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STR AND TOURISM ECONOMICS have increased year-over-year growth projections for ADR and RevPAR in the final revision of the U.S. hotel forecast for 2023. While some factors, such as higher interest rates and more restrictive lending, may impact the economy, their effect on the travel industry is not expected to be strong. In 2023, RevPAR saw a 0.3 percentage point increase, propelled by a 0.6ppt rise in ADR growth, according to STR and TE. Meanwhile, recent RevPAR trends affirm rate as the predominant performance driver. Occupancy was downgraded by 0.2ppts, STR and TE said in a statement. Growth projections for key performance metrics in 2024 remained flat from the previous forecast, reflecting the stabilization of long-term average trends.

Occupancy was 62 percent for the week ending April 16, down from 66.4 percent the week before and down 5.6 percent from 2019. ADR was $147.25 for the week, down from $150.45 the week before and up 14.4 percent from 2019. RevPAR reached $91.25 during the week, down from $99.93 the week before and up 8 percent from three years ago. Among STR's top 25 markets, Tampa saw the highest occupancy increase over 2019, up 3.2 percent to 76.6 percent. Phoenix posted the largest ADR increase in the week, up 33.8 percent to $189.16, over 2019.

U.S. HOTEL REVPAR is expected to grow steadily in 2024, driven by improving group business, inbound international travel, and traditional transient business demand, according to CBRE. This follows a strong performance in 2023 that muted the new forecast in some areas. The research firm forecasted a 3 percent increase in RevPAR growth in 2024, with occupancy improving by 45 basis points and ADR increasing by 2.3 percent. It indicates ongoing recovery of the lodging industry, with RevPAR in 2024 expected to surpass 2019 levels by 13.2 percent, CBRE Hotels said in a statement. CBRE's baseline forecast expects 1.6 percent GDP growth and 2.5 percent average inflation in 2024. Given the strong correlation between GDP and RevPAR growth, the economy's strength will directly impact the lodging industry's performance, the statement said. "We expect RevPAR growth to be slower in the first quarter due to last year's strong performance, but to reach its peak in the third quarter driven by the influx of inbound international travelers during the busy summer season," said Rachael Rothman, CBRE's head of hotel research and data analytics. "Urban and airport locations should particularly benefit from group and inbound international travel, as well as the normalization of leisure travel."

THE U.S. HOTEL industry showed improved performance in May compared to the same month last year, according to CoStar. All three performance metrics-occupancy, ADR, and RevPAR-increased year-over-year. The top 25 markets reported higher occupancy and ADR than all other markets. Occupancy increased to 65.7 percent in May, up from 65.2 percent in April, and increased by 1.5 percent compared to May 2023. ADR climbed to $160.40 from $157.31 the previous month, a 2.4 percent rise from 2023. RevPAR reached $105.46, up from $102.51 the preceding month, reflecting a 4 percent increase from May of the previous year. Among the top 25 markets, New York City led in all three key performance metrics: occupancy rose 5.8 percent to 88.9 percent, ADR increased 6.3 percent to $339.25, and RevPAR climbed 12.5 percent to $301.57. Markets with the lowest occupancy for the month included Detroit at 46.1 percent and Chicago at 49.4 percent.

U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE has increased in the second week of September compared to the previous week, according to CoStar. However, year-over-year comparisons remained mixed. Occupancy stood at 68.5 percent for the week ending on Oct. 14, a slight uptick from the previous week's 67.8 percent, and a marginal year-over-year decline of 2.3 percent. ADR increased to $164.25, up from the previous week's $163.19, marking a 3.2 percent surge compared to the previous year. RevPAR also showed improvement, reaching $112.51, surpassing the previous week's $110.68, and reflecting a 0.8 percent rise from 2022. Among the top 25 markets, Oahu Island experienced the highest year-over-year growth in occupancy, rising by 17.8 percent to reach 85.2 percent, while RevPAR increased by 29.7 percent to $243.22.

U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE improved in the third week of May compared to the previous week, with positive year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar. Key metrics, including occupancy, RevPAR, and ADR, all saw week-over-week increases. Occupancy increased to 67.4 percent for the week ending May 18, up from 66.1 percent the previous week, marking a 0.2 percent year-over-year rise. ADR rose to $163.11 from $162.14, reflecting a 2.6 percent jump compared to last year. RevPAR reached $109.93, up from $107.24 the prior week, showing a 2.8 percent increase compared to the same period in 2023. Among the top 25 markets, Houston experienced the only double-digit occupancy increase, rising 10.5 percent to 67.9 percent. Atlanta reported the highest year-over-year increases in ADR, rising by 10 percent to $137.30, while RevPAR increased by 18 percent to $98.86.

U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE showed improvement in the second week of January compared to the previous week, with mixed year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar. Key metrics, including occupancy, ADR, and RevPAR, saw moderate increases during the week compared to the New Year's commencement. The performance was influenced by the Consumer Electronics Show. Occupancy came in at 53.3 percent for the week ending Jan. 13, up from the previous week's 46.8 percent and reflecting a 2.8 percent year-over-year decrease. ADR rose to $153.84, compared to the prior week's $152.17, showing a 6.3 percent increase from the previous year. RevPAR increased to $81.96 from the prior week's $71.28, showing a 3.3 percent rise from the corresponding period in 2023. Among the top 25 markets, Las Vegas demonstrated the largest year-over-year increases in each of the three performance metrics. Occupancy increased by 29 percent to reach 79.8 percent, ADR rose by 77.3 percent to $283.74, and RevPAR increased by 128.8 percent to $226.34.

