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AN ESTIMATED 54.6 million people will travel 50 miles or more from home this Thanksgiving, according to AAA Travel, 1.5 percent more than last year and 98 percent of pre-pandemic volumes. AAA is projecting this year will be the third busiest for Thanksgiving travel since AAA started tracking in 2000. Continuing a years-long trend, most travelers, nearly 49 million, will drive to their holiday destinations between Nov. 23 to 27, according to AAA. That number is up 0.4 percent from 2021 but still 2.5 percent below 2019 levels. "Families and friends are eager to spend time together this Thanksgiving, one of the busiest for travel in the past two decades," says Paula Twidale, AAA's Senior Vice President of Travel. "Plan ahead and pack your patience, whether you're driving or flying."

AS MANY AS 47.9 million people will travel 50 miles or more from home over the Independence Day weekend from June 30 to July 4, an increase of 3.7 percent over 2021, according to AAA Travel. It added that car travel will set a new record, despite historically high gas prices, with 42 million people hitting the road mainly due to recent issues with air travel and ongoing concerns of cancelations and delays. Independence Day will be the second busiest since 2000, as travel volumes continue to trend upwards, AAA said in a statement. However, the share of air travel will be the lowest since 2011. According to AAA, 46.2 million people traveled during Independence Day last year and the number was 49 million in 2019, before the pandemic.

OCCUPANCY PROJECTIONS ARE dropping while ADR projections are rising in a new forecast for U.S. hotels by STR and Tourism Economics. RevPAR is still expected to recover fully on a nominal basis this year, according to the forecast released Thursday at STR's 14th Annual Hotel Data Conference in Nashville. However, RevPAR is still expected to take until 2025 to recover when adjusted for inflation, according to the forecast. For 2022, RevPAR is now expected to average $93 compared to the projection of $92 released in June, when projected nominal RevPAR recovery was set in 2023. The occupancy projection for the year was lowered to 64.6 percent for the year and the ADR projection rose to $148. The updated forecast adds a little more than $2 to the ADR projection for both 2022 and 2023, and occupancy was lowered by less than a percentage point for each year.

U.S. HOTEL CONSTRUCTION declined for the seventh consecutive month in June, according to STR. Rooms in construction in New York City and Nashville represent a significant percentage of existing supply in those markets. Though at a slower pace, planning activity increases across the U.S. and developers are showing interest in Miami, Nashville and Phoenix, the report said. According to STR, there are 146,198 rooms under construction in the U.S. in June, down 20.1 percent when compared to same period last year. As many as 178,809 rooms are at final planning during the month, decreased 11.3 percent from last year and 281,190 rooms are at planning phase, an increase of 6.1 percent from June 2021. "The U.S. hotel pipeline continues to decelerate as we enter the second half of the year," said Carter Wilson, senior vice president of consulting, STR. "The continued increases in debt costs combined with the ongoing supply chain disruptions will likely delay projects from breaking ground this year, which will lead to a further decline in rooms in construction. On a national basis, new supply will not be a significant headwind for the future." New York leads the major markets in rooms in construction at 13,568 rooms in June, up 10.8 percent compared to last year, followed by Nashville with 3,939 rooms, up 7 percent, Phoenix with 4,388 rooms, an increase of 6.3 percent over last year, Atlanta with 5,991 rooms, up 5.5 percent and Detroit with 2,382 rooms, an increase of 5.1 percent over June 2021.

