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THE UPWARD MOVEMENT of ADR for U.S. hotels lifted the forecast for the market by STR and Tourism Economics. The travel research firms released the new forecast during the opening sessions of the Americas Lodging Investment Summit in Los Angeles on Monday. The recovery timeline laid out in the new forecast remains mostly the same as the previous forecast released in November, with ADR will near full recovery this year. RevPAR is anticipated to exceed 2019 levels in 2023, but when adjusted for inflation ADR and RevPAR are not projected to reach full recovery until after 2025. Occupancy is projected to surpass 2019 levels in 2023. "The industry recaptured 83 percent of pre-pandemic RevPAR levels in 2021, and momentum is expected to pick up after a slow start to this year," said Carter Wilson, STR's senior vice president of consulting. "With so much of that RevPAR recovery being led by leisure-driven ADR, however, it is important to keep an eye on the real versus the nominal. Terms of recovery are not playing out evenly across the board, and many hoteliers have had to raise rates to minimize the bottom-line hit from labor and supply shortages. We are anticipating inflation to remain higher throughout the first half of the year with a gradual leveling off during the third and fourth quarters. If that happens, and we avoid major setbacks with the pandemic, this year will certainly be one to watch with demand and occupancy also shaping up to hit significant levels during the second half."

U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE during the second week of September increased from the previous week, according to CoStar. Yearly comparisons also were mostly up. Occupancy was 67.7 percent for the week ending Sept. 16, up from 60.3 percent the week before but down 2.2 percent from the same time last year. ADR was $161.15 for the week, up from $150.66 the previous week and up 2.3 percent from the previous year. RevPAR for the week was $109.07, up from $90.86 weekly and up 0.1 percent from 2022. Among the top 25 markets, Oahu Island, Hawaii, saw the largest year-over-year occupancy increase, up 7.4 percent to 83.6 percent. San Francisco saw the highest jumps in ADR, up 39.7 percent to $345.78, and RevPAR, which rose 33.9 percent to $271.19, due in part to attendance of Dreamforce 2023.

U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE dipped in the first week of September compared to the week before, according to STR. However, performance during the week improved when compared to 2019. Occupancy was 62.8 percent for the week ending Sept. 3, down from 65 percent the week before and up 3.1 percent from 2019. ADR was $147.14 for the week, almost similar to the week before at $147.16 and increased 20.9 percent from three years ago. RevPAR reached $92.45 during the week, down from $95.62 the week before and increased 24.6 percent from 2019. Among STR's top 25 markets, Miami reported the largest increase in occupancy to kick off September, up 30.1 percent to 62.2 percent and RevPAR, increased 86.5 percent to $112.37, over 2019.

PERFORMANCE OF U.S. hotels improved in the third week of September compared to the week before and also when compared to 2019, according to STR. Occupancy was 69.6 percent for the week ending Sept. 17, up from 61.7 percent the week before and decreased 2.4 percent from 2019. ADR was $155.58 for the week, increased from $146.80 the week before and increased 15.6 percent from three years ago. RevPAR reached $108.25 during the week, up from $90.50 the week before and improved 12.9 percent from 2019. Among STR's top 25 markets, Norfolk/Virginia Beach reported the highest occupancy increase during the week, up 6.6 percent to 70.9 percent, over 2019. Miami reported the largest ADR gain, increased 30.7 percent to $177.10, over 2019.

U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE dropped in the fifth week of September as expected with the Rosh Hashanah holiday, according to STR. ADR and RevPAR were up during the week when compared to 2019, but occupancy was down. Occupancy was 66.4 percent for the week ending Oct. 1, down from 70 percent the week before and decreased 2.4 percent from 2019. ADR was $149.71 for the week, dropped from $157.99 the week before and increased 15.7 percent from three years ago. RevPAR reached $99.36 during the week, down from $110.60 the week before and up 12.9 percent from 2019. According to STR, there was demand shifts in the southeast region due to Hurricane Ian besides the Rosh Hashanah impact on business travel and groups.

