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THE UPWARD MOVEMENT of ADR for U.S. hotels lifted the forecast for the market by STR and Tourism Economics. The travel research firms released the new forecast during the opening sessions of the Americas Lodging Investment Summit in Los Angeles on Monday. The recovery timeline laid out in the new forecast remains mostly the same as the previous forecast released in November, with ADR will near full recovery this year. RevPAR is anticipated to exceed 2019 levels in 2023, but when adjusted for inflation ADR and RevPAR are not projected to reach full recovery until after 2025. Occupancy is projected to surpass 2019 levels in 2023. "The industry recaptured 83 percent of pre-pandemic RevPAR levels in 2021, and momentum is expected to pick up after a slow start to this year," said Carter Wilson, STR's senior vice president of consulting. "With so much of that RevPAR recovery being led by leisure-driven ADR, however, it is important to keep an eye on the real versus the nominal. Terms of recovery are not playing out evenly across the board, and many hoteliers have had to raise rates to minimize the bottom-line hit from labor and supply shortages. We are anticipating inflation to remain higher throughout the first half of the year with a gradual leveling off during the third and fourth quarters. If that happens, and we avoid major setbacks with the pandemic, this year will certainly be one to watch with demand and occupancy also shaping up to hit significant levels during the second half."

IN ANOTHER SIGN of recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, this year's Super Bowl is expected to bring increases in hotel business to host city Los Angeles, according to STR. ADR and RevPAR are projected to reach the second-highest levels for any Super Bowl weekend on record. During the weekend of the game, Feb. 11 to 13, STR forecasts that ADR will reach $445 and RevPAR will be around $396 in the L.A. market. Occupancy is expected to hit 89 percent as fans flock in for the game. "Since July, the Los Angeles hotel market has consistently achieved monthly rates near or above pre-pandemic levels," said Blake Reiter, STR's director of custom forecasts. "Occupancy has been rapidly improving toward 2019 levels as well, but it hasn't reflected the same degree of recovery. We expect there will be, at least to a certain extent, a curtailing of occupancy because of COVID. Of course, if the NFL decides to switch venues as media reports have suggested, or implement more stringent protocols, L.A. hotel performance will certainly be among the ripple effects." Los Angeles's Super Bowl hotel occupancy is projected to outperform last year's venue, Tampa, Florida, which saw 82.4 percent occupancy when the home team, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, defeated the Kansas City Chiefs. However, it is well below the 92.8 percent Miami saw when it hosted the game in 2020, and also is lower than what L.A. saw over the comparable weekend period in 2020, 87.7 percent.

TWO BOUTIQUE HOTELS owned by Vision Hospitality Group, The Grady Louisville Downtown in Louisville, Kentucky, and the Kinley Cincinnati Downtown in Cincinnati, have won different categories of this year's StayBoutique Awards by the Boutique Lifestyle Leaders Association. Mitch Patel, the Chattanooga, Tennessee-based company's president and CEO, was a runner up for BLLA's Iconic Boutique Hotelier. The Grady, which opened in June 2021 and recently reopened after a renovation, took first place for two categories in the BLLA awards, Boutique Hotel Design Project and Boutique Hotel Under 100 Rooms. The Kinley, opened in October 2020, took second place for Boutique Hotel Design Project "We are honored to be recognized in this year's awards program, and we couldn't have done it without our interior design partners," Patel said. "For each of these hotels, we take pride in the historic renovations and thoughtful design work that has gone into making them what they are today."

THE AHLA FOUNDATION, is re-launching its ForWard program, created to advance women in leadership and ownership within the hotel industry, and plans to integrate the program with the recently acquired Castell Project, an organization focused on promoting women in hospitality leadership. Also, the foundation presented the 2023 Peggy Berg Castell Award to Julienne Smith, IHG Hotels & Resorts' chief development officer for the Americas. The integration of ForWard and the Castell Project will result in a unified platform offering resources, events, professional development, and community-building opportunities, the AHLA Foundation said in a statement. "There is tremendous opportunity for us to do more to celebrate, champion, and create community for women," said Anna Blue, president of AHLA Foundation, the charitable arm of the American Hotel and Lodging Association. "AHLA Foundation is uniquely positioned to collaborate across industry and invest in the women who are advancing hospitality."