DALLAS LEADS THE U.S. hotel construction pipeline for the fourth consecutive quarter, according to Lodging Econometrics. Among brands, Marriott International led the pipeline. Dallas had a record 173 projects with 20,707 rooms in the second quarter of this year, followed by Atlanta with 140 projects containing 18,131 rooms, Los Angeles with 124 projects with 20,365 rooms, New York, with 113 projects with 19,238 rooms and Phoenix with 108 projects containing 14,964 rooms, Marriott had 1,355 projects with 167,034 rooms, up 4 percent by projects year-over-year, tops the pipeline during the period. The Q2 2022 U.S. Construction Pipeline Trend Report said that major markets and popular tourist destinations in the U.S. reported highest occupancy rates since the pandemic began in early 2020 in the second quarter mainly due to robust leisure travel, group, and international travel. New York City with 78 projects with 13,063 rooms, Atlanta with 25 projects containing 3,905 rooms, Dallas with 25 projects with 3,725 rooms, Phoenix with 23 projects with 4,955 rooms and Los Angeles with 22 projects with 3,606 rooms are the top five markets with the most projects under construction during the end of June. They account for 22 percent of rooms under construction in the U.S.

STEERED BY SEVERAL factors, including the strong performance by several hotel brands, the Baird/STR Hotel Stock Index increased 1.4 percent in April to a level of 5,430, STR said in a statement. Growth is slowing, STR said, but will continue for the next quarter or more. "Hotel stocks increased in April, and the gains were driven by outperformance from the global hotel brands," said Michael Bellisario, senior hotel research analyst and director at Baird. "RevPAR trends have remained solid in the face of growing macroeconomic uncertainties and continued banking turmoil, and first-quarter earnings generally have surprised to the upside with positive full-year estimate revisions occurring. The Hotel REITs declined more than 2 percent in April and underperformed the RMZ, while the global hotel brands gained just over 2.5 percent and outperformed the S&P 500's return by 100 bps." According to STR, the Baird/STR Hotel Stock Index fell slightly behind the S&P 500, which was up 1.5 percent in April but came in above the MSCI US REIT Index, up 0.7 percent. The hotel brand sub-index jumped 2.5 percent from March to 10,178, while the hotel REIT sub-index dropped 2.6 percent to 1,045, it added. "The industry continues to revert to normal patterns and calendar shifts with growth slowing as forecasted," said Amanda Hite, STR president. "Monthly demand fell year over year for the first time since the recovery began in April 2021, but that decrease can be attributed to an extra Sunday on the calendar this year versus last. Without the extra Sunday, which is historically a low-performance night, demand would have been slightly up from last year. ADR, on the other hand, grew 3.4 percent, while RevPAR was up 1.8 percent - the lowest increase of the recovery thus far. Despite slowing growth, we expect the industry to see further gains throughout the summer and fall."

ACCORDING TO THE March 2022 edition of CBRE's Hotel Horizons national forecast report, the total revenue for a typical U.S. hotel is not expected to return to pre-COVID 2019 nominal dollars until 2023. Accordingly, hotel owners and operators continue to seek ways to control expenses, and that can include property taxes. One potential reduction opportunity is property taxes, according to an article from Robert Mandelbaum, director of research information services for CBRE Hotels Research, and Mark Whitney, managing director of CBRE's Property & Transaction Tax Services platform. Based on a sample of 3,400 hotels from CBRE's Trends in the Hotel Industry database, U.S. hotel property tax expenditures declined by 13 percent from 2020 to 2021. This decline put 2021 property taxes 9.9 percent below 2019 levels. Unfortunately, this compares unfavorably to the 41.3 percent decline in revenues and 57.4 percent falloff in profits during the same period. For this analysis, profits are defined as earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, or EBITDA. Relationship to Profits Compared with other forms of real estate, hotel financial performance is relatively volatile. Because of the lack of long-term leases, hotel revenues and profits will react almost instantaneously to changes in the economy. This was evident during 2020 when we observed a sudden 64.3 percent drop in revenues along with a 109.4 percent decline in EBITDA in reaction to the pandemic.

