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A STRONGER THAN expected performance by U.S. hotels in the fourth quarter of 2021 led CBRE Hotels Research to upgrade its forecast for the rest of 2022. CBRE now forecasts RevPAR will reach 2019 nominal levels by the third quarter of this year, one year earlier than the previous forecast. Occupancy is expected to rise 6.7 percent to 61.3 percent this year, then rise 5.2 percent to 64.4 percent in 2023. ADR is forecast to rise 10.1 percent to $133.94 in 2022 and go up 6 percent more to $141.99 in 2023. CBRE expects RevPAR to rise 17.5 percent in 2022 overall to $82.04 and then rise 11.5 percent to $91.46 in 2023. Positive trends, such as high employment and the return to the office for many workers who had been working from home contributed to the revised forecast, CBRE said. Other factors contributing to the improvement include below-average supply growth, strong domestic leisure trends, the resumption of inbound international travel and a predicted return to office later this year. However, ongoing inflation and geopolitical tensions connected to the war in Ukraine still threaten progress.

THE BAIRD/STR HOTEL Stock Index rose again in April, continuing a trend the index has followed for the past four months. Investors' optimism is driven by the travel industry's ongoing recovery due to pent-up demand that is overriding negative influences, such as the Russia/Ukraine war and rising interest rates. Baird/STR went up 0.7 percent during the month, according to STR. The index rose 3.1 percent over the first four months of 2022. In March it increased 2.2 percent in March after rising 4.1 percent in February. The index also surpassed both the S&P 500, which dropped 8.8 percent in April, and the MSCI US REIT Index, which went down 4.6 percent. The hotel brand sub-index rose 0.5 percent from March, while the hotel REIT sub-index jumped up 1.5 percent.

U.S. EXTENDED-STAY hotels registered an increase in occupancy and ADR in the first quarter of this year, according to hotel investment advisors The Highland Group. Record high demand, low supply growth and rising overall ADR are driving the strong performance. Economy and mid-price extended-stay hotels recovered RevPAR to their nominal 2019 values and the former is leading the recovery, the U.S. Extended-stay Hotels: First Quarter 2022 report said. However, the upscale extended-stay segment is lagging the overall recovery but reporting slightly better recovery performance as demand is at an all-time high, the report added. "There were 564,257 extended-stay hotel rooms open at the end of the first quarter. However, the 17,165 net gain in rooms open over the last year was the lowest annual increase since 2014, excluding 2020. Room nights available increased 3.1 percent over 2021, but supply growth dropped 50 percent from 2016 across all three segments," the report said.

U.S. EXTENDED-STAY HOTELS set new records for demand, ADR, RevPAR and room revenues in the fourth quarter of 2022, according to a report from hotel investment advisors The Highland Group. Also, the report showed rate resistance is apparent at lower price points due to recession and the economy extended-stay segment reported nine consecutive months of declining demand and three successive quarterly falls in occupancy. According to the Highland Group's "U.S. Extended-Stay Hotels: Fourth Quarter 2022" report, mid-price extended-stay hotels reported their second consecutive quarterly decline in occupancy in fourth quarter. Similar occupancy declines occurred for about two years starting in mid-2015 before ADR growth moderated and occupancy recovered. Extended-stay hotel supply growth was the lowest since 2013 during the quarter, below its long-term historical average for 20 consecutive quarters. The last time extended-stay supply growth was consistently near its current level was from 2010 fourth quarter through third quarter of 2014. "Extended-stay hotel RevPAR was more than 12 percent higher than in fourth quarter of 2019. There were 567,770 extended-stay hotel rooms open at the end of the quarter. Excluding 2020, the 6,481 net gain in rooms open over the last year was the lowest annual increase since 2012. Room nights available increased 1.2 percent over the last year which was the smallest annual gain in supply for nine years," the report said. "Fractional net economy and upscale segment supply gains compared to 2021 are largely due to re-branding moving rooms between segments in our database, de-flagging of hotels which no longer meet brand standards, as well as the sales of some hotels to multi-family apartment companies and municipalities."

U.S. HOTELS ADDED 700 jobs in May, highlighting persistent workforce shortages, with 191,500 vacancies since early 2020, according to the American Hotel & Lodging Association. However, a survey by AHLA of hoteliers in May found 76 percent of respondents are experiencing a staffing shortage and 13 percent reported they are severely understaffed, meaning the shortage is affecting their hotel's ability to operate. By comparison, in a January survey, 67 percent said they were experiencing a staffing shortage, and 72 percent said they were unable to fill open positions. Total hotel employment is now approximately 1.92 million, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This is still 191,500 short of pre-pandemic levels in February 2020, highlighting the ongoing struggle to find workers.