U.S. HOTEL CONSTRUCTION increased slightly in December after 25 consecutive months of decline, according to STR. Projects in the later stages of development saw a reversal in their decline and luxury projects were up. There are 159,344 rooms in construction during the month, up 0.3 percent, over Dec. 2021. As many as 213,066 rooms are in the final planning state, an increase of 15 percent over last year. STR pipeline data added that 240,092 rooms are under planning, a decline of 15.6 percent. New York City, Phoenix and Dallas are set to see the largest supply percentage increases from current construction. The luxury and upscale segments would see the most supply. "While the overall pipeline continued to contract year over year, December showed strength in the later phases of development," said Alison Hoyt, STR's senior director of consulting. "Over the past year, we've seen late-stage pipeline rooms consistently decline from 2021 levels, while rooms in the planning phase often showed double-digit growth. We started to see a change in this pattern in November, when final planning rooms significantly jumped year over year and planning rooms came down pretty firmly. The same occurred in December, with the only difference being construction increasing slightly over 2021. When looking strictly at volume, the in-construction phase has been fairly stable throughout the year, remaining under 160,000 rooms and showing month-over-month increases from July through October and again in December."

OCCUPANCY FOR U.S. hotels is now expected to finish the year a little down from the previous forecast by STR and Tourism Economics. However, projections for ADR and RevPAR recovery remain on track in the data firms' final forecast of the year. RevPAR is still expected to fully recover this year on a nominal basis, but not until 2025 when adjusted for inflation, according to the new forecast. The updated forecast lowered occupancy by less than a percentage point for 2022, standing now at 62.7 percent compared to the previously forecasted 63 percent released in August. "As expected, group business travel has been much more aligned with pre-pandemic patterns, specifically in October when group demand hit a pandemic-era high," said Amanda Hite, STR president. "Leisure travel has maintained its strength since our previous forecast update, and we expect these strong demand trends in both group and leisure to continue through the fourth quarter. Bottom-line performance has also persisted, with our most recent data showing strong profit margins due to lower employment levels and reduced services. The challenges around labor continue to be a concern, as high levels of hospitality unemployment and more spending on contract labor are pushing labor costs on a per-available-room basis above 2019 levels. We continue to take inflation and the likely recession into consideration, but the hotel industry has continued to show resilience through these tougher times, thus the steadiness of our updated forecast."

DESPITE PROJECTIONS OF persistent inflation and a moderate economic recession, CBRE's November 2022 Hotel Horizons forecast calls for a 5.8 percent increase in RevPAR in 2023. This is up from CBRE's previous forecast of a 5.6 percent increase in RevPAR for 2023. Propelling CBRE's increased outlook for RevPAR is an expected 4.2 percent rise in ADR, driven in part by the continuation of above long-run average inflation. For 2023, CBRE is forecasting the Consumer Price Index in the U.S. to increase by 3.5 percent year over year. Inflation continues to have a mixed impact on the hotel industry, bolstering top-line growth while pressuring margins. Supply and Demand Inflation is also impacting development activity. The combination of rising construction material costs, a tight labor market, and high interest rates will serve to keep supply growth over the next five years 40 percent lower than historical trends. Instead of construction, we expect cash flows in the near term to be focused on debt reductions, renovations and remodels given the backlog of Capex that built up during the pandemic. Given its forecast for a 0.2 percent decline in 2023 gross domestic product, CBRE lowered its expectations for demand growth from 3.3 percent in their August 2022 forecasts to 2.9 percent in the November update. With the projected supply increase remaining at 1.2 percent for 2023, the net result is a reduction in CBRE's occupancy growth estimate for the year to 1.6 percent, down from the 2 percent increase previously forecast. The lowering of occupancy expectations will somewhat offset the enhanced outlook for ADR growth.

ATLANTA-BASED EV Hotels, a new technology-centric hotel brand founded by Ken Patel, has partnered with Spanish firm CLERHP to construct a luxury resort in the new Larimar City & Resort project in Punta Cana, the Dominican Republic. The 400-room hotel will be built on an area of nearly eight acres, the company said in a statement. Larimar City & Resort will be on the Promenade on the Farrallón de Verón, which has a view of Punta Cana, said Leonardo Padron Hermes, CEO of Blacklions International Group, a company associated with CLERHP in the development of real estate projects in the Dominican Republic. The area includes restaurants, clubs, shops and an 18-hole golf course. "After many years of working behind the scenes to develop a hotel brand that both innovates and revolutionized the industry, it is truly rewarding to now see EV make an impact across the globe. And believe me, we are just getting started," Patel said. "Larimar City & Resort will be one of the best tourist attractions around the globe and our team at EV is excited to be part of this Smart-City. Growth doesn't come with a single action. It is the consequence of persistence, courage, and hard work. What we are accomplishing here is to create an experience that brings hospitality back and gives it life again. Innovation is a team sport."