A SLIGHT DROP was witnessed in U.S. hotel performance in the first week of April from the week before due to a continuing slump in Spring Break travel, according to STR. Little movement was seen in the top 25 markets as well. Occupancy was 64.1 percent for the week ending April 2, down from 65.5 percent the week before and down 6.4 percent for the same period in 2019. ADR was $145.74 for the week, dropped from $149.38 the week before and increased 11.7 percent from two years ago. RevPAR was $93.48 for the week, dipped from $97.92 the week before and up 4.5 percent from the same period in 2019.

DALLAS LEADS THE U.S. hotel construction pipeline for the fourth consecutive quarter, according to Lodging Econometrics. Among brands, Marriott International led the pipeline. Dallas had a record 173 projects with 20,707 rooms in the second quarter of this year, followed by Atlanta with 140 projects containing 18,131 rooms, Los Angeles with 124 projects with 20,365 rooms, New York, with 113 projects with 19,238 rooms and Phoenix with 108 projects containing 14,964 rooms, Marriott had 1,355 projects with 167,034 rooms, up 4 percent by projects year-over-year, tops the pipeline during the period. The Q2 2022 U.S. Construction Pipeline Trend Report said that major markets and popular tourist destinations in the U.S. reported highest occupancy rates since the pandemic began in early 2020 in the second quarter mainly due to robust leisure travel, group, and international travel. New York City with 78 projects with 13,063 rooms, Atlanta with 25 projects containing 3,905 rooms, Dallas with 25 projects with 3,725 rooms, Phoenix with 23 projects with 4,955 rooms and Los Angeles with 22 projects with 3,606 rooms are the top five markets with the most projects under construction during the end of June. They account for 22 percent of rooms under construction in the U.S.

U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE dropped in the second week of July, as expected due to a holiday calendar shift, according to STR. The performance was skewed downward due to a comparison with a non-holiday week in 2019. STR said that performance is expected to improve for the remaining weeks of July after two consecutive weeks of lower demand around the Independence Day holiday. Occupancy was 63.3 percent for the week ending July 9, down from 67.3 percent the week before and dropped 14.5 percent from 2019. ADR was $153.71 for the week, slightly up from $153.32 the week before and increased 15.7 percent from three years ago. RevPAR reached $97.37 during the week down from $103.24 the week before and down 1.1 percent from 2019.

A STRONGER THAN expected performance by U.S. hotels in the fourth quarter of 2021 led CBRE Hotels Research to upgrade its forecast for the rest of 2022. CBRE now forecasts RevPAR will reach 2019 nominal levels by the third quarter of this year, one year earlier than the previous forecast. Occupancy is expected to rise 6.7 percent to 61.3 percent this year, then rise 5.2 percent to 64.4 percent in 2023. ADR is forecast to rise 10.1 percent to $133.94 in 2022 and go up 6 percent more to $141.99 in 2023. CBRE expects RevPAR to rise 17.5 percent in 2022 overall to $82.04 and then rise 11.5 percent to $91.46 in 2023. Positive trends, such as high employment and the return to the office for many workers who had been working from home contributed to the revised forecast, CBRE said. Other factors contributing to the improvement include below-average supply growth, strong domestic leisure trends, the resumption of inbound international travel and a predicted return to office later this year. However, ongoing inflation and geopolitical tensions connected to the war in Ukraine still threaten progress.

THE REVPAR OF U.S. hotels is expected to surpass 2019 levels this year, according to the upgraded forecast by STR and Tourism Economics. Still, full recovery may be a couple of years away. ADR and RevPAR for U.S. hotels are forecasted at $14 and $6 higher in 2022 respectively, when compared to 2019, the report presented at the 44th annual NYU International Hospitality Industry Investment Conference stated. However, occupancy in this year is projected to come in under the pre-pandemic comparable. Earlier, the forecast projected nominal RevPAR recovery in 2023. According to the forecast, the major factor in the revised timeline was a plus $11 adjustment in 2022 ADR. But, when adjusted for inflation, full recovery of ADR and RevPAR are not projected until 2024. The report added that central business districts and the top 25 markets are not expected to reach full RevPAR recovery until after 2024.

