand trends in both group and leisure to continue through the fourth quarter. Bottom-line performance has also persisted, with our most recent data showing strong profit margins due to lower employment levels and reduced services. The challenges around labor continue to be a concern, as high levels of hospitality unemployment and more spending on contract labor are pushing labor costs on a per-available-room basis above 2019 levels. We continue to take inflation and the likely recession into consideration, but the hotel industry has continued to show resilience through these tougher times, thus the steadiness of our updated forecast."

IHG Hotels & Resorts' first-quarter 2024 RevPAR in the Americas declined by 0.3 percent year-over-year. This was driven by a 1.9 percent decrease in U.S. RevPAR, countered by an 11.3 percent increase in Canada, Latin America, and the Caribbean combined. Occupancy dropped to 63.1 percent, down by 1.1 percentage points, while ADR in the Americas rose by 1.5 percent. Meanwhile, IHG's global RevPAR increased by 2.6 percent in the first quarter and the company opened 6,200 rooms (46 hotels) globally, marking an 11.1 percent year-over-year increase after adjusting for Iberostar, IHG said in a statement. "Global RevPAR in the first quarter of 2024 continued to grow, up 2.6 percent, reflecting the strength of our globally diverse footprint," said Elie Maalouf, IHG Hotels & Resorts' CEO. "There was an impressive performance in EMEAA, which was up nearly 9 percent. The Americas, having already recovered very strongly, was broadly flat due to some adverse calendar timing, and Greater China grew by 2.5 percent and will continue to benefit from returning international inbound travel this year. Global occupancy moved up to 62 percent and ADR increased by a further 2 percent as pricing remained robust, reflecting the complete return of leisure, business and group travel."

DRIVEN BY STRONGER-than-expected demand and moderate supply, CBRE has raised its forecast for hotel performance again this year, resulting in increased occupancy. CBRE revised its forecast for 2023 RevPAR to $97.89, up 6 percent year-over-year and an increase of $0.43 rise from the previous forecast. This positive revision is based on a 65-basis-point increase in expected occupancy compared to the previous forecast issued in February, CBRE said in a statement. Furthermore, the ADR is projected to grow by 3.7 percent in 2023, slightly lower than the previous forecast of 4.2 percent. According to CBRE Hotels Research, this is primarily due to slightly lower inflation expectations and a higher proportion of group travel and shoulder-period demand, which typically have lower rates. CBRE's baseline scenario forecast envisages an average GDP growth of 0.8 percent and average inflation of 4.6 percent in 2023. Given the strong correlation between GDP and RevPAR growth, changes in the economic outlook will directly impact the performance of the lodging industry, CBRE noted. "We are already starting to see signs that the easing of travel restrictions in Japan and China, combined with continued improvements in group and independent business demand, are bolstering demand heading into the heavy summer travel season," said Rachael Rothman, head of hotel research & data analytics at CBRE.

THE U.S. HOSPITALITY industry faces an environmental wake-up call as guests seek accommodations that align with their values beyond amenities alone. This trend has fundamentally changed how hotels approach sustainability, with many adopting practices such as reduced water consumption and energy conservation. Large hotel chains like Hilton Hotels & Resorts and Marriott International have openly declared their efforts to minimize environmental impact. However, achieving meaningful sustainability requires franchise owners and operators to be on the same page. "As a global hospitality leader, Hilton is dedicated to providing exceptional guest experiences," said Jean Garris Hand, Hilton's vice president of global ESG. "However, we also recognize our profound responsibility to safeguard the destinations where we operate for future generations of travelers. Our efforts to reduce energy, carbon emissions, water usage, and waste are integral to Travel with Purpose, Hilton's comprehensive environmental, social, and governance strategy aimed at promoting responsible travel worldwide."

A SLIGHT DROP was witnessed in U.S. hotel performance in the first week of April from the week before due to a continuing slump in Spring Break travel, according to STR. Little movement was seen in the top 25 markets as well. Occupancy was 64.1 percent for the week ending April 2, down from 65.5 percent the week before and down 6.4 percent for the same period in 2019. ADR was $145.74 for the week, dropped from $149.38 the week before and increased 11.7 percent from two years ago. RevPAR was $93.48 for the week, dipped from $97.92 the week before and up 4.5 percent from the same period in 2019.

