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THE UPWARD MOVEMENT of ADR for U.S. hotels lifted the forecast for the market by STR and Tourism Economics. The travel research firms released the new forecast during the opening sessions of the Americas Lodging Investment Summit in Los Angeles on Monday. The recovery timeline laid out in the new forecast remains mostly the same as the previous forecast released in November, with ADR will near full recovery this year. RevPAR is anticipated to exceed 2019 levels in 2023, but when adjusted for inflation ADR and RevPAR are not projected to reach full recovery until after 2025. Occupancy is projected to surpass 2019 levels in 2023. "The industry recaptured 83 percent of pre-pandemic RevPAR levels in 2021, and momentum is expected to pick up after a slow start to this year," said Carter Wilson, STR's senior vice president of consulting. "With so much of that RevPAR recovery being led by leisure-driven ADR, however, it is important to keep an eye on the real versus the nominal. Terms of recovery are not playing out evenly across the board, and many hoteliers have had to raise rates to minimize the bottom-line hit from labor and supply shortages. We are anticipating inflation to remain higher throughout the first half of the year with a gradual leveling off during the third and fourth quarters. If that happens, and we avoid major setbacks with the pandemic, this year will certainly be one to watch with demand and occupancy also shaping up to hit significant levels during the second half."

THE U.S. HOTEL construction pipeline showed positive trends in the third quarter of 2022 as total projects stood at 5,317 containing 629,489 rooms, according to Lodging Econometrics. That's up 10 percent by projects and 6 percent by rooms year-over-year. There are 987 projects with 135,050 rooms under construction in the U.S. at the end of the third quarter, according to the U.S. Construction Pipeline Trend Report from LE. As many as 987 projects with 135,050 rooms are under construction during the period. According to LE, 2,074 projects containing 236,894 rooms will start construction in the next 12 months, up 14 percent by projects and 13 percent by rooms year-over-year, respectively. Projects in the early planning stage reached record in the third quarter, with 2,256 projects containing 257,545 rooms, a 14 percent increase by projects and 7 percent increase in rooms when compared to same period last year.

IN THE FIRST week of February, U.S. weekly hotel occupancy eclipsed 50 percent for the first time in more than a month, according to STR. However, occupancy declined for the week under review when compared to the same period in 2019. Occupancy was 50.4 percent for the week ending Feb. 5, up from 49.7 percent the week before and down 15.8 percent from the comparable week in 2019. ADR was $125.06 for the week, up from $122.40 the week before and down just 1.2 percent from two years ago. RevPAR reached $63.05 during the week under review, up from $60.82 the week before and down 16.8 percent from the same period two years ago. According to the report, none of STR's top 25 markets recorded an occupancy increase over 2019. Norfolk/Virginia Beach came closest to its pre-pandemic level, down just 0.6 percent to 47.3 percent.

Occupancy was 62 percent for the week ending April 16, down from 66.4 percent the week before and down 5.6 percent from 2019. ADR was $147.25 for the week, down from $150.45 the week before and up 14.4 percent from 2019. RevPAR reached $91.25 during the week, down from $99.93 the week before and up 8 percent from three years ago. Among STR's top 25 markets, Tampa saw the highest occupancy increase over 2019, up 3.2 percent to 76.6 percent. Phoenix posted the largest ADR increase in the week, up 33.8 percent to $189.16, over 2019.

THE U.S. HOTEL construction pipeline was slightly up at the end of the first quarter of 2022, according to Lodging Econometrics. Dallas was the top U.S. market for building. The pipeline stood at 5,090 projects containing 606,302 rooms, up 2 percent by projects, but down 3 percent by rooms, during the period. There are 961 projects with 128,784 rooms currently under construction in the first quarter, down 27 percent by projects and 28 percent by rooms compared to 2021, stated the latest trend report by LE. There are 1,911 projects with 223,030 rooms are scheduled to start in the next 12 months, up 2 percent by projects and 3 percent by rooms. Projects and rooms in early planning reached a record high in the first quarter, with 2,218 projects containing 254,488 rooms, up 24 percent by projects and 12 percent by rooms, compared to a year ago.

U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE dipped in the first week of September compared to the week before, according to STR. However, performance during the week improved when compared to 2019. Occupancy was 62.8 percent for the week ending Sept. 3, down from 65 percent the week before and up 3.1 percent from 2019. ADR was $147.14 for the week, almost similar to the week before at $147.16 and increased 20.9 percent from three years ago. RevPAR reached $92.45 during the week, down from $95.62 the week before and increased 24.6 percent from 2019. Among STR's top 25 markets, Miami reported the largest increase in occupancy to kick off September, up 30.1 percent to 62.2 percent and RevPAR, increased 86.5 percent to $112.37, over 2019.

HOSPITAITY FIRM OYO Rooms has filed fresh documents with India's stock market regulator, Securities and Exchange Board of India, for an Initial Public Offering in early next year, media reports said. The company filed fresh financial documents on Sept. 19 and is now targeting an IPO in January 2023, according to CoStar. OYO filed preliminary IPO documents in 2021, only to shelve the listing plan earlier this year after the prolonged pandemic hurt its growth and forced the company to cut thousands of jobs. The latest financial documents showed narrower losses and a rebound in sales for the year through March 2022 and in the three months to June 2022.

