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U.S. TRAVELERS SAID that gas prices and inflation will impact their summer travel decisions more than COVID-19 concerns, according to a survey commissioned by the American Hotel & Lodging Association. The survey, conducted by Morning Consult and released just ahead of the Memorial Day holiday weekend ending May 30, revealed that more than half of the respondents, 57 percent, are likely to take fewer leisure trips and 54 percent will take shorter trips due to current gas prices. The majority of people surveyed, 82 percent, said that gas prices will have at least some impact on their travel destinations.

ANNUAL CHANGES IN U.S. hotel utility costs and in the Consumer Price Index, or inflation, have historically proven to be strongly correlated. As of August 2022, CBRE is forecasting CPI growth to be 7.7 percent in 2022, followed by another 3.6 percent in 2023. Since inflation has averaged just 2.2 percent since 2000, these inflation projections have hoteliers concerned about operating costs. Given that rising energy costs are a significant driver of the current rise in CPI, hotel managers are especially worried about utility department expenses. Over the past 50 years, utility department expenses have averaged between 3 and 4 percent of total revenue, indicating that hotel managers have been successfully controlling energy costs in the face of fluctuating business volumes. This is particularly commendable given the highly fixed nature of utility expenses. To provide some context to the current challenging environment, we studied recent trends in hotel utility department expenses. The data come from a sample of more than 2,800 U.S. hotels that reported utility department expenses each year from 2015 through 2021 for CBRE's annual "Trends in the Hotel Industry" survey. In 2021 the properties in the sample averaged 209 rooms in size, with an annual occupancy rate of 54.2 percent and an average daily rate of $152.70.

OCCUPANCY FOR U.S. hotels is now expected to finish the year a little down from the previous forecast by STR and Tourism Economics. However, projections for ADR and RevPAR recovery remain on track in the data firms' final forecast of the year. RevPAR is still expected to fully recover this year on a nominal basis, but not until 2025 when adjusted for inflation, according to the new forecast. The updated forecast lowered occupancy by less than a percentage point for 2022, standing now at 62.7 percent compared to the previously forecasted 63 percent released in August. "As expected, group business travel has been much more aligned with pre-pandemic patterns, specifically in October when group demand hit a pandemic-era high," said Amanda Hite, STR president. "Leisure travel has maintained its strength since our previous forecast update, and we expect these strong demand trends in both group and leisure to continue through the fourth quarter. Bottom-line performance has also persisted, with our most recent data showing strong profit margins due to lower employment levels and reduced services. The challenges around labor continue to be a concern, as high levels of hospitality unemployment and more spending on contract labor are pushing labor costs on a per-available-room basis above 2019 levels. We continue to take inflation and the likely recession into consideration, but the hotel industry has continued to show resilience through these tougher times, thus the steadiness of our updated forecast."

THE MAJOR CHALLENGES faced by U.S. hotels are labor, the return of corporate, group and conference travel, the impact of inflation on cost lines and the energy crisis, said Michael Grove, COO of HotStats, in a recent presentation. In the same session at the International Hospitality Investment Forum, panelists debated the best metric by which to measure industry performance. While speaking during a panel session at IHIF titled "Decoding the Data", Grove said that the most pressing issue is fixed costs are being replaced by oncoming growth in the variable areas which changes the dynamic of the cost base. "One of the key items around the average rate growth is what's going to happen when the full business mix returns," Grove said. "We still have a lot more of the lower-rated business to come back-the tours and groups and the other segments. We need to look at the impact on the cost lines themselves, the expense items around the P&L and what impact inflation is having on those, what impact the labor challenge is having.

DRIVEN BY STRONGER-than-expected demand and moderate supply, CBRE has raised its forecast for hotel performance again this year, resulting in increased occupancy. CBRE revised its forecast for 2023 RevPAR to $97.89, up 6 percent year-over-year and an increase of $0.43 rise from the previous forecast. This positive revision is based on a 65-basis-point increase in expected occupancy compared to the previous forecast issued in February, CBRE said in a statement. Furthermore, the ADR is projected to grow by 3.7 percent in 2023, slightly lower than the previous forecast of 4.2 percent. According to CBRE Hotels Research, this is primarily due to slightly lower inflation expectations and a higher proportion of group travel and shoulder-period demand, which typically have lower rates. CBRE's baseline scenario forecast envisages an average GDP growth of 0.8 percent and average inflation of 4.6 percent in 2023. Given the strong correlation between GDP and RevPAR growth, changes in the economic outlook will directly impact the performance of the lodging industry, CBRE noted. "We are already starting to see signs that the easing of travel restrictions in Japan and China, combined with continued improvements in group and independent business demand, are bolstering demand heading into the heavy summer travel season," said Rachael Rothman, head of hotel research & data analytics at CBRE.