THE U.S. TOPS the global hotel construction pipeline in terms of project count, according to Lodging Econometrics. Overall, the pipeline increased 5 percent by projects and 4 percent by rooms over the same time last year with several stages of the pipeline hitting peaks by project and rooms counts. LE's most recent Global Hotel Construction Pipeline Trend Report released Thursday found the pipeline contains 14,779 projects with 2,412,736 rooms. There were 1,230,572 rooms in 6,896 projects under construction, all-time high. Another peak is in projects scheduled to start in the next 12 months with 4,599 projects and 651,133 rooms at the end the second quarter. There are an additional 3,283 projects and 531,031 rooms in the early planning stage of the pipeline. U.S. projects made up 38 percent of the pipeline with 5,582 projects and 687,801 rooms. China was second with 3,574 projects and 647,704 rooms, or 24 percent of the pipeline, meaning both countries make up 62 percent of the total pipeline.

OCCUPANCY PROJECTIONS ARE dropping while ADR projections are rising in a new forecast for U.S. hotels by STR and Tourism Economics. RevPAR is still expected to recover fully on a nominal basis this year, according to the forecast released Thursday at STR's 14th Annual Hotel Data Conference in Nashville. However, RevPAR is still expected to take until 2025 to recover when adjusted for inflation, according to the forecast. For 2022, RevPAR is now expected to average $93 compared to the projection of $92 released in June, when projected nominal RevPAR recovery was set in 2023. The occupancy projection for the year was lowered to 64.6 percent for the year and the ADR projection rose to $148. The updated forecast adds a little more than $2 to the ADR projection for both 2022 and 2023, and occupancy was lowered by less than a percentage point for each year.

THE U.S. HOTEL construction pipeline was slightly up at the end of the first quarter of 2022, according to Lodging Econometrics. Dallas was the top U.S. market for building. The pipeline stood at 5,090 projects containing 606,302 rooms, up 2 percent by projects, but down 3 percent by rooms, during the period. There are 961 projects with 128,784 rooms currently under construction in the first quarter, down 27 percent by projects and 28 percent by rooms compared to 2021, stated the latest trend report by LE. There are 1,911 projects with 223,030 rooms are scheduled to start in the next 12 months, up 2 percent by projects and 3 percent by rooms. Projects and rooms in early planning reached a record high in the first quarter, with 2,218 projects containing 254,488 rooms, up 24 percent by projects and 12 percent by rooms, compared to a year ago.

U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE stayed below the levels of the previous week as anticipated, according to CoStar. Occupancy, ADR, and RevPAR all saw declines compared to the preceding week. However, year-over-year comparisons remained positive. Occupancy dropped to 54.7 percent for the week ending Dec. 16, down from the previous week's 58.7 percent, but reflected a year-over-year increase of 1.1 percent. ADR decreased to $142.62, compared to the previous week's $153.36, showing a 4.7 percent uptick from the prior year. RevPAR also declined to $77.99, compared to the prior week's $89.98, indicating a 5.8 percent increase from the corresponding period in 2022. Among the top 25 markets, San Francisco saw the largest year-over-year increases in all three key performance metrics: occupancy surged by 32.0 percent to 70.2 percent, ADR soared 21.5 percent to $223.78, and RevPAR increased by 60.3 percent to $157.14.

A STABLE ECONOMIC backdrop is expected to fuel a 10.7 percent year-over-year increase in the U.S. short-term rental industry in 2024, surpassing the 6.7 percent rise seen in 2023, according to AirDNA's 2024 outlook report. Moreover, AirDNA foresees balanced growth for the industry in 2024, marked by a projected 10.9 percent increase in supply expansion guided by rising demand for more sustainable market practices. "Approaching 2024, the industry anticipates balanced growth with a projected 10.9 percent increase in supply expansion," said Jamie Lane, senior vice president of Analytics at AirDNA. "Contrary to exaggerated reports of an STR 'collapse,' heightened market competition emphasizes the need for hosts and property managers to meticulously monitor data trends. This strategic approach is crucial for surpassing competitors and sustaining revenue, taking advantage of a strong economy and the growing preference of travelers for STR lodging."

THE OMICRON VARIANT has not good for the hospitality industry, but it hasn't been as bad as expected, which is a good sign for the future, according to HotStats. GOPPAR for November was up from the same time last year, but still down from 2019. GOPPAR for November was $55.68, down 29.4 percent from November 2019. It's also down from $68.97 In October, but according to HotStats that is not unusual for this time of year. "A typical spike in profit in October, normally gives way to a drop off in November," HotStats said. "ADR in the month was $7 higher than at the same time in 2019 after being well down in 2020. This helped drive both RevPAR and TRevPAR, which were both up triple digits over 2020, though still down considerably versus 2019." The appearance and rapid spread of Omicron, which originated in South Africa and by December was the dominant strain in the U.S., was a "noisy" intrusion, HotStats said, coming as it did while the country was still dealing with a spike from the Delta variant. However, it could turn out to "be more insipid than insidious."