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STR AND TOURISM Economics made significant downward adjustments to the 2024-25 U.S. hotel forecast, reflecting lower-than-expected performance and reduced growth projections for the remainder of the year. Projected gains in ADR and RevPAR were downgraded by 1 and 2.1 percentage points, respectively. Occupancy is also expected to decline, contrasting with the previous forecast's projection of year-over-year growth in this metric. While an occupancy growth projection was maintained for 2025, ADR and RevPAR were adjusted downward by 0.8 and 0.9 percentage points, respectively, STR and TE said in a joint statement. "We have seen a bifurcation in hotel performance over the first four months of the year, which we don't believe will abate soon," said Amanda Hite, STR's president. "The increased cost of living is affecting lower-to-middle income households and their ability to travel, thus lessening demand for hotels in the lower price tier. The upscale through luxury tier is seeing healthy demand, but pricing power has waned given changes in mix and travel patterns and to a lesser extent, economic conditions. Travel remains a priority for most Americans, but the volume has lessened as prices on goods and services continue to rise."

U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE fell in the first week of August compared to the week before following seasonal patterns, according to STR. However, ADR and RevPAR were up compared to the same period in 2019. Occupancy was 69.9 percent for the week ending August 6, down from 71.9 percent the week before and dropped 5.7 percent from 2019. ADR was $154.48 for the week, decreased from $158.32 the week before and increased 15.1 percent from three years ago. RevPAR reached $108.04 during the week, down from $113.90 the week before and up 8.5 percent from 2019. St. Louis reported the largest occupancy increase during the week, up 7.1. percent to 75.9 percent, over 2019, among STR's top 25 markets. Oahu Island (84.6 percent) led major markets in absolute occupancy during the first week of August, followed by Seattle (84.8 percent), and San Diego (83.8 percent).

U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE remained relatively flat during the third week of January, according to STR. Tampa, Florida, led the top 25 markets in terms of occupancy. Occupancy was 48.7 percent for the week ending Jan. 22, and it was 48.8 percent the week before. It was down 15.9 percent from the comparable week in 2019. ADR was $122.17 for the week, almost same as the week before at $122.12 and down 1.4 percent from two years ago. RevPAR reached $59.52, it was $59.57 the prior week and down 17.1 percent from the same period two years ago. None of STR's to 25 markets recorded an occupancy increase during the period compared to two years ago. Tampa came closest to its pre-pandemic comparable in the third week, down just 1.7 percent to 72.1 percent. It also posted the largest ADR rise, up 14 percent to $151.74. The only RevPAR increase was also registered at Tampa, up 12 percent to $109.39.

U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE increased in the third week of February mainly due to Presidents' Day weekend, according to STR. The data research firm also reported improvement for the week compared to 2019. Occupancy was 59.1 percent for the week ending Feb. 19, up from 54.6 percent the week before and down 8.4 percent for the same period in 2019. ADR was $140.11 for the week, increased from $133.72 the week before and up 8.4 percent from two years ago. RevPAR was $82.87 for the week, up from $73 the week before and down just 0.8 percent from the same period two years ago. Norfolk/Virginia Beach recorded the only occupancy increase among STR's top 25 markets in the third week of February, up 5.7 percent to 55 percent, over 2019. According to the report, Miami posted the highest ADR increase during the period, increased 28 percent to $347.48, followed by Super Bowl LVI host, Los Angeles, which was up 26.4 percent to $225.07.

U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE displayed mixed outcomes in the fourth week of February compared to the previous week, according to CoStar. While occupancy and RevPAR experienced a modest increase, ADR declined from the prior week. Occupancy increased to 62 percent for the week ending Feb. 24, up from the previous week's 59.2 percent, marking a 3.3 percent year-over-year decline. ADR decreased to $156.62 from $162.24 the prior week, reflecting a 0.3 percent increase compared to the previous year. RevPAR rose to $97.12 from $96.10 the prior week, indicating a 2.9 percent decrease compared to the same period in 2023. Among the top 25 markets, Minneapolis reported the highest year-over-year occupancy increase, rising by 4.5 percent to reach 47.8 percent.

EXTENDED-STAY HOTELS DISPLAYED varied performance in December compared to the overall hotel industry, with supply, demand, and room revenues showing relative gains, according to The Highland Group. Occupancy experienced a milder decline than the broader hotel sector while low ADR growth and an unexpected decline in economy extended-stay RevPAR resulted in a total extended-stay hotel RevPAR decrease versus a slight RevPAR increase in the overall hotel industry. The 2.4 percent net increase in extended-stay room supply in December represents a modest rise compared to the average over the past 18 months and a slight gain over the most recent three months, the report said. Supply shifts overview December marked nine consecutive quarters with 4 percent or less supply growth, significantly below the long-term average, according to The Highland report. The 13 percent surge in economy extended-stay supply and the reduction in mid-price segment rooms are primarily attributed to conversions, with new construction in the economy segment accounting for approximately 3 percent of rooms compared to a year ago.