THE U.S. HOTEL industry will be well on the way to recovery in 2022, according to consulting firm HVS Americas. However, a full recovery in real terms, after adjusting for inflation, remains a few years away, it added. With more assets, both distressed and well performing, expected to come to market this year, 2022 will be an exciting year for the industry, said Rod Clough, president of HVS, in an article titled 'ALIS 2022 Takeaways - Our Industry Braces for a Big Year Ahead'. A near full recovery in RevPAR at $85 for U.S. hotels is likely to happen by the end of 2022 when compared to $86 in 2018-19. "The higher inflationary environment will continue to bode well for hotels, resulting in ADR pricing power leading to a lift in revenue on top of still lean operational models. Group travel is still lagging the recovery, but near-term, smaller-group bookings (at newly raised room rates) should help bridge the gap while the industry waits for larger meetings to return," Clough wrote in the article. "Rising development costs due to supply-chain disruptions, labor shortages, and overall inflation are leading to a general contraction in new hotel openings. Moreover, development challenges are intensifying for major CBDs, attributed to slow office re-openings, a lag in larger convention bookings, higher operating/labor costs, and even higher construction costs than your average project."

U.S. HOTEL LEISURE travel revenue is projected to rise 14 percent this year over pre-pandemic levels and business travel revenue is expected to be within 1 percent of 2019 range, according to a report by the American Hotel & Lodging Association and Kalibri Labs. However, these projections are not adjusted for inflation, and real hotel revenue recovery may take many years, a statement said. Among the top 50 U.S. markets, 80 percent are projected to see hotel leisure travel revenue exceed 2019 levels, but just 40 percent are expected reach that milestone for business travel revenue. Many urban markets are yet to recover due to their dependence on business from events and group meetings, the report said. All markets in the top 10 are likely to report increase in leisure travel revenue except New York, Washington and San Francisco. Whereas, in business travel revenue only Orlando, Las Vegas and San Diego will end up this year in green among the top 10.

THE REVPAR OF U.S. hotels reached an all-time weekly high on a nominal and a pandemic-era high on an inflation-adjusted basis in the third week of June, according to STR. Boosted by the highest weekly demand of 28 million room nights sold since August 2019, occupancy was the highest of the pandemic-era during the week. Occupancy was 71.8 percent for the week ending June 18, up from 70.6 percent the week before and dropped 4.8 percent from 2019. ADR was $155.02 for the week, slightly down from $155.37 the week before and increased 14.9 percent from three years ago. RevPAR reached $111.29 during the week up from $109.76 the week before and up 9.4 percent from 2019. San Diego saw the only occupancy increase, up 0.5 percent to 86 percent, over 2019 among STR's top 25 markets. According to STR, New York City (86.6 percent), San Diego and Seattle (85 percent) led the major markets in absolute occupancy for the week.

THE REVPAR OF U.S. hotels is expected to surpass 2019 levels this year, according to the upgraded forecast by STR and Tourism Economics. Still, full recovery may be a couple of years away. ADR and RevPAR for U.S. hotels are forecasted at $14 and $6 higher in 2022 respectively, when compared to 2019, the report presented at the 44th annual NYU International Hospitality Industry Investment Conference stated. However, occupancy in this year is projected to come in under the pre-pandemic comparable. Earlier, the forecast projected nominal RevPAR recovery in 2023. According to the forecast, the major factor in the revised timeline was a plus $11 adjustment in 2022 ADR. But, when adjusted for inflation, full recovery of ADR and RevPAR are not projected until 2024. The report added that central business districts and the top 25 markets are not expected to reach full RevPAR recovery until after 2024.

U.S. EXTENDED-STAY hotels continued to perform well in November with recovery indices up compared to October and 2019, according to a report from The Highland Group. However, the market is showing signs of slowing. All extended-stay segments posted RevPAR gains in November compared to last year, the US Extended-Stay Hotels Bulletin: November 2022 report said. "Monthly gains in ADR and RevPAR have decelerated for most of the year and November increases were the lowest in 2022. Both economy and mid-price segments reported RevPAR increases well below the rate of inflation for the first time in November," the report said. "ADR growth is still high compared to long-term averages but with the economy segment reporting its eighth consecutive monthly decline in demand and mid-price extended-stay hotel demand also declining in November, rate resistance is building especially at lower price points."