HAWKEYE HOTELS AND HOS Management recently sold three hotels in the Savannah, Georgia, area for approximately $100 million. Both companies have plans to continue to expand their development pipelines. The Montford Group and Opterra Capital purchased the Aloft Savannah Airport while Mission Hill and KSL Capital Partners bought the Fairfield Inn & Suites Downtown Savannah Historic District and the Aloft Savannah Historic District, according to Hawkeye, which is led by Ravi Patel as president. All three hotels have more than 400 rooms and each were developed by Savannah-based HOS and Hawkeye Hotels in the last 24 months. HOS and Hawkeye together have more than 40 hotel projects in the pipeline, including more than a dozen projects starting construction this year. Both have been actively buying and selling multiple assets in addition to developing new hotels, and last month Hawkeye opened The Le Meridien St. Louis Downtown in St. Louis.

REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT competition She Has a Deal (SHaD) started a 10-city tour of U.S. cities to raise equity capital under the name "SHaD Prosperity Fund I." The funds will support women-led hotel projects, a statement said. The tour kicks off in Miami on Feb. 11 and will be open to small groups of qualified individual investors, family offices, small entities and trusts. Cities on the tour include Cleveland, Phoenix, Dallas, New York, Atlanta, Chicago, as well as Oakland, California; Louisville, Kentucky; and Washington, D.C. It will finish in the first week of April. According to SHaD, each event will include a preview of the women-led hotel deals being pitched by participants in the 2022 She Has a Deal pitch competition. "Launching SHaD Prosperity Fund I is the next logical step in the SHaD mission. Now that we have created a powerful platform to expose more women to hotel ownership and educate them about the process, I want to ensure that capital is available for the women to close their hotel deals," said SHaD founder Tracy Prigmore. "This investment vehicle marries two of my passions: creating investment vehicles that open the doors of hotel investing to more people and increasing the number of women owning and developing hotels. The ability to create passive income for investors while leading social change is inspiring."

NEWCRESTIMAGE AND HOSPITALITY Capital Partners have acquired 11 hotels in seven states with a total of 1,551 rooms in a joint venture. Al Calhoun and Mark Fair at CBRE in Atlanta handled the transaction. The properties are 10 Courtyards and one Residence Inn in Georgia, Massachusetts, New York, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Texas and Virginia, according to NewcrestImage. Dallas-based NewcrestImage owns more than 70 hotels across the country with almost 8,000 rooms. Since its founding in 2013, the company has completed more than $3 billion in transactions involving almost 275 hotels with almost 30,000 hotel rooms in 130 communities across the country. "Our company has a strong appetite for solid investment opportunities," said Mehul Patel, NewcrestImage managing partner and CEO. "These properties and markets offer attractive potential for both profits and appreciation value." HCP and its principals Keith Mishkin and Primo Parmar have owned nearly 50 hotels in the western U.S., including The Saguaro Scottsdale in that Arizona city's historic Old Town area. Other projects include 25 golf courses through their associated company, Parks Legacy Project.

A STABLE ECONOMIC backdrop is expected to fuel a 10.7 percent year-over-year increase in the U.S. short-term rental industry in 2024, surpassing the 6.7 percent rise seen in 2023, according to AirDNA's 2024 outlook report. Moreover, AirDNA foresees balanced growth for the industry in 2024, marked by a projected 10.9 percent increase in supply expansion guided by rising demand for more sustainable market practices. "Approaching 2024, the industry anticipates balanced growth with a projected 10.9 percent increase in supply expansion," said Jamie Lane, senior vice president of Analytics at AirDNA. "Contrary to exaggerated reports of an STR 'collapse,' heightened market competition emphasizes the need for hosts and property managers to meticulously monitor data trends. This strategic approach is crucial for surpassing competitors and sustaining revenue, taking advantage of a strong economy and the growing preference of travelers for STR lodging."

ADR is projected to rise by 0.1 percentage points in 2024, with occupancy and RevPAR remaining unchanged from the previous forecast, according to STR and Tourism Economics' initial U.S. hotel forecast for 2024 at the Americas Lodging Investment Summit. Yet, 2025 projections for key performance metrics were revised downward due to stabilized long-term average trends: occupancy down 0.1 percentage points, ADR down 0.3 points and RevPAR down 0.5 ppts. "U.S. ADR and RevPAR reached record highs in 2023 with solid travel fundamentals and a big year for group business underpinning performance," said Amanda Hite, STR president. "We expect to see continued growth as fundamentals remain more favorable for the travel economy. The indicator that is especially important is the low unemployment rate among college-educated individuals, those most likely to travel for business and leisure." The STR and Tourism Economics forecast a rise in GOPPAR growth due to increased TRevPAR levels and stable labor costs. Among chain scales, luxury and upper upscale hotels are expected to see substantial cost increases, driven by growing group demand.

