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APPROXIMATELY 51 PERCENT of hospitality industry professionals participating in STR's Hospitality Industry Sentiment survey expressed optimism about their business confidence over the next two years. Respondents rated their confidence at "8" or higher on a 10-point scale. Analyzing the results over the survey's first year reveals a gradual, consistent decline in confidence ratings for each time span. Meanwhile, global recession fears have diminished since the last survey, STR said. Among various industry challenges, "concerns regarding a potential recession" saw the most significant drop between the last two surveys, ranking third behind labor costs and supply issues. Energy and utility costs are slightly increasing, while supply chain challenges and group demand issues are gradually diminishing. Regarding hotel performance, outlined trends influence demand forecasting expectations, the survey said. The percentage of respondents anticipating "strong improvement" or "some improvement" is gradually declining across all three hotel demand segments. A majority of experts still foresee growth in both business transient and group demand.

U.S. HOTELS ARE likely to report improved RevPAR growth in the second half of the year, following a weak first quarter, according to CBRE. International tourism and other economic factors are expected to provide a boost to performance. A 2 percent increase in RevPAR growth is forecasted for 2024, down from the 3 percent estimated in February. RevPAR is now expected to grow by 3 percent for the remainder of the year, driven by international tourists, holiday travel, and limited supply growth. It is projecting GDP growth of 2.3 percent and average inflation of 3.2 percent in 2024. The performance of the lodging industry is closely tied to the strength of the economy, as there is typically a strong correlation between GDP and RevPAR growth, CBRE said in a statement.

GLOBAL BUSINESS TRAVEL spending is forecast to reach $1.48 trillion by the end of 2024, surpassing the previous record of $1.43 trillion in 2019, according to a recent study by the Global Business Travel Association. Spending is projected to exceed $2 trillion by 2028, indicating strong growth for the business travel sector. The 2024 GBTA Business Travel Index Outlook, supported by Visa, found that economic stability and lingering pent-up demand are driving growth, reassuring CEOs and CFOs to send their teams back on the road for business meetings. "We are witnessing the expected rebound in the sector, reflecting the resilience and adaptability of businesses and the value of business travel worldwide," said Suzanne Neufang, GBTA's CEO. "With projected spending expected to continue to increase through 2028, the future of business travel looks promising. However, we must remain vigilant and adaptive to potential headwinds in this period of stabilization, as factors such as changing economic conditions, technological advancements and sustainability developments will also shape the sector ahead."

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U.S. HOTEL OCCUPANCY has reached an all-time high in the fourth week of December though the numbers came in lower than the previous week, according to STR. Christmas Day occupancy was 47.2 percent, up from the previous high of 47 percent recorded in 2015. Occupancy was 44.3 percent for the week ended Dec. 25, down from 53.8 percent the week before, and down 8.7 percent when compared to 2019. ADR was $129.67 for the week, up from $121.87 the week before and an increase of 0.5 percent from 2019. RevPAR reached $57.46, down from $65.61 the week before, and dropped 8.3 percent from two years ago. According to STR, a steeper decline during the week from 2019 levels was due to the fact that Christmas fell on a Wednesday two years ago and allowed for an earlier return to non-holiday weekend levels that year. "While Omicron-related closures and service disruptions affected performance in New York City, overall U.S. occupancy was less impacted," STR said.

AS A RESULT of a larger impact from the Omicron variant, U.S. hotel occupancy worsened in the second week of January in comparison with pre-pandemic levels, according to STR. However, occupancy was higher than the previous week on an absolute basis. Occupancy was 48.8 percent for the week ending Jan. 15, up from 45.4 percent the week before and down 16.3 percent from the comparable week in 2019. ADR was $122.12 for the week, up from $119.92 the week before, but down 1.6 percent from two years ago. RevPAR reached $59.57, up from $54.47 the prior week and down 17.6 percent from the same period two years ago. According to STR, ADR and RevPAR were up week over week and when indexed to 2019.

MORE THAN 109 million people are expected to travel over the Christmas and New Year's holidays, most of them on the road as gas prices drop, according to AAA Travel. The COVID-19 Omicron variant is having an impact, primarily to lower gas prices. The number of travelers going 50 miles or more between Dec. 23 and Jan. 2 is a 34 percent increase from 2020, AAA said in its travel forecast. That extra 27.7 million people traveling brings this year's numbers to 92 percent of 2019 levels. "Americans who canceled their vacations in 2020 want to gather with family and friends for the holidays this year, although they will still be mindful of the pandemic and the new omicron variant," said Paula Twidale, senior vice president of AAA Travel. "With vaccines widely available, conditions are much different, and many people feel a greater level of comfort with travel." As in years past, driving remains the most popular form of travel, with more than 100 million planning to get behind the wheel. More than 6 million people are expected to travel by air, while 3 million people are booking buses, trains and cruises.