PEACHTREE HOTEL GROUP recently acquired two upscale hotels in Florida. They are the 207-key AC Hotel Miami Aventura and the 233-key Aloft Miami Aventura, in Aventura, Florida, outside Miami. With these recent acquisitions, Atlanta-based Peachtree, led by partners Bimal Patel, Hiten Suraj and Rupesh Patel, has acquired approximately $2 billion in hotel assets this year. The company expects to continue making opportunistic hotel acquisitions amid the current hospitality recovery cycle. "Our growth strategy since Peachtree's inception is to capitalize on cycle-specific opportunities," said Greg Friedman, Peachtree's CEO. "Today, we are seeing opportunities to acquire hotels at compelling levels, which hasn't been available over the last 15 months. With strengthening economic tailwinds boosting hotel fundamentals and compelling cap rates compared to other asset classes, the lodging sector is among the best real estate classes for investing. Also, with the ongoing inflationary environment, hotels are an excellent hedge against inflation due to daily adjustments in average daily rates."

HOTELS CAN ENHANCE profitability through greater reliance on revenue management technology tactics, according to IDeaS, a revenue management service provider. The survey examines how investors view revenue technologies, the role of artificial intelligence in hospitality, and how technology is reshaping hospitality commercial organizations. According to the survey, "Unlocking hotel performance: The power of revenue management technology today,'" inflation and economic pressures may lead hoteliers to consider cost-cutting measures to boost profitability. However, a majority of respondents view revenue management technology as the most effective and efficient way to enhance net operating income. "For investors, revenue management technology is shifting from a competitive edge to an essential instrument for maintaining competitiveness and securing a solid bottom line," said Mike Chuma, vice president of global marketing, IDeaS.

OCCUPANCY PROJECTIONS ARE dropping while ADR projections are rising in a new forecast for U.S. hotels by STR and Tourism Economics. RevPAR is still expected to recover fully on a nominal basis this year, according to the forecast released Thursday at STR's 14th Annual Hotel Data Conference in Nashville. However, RevPAR is still expected to take until 2025 to recover when adjusted for inflation, according to the forecast. For 2022, RevPAR is now expected to average $93 compared to the projection of $92 released in June, when projected nominal RevPAR recovery was set in 2023. The occupancy projection for the year was lowered to 64.6 percent for the year and the ADR projection rose to $148. The updated forecast adds a little more than $2 to the ADR projection for both 2022 and 2023, and occupancy was lowered by less than a percentage point for each year.

PEACHTREE GROUP, THE newly formed affiliate of Peachtree Hotel Group created last week to handle its real estate investments, is launching its first initiative, the 1031 Exchange Delaware Statutory Trust program. The company also selected Tim Witt as president over the new program. A DST is a single-purpose entity qualified for Section 1031 real estate exchanges, according to Peachtree. It allows investors to exchange replacement properties without incurring taxable gain on the sale of previously owned assets. Peachtree's 1031 Exchange DST program will invest in institutional-grade hotels in the U.S. through Peachtree Hospitality Management, another division of Peachtree, is expected to operate any properties acquired as part of the exchange. "As we expand our array of high-quality, diversified investment strategies, we wanted to create 1031 Exchange DSTs to provide tax deferral strategies in the hospitality sector," said Greg Friedman, Peachtree's CEO and managing principal. "We anticipate significant growth and appreciation in the hospitality sector, driving values above pre-pandemic levels. Also, real estate offers an excellent alternative investment channel for those seeking an inflation hedge. We strongly believe hospitality is the most investable asset in the market today, and we anticipate being able to achieve outsized returns."

THE REVPAR OF hotels in Phoenix is forecasted to reach $419 for Super Bowl weekend of February 10-12, the second-highest level for the event, according to STR. As the city also hosts Phoenix Open this week, the Friday through Sunday night occupancy may touch 94 percent and ADR to hit $445. According to STR, a unique volume of demand would push occupancy slightly higher than Phoenix's last host year in 2015 (93.7 percent) even though supply increased by 11.7 percent this year. The ADR level would rank third among host markets behind Miami in 2020 and San Francisco in 2016. "Phoenix's jump in RevPAR during its last Super Bowl host year was staggering, and this time around will be no different with big-time growth contribution from both occupancy and ADR," said Isaac Collazo, STR's vice president of analytics. "Demand speaks for itself, especially with consumer behavior around the event free of pandemic concerns-unlike the last two Super Bowls. Phoenix's ADR situation has different influences than recent host markets given inflation and having less upper-tier supply than a Los Angeles or Miami." The overall Phoenix market comprises 544 hotels with 70,488 rooms.