INTERNATIONAL INBOUND TRAVEL is expected to slow down in the fall after surging over the summer, according to the latest U.S. Travel Association forecast. USTA also expects it may take until 2025 for the travel segment to recover to pre-pandemic levels. Inbound travel recovery picked up in summer and reached a pre-pandemic high of 35 percent below 2019 levels in July 2022, said U.S. Travel Association. It improved from a 41 percent decrease in May and declines of more than 50 percent earlier in 2022. The latest report by Aaron Szyf, economist, USTA, said that inbound travel recovery continued from Europe and Latin America in the past few months, which was 22 percent below 2019 levels in July. Meanwhile, Asian markets declined 66 percent in July, largely due to stagnation from China and a very slow return from Japan.

THE U.S. IS expected to lift its requirement for pre-departure COVID testing by international travelers bound for the country. Travel industry organizations that have been lobbying for ending the test requirement welcomed the decision announced on Friday. Beginning Sunday, fully vaccinated travelers will no longer have to test negative before entering the U.S., according to media reports. After learning of the plan to lift the testing requirement, the U.S. Travel Association, which last month met with White House officials, along with Airlines for America, to make their case against the pre-departure testing said in a statement that the decision was expected to add 5.4 million visitors to U.S. and $9 billion in travel spending through remainder of 2022. "Today marks another huge step forward for the recovery of inbound air travel and the return of international travel to the U.S. The Biden administration is to be commended for this action, which will welcome back visitors from around the world and accelerate the recovery of the U.S. travel industry," said Roger Dow, USTA president and CEO. "International inbound travel is vitally important to businesses and workers across the country who have struggled to regain losses from this valuable sector. More than half of international travelers in a recent survey pointed to the pre-departure testing requirement as a major deterrent for inbound travel to the U.S."

CBRE HOTELS RESEARCH has once again revised its forecast for the second half of 2022. The revision is mainly due to strong gains in the second quarter and expectations of positive growth next year. RevPAR for the second half of the year will rise to 14.7 percent year-over-year, up from the previous projection of 13.1 percent in May, according to CBRE. The reasons for the spike are a 3.5 percentage point increase in ADR and a 2.2 percentage point reduction in CBRE's demand forecast. Second quarter RevPAR reached $98.84, up 38 percent year over-year, and an all-time quarterly high at 106 percent of 2019's level. RevPAR growth was driven mainly by ADR, up 25.5 percent, followed by occupancy, up 9.9 percent.

THE CITY OF Los Angeles is not doing enough to regulate short-term rental properties, according to AAHOA and a report from local advocacy group Better Neighbors LA. Both groups say the city should do more to enforce its existing 2019 ordinance on home sharing apps such as Airbnb and Vrbo. Los Angeles' ordinance requires short-term rentals to register and sets other regulations on home sharing apps. However, the Better Neighbors report found that the city's enforcement of the ordinance has been dropping since 2022, evidenced by a 54 percent decrease in warning letters, an 85 percent decrease in fines and a 25 percent increase in non-compliant listings. "Every year we put out an annual report that gives a snapshot of how enforcement is going in the city of Los Angeles, how many short-term rentals exist, and how that's changed from the prior year. This year, we've found that non-compliance is up," Allison Kriste, a representative of Better Neighbors Los Angeles, said in an interview with the Santa Monica Mirror newspaper. "We found a high rate of non-compliance across the boards in the city of Los Angeles. In addition, we've also found that enforcement activity is down. We're identifying more non-compliant listings, as compared to last year. The city is issuing fewer warning letters, they're issuing fewer fines. They're not doing a whole lot."

THE WAR IN Ukraine and lingering concerns about the COVID-19 pandemic are making some travelers nervous, according to a survey from risk and crisis response provider Global Rescue. Still, Global Rescue found that fewer people are experiencing hesitancy about travel. About 71 percent of respondents to Global Rescue's Spring 2022 Traveler Safety and Sentiment Survey said they are somewhat concerned, concerned or much more concerned about international travel since the beginning of the war in Ukraine. The remaining 29 percent said they are not concerned at all. The respondents' destinations also caused some anxiety as well as returning to travel after two years of pandemic-related travel restrictions. At the same time, 89 percent of respondents said the war in Ukraine has not changed their travel plans and 70 percent are not experiencing any re-entry to travel anxiety. An even larger majority, 84 percent, of survey takers report they are less or much less concerned about travel today compared to the beginning of the pandemic.

AN ESTIMATED 54.6 million people will travel 50 miles or more from home this Thanksgiving, according to AAA Travel, 1.5 percent more than last year and 98 percent of pre-pandemic volumes. AAA is projecting this year will be the third busiest for Thanksgiving travel since AAA started tracking in 2000. Continuing a years-long trend, most travelers, nearly 49 million, will drive to their holiday destinations between Nov. 23 to 27, according to AAA. That number is up 0.4 percent from 2021 but still 2.5 percent below 2019 levels. "Families and friends are eager to spend time together this Thanksgiving, one of the busiest for travel in the past two decades," says Paula Twidale, AAA's Senior Vice President of Travel. "Plan ahead and pack your patience, whether you're driving or flying."