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THE BAIRD/STR Hotel Stock Index jumped 15.8 percent in October, according to STR. There were no signs of slowing as U.S. demand continued to strengthen during the month. The index decreased 8 percent year-to-date through the first ten months of 2022. The index fell 9.1 percent in September. In October, the index outgrew both the S&P 500, up 8 percent and the MSCI US REIT Index, increased 4.7 percent. The hotel brand sub-index increased 14.4 percent from September to 9,458, while the hotel REIT sub-index grew 20.6 percent to 1,193. "October was a strong rebound month for hotel stocks, and they recouped all their losses from the prior two months," said Michael Bellisario, senior hotel research analyst and director at Baird. "Importantly, both the global hotel brands and the hotel REITs were relative outperformers versus their respective benchmarks in October. As investors shifted their focus from broader macroeconomic uncertainties to sector-specific performance ahead of and through third-quarter earnings reports, hotels continued to screen favorably given still-strong underlying fundamentals and an intact post-pandemic recovery thesis."

THE BAIRD/STR HOTEL Stock Index dropped 2.4 percent to 5,600, influenced by increasing interest rates affecting both real estate stocks and investor sentiment, according to STR. Moreover, U.S. hotel demand saw a 1.3 percent decrease in October, linked in part to a calendar shift. This marks the third consecutive month of stock decline after a surge in July. "Hotel stocks declined for the third straight month in October, aligning with broader market trends," said Michael Bellisario, senior hotel research analyst and director at Baird. "Elevated interest rates continued to drive performance, with real estate stocks bearing the brunt. Hotel REITs stood out as relative outperformers. The global hotel brands experienced a roughly 2 percent decrease, closely mirroring the S&P 500's retreat in October." In October, the Baird/STR Index fell behind the S&P 500, down 2.2 percent, but surpassed the MSCI US REIT Index, down 4.5 percent.

U.S. HOTELS REPORTED higher performance in October compared to September, according to STR. However, performance during the month weakened when compared to 2019. Occupancy of U.S. hotels were 67.2 percent for October, increased from 66.7 percent from the month before and decreased 2.4 percent from 2019. ADR was $155.63 for the month, up from $154.32 in September and up 16.8 percent from three years ago. RevPAR was $104.59 for the month, improved from $103 the month before and up 14 percent over 2019. STR's top 25 markets showed higher occupancy and ADR than all other markets in October mainly due to continued improvement in business travel and groups.

U.S. HOTEL REVENUE and profitability saw a rise in October, propelled by increased group demand across the top 25 markets, according to CoStar's October 2023 Profit & Loss data. Meanwhile, the U.S. hospitality industry also witnessed its largest year-over-year increases in GOPPAR and TRevPAR since March 2023. In October, GOPPAR reached $97.45, marking a 3.7 percent increase from the same month in 2022. TRevPAR stood at $240.74, indicating a 4 percent increase, whereas EBITDA PAR amounted to $69.60, down 1.2 percent from September 2022. Labor costs notably rose to $74.48, reflecting a 5.9 percent increase. "The top 25 markets have demonstrated an 11 percent year-to-date increase in GOPPAR, surpassing a 14 percent rise in labor costs," said Audrey Kallman, research analyst at STR. "This double-digit GOPPAR growth is over 10 times the level observed in all other markets. New York City, a prominent business-centric market, spearheaded growth in the metric across major markets both on a year-to-date and monthly basis."

A CONTINUING SENSE of optimism about the nation's recovery among investors sent the Baird/STR Hotel Stock Index up in October. Hotel brands led the increase as concerns about the COVID-19 Delta variant began to ease. The Baird/STR index rose 6.8 percent during the month, and it also was up 20.7 percent year to date through the first 10 months of 2021. The index rose 5.2 percent during September compared to August. Still, the index was behind both the S&P 500, which rose 6.9 percent in October, and the MSCI US REIT Index, which rose 7.6 percent. The hotel brand sub-index rose 9 percent from September while the hotel REIT sub-index increased 0.5 percent. "Hotel stocks increased for the second straight month, but performance was led by the hotel brands once again," said Michael Bellisario, senior hotel research analyst and director at Baird. "The hotel REITs were marginally higher in October, while the hotel brands were the absolute and relative winners. Delta variant concerns are in the rearview mirror now, and investors are looking forward to the recovery continuing in 2022, particularly in some of the harder hit segments, markets, and regions that are poised to rebound strongly."