ZERO-BASED BUDGETING is essential for hotels amid near- and long-term volatility, according to a blog from HotStats. The blog also suggested that hoteliers need to turn to other futureproofing or future-cushioning methods. In a recent blog post, Michael Grove, COO, HotStats said that zero-based budgeting, a method of budgeting in which all expenses must be justified for each new period starting from a zero base, is very necessary given the fluidity of the global economy and, ultimately, its impact on hotel operations. At the recent 2022 M3 Partners meeting, Grove first illustrated the pandemic's effect on worldwide profits and how it's changed the landscape. "It's worth reminding ourselves of the importance and magnitude of the U.S. hotel industry's share on the global scale, which has only grown during the pandemic," Grove said in the article. According to the blog post, almost half of global profits are produced in the U.S. and that share only rose as the pandemic slackened. "A massive 47 percent of hotel profits are achieved in the U.S., up 6.6 percentage points since 2019, the result of myriad variables, including a large domestic market and staycation trend," Grove said in the post. "Meanwhile, severe lockdowns and restrictions in Europe and Asia-Pacific sent their percentages down as the Middle East received a boost in the fourth quarter 2021 from Expo 2020 in Dubai."

U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE dipped in the first week of July when compared to the week before mainly due to decline in demand on account of the Independence Day holiday, according to STR. STR predicted that occupancy and demand are likely to fall again for a week before strengthening in the remaining weeks of July. Occupancy in the week before the holiday fell by more than four percentage points with most of the losses beginning on Wednesday and continuing into the weekend. Since 2000, the fourth of July holiday has fallen on a Monday seven times, including in 2021 and in 2016. Occupancy was 67.3 percent for the week ending July 2, down from 72.3 percent the week before and dropped 2.9 percent from 2019. ADR was $153.32 for the week, declined from $157.05 the week before and increased 19.7 percent from three years ago. RevPAR reached $103.24 during the week down from $113.55 the week before and up 23.1 percent from 2019.

NOBLE INVESTMENT GROUP in Atlanta has acquired the Hilton Garden Inn Boise Downtown. The transaction caps more than $1 billion investment over the past year, according to a statement. The 132-room hotel is near the city's leisure and business centers, which includes the Idaho State Capitol, Boise State University, Jack's Urban Meeting Place, Idaho Central Arena, and the Boise Centre, according to Noble, which is led by Mit Shah as CEO. Hotel amenities include an indoor pool, 4,098 square feet of meeting space and it is pet friendly. "The Boise market demonstrates the key macro trends we are looking for in cities which we believe will outperform as we enter a new lodging cycle," said Dustin Fisher, Noble's senior vice president. "This acquisition aligns with our strategy to acquire high-quality, well-located assets in growth markets poised to benefit from the ongoing recovery in travel."

THE BAIRD/STR HOTEL Stock Index jumped 16.4 percent in the first month of 2023, according to STR. A drop in recession fears and other factors gave investor confidence a boost, the research firms said. In January, the Baird/STR Index surpassed both the S&P 500, up 6.2 percent and the MSCI US REIT Index, increased 10.5 percent, STR said in a report. The index dropped 10 percent in December, and it was down 15 percent for 2022. According to STR, the Hotel Brand sub-index increased 16.2 percent from December to 10,342, while the Hotel REIT sub-index rose 17.1 percent to 1,216. "Hotel stocks rebounded sharply in January and were significant outperformers as the back-and-forth recessionary concerns once again subsided to start the year," said Michael Bellisario, senior hotel research analyst and director at Baird. "Industry-wide RevPAR trends finished the year on a strong note despite tougher calendar comparisons and weather-related travel disruptions in December. Several Hotel REITs provided fourth-quarter operational updates, and performance generally was in line with prior expectations. More broadly, investor sentiment has improved, which boosted stock prices across the board in January, but the macroeconomic indicators have remained mixed."

