HOTEL STOCK PRICE volatility dragged the Baird/STR Hotel Stock Index in November. Both the hotel brands and hotel REITs significantly underperformed their respective benchmarks during the month.
The Baird/STR index fell 7.6 percent during the month from October. However, it was up 11.5 percent year to date through the first 11 months of 2021. The index rose 6.8 percent during October compared to September.
The index was behind both the S&P 500, which fell 0.8 percent in November, and the MSCI US REIT Index, which dropped 0.9 percent. The hotel brand sub-index dropped 7.2 percent from October while the hotel REIT sub-index slipped 8.9 percent.
"Hotel stock price volatility continued in November with both the Hotel brands and Hotel REITs significantly underperforming their respective benchmarks," said Michael Bellisario, senior hotel research analyst and director at Baird. "Two different investment narratives drove stock price performance during the month: In early November, third quarter earnings were better than expected, reopening optimism continued to gain momentum, and the hotel brands were hitting new all-time highs; but, by the end of the month, broader growth and inflation concerns surfaced, the Omicron variant spooked investors and impacted all travel-related stocks, and the hotel REITs were hitting new year-to-date lows."
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MONTHS OF RUMOR were confirmed true when Choice Hotels International on Wednesday announced it has proposed to acquire Wyndham Hotels & Resorts in an
approximately $9.8 billion transaction. The proposal to Wyndham stockholders came after months of negotiations broke down and Wyndham's board of directors
voted to decline Choice's offer, calling it "underwhelming" and risky.
AAHOA also issued a statement saying it has "high concern" that a Choice/Wyndham merger would give one franchiser too much dominance over the economy/limited
service hotel segment.
The proposal
In its announcement of the proposal, Choice said it sought to acquire all the outstanding shares of Wyndham at a price of $90 per share, payable in a mix of
cash and stock. Shareholders would receive $49.50 in cash and 0.324 shares of Choice common stock for each Wyndham share they own. Choice claims that is a
26 percent premium to Wyndham's 30-day volume-weighted average closing price ending on Oct. 16, an 11 percent premium to Wyndham's 52-week high, and a 30 percent
premium to Wyndham's latest closing price.
CHOICE HOTELS INTERNATIONAL is accusing the board of directors for Wyndham Hotels & Resorts of not being forthcoming with the company's shareholders
regarding Choice's exchange offer to acquire Wyndham. In its counter to the Wyndham board's rejection of the offer, Choice took issue with Wyndham's concerns
about getting regulatory approval for the deal and said Wyndham shareholders support the "industrial merits of a transaction."
In its original proposal, made public in October, Choice said it sought to acquire all the outstanding shares of Wyndham at a price of $90 per share and
shareholders would have received $49.50 in cash and 0.324 shares of Choice common stock for each Wyndham share they own. Choice claimed that is a 30 percent
premium to Wyndham's 30-day volume-weighted average closing price ending on Oct. 16, an 11 percent premium to Wyndham's 52-week high, and a 30 percent premium to
Wyndham's latest closing price.
Wyndham's board unanimously rejected Choice's proposal, calling it unsolicited, "highly conditional" and not in the best interest of shareholders. On Nov. 14,
however, Choice sent a letter to the Wyndham board with an "enhanced proposal" intended to address Wyndham's concerns about clearing federal regulations.
On Dec. 12, Choice launched its public exchange offer to acquire Wyndham and on Dec. 19 the Wyndham board officially rejected the offer and urged shareholders
not to tender shares for the deal.
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U.S. EXTENDED-STAY hotels continued to perform well in November with recovery indices up compared to October and 2019, according to a report from The Highland
Group. However, the market is showing signs of slowing.
All extended-stay segments posted RevPAR gains in November compared to last year, the US Extended-Stay Hotels Bulletin: November 2022 report said.
"Monthly gains in ADR and RevPAR have decelerated for most of the year and November increases were the lowest in 2022. Both economy and mid-price segments reported
RevPAR increases well below the rate of inflation for the first time in November," the report said. "ADR growth is still high compared to long-term averages but
with the economy segment reporting its eighth consecutive monthly decline in demand and mid-price extended-stay hotel demand also declining in November, rate
resistance is building especially at lower price points."
A LAWSUIT FILED in federal court in Washington state alleges that STR, owned by commercial real estate information researcher CoStar Group, along with
several major hotel companies conspired to inflate luxury hotel rates. The seven individuals named as plaintiffs in the lawsuit seek to make it a class-action
filing on behalf of every person who stayed at the defendants' hotels from February 2020 until the present for an unspecified amount.
CoStar and hotel companies including IHG Hotel & Resorts, Marriott International and Hyatt Hotels Corp., entered an exchange of "competitively-sensitive
information about their prices, supply, and future plans" in violation of the antitrust provisions of the Sherman Act, according to the lawsuit. STR and most
of the other defendants in the suit did not respond to requests for comment in time for this article, but a spokesperson for IHG said the company could not
comment on pending litigation.
"Teddy Roosevelt passed the antitrust laws to prevent titans of industry from price fixing in smoke-filled rooms," Steve Berman, the plaintiffs' lead attorney
told Reuters, calling the defendants' conduct the "modern equivalent."
The alleged price fixing happened in major cities including Boston, Chicago, Los Angeles, New York, San Diego, Denver, Washington, D.C., and Seattle. The lawsuit
focuses on STR's "Forward STAR" product that was expanded into many of those markets in April after launching 17 of the country's 25 largest hotel markets,
including Las Vegas, New York City, Los Angeles, Washington, D.C., Boston and Phoenix.
STR AND TOURISM Economics made significant downward adjustments to the 2024-25 U.S. hotel forecast, reflecting lower-than-expected performance and reduced
growth projections for the remainder of the year. Projected gains in ADR and RevPAR were downgraded by 1 and 2.1 percentage points, respectively. Occupancy is
also expected to decline, contrasting with the previous forecast's projection of year-over-year growth in this metric.
While an occupancy growth projection was maintained for 2025, ADR and RevPAR were adjusted downward by 0.8 and 0.9 percentage points, respectively, STR and TE said
in a joint statement.
"We have seen a bifurcation in hotel performance over the first four months of the year, which we don't believe will abate soon," said Amanda Hite, STR's president.
"The increased cost of living is affecting lower-to-middle income households and their ability to travel, thus lessening demand for hotels in the lower price tier.
The upscale through luxury tier is seeing healthy demand, but pricing power has waned given changes in mix and travel patterns and to a lesser extent, economic
conditions. Travel remains a priority for most Americans, but the volume has lessened as prices on goods and services continue to rise."