U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE decreased in the third week of December compared to the week before, according to STR. However, performance metrics improved when compared to 2019 in part because of a favorable calendar shift. According to STR, the corresponding week in 2019 ended on 21 December, which brought performance down lower for that period. Occupancy was 54.5 percent for the week ending Dec. 17, down from 59.6 percent the week before and an increase of 9.2 percent from 2019. ADR was $135.08 during the week, dropped from $144.79 the week before and up 23.7 percent from three years ago. RevPAR reached $73.65 during the week, down from $86.29 the week before and up 35.1 percent from 2019.

U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE improved in the final week of 2022 compared to the week before due to favorable side of a holiday calendar shift, according to STR. When compared to the same period in 2019 performance also increased in the last week of December. According to STR, the comparable week in 2019 covered Dec. 29 to Jan. 4. Occupancy was 54.2 percent for the week ending Dec. 31, up from 43.9 percent the week before and increased 10.4 percent from 2019. ADR was $167.21 during the week, a steep increase from $132.29 the week before and up 21.7 percent from three years ago. RevPAR reached $90.63 in the final week of December, rose from $58.04 the week before and up 34.3 percent from 2019.

U.S. HOTEL REVPAR is expected to grow steadily in 2024, driven by improving group business, inbound international travel, and traditional transient business demand, according to CBRE. This follows a strong performance in 2023 that muted the new forecast in some areas. The research firm forecasted a 3 percent increase in RevPAR growth in 2024, with occupancy improving by 45 basis points and ADR increasing by 2.3 percent. It indicates ongoing recovery of the lodging industry, with RevPAR in 2024 expected to surpass 2019 levels by 13.2 percent, CBRE Hotels said in a statement. CBRE's baseline forecast expects 1.6 percent GDP growth and 2.5 percent average inflation in 2024. Given the strong correlation between GDP and RevPAR growth, the economy's strength will directly impact the lodging industry's performance, the statement said. "We expect RevPAR growth to be slower in the first quarter due to last year's strong performance, but to reach its peak in the third quarter driven by the influx of inbound international travelers during the busy summer season," said Rachael Rothman, CBRE's head of hotel research and data analytics. "Urban and airport locations should particularly benefit from group and inbound international travel, as well as the normalization of leisure travel."

MONITORING GOPPAR PERFORMANCE allows hoteliers to make smart decisions about running their business as they consider all revenue streams and cost variables, according to HotStats. The focus should be on maximizing profit rather than just increasing revenue. GOPPAR is calculated by taking total revenue, subtracting total departmental and undistributed expenses, then dividing by the total number of available rooms, according to a blog post by HotStats. GOPPAR index measurement gives guidance about why a hotel is either outperforming or underperforming its direct competitors, allowing a hotel owner to make critical changes to improve business, it said. In February, GOPPAR for U.S. hotels was down 33 percent compared to February 2019, whereas RevPAR was down 26 percent for the month. It provided evidence that costs were eating farther into the P&L in February.

GOPPAR OF U.S. hotels hit $65.98 in February, its highest point since October last year and more than $40 more than in January, but down from $90 in February 2019, according to HotStats. However, a rise in expenses could derail a profit rebound, the data analyzing firm said. The payroll expense of U.S. hotels was up to $66.60 per available room in February, highest since the inception of the pandemic, according to HotStats. Though payroll is up 192 percent from its lowest point during the pandemic, it is still down $30 when compared to pre-pandemic numbers. Factors such as inflation, supply chain problems and war in Ukraine are driving costs up. Expense on utilities on a PAR basis are already back to pre-pandemic levels, HotStats said.