AS THE HOLIDAY season dwindles into the past, so did U.S. hotels' performance, according to STR. Occupancy dropped, dragging ADR and RevPAR with it. Occupancy was 45.4 percent for the week ending Jan. 8, down from 54.3 percent the week before and down 14.9 percent from the comparable week in 2019. ADR was $119.92 for the week, down from $157.91 week over week and a 4.8 percent drop from 2019. RevPAR reached $54.47, a decline from $85.74 the prior week and down 19 percent from 2019. "Occupancy fell week over week because of a slowdown in leisure demand and a continued absence of business travel due to a Saturday holiday," STR said. "While ADR also dropped from an all-time high the previous week, the metric came in at roughly 95 percent of the 2019 comparable." Occupancy did not increase over 2019 levels for any of STR's top 25 markets, but Dallas came closest, falling shy by 6.6 percent with 55.1 percent.

AS MANY AS 84 percent of business travelers in the U.S. expect to take at least one trip to attend conferences, conventions or trade shows in the next six months, according to a survey from the U.S. Travel Association. They also expect to resume traveling at a slightly slower pace, about 1.6 trips per month, compared to 1.7 monthly trips pre-pandemic. The Quarterly Business Travel Tracker by J.D. Power said that less than one in 10 U.S. business travelers are uncertain if they would travel in the next six months. Meetings and events are not occurring and corporate policies restricting business travel are listed as reasons behind this. USTA forecasts that business travel spending was still down 60 percent from pre-pandemic levels in 2021. However, the latest data shows a clear shift in American business travelers' desire to return to in-person meetings.

WHEN IT COMES to growing hotel revenue, size does not matter. Economy hotels and micro-inventory properties are experiencing one of the biggest booms in recent years, thanks partly to a massive resurgence in small group travel, changing economic trends, and the staying power of global "return to travel". CBRE noted economy and midscale hotels recovered to 2019 performance levels by 2021, and properties with fewer rooms may benefit from lower operating costs when compared to their big-box brethren-though they also tend to have fewer resources with which to hire revenue professionals. Revenue managers are driving the charge for better operating returns. Many are taking the lessons they learned from their success at larger hotels and applying these truths to the industry's smaller properties. These revenue managers leverage new technology and strategies, options that small hotels with smaller, cross-functional staff haven't fully embraced. However, competition among economy hotels and properties tends to be fierce, requiring new action, especially with recent economic pressures and a downward 2023 RevPAR forecast of 0.2 percent in recent data shared by Tourism Economics . Modern revenue management practices and technology can provide these hotels with many benefits and significant competitive advantages. Small hotels need to avoid the erratic rate shifts of the past and capitalize on new trends as they emerge. By embracing strong revenue management systems and discipline in these properties, operators can realize greater control over a typically inconsistent space. Room Enough for Revenue The most common misconception about revenue management's place in hospitality is that it is the domain of large or full-service hotels. This is simply not the case today. No two hotels are the same, in practice, with key differences always existing between the layout of a property, its location, third-party partnerships, and so on. Every hotel has different r

BEST WESTERN HOTELS & Resort executives say the company is riding a wave of success that brought its members to Hawaii for its 2023 Annual Convention. Best Western benefited from budgeting for a forecasted recession that now seems unlikely this year, and saw continued growth domestically and internationally with India "top of mind." Other topics addressed during the convention at Hilton Hawaiian Village in Honolulu last week include the strategy to be followed by Joelle Park, Best Western's newly hired senior vice president and chief marketing officer. Also, the company's new program to advance women in hotel ownership was getting under way. Making waves Larry Cuculic, president and CEO, opened the conference giving details on the company's performance. "The Big Wave reflects the surge that BWH Hotels has made in the travel industry and how we are making 'big waves' together all over the world," Cuculic said. "Our Big Wave has rippled through our organization, our industry, and our lives, touching our guests, our communities, and leaving a rich legacy of success."