GOPPAR FOR U.S. hotels in February exceeded the levels of the pre-pandemic comparable time period and was the highest since October 2022, according to STR's February 2023 Profit & Loss data. EBITDA was the only key bottom-line metric on a per-available-room basis to come in lower than February 2019, STR said in a statement. GOPPAR reached $77.37 for the month, up 1.6 percent over the same month in 2019, TRevPAR stood at $217.20, up 3.7 percent, and EBITDA PAR was $51.63, down 0.6 percent against February 2019. Labor costs were $73.70, a 2.9 percent increase. "The profit-and-loss metrics followed typical industry trends, improving from the prior month," said Raquel Ortiz, STR's director of financial performance. "Both GOPPAR and GOP margins were the highest since last fall, while profit margins came in just one percentage point below 2019. Profit margins for limited-service hotels are further behind in recovery than full service, likely due to increasing labor costs that bear heavier weight on the bottom line." "An increase in top-line group demand is beginning to show in the bottom line, as catering and banquet revenues are inching closer to 2019 levels and meeting space rentals and services charges surpassed that threshold. On a per-operating-room basis, nearly all F&B revenues outpaced the pre-pandemic comparables," Ortiz added. Of the major markets, 10 realized both GOPPAR and TRevPAR levels higher than the 2019 comparables, the statement said. "February was a slower month for markets that are more dependent on groups and conventions, such as Atlanta, San Francisco and Minneapolis," Ortiz further said. "Warmer markets have remained at the top, with Phoenix showing the highest TRevPAR recovery and second highest GOPPAR recovery for the month, helped by peak season and Super Bowl LVII."

THE U.S. HOTEL construction pipeline was slightly up at the end of the first quarter of 2022, according to Lodging Econometrics. Dallas was the top U.S. market for building. The pipeline stood at 5,090 projects containing 606,302 rooms, up 2 percent by projects, but down 3 percent by rooms, during the period. There are 961 projects with 128,784 rooms currently under construction in the first quarter, down 27 percent by projects and 28 percent by rooms compared to 2021, stated the latest trend report by LE. There are 1,911 projects with 223,030 rooms are scheduled to start in the next 12 months, up 2 percent by projects and 3 percent by rooms. Projects and rooms in early planning reached a record high in the first quarter, with 2,218 projects containing 254,488 rooms, up 24 percent by projects and 12 percent by rooms, compared to a year ago.

MARKING 50 YEARS in the hotel business, Red Roof held its annual brand conference at the Broadmoor Resort in Colorado Springs, Colorado, Nov. 11 to 13. During the conference, the company announced a new partnership with software company HotelKey to install a multi-functional, cloud-based system in its more than 675 properties nationwide. Other news from the conference included details of the company's financial position, which George Limbert, Red Roof president, said is strong. Company officials also discussed Red Roof's new dual brand development prototype, other partnerships and the latest charity efforts of the company's Purpose With Heart. "Red Roof delivered record revenue which is a testament to our resilience and ability to anticipate market trends," Limbert said. "Our financial position is strong, travelers are back and our owners and operators are exceeding performance expectations."

THE U.S. HOTEL construction pipeline grew 9 percent by both projects and rooms year-over-year, according to the latest U.S. Construction Pipeline Trend Report from Lodging Econometrics. It stood at 5,545 projects with 658,207 rooms at the close of the first quarter of 2023. Meanwhile, the hotel construction pipeline in the top 25 markets in the U.S. also registered year-over-year growth in the first quarter. Dallas had a record 184 projects with 21,810 rooms at the close of the first quarter, followed by Atlanta with 144 projects containing 18,242 rooms, Los Angeles tally stood at 118 projects with 19,066 rooms, Phoenix with 117 projects with 16,100 rooms and Nashville had 115 projects containing 15, 354 rooms, LE report revealed. In another report, LE analysts also detailed the leading franchise companies and their brands in the construction pipeline at the close of the first quarter. Marriott International tops the charts with 1,499 projects containing 181,377 rooms, followed closely by Hilton Worldwide, with a record-high count of 1,436 projects with 161,359 rooms, and then InterContinental Hotels Group (IHG) with 809 projects containing 80,679 rooms. Combined, these three franchise companies comprise 68 percent of the projects in the total U.S. pipeline, LE said.