LAS VEGAS HOTEL ADR is anticipated to reach $573 during February 9-11, setting a record for any Super Bowl weekend, according to STR. The research firm also foresees an 87.9 percent occupancy rate for the market from Friday to Sunday night, translating to a RevPAR of $504. Miami set records for the highest Super Bowl ADR and RevPAR in 2020, STR said. However, a significant difference lies in size: Las Vegas, the largest U.S. market with 393 hotels and 172,707 rooms, has more than double Miami's room inventory. "The Super Bowl's unique volume of demand, driven by not only the game but the leadup festivities, as well as the attractions Las Vegas has to offer, is the perfect recipe to drive record-breaking prices," said Chris Klauda, STR's senior director of market insights. "While the F1 Vegas Grand Prix impact was the greatest on and around the Las Vegas Strip, the reach and impact of Super Bowl LVIII will spread to areas well beyond the Strip."

IN JUNE, GOPPAR for U.S. hotels reached its highest level since October 2019, according to STR. All profitability metrics were up in the month compared to the month before. GOPPAR was $91.23 for the month, up from $88.63 reported in May. In April GOPPAR stood at $90.96. EBITDA PAR was $69.53 for June, TRevPAR was $226.10 and labor costs per room were $68.40. "Each of the key bottom-line metrics increased from May due to a rise in room rates as well as improved revenue from F&B and groups," said Joseph Rael, STR's senior director of financial performance. "Profit margins have held strong the past 12 months but have been slightly reduced recently due to rising wages and costs. Hotels have brought back services, amenities and F&B operations that were previously reduced, which have increased profits overall but at lower margins. While F&B revenues remain strong, catering and banquet revenue has lagged with improvement in recent months due to rising group demand."

HOTEL CONSTRUCTION DROPPED in December, falling 61,000 rooms below the peak reached in early 2020, according to STR. The number of projects under construction and in final planning is particularly down from the same time last year while many more are in the planning phase. There were 158,906 rooms in the construction phase in December, down 19.2 percent from the same month in 2020, according to STR. There were 185,231 rooms in final planning, down 20.6 percent from 2020, but there were 284,502 rooms, up 38.9 percent from the previous December. "This past year was the second in a row with far fewer rooms in construction and final planning, but the rise in planning activity could be an indicator that the pandemic's impact on the pipeline will be different than what we saw during the Great Recession," said Alison Hoyt, STR's senior director of consulting. "During the previous recession, construction declines persisted from 2008 through 2010, but with massive jump in planning today, the construction downturn may not last as long as more rooms advance to later phases of the pipeline."

STR IS LAUNCHING a new phase, STR Benchmarking, a market share product for the global hotel industry, according to STR's parent company, real estate marketplaces, information and analytics provider CoStar Group. The new software platform will offer property-level data and analytics for hotel owners and operators with functionality built on the STAR Report. Acquired by CoStar in 2019, STR draws its benchmarking data from a sample of 77,000 participating properties with 10 million rooms around the world. STR Benchmarking provides new functions, including user and competitive set self-management as well as high-frequency updates to data. Future product enhancements, which are expected to begin rolling out later this year, include portfolio-level benchmarking, monthly P&L, average-length-of-stay data, and forward-looking occupancy.

A STRONG PERFORMANCE by U.S. hotels during the first quarter of 2022, along with other factors, are leading CBRE Hotels Research to raise its forecast for the rest of the year. The research firm now expects a full recovery in ADR in 2022 and in demand and RevPAR in 2023. First quarter RevPAR reached $72.20, up 61 percent from year earlier, despite a surge from the COVID-19 omicron variant, according to CBRE. RevPAR growth was driven by a 39 percent increase in ADR and a 16 percent increase in occupancy. ADR was 5 percent ahead of 2019's levels, marking the third consecutive quarter in which levels exceed the same period in 2019. These rising rates demonstrate that travelers aren't price-sensitive in many peak-demand markets.