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DESPITE PROJECTIONS OF persistent inflation and a moderate economic recession, CBRE's November 2022 Hotel Horizons forecast calls for a 5.8 percent increase in RevPAR in 2023. This is up from CBRE's previous forecast of a 5.6 percent increase in RevPAR for 2023. Propelling CBRE's increased outlook for RevPAR is an expected 4.2 percent rise in ADR, driven in part by the continuation of above long-run average inflation. For 2023, CBRE is forecasting the Consumer Price Index in the U.S. to increase by 3.5 percent year over year. Inflation continues to have a mixed impact on the hotel industry, bolstering top-line growth while pressuring margins. Supply and Demand Inflation is also impacting development activity. The combination of rising construction material costs, a tight labor market, and high interest rates will serve to keep supply growth over the next five years 40 percent lower than historical trends. Instead of construction, we expect cash flows in the near term to be focused on debt reductions, renovations and remodels given the backlog of Capex that built up during the pandemic. Given its forecast for a 0.2 percent decline in 2023 gross domestic product, CBRE lowered its expectations for demand growth from 3.3 percent in their August 2022 forecasts to 2.9 percent in the November update. With the projected supply increase remaining at 1.2 percent for 2023, the net result is a reduction in CBRE's occupancy growth estimate for the year to 1.6 percent, down from the 2 percent increase previously forecast. The lowering of occupancy expectations will somewhat offset the enhanced outlook for ADR growth.

THE U.S. HOTEL construction pipeline dropped 8 percent by projects and 10 percent by rooms in 2021 when compared to 2020, according to Lodging Econometrics. However, the number of projects in the early planning stage is rising, it added. The total construction pipeline at the fourth quarter of last year stood at 4,814 projects containing 581,953 rooms, according to LE. There were 2,021 projects containing 239,816 rooms in the early planning stage, up 18 percent by projects and 11 percent by rooms, LE data shows. According to LE, 1,821 hotel projects containing 210,890 rooms are scheduled to start construction in the next 12 months. As many as 972 projects containing 131,247 rooms under construction finished the year. "New project announcements are down in the fourth quarter. However, developers are eager to accelerate projects long-delayed by the COVID-19 pandemic. Unfortunately, they face some development roadblocks, including escalating inflation and supply chain shortages, that are causing higher prices versus 'pre-pandemic' costs for labor and materials," LE said. "These factors continue to prolong hotel development timelines. We anticipate these challenges to abate throughout the year and see construction starts to moderately improve."

THE U.S. HOTEL industry will be well on the way to recovery in 2022, according to consulting firm HVS Americas. However, a full recovery in real terms, after adjusting for inflation, remains a few years away, it added. With more assets, both distressed and well performing, expected to come to market this year, 2022 will be an exciting year for the industry, said Rod Clough, president of HVS, in an article titled 'ALIS 2022 Takeaways - Our Industry Braces for a Big Year Ahead'. A near full recovery in RevPAR at $85 for U.S. hotels is likely to happen by the end of 2022 when compared to $86 in 2018-19. "The higher inflationary environment will continue to bode well for hotels, resulting in ADR pricing power leading to a lift in revenue on top of still lean operational models. Group travel is still lagging the recovery, but near-term, smaller-group bookings (at newly raised room rates) should help bridge the gap while the industry waits for larger meetings to return," Clough wrote in the article. "Rising development costs due to supply-chain disruptions, labor shortages, and overall inflation are leading to a general contraction in new hotel openings. Moreover, development challenges are intensifying for major CBDs, attributed to slow office re-openings, a lag in larger convention bookings, higher operating/labor costs, and even higher construction costs than your average project."