The index decreased 12.6 percent year-to-date through the first eight months of 2022. In August it also surpassed both the S&P 500, down 4.2 percent, and the MSCI US REIT Index, which dropped 6.1 percent. Also, the hotel brand sub-index fell 2.3 percent from July to 8,959, while the hotel REIT sub-index dropped 3.7 percent to 1,143. "Hotel stocks took a breather in August after July's sharp rebound. Despite the slight decline in stock prices, both the Global Hotel Brands and Hotel REITs outperformed their respective benchmarks in August," said Michael Bellisario, senior hotel research analyst and director at Baird. "Hotel trends have remained solid throughout the summer months despite all the capital markets volatility and macroeconomic uncertainties. However, investors appear somewhat skeptical about the prospects for a significant recovery in business transient travel post-Labor Day, and hotel stocks appear to be discounting this relatively conservative fundamental expectation, in our opinion."

WYNDHAM HOTELS & RESORTS now has a mobile tipping solution for its U.S. and Canadian franchisees, the company said in a statement. Developed by Béné, the platform enables guests to tip hotel team members digitally via their preferred mobile device. According to consulting firm McKinsey, 82 percent of Americans are now using digital payments, Wyndham said in its statement. The trend was accelerated by the pandemic, said Scott Strickland, Wyndham's chief information officer, and he expects it will only continue in the coming years. "Having previously empowered our franchisees to accept digital, contactless payment for stays at their hotels, the next logical step was to find a solution that allows guests to recognize housekeepers, wait staff and other frontline team members in a similar fashion," Strickland said. "This platform does exactly that and at virtually no cost to franchisees."

NOBLE INVESTMENT GROUP recently acquired two hotels in Savannah, Georgia. The hotels are the Hampton Inn Savannah Historic District and Holiday Inn Express Savannah Historic District. Chattanooga, Tennessee-based Noble, led by Mit Shah as CEO, acquired the hotels because of their position in Savannah's historic district. The city recently was named Travel + Leisure magazine's No. 3 Top City in the U.S. and included on TIME's list of The World's Greatest Places of 2021. The 7-floor, 143-room Holiday Inn Express has 2,765 square feet of meeting space, a rooftop pool and the Port Royal Tavern in the lobby. The 147-room Hampton Inn has an outdoor pool, a fitness center and a business center. In the historic district, the hotels are near museums, historic landmarks, mansions, and monuments from the Revolutionary and Civil War eras. Both hotels are on East Bay Street across the Savannah River from the Savannah Convention Center and River Street shopping and entertainment area.

NEARLY EIGHT IN 10 Americans plan to travel by car to their summer destination, with the majority citing the enjoyment of driving, according to a recent survey commissioned by G6 Hospitality, parent company of the Motel 6 and Studio 6 brands. Most travelers prefer hotel stays, though they acknowledge that cost will influence their travel plans. The study, surveying 2,000 Americans with summer leisure plans, found that 80 percent distinguish between a "trip" and a "vacation". "There's nothing better than cruising on the highway with the windows down, sun shining and music playing, especially when you're surrounded by your loved ones - even those on four legs," said Julie Arrowsmith, G6 Hospitality's president and CEO. "Whether you're the planner or just along for the ride, Motel 6 and Studio 6 provide pet-friendly and affordable lodging so you can relax, enjoy the journey and focus on creating memories."

THE U.S. TOPS the global hotel construction pipeline in terms of project count, according to Lodging Econometrics. Overall, the pipeline increased 5 percent by projects and 4 percent by rooms over the same time last year with several stages of the pipeline hitting peaks by project and rooms counts. LE's most recent Global Hotel Construction Pipeline Trend Report released Thursday found the pipeline contains 14,779 projects with 2,412,736 rooms. There were 1,230,572 rooms in 6,896 projects under construction, all-time high. Another peak is in projects scheduled to start in the next 12 months with 4,599 projects and 651,133 rooms at the end the second quarter. There are an additional 3,283 projects and 531,031 rooms in the early planning stage of the pipeline. U.S. projects made up 38 percent of the pipeline with 5,582 projects and 687,801 rooms. China was second with 3,574 projects and 647,704 rooms, or 24 percent of the pipeline, meaning both countries make up 62 percent of the total pipeline.