THE UPWARD MOVEMENT of ADR for U.S. hotels lifted the forecast for the market by STR and Tourism Economics. The travel research firms released the new forecast during the opening sessions of the Americas Lodging Investment Summit in Los Angeles on Monday. The recovery timeline laid out in the new forecast remains mostly the same as the previous forecast released in November, with ADR will near full recovery this year. RevPAR is anticipated to exceed 2019 levels in 2023, but when adjusted for inflation ADR and RevPAR are not projected to reach full recovery until after 2025. Occupancy is projected to surpass 2019 levels in 2023. "The industry recaptured 83 percent of pre-pandemic RevPAR levels in 2021, and momentum is expected to pick up after a slow start to this year," said Carter Wilson, STR's senior vice president of consulting. "With so much of that RevPAR recovery being led by leisure-driven ADR, however, it is important to keep an eye on the real versus the nominal. Terms of recovery are not playing out evenly across the board, and many hoteliers have had to raise rates to minimize the bottom-line hit from labor and supply shortages. We are anticipating inflation to remain higher throughout the first half of the year with a gradual leveling off during the third and fourth quarters. If that happens, and we avoid major setbacks with the pandemic, this year will certainly be one to watch with demand and occupancy also shaping up to hit significant levels during the second half."

PROFITS ROSE IN October for U.S. hotels on a month-to-month basis, according to STR. However, the numbers are still down versus 2019, indicating a bump in the road to recovery. GOPPAR for the month was $62.75, according to STR's monthly P&L data release, up from $46.29 in September. TRevPAR for the month was $165.03, compared to $140.94 the month before, and EBITDA PAR was $44.14, up from $30.47 in September. At the same time, labor costs also rose from $47.50 the previous month to $52.17 inOctober. Estimated industrywide gross operating profit was 89 percent of October 2019 levels, after coming in at 97 percent in September. Labor costs reached 91 percent of pre-pandemic comparables in October after reaching a high of 96 percent in September. "October data was important to analyze from multiple angles," said Raquel Ortiz, STR's assistant director of financial performance. "The metrics were up quite a bit from September if you measure by available rooms, but that's to be expected as October is usually a stronger revenue month due to conferences and group travel. When you extrapolate and bring in the comparison to pre-pandemic times, performance was lower. Fortunately, even with less corporate business this year, profit margins (38 percent) still came relatively close to what we saw in 2019 (40.9 percent)."

THE U.S. HOTEL industry will be well on the way to recovery in 2022, according to consulting firm HVS Americas. However, a full recovery in real terms, after adjusting for inflation, remains a few years away, it added. With more assets, both distressed and well performing, expected to come to market this year, 2022 will be an exciting year for the industry, said Rod Clough, president of HVS, in an article titled 'ALIS 2022 Takeaways - Our Industry Braces for a Big Year Ahead'. A near full recovery in RevPAR at $85 for U.S. hotels is likely to happen by the end of 2022 when compared to $86 in 2018-19. "The higher inflationary environment will continue to bode well for hotels, resulting in ADR pricing power leading to a lift in revenue on top of still lean operational models. Group travel is still lagging the recovery, but near-term, smaller-group bookings (at newly raised room rates) should help bridge the gap while the industry waits for larger meetings to return," Clough wrote in the article. "Rising development costs due to supply-chain disruptions, labor shortages, and overall inflation are leading to a general contraction in new hotel openings. Moreover, development challenges are intensifying for major CBDs, attributed to slow office re-openings, a lag in larger convention bookings, higher operating/labor costs, and even higher construction costs than your average project."

SPRING BREAK TRAVEL helped U.S. hotel performance to rise in the third week of March from the week before, according to STR. Occupancy for the week was the highest since the week ending Aug. 7, 2021, and ADR was the second highest on record. Occupancy was 66.9 percent for the week ending March 19, up from 63.2 percent the week before and down 3.7 percent for the same period in 2019. ADR was $151.63 for the week, up from $144.68 the week before and increased 13.6 percent from two years ago. RevPAR was $101.44 for the week, rose from $91.45 the week before and up 9.5 percent from the same period two years ago.