ANNUAL CHANGES IN U.S. hotel utility costs and in the Consumer Price Index, or inflation, have historically proven to be strongly correlated. As of August 2022, CBRE is forecasting CPI growth to be 7.7 percent in 2022, followed by another 3.6 percent in 2023. Since inflation has averaged just 2.2 percent since 2000, these inflation projections have hoteliers concerned about operating costs. Given that rising energy costs are a significant driver of the current rise in CPI, hotel managers are especially worried about utility department expenses. Over the past 50 years, utility department expenses have averaged between 3 and 4 percent of total revenue, indicating that hotel managers have been successfully controlling energy costs in the face of fluctuating business volumes. This is particularly commendable given the highly fixed nature of utility expenses. To provide some context to the current challenging environment, we studied recent trends in hotel utility department expenses. The data come from a sample of more than 2,800 U.S. hotels that reported utility department expenses each year from 2015 through 2021 for CBRE's annual "Trends in the Hotel Industry" survey. In 2021 the properties in the sample averaged 209 rooms in size, with an annual occupancy rate of 54.2 percent and an average daily rate of $152.70.

INTERNATIONAL INBOUND TRAVEL is expected to slow down in the fall after surging over the summer, according to the latest U.S. Travel Association forecast. USTA also expects it may take until 2025 for the travel segment to recover to pre-pandemic levels. Inbound travel recovery picked up in summer and reached a pre-pandemic high of 35 percent below 2019 levels in July 2022, said U.S. Travel Association. It improved from a 41 percent decrease in May and declines of more than 50 percent earlier in 2022. The latest report by Aaron Szyf, economist, USTA, said that inbound travel recovery continued from Europe and Latin America in the past few months, which was 22 percent below 2019 levels in July. Meanwhile, Asian markets declined 66 percent in July, largely due to stagnation from China and a very slow return from Japan.

STEERED BY SEVERAL factors, including the strong performance by several hotel brands, the Baird/STR Hotel Stock Index increased 1.4 percent in April to a level of 5,430, STR said in a statement. Growth is slowing, STR said, but will continue for the next quarter or more. "Hotel stocks increased in April, and the gains were driven by outperformance from the global hotel brands," said Michael Bellisario, senior hotel research analyst and director at Baird. "RevPAR trends have remained solid in the face of growing macroeconomic uncertainties and continued banking turmoil, and first-quarter earnings generally have surprised to the upside with positive full-year estimate revisions occurring. The Hotel REITs declined more than 2 percent in April and underperformed the RMZ, while the global hotel brands gained just over 2.5 percent and outperformed the S&P 500's return by 100 bps." According to STR, the Baird/STR Hotel Stock Index fell slightly behind the S&P 500, which was up 1.5 percent in April but came in above the MSCI US REIT Index, up 0.7 percent. The hotel brand sub-index jumped 2.5 percent from March to 10,178, while the hotel REIT sub-index dropped 2.6 percent to 1,045, it added. "The industry continues to revert to normal patterns and calendar shifts with growth slowing as forecasted," said Amanda Hite, STR president. "Monthly demand fell year over year for the first time since the recovery began in April 2021, but that decrease can be attributed to an extra Sunday on the calendar this year versus last. Without the extra Sunday, which is historically a low-performance night, demand would have been slightly up from last year. ADR, on the other hand, grew 3.4 percent, while RevPAR was up 1.8 percent - the lowest increase of the recovery thus far. Despite slowing growth, we expect the industry to see further gains throughout the summer and fall."

ACCORDING TO THE March 2022 edition of CBRE's Hotel Horizons national forecast report, the total revenue for a typical U.S. hotel is not expected to return to pre-COVID 2019 nominal dollars until 2023. Accordingly, hotel owners and operators continue to seek ways to control expenses, and that can include property taxes. One potential reduction opportunity is property taxes, according to an article from Robert Mandelbaum, director of research information services for CBRE Hotels Research, and Mark Whitney, managing director of CBRE's Property & Transaction Tax Services platform. Based on a sample of 3,400 hotels from CBRE's Trends in the Hotel Industry database, U.S. hotel property tax expenditures declined by 13 percent from 2020 to 2021. This decline put 2021 property taxes 9.9 percent below 2019 levels. Unfortunately, this compares unfavorably to the 41.3 percent decline in revenues and 57.4 percent falloff in profits during the same period. For this analysis, profits are defined as earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, or EBITDA. Relationship to Profits Compared with other forms of real estate, hotel financial performance is relatively volatile. Because of the lack of long-term leases, hotel revenues and profits will react almost instantaneously to changes in the economy. This was evident during 2020 when we observed a sudden 64.3 percent drop in revenues along with a 109.4 percent decline in EBITDA in reaction to the pandemic.

