UTS-AEI

"Meditation can leave you feeling even more stressed," the Daily Mail reports. The claim is prompted by a study of 60 practitioners of Buddhist meditation in the US which found they'd had a range of "challenging or difficult" experiences associated with the practice. However, it's not clear how relevant the results are to the majority of people who use meditation apps or take mindfulness classes. This article discusses a great example of bad medical reporting from the daily mail. Note how the numbers stack up (e.g "almost 100" is actually 60 patients)

Data analysis is playing an increasing role in the U.S. electoral system, raising an important question as the Trump administration prepares to oversee the 2020 Census: What if the data aren't reliable?

Nice little interactive piece from the NYTimes - they've charted sets of data from the Bush presidency, can you accurately extend their line charts to show the change over the Obama years?

Mona Chalabi on the perils of polling data and the importance of official statistics

Should newspapers be adding confidence intervals to their graphics? Why, she asked, are newspapers like hers hesitant to print confidence intervals, a statistical measure of uncertainty? With the exception of noting sampling error in polling data, newspapers like the Times only show uncertainty when they're forced to - and often to prove the opposite of what point data might show.

A piece I wrote on how psychology helps us understand fake news and information seeking. Every day we face complex situations in which the information we need, and who we trust to provide that information, has a very real impact on our lives. How do we evaluate the competing claims of politicians on climate change policy, or Brexit; navigate medical information regarding vaccinating our children; or assess the relative merits of diet versus regular foods in adopting a healthy lifestyle?

A new paper published in PLOS One by John Cook, Stephan Lewandowsky, and Ullrich Ecker tests the power of inoculation; not against disease, but against the sort of misinformation that created the conditions leading to Minnesota measles outbreak. Inoculation theory suggests that exposing people to the tricks used to spread misinformation can equip them with the tools to recognize and reject such bogus claims.

While shark attacks are very rare, reports of shark attacks are on the rise. They have more than tripled in recent decades - from a total of 157 reports worldwide between 1970 and 1979 to a combined 661 reports from 2000 to 2009, according to the Florida Program for Shark Research (FPSR), which maintains a database of known attacks dating back to the mid-1500s. It's important to note that the increase is partly the result of an improved reporting system. But research also indicates that human population growth, increased interest in aquatic recreational activities and changes in weather and water quality play a role.

Not a day goes by without a flurry of data-driven memes passing through my Facebook news feed, sailing by on my Twitter stream or landing as alerts in my email inbox that cite what appear to be reputable datasets and using them to offer surprising conclusions, typically wrapped up in a mesmerizing infographic. Yet, when I pick any of these memes at random and delve into it, I find that it is the rare meme indeed that stands up to statistical scrutiny.

What do you take from this hypothetical headline: "Reading the Research Digest blog is associated with higher intelligence"? How about this one: "Reading this blog might increase your intelligence"? According to science writing guides like HealthNewsReview.org, taking the first correlational finding from a peer-reviewed article and reporting it for the public using the second wording, implying causation, is a sin of exaggeration, making a relationship appear more causal than the evidence suggests.

Sometimes it's hard to know what statistics are worthy of trust. But we shouldn't count out stats altogether ... instead, we should learn to look behind them. In this delightful, hilarious talk, data journalist Mona Chalabi shares handy tips to help question, interpret and truly understand what the numbers are saying.

But shouldn't there be some kind of accountability when you're talking about public money? My response would be what kind of accountability do we have now? Our schools are graded by test scores, and half the schools are doing worse than the other half and nobody does anything about that at all. This is the advantage of letting parents control the venue for education. And Michael Gove (excerpt at) https://twitter.com/Annelies_Leeuw/status/851945727110643717/photo/1

almost all the stories I looked at emphasized that "1 in 10 pregnant women" with Zika gave birth to babies with birth defects.But how many actual women does the "1 in 10" figure represent? How many actual babies with birth defects?You have to wade far down into all of these stories to find the numbers, whereas NPR puts them right in its headline:51 Babies Born With Zika-Related Birth Defects In The U.S. Last YearThe fact that 1 in 10 women with Zika have babies with birth defects is accurate but not nearly as informative as it could be.And when communicating to a general audience, it's misleading to the point of scaremongering to make the "1 in 10" headline the take-home message from the study.

The public understandably focuses on polling results and how much these results seem to vary. Take two presidential approval polls from March 21. Polling firm Rasmussen Reports reported that 50 percent of Americans approve of President Donald Trump's performance, while, that same day, Gallup stated that only 37 percent do. In late February, the website FiveThirtyEight listed 18 other presidential approval polls in which Trump's approval ratings ranged from 39 percent to 55 percent. Some of these pollsters queried likely voters, some registered voters and others adults, regardless of their voting status. Almost half of the polls relied on phone calls, another half on online polling and a few used a mix of the two. Further complicating matters, it's not entirely clear how calling cellphones or landlines affects a poll's results. Each of these choices has a consequence, and the range of results attests to the degree that these choices can influence results.

Long read from the New Yorker on employment statistics. Good economic statistics benefit the left and the right, government and business. Without reliable data, businesses can't take risks on investments. Boeing, for example, decides how many 787 Dreamliners to build and therefore how many people to employ based on its Current Market Outlook forecast, which is rooted in government data and projects aircraft demand for the next twenty years.

By UTS' Stephen Woodcock. Statistics is a useful tool for understanding the patterns in the world around us. But our intuition often lets us down when it comes to interpreting those patterns. In this series we look at some of the common mistakes we make and how to avoid them when thinking about statistics, probability and risk.

Top Hollywood actresses have complained that they are paid less than their male co-stars - analysis of this data and how female actresses are represented in film

Statistics is a useful tool for understanding the patterns in the world around us. But our intuition often lets us down when it comes to interpreting those patterns. In this series we look at some of the common mistakes we make and how to avoid them when thinking about statistics, probability and risk.

Statistics is a useful tool for understanding the patterns in the world around us. But our intuition often lets us down when it comes to interpreting those patterns. In this series we look at some of the common mistakes we make and how to avoid them when thinking about statistics, probability and risk.

You may have heard the advice for pregnant women to avoid eating soft cheeses. This is because soft cheeses can sometimes carry the Listeria monocytogenes bacteria, which can cause a mild infection. In some cases, the infection can be serious, even fatal, for the unborn child. However, the infection is very rare, affecting only around 65 people out of 23.5 million in Australia in 2014. That's 0.0003% of the population. Of these, only around 10% are pregnant women. Of these, only 20% of infections prove fatal to the foetus. We're getting down to some very small numbers here. If we talked about every risk factor in our lives the way health authorities talk about soft cheeses, we'd likely don a helmet and kneepads every morning after we get out of bed. And we'd certainly never drive a car. The upshot of this example is to emphasise that our intuitions about risk are often out of step with the actualities. So journalists need to take great care when reporting risk so as not to exacerbate our intuitive deficits as a species.