EXTENDED-STAY HOTELS OUTPEFORMED the broader hotel industry across all performance metrics in October, marking a notably strong month for the sector, according to The Highland Group. Extended-stay supply outpaced demand, leading to a decrease in occupancy. However, the decline was less pronounced than the overall hotel industry, where STR/CoStar reported a drop in demand compared to the previous year. Furthermore, the metrics of extended-stay hotels, including ADR, RevPAR, and revenues, demonstrated stronger growth compared to their counterparts in the broader hotel industry, The Highland Group said. The 2.2 percent net rise in extended-stay room supply in October, consistent with September, represents a modest increase compared to the average over the past 16 months. However, October marked the 25th consecutive month of 4 percent or less supply growth, significantly below the long-term average. The 12 percent surge in economy extended-stay supply, coupled with a reduction in mid-price segment rooms, primarily results from conversions, as new construction in the economy segment is estimated at around 2 percent of rooms compared to a year ago, the report added.

NOVEMBER BROUGHT A little less for U.S. hotels to be thankful for compared to the prior month, according to STR, but also saw improvements over 2019's performance. Meanwhile, with Christmas a week away, performance surpassed the comparable time period for 2019. Occupancy for November reached 57.6 percent, down from 62.9 percent in October and down 6.2 percent compared to 2019. October's occupancy was 8.8 percent lower than the same month in 2019. ADR was $128.50 for the month, lower than October's $134.78 but 2.4 percent higher than November 2019. RevPAR also was down on a month-to-month basis, $74.03 versus $84.75, but it was only down 3.9 percent from the same month in 2019 versus a 7.6 percent difference between October 2021 and October 2019. New York City had the highest occupancy for the month among STR's top 25 markets with 71.2 percent. That was still down 17.9 percent from 2019. None of the top 25 markets saw higher occupancy than 2019.

THE OMICRON COVID-19 variant could derail the hotel industry's fledgling recovery if countries like the U.S. move forward to tighten testing policies, according to HotStats. Future hotel bookings, meetings and other hotel-related activity will be impacted by the expectation of travel impediments, whether self-imposed, company-imposed or government-mandated, it added. In the U.S., major indices were still down double digits in October 2021 compared to same month two years ago, according to a blog post by HotStats. "Since a rapid uptick in occupancy from the beginning of the year through the summer, hitting an apex in July, occupancy in the U.S. has since more or less flatlined, a signal that the leisure boom could not be sustained at the same levels prior," said HotStats. "Though much maligned, there is propitious data surfacing in corporate travel. In October, corporate ADR was $7 higher than in October 2019 and $35 higher than in the previous month. Corporate volume mix, defined as the proportion of rooms sold at the corporate rate compared to total rooms sold, has grown 6 percentage points since July."

HOTEL STOCK PRICE volatility dragged the Baird/STR Hotel Stock Index in November. Both the hotel brands and hotel REITs significantly underperformed their respective benchmarks during the month. The Baird/STR index fell 7.6 percent during the month from October. However, it was up 11.5 percent year to date through the first 11 months of 2021. The index rose 6.8 percent during October compared to September. The index was behind both the S&P 500, which fell 0.8 percent in November, and the MSCI US REIT Index, which dropped 0.9 percent. The hotel brand sub-index dropped 7.2 percent from October while the hotel REIT sub-index slipped 8.9 percent. "Hotel stock price volatility continued in November with both the Hotel brands and Hotel REITs significantly underperforming their respective benchmarks," said Michael Bellisario, senior hotel research analyst and director at Baird. "Two different investment narratives drove stock price performance during the month: In early November, third quarter earnings were better than expected, reopening optimism continued to gain momentum, and the hotel brands were hitting new all-time highs; but, by the end of the month, broader growth and inflation concerns surfaced, the Omicron variant spooked investors and impacted all travel-related stocks, and the hotel REITs were hitting new year-to-date lows."

U.S. hotel performance has declined in the fourth week of October compared to the previous week, according to CoStar. However, year-over-year comparisons revealed positive results. Occupancy came in at 66 percent for the week ending Oct. 28, slightly lower than the previous week's 69 percent, but with year-over-year growth of 0.7 percent. ADR dropped to $160.89, down from the previous week's $165.32, yet showing a notable 3.9 percent increase from the previous year. Similarly, RevPAR saw a decrease, reaching $106.16 compared to the previous week's $114.04, but reflecting a solid 4.6 percent rise from 2022. Among the top 25 markets, Minneapolis saw the largest year-over-year increase in occupancy, rising by 12.7 percent to reach 64.5 percent.