WORKFORCE MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE producer Unifocus recently marked its 25th anniversary of doing business. The company recently acquired operations management platform Knowcross and celebrated several other milestones it has met since its founding in 1998. Unifocus was founded in the same year Google started up, the Digital Millennium Copyright Act was released and the first WiFi standards were set. The company's labor management system, the first of its kind according to Unifocus, includes scheduling automation and, with the Knowcross acquisition, real-time data for forecasting, scheduling, task execution and tracking of guest and employee satisfaction. "Twenty-five years of serving the hospitality industry and counting," says Moneesh Arora, Unifocus chief executive. "We're filled with gratitude for our clients who've been part of this journey, as well as our incredibly dedicated team that makes our vision a reality. Our success stems from our commitment to truly understanding the needs of hoteliers, which continually inspires us to enhance and innovate our hotel operations technology."

ECONOMIC HEADWINDS AND geopolitical concerns are expected to affect U.S. hotel performance in 2024, according to PwC. The issues include continuing high interest rates and the Israel-Palestine conflict. Occupancy levels have consistently decreased over the past seven months compared to the same period in 2022. This downward trend is anticipated to persist for the remainder of this year and extend into at least the first quarter of 2024. However, PwC forecasts a 63 percent annual occupancy rate for US hotels this year. Hotels in the U.S. experienced a weakening in leisure demand during the latter part of this year, as global vacation destinations reopened, and leisure travelers regained confidence in traveling abroad, PwC said in its latest report titled U.S. Hospitality Directions: November 2023. Moreover, gains in individual and group business travel haven't completely counteracted this softening.

THE REVPAR OF hotels in Phoenix is forecasted to reach $419 for Super Bowl weekend of February 10-12, the second-highest level for the event, according to STR. As the city also hosts Phoenix Open this week, the Friday through Sunday night occupancy may touch 94 percent and ADR to hit $445. According to STR, a unique volume of demand would push occupancy slightly higher than Phoenix's last host year in 2015 (93.7 percent) even though supply increased by 11.7 percent this year. The ADR level would rank third among host markets behind Miami in 2020 and San Francisco in 2016. "Phoenix's jump in RevPAR during its last Super Bowl host year was staggering, and this time around will be no different with big-time growth contribution from both occupancy and ADR," said Isaac Collazo, STR's vice president of analytics. "Demand speaks for itself, especially with consumer behavior around the event free of pandemic concerns-unlike the last two Super Bowls. Phoenix's ADR situation has different influences than recent host markets given inflation and having less upper-tier supply than a Los Angeles or Miami." The overall Phoenix market comprises 544 hotels with 70,488 rooms.

APPROXIMATELY 43.8 MILLION Americans will travel 50 miles or more from home, surpassing pre-pandemic figures, according to a forecast by AAA. This represents a 4 percent increase from last year and approaches the 2005 record of 44 million Memorial Day weekend travelers. A record 38.4 million are expected to drive, marking the highest number since AAA began tracking in 2000. "We haven't seen Memorial Day weekend travel numbers like these in almost 20 years," said Paula Twidale, AAA Travel's senior vice president. "We're projecting an additional one million travelers this holiday weekend compared to 2019, which not only means we're exceeding pre-pandemic levels but also signals a very busy summer travel season ahead." The number of drivers this year is up 4 percent compared to last year and 1.9 percent higher than in 2019, the auto club said. Traveling by car is appealing for many people because of the convenience and flexibility it provides.

IDEAS, A SAS company specializing in hospitality revenue management software, recently integrated nearly 2,000 properties with the Oracle Hospitality Integration Platform. This connects their RMS solutions, including IDeaS G3 RMS, with Oracle's OPERA Cloud platform, accessible via OHIP and the Oracle Cloud Marketplace, the companies said in a joint statement. "The hospitality industry has long craved faster data exchanges and more capabilities to handle ever-increasing data volumes, and OHIP delivers precisely that," said Klaus Kohlmayr, IDeaS' chief evangelist and development officer. "By accelerating data exchange and efficiently transmitting the staggering 12 billion pricing decisions IDeaS processes daily, OHIP empowers us to innovate faster as partners with Oracle. This goes beyond pricing and forecasting. It unlocks the true potential of data-driven revenue management, allowing hoteliers to make smarter decisions and achieve optimal results." The two companies share nearly 10,000 clients, the statement said. IDeaS is connecting 50 to 100 hotels per week, allowing for faster implementation of future capabilities and additional solutions.