IN THE WAKE of spring break travel, U.S hotel performance continues to register growth in the third week of March compared to the previous week, according to STR's latest data through 18 March. Occupancy stood at 67.6 percent for the week ending March 18, up from 64.7 percent the week before, 1.3 percent more than the comparable week in 2002 and 2.5 percent down the comparable week in 2019. ADR was $167.04, increased from $158.20 the week before and up 8.9 percent and 23.9 percent over the same month in 2022 and 2019, respectively. RevPAR arrived at $112.89 in the third week, up from $102.38 the previous week, and an increase of 10.4 percent and 20.8 percent against the same month in 2022 and 2019. Among the Top 25 Markets, Boston saw the highest year-over-year increase in occupancy, up 17.8 percent to 71.8 percent, while Houston witnessed the highest occupancy increase over 2019, increased 9.6 percent to 72.5 percent. Las Vegas reported the highest ADR, up 77.9 percent to $306.79 and RevPAR increased 101.5 percent to $277.09 year-over-year. Las Vegas market also posted the highest increases in the measuring of ADR (up 113.2 percent to $306.79) and RevPAR (increased 116.9 percent to $277.09 percent), against 2019.

STR AND TOURISM ECONOMICS have increased year-over-year growth projections for ADR and RevPAR in the final revision of the U.S. hotel forecast for 2023. While some factors, such as higher interest rates and more restrictive lending, may impact the economy, their effect on the travel industry is not expected to be strong. In 2023, RevPAR saw a 0.3 percentage point increase, propelled by a 0.6ppt rise in ADR growth, according to STR and TE. Meanwhile, recent RevPAR trends affirm rate as the predominant performance driver. Occupancy was downgraded by 0.2ppts, STR and TE said in a statement. Growth projections for key performance metrics in 2024 remained flat from the previous forecast, reflecting the stabilization of long-term average trends.

EXTENDED-STAY HOTELS experienced limited growth in July, reflecting the summer travel season's tendency to favor the overall hotel industry more than extended-stay establishments, according to The Highland Group. Total hotels reported a smaller decrease in occupancy and a slightly higher increase in ADR compared to all extended-stay hotels in July 2022. According to Highland, Extended-stay hotels performed similarly to the preceding three months in July. The economy segment reported a decrease in RevPAR, while upscale extended-stay hotels saw the strongest RevPAR increase. However, ADR growth across extended-stay segments has noticeably narrowed over the last three months. For the second consecutive month, the economy segment achieved faster ADR gains compared to mid-price extended-stay hotels. "Extended-stay hotels' 9.2 percentage-point occupancy premium above the overall hotel industry is slightly below the long-term annual average range but typical for the summer travel season," said Mark Skinner, partner at The Highland Group.

THE MAJOR CHALLENGES faced by U.S. hotels are labor, the return of corporate, group and conference travel, the impact of inflation on cost lines and the energy crisis, said Michael Grove, COO of HotStats, in a recent presentation. In the same session at the International Hospitality Investment Forum, panelists debated the best metric by which to measure industry performance. While speaking during a panel session at IHIF titled "Decoding the Data", Grove said that the most pressing issue is fixed costs are being replaced by oncoming growth in the variable areas which changes the dynamic of the cost base. "One of the key items around the average rate growth is what's going to happen when the full business mix returns," Grove said. "We still have a lot more of the lower-rated business to come back-the tours and groups and the other segments. We need to look at the impact on the cost lines themselves, the expense items around the P&L and what impact inflation is having on those, what impact the labor challenge is having.

IN RECENT WEEKS, CBRE Hotels Research has revised its forecast for the hospitality industry upward in light of several factors, such as rising occupancy levels, improvement in domestic travel and some opening in international travel. Recent developments, however, including the rise of the Omicron variant of the virus that causes COVID-19, elevates the uncertainty level of those forecasts, but still the industry is expected to return to 2019 levels by the second half of 2023 rather than 2024. Hotel occupancy in the third quarter rose 35.1 percent over the previous year, according to CBRE's December 2021 edition of Hotel Horizons. ADR also saw gains, reaching 2019 nominal levels in the third quarter. "CBRE expects ADR will continue to exceed 2019 levels, followed by a demand recovery in early 2023," CBRE said in a statement. "Pent-up demand for leisure destinations, an increase in household personal savings and fewer constraints on availability compared with earlier in the pandemic contributed to the brisk pace of ADR recovery. The resumption of inbound international travel will help gateway markets regain occupancy in the coming year."