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U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE improved in the first week of October due to school breaks and extended holiday weekend, but the performance was mixed when compared to 2019, according to STR. Hotel performance during weekdays declined due to Yom Kippur as expected. Post-Hurricane Ian demand in Florida also boosted the performance. Occupancy was 68.2 percent for the week ending Oct. 8, up from 66.4 percent the week before and decreased 3.5 percent from 2019. ADR was $153.79 during the week, increased from $149.71 the week before and up 16.9 percent from three years ago. RevPAR reached $104.83 in the first week of October, up from $99.36 the week before and increased 12.8 percent from 2019. Orlando reported the highest occupancy increase among STR's top 25 markets, up 1.9 percent to 73.6 percent, over 2019.

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THE OMICRON VARIANT has not good for the hospitality industry, but it hasn't been as bad as expected, which is a good sign for the future, according to HotStats. GOPPAR for November was up from the same time last year, but still down from 2019. GOPPAR for November was $55.68, down 29.4 percent from November 2019. It's also down from $68.97 In October, but according to HotStats that is not unusual for this time of year. "A typical spike in profit in October, normally gives way to a drop off in November," HotStats said. "ADR in the month was $7 higher than at the same time in 2019 after being well down in 2020. This helped drive both RevPAR and TRevPAR, which were both up triple digits over 2020, though still down considerably versus 2019." The appearance and rapid spread of Omicron, which originated in South Africa and by December was the dominant strain in the U.S., was a "noisy" intrusion, HotStats said, coming as it did while the country was still dealing with a spike from the Delta variant. However, it could turn out to "be more insipid than insidious."

THERE WAS A slight slip in U.S. hotel performance in the third week of October compared to the week before, according to STR. However, numbers improved during the week when compared to 2019. Occupancy was 69.9 percent for the week ending Oct. 22, down from 70.3 percent the week before and down 0.5 percent from 2019. ADR was $157.43 during the week, slightly dropped from $157.52 the week before and up 16.7 percent from three years ago. RevPAR reached $110.11 in the third week of Oct. 22, just dipped from $110.78 the week before and up 16.1 percent from 2019. Among STR's top 25 markets, Tampa reported the largest increase in occupancy during the week, up 7.4 percent to 75.9 percent and RevPAR, increased 39.2 percent to $117.28, over 2019. It has been one of the markets in Florida that have seen a performance lift associated with post-Hurricane Ian demand.

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U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE dropped in the fourth week of October compared to the week before, according to STR. When compared to 2019, occupancy increased as a result of the Halloween calendar shift, as the holiday fell during the comparable week three years ago. STR reminded that in the first week of November performance metrics will show the negative side of that shift. Occupancy was 65.8 percent for the week ending Oct. 29, down from 69.9 percent the week before and up 5.2 percent from 2019. ADR was $152.94 during the week, dipped from $157.43 the week before and up 21.4 percent from three years ago. RevPAR reached $100.59 during the week, down from $110.11 the week before and up 27.8 percent from 2019. Among STR's top 25 markets, Tampa reported the largest increase in each of the key performance metrics: occupancy up 21.5 percent to 76.1 percent, ADR increased 42.1 percent to $158.38 and RevPAR improved 72.5 percent to $120.58, over 2019. Tampa has been one of the markets in Florida that have seen a performance lift associated with post-Hurricane Ian demand.

IN JUNE, GOPPAR for U.S. hotels reached its highest level since October 2019, according to STR. All profitability metrics were up in the month compared to the month before. GOPPAR was $91.23 for the month, up from $88.63 reported in May. In April GOPPAR stood at $90.96. EBITDA PAR was $69.53 for June, TRevPAR was $226.10 and labor costs per room were $68.40. "Each of the key bottom-line metrics increased from May due to a rise in room rates as well as improved revenue from F&B and groups," said Joseph Rael, STR's senior director of financial performance. "Profit margins have held strong the past 12 months but have been slightly reduced recently due to rising wages and costs. Hotels have brought back services, amenities and F&B operations that were previously reduced, which have increased profits overall but at lower margins. While F&B revenues remain strong, catering and banquet revenue has lagged with improvement in recent months due to rising group demand."