Stonehill CRE, the real estate arm of Stonehill, has finalized a $52 million senior loan agreement with Starpoint Properties to fund the construction of Lotus Point Apartments, a 245-unit multifamily development in Mesa, Arizona, within the Phoenix Metropolitan Statistical Area. The construction of this four-story building is scheduled for completion in the first quarter of 2025, Stonehill said in a statement. "This investment mirrors our sought-after strategy - a quality property with an experienced sponsor in a growing market," said Taylor Pike, senior vice president at Stonehill CRE. "Phoenix stands as a strong job growth market due to diverse employment opportunities. Single-family home development has not kept pace, and with rising mortgage rates, well-located multifamily projects will remain in high demand." This 6-acre site, adjacent to a retail center and within walking distance of the metro light rail, will provide studio, one-bedroom, and two-bedroom units, along with amenities such as a fitness center, clubhouse, co-working area, pool, and parking options, Stonehill said.

MARCH IS WOMEN'S History Month, a time to focus attention on women's role in business and society. It also is the second month for Wyndham Hotels & Resorts' new "Women Own the Room" program that aims to open the door for more women to achieve hotel ownership. Two of the first participants in the program are Trusha Patel, founder and CEO of Platinum Holdings in Austin, Texas, and Neha Jadhav of Chantilly, Virginia, founder of Luminous Hotel Management. Both women are opening dual-brand La Quinta and Hawthorn Suites hotels with assistance from WOTR assistance. Correcting an imbalance Wyndham launched WOTR in January in an effort to overcome the common barriers women face in developing, opening and running their own hotel. The program provides assistance with financial solutions, personalized operational support and networking and educational opportunities. Programs such as WOTR are needed to counter hospitality industry data that shows women are significantly underrepresented in hotel ownership, real estate, and investment funding roles, Wyndham said in a press release. The company cited the most recent annual report from the Castell Project, a nonprofit focused on promoting women in the industry, that found that while there are more women in the hospitality industry they still lag behind in leadership roles.

APPROXIMATELY 51 PERCENT of hospitality industry professionals participating in STR's Hospitality Industry Sentiment survey expressed optimism about their business confidence over the next two years. Respondents rated their confidence at "8" or higher on a 10-point scale. Analyzing the results over the survey's first year reveals a gradual, consistent decline in confidence ratings for each time span. Meanwhile, global recession fears have diminished since the last survey, STR said. Among various industry challenges, "concerns regarding a potential recession" saw the most significant drop between the last two surveys, ranking third behind labor costs and supply issues. Energy and utility costs are slightly increasing, while supply chain challenges and group demand issues are gradually diminishing. Regarding hotel performance, outlined trends influence demand forecasting expectations, the survey said. The percentage of respondents anticipating "strong improvement" or "some improvement" is gradually declining across all three hotel demand segments. A majority of experts still foresee growth in both business transient and group demand.

TOURISTS ARE PROJECTED to maintain or increase their travel spending in 2024 compared to the previous year, according to American Express Travel's "2024 Global Travel Trends Report". Approximately 84 percent of respondents from countries including the U.S., Australia, Canada, India, Japan, Mexico, and the U.K. anticipate spending the same or more, with 77 percent prioritizing the quality of their travel experience over cost considerations. "Travelers are focused on creating the right itineraries and building memories, whether that means booking a trip to see a favorite sports team compete or taking a once-in-a-lifetime expedition cruise," said Audrey Hendley, American Express Travel's president. "Our 'Global Travel Trends Report' sheds light on what is driving global travel bookings and provides inspiration for where to go next." About 65 percent of respondents express greater interest in embarking on a major trip in 2024 compared to previous years, the report said. Additionally, 72 percent prefer saving money for a major trip over spending it on social outings with friends. More than half of respondents intend to save for a major trip over a span of six months to two years.

U.S. HOTELS ARE likely to report improved RevPAR growth in the second half of the year, following a weak first quarter, according to CBRE. International tourism and other economic factors are expected to provide a boost to performance. A 2 percent increase in RevPAR growth is forecasted for 2024, down from the 3 percent estimated in February. RevPAR is now expected to grow by 3 percent for the remainder of the year, driven by international tourists, holiday travel, and limited supply growth. It is projecting GDP growth of 2.3 percent and average inflation of 3.2 percent in 2024. The performance of the lodging industry is closely tied to the strength of the economy, as there is typically a strong correlation between GDP and RevPAR growth, CBRE said in a statement.