U.S. HOTEL INDUSTRY reported lower performance results in the first week of June from the previous week, according to CoStar. However, there was slightly positive comparisons year over year. All key metrics including occupancy, RevPAR and ADR were down compared to prior week. Occupancy declined to 62 percent for the week ending June 1, down from 67.7 percent the prior week, reflecting a 0.9 percent year-over-year increase. ADR decreased to $150.87 from $160.67, yet still showed a 0.1 percent increase compared to last year. RevPAR stood at $93.50, a decline from the previous week's $108.73, but marking a 1 percent increase compared to the same period in 2023. Among the top 25 markets, New Orleans experienced the highest year-over-year occupancy increase, rising 17.8 percent to 66.8 percent.

U.S. EXTENDED-STAY hotels experienced their first quarterly decline in RevPAR since the first quarter of 2021, according to The Highland Group. In the first quarter, the segment saw a 1.6 percent drop in RevPAR, despite a 1.5 percent increase in revenues. Demand increased by 1.7 percent, contrasting with a 2.8 percent fall in total hotel demand when excluding upper upscale and luxury segments. STR/CoStar estimated that overall hotel RevPAR, excluding upper upscale and luxury segments, which have minimal extended-stay room supply, increased by 1.3 percent in the first quarter of 2024 compared to the same period in 2023. The Highland Group's 2024 First Quarter U.S. Extended-Stay Hotels report indicated that overall hotel RevPAR and room revenues declined by 1.1 percent and 0.9 percent year-to-date, respectively, excluding upper upscale and luxury segments.

U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE saw an uptick in the third week of March compared to the previous week, although year-over-year figures continued to decline, according to CoStar. Key metrics such as occupancy, ADR and RevPAR continued their upward trajectory during this period compared to the preceding week. Occupancy increased to 66.5 percent for the week ending March 16, up from the previous week's 63.2 percent, reflecting a 1.4 percent year-over-year decline. ADR rose to $163.21 from $156.96 the previous week, marking a 2.1 percent decrease compared to last year. RevPAR reached $108.51, up from the previous week's $99.17, signifying a 3.5 percent decrease compared to the same period in 2023. Among the top 25 markets, Seattle reported significant year-over-year increases in occupancy, rising by 12.7 percent to 73 percent, and in RevPAR, which increased by 21.7 percent to $120.29.

U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE has increased in the second week of September compared to the previous week, according to CoStar. However, year-over-year comparisons remained mixed. Occupancy stood at 68.5 percent for the week ending on Oct. 14, a slight uptick from the previous week's 67.8 percent, and a marginal year-over-year decline of 2.3 percent. ADR increased to $164.25, up from the previous week's $163.19, marking a 3.2 percent surge compared to the previous year. RevPAR also showed improvement, reaching $112.51, surpassing the previous week's $110.68, and reflecting a 0.8 percent rise from 2022. Among the top 25 markets, Oahu Island experienced the highest year-over-year growth in occupancy, rising by 17.8 percent to reach 85.2 percent, while RevPAR increased by 29.7 percent to $243.22.

U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE has increased from the previous week, aligning with the extended holiday weekend, while year-over-year comparisons also continue to show positive trends, according to CoStar. The percentage changes showed positivity on weekdays due to comparisons with the Yom Kippur period from the previous year, but year-over-year occupancy rates still experienced a decline. Occupancy stood at 67.8 percent for the week ending on Oct. 7, a slight rise from the preceding week's 66.7 percent, with a marginal year-over-year decline of 0.2 percent, according to CoStar. ADR was $163.19, showing an increase from the previous week's $157.89 and a notable 5.4 percent surge compared to the previous year. RevPAR also saw an uptick to $110.68, surpassing the previous week's $105.31, and reflecting a 5.2 percent rise from 2022.

Occupancy was 62 percent for the week ending April 16, down from 66.4 percent the week before and down 5.6 percent from 2019. ADR was $147.25 for the week, down from $150.45 the week before and up 14.4 percent from 2019. RevPAR reached $91.25 during the week, down from $99.93 the week before and up 8 percent from three years ago. Among STR's top 25 markets, Tampa saw the highest occupancy increase over 2019, up 3.2 percent to 76.6 percent. Phoenix posted the largest ADR increase in the week, up 33.8 percent to $189.16, over 2019.

U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE persisted in its downward trend during the last week of August, influenced by seasonal patterns in contrast to the previous week, according to CoStar. However, year-on-year comparisons improved while Maui Island, Hawaii, still recovering from deadly wildfires, showed signs of recovery. Occupancy came in at 65 percent for the week ending Aug. 26, down from the previous week's 67 percent, but it showed a 0.4 percent increase compared to 2022. ADR stood at $150.23, a decrease from the previous week's $154.10, though it displayed a 1.7 percent growth compared to the same period last year. RevPAR was $97.62, below the prior week's $103.22, yet it still indicated a 2.1 percent rise from 2022. Among the top 25 markets, Las Vegas achieved the largest year-over-year occupancy increase as August ended, rising by 7.9 percent to reach 76.3 percent. Houston achieved the highest ADR at $112.08, with a 10.5 percent increase, and the highest RevPAR at $64.45, reflecting a 17.8 percent increase.

DESPITE PROJECTIONS OF persistent inflation and a moderate economic recession, CBRE's November 2022 Hotel Horizons forecast calls for a 5.8 percent increase in RevPAR in 2023. This is up from CBRE's previous forecast of a 5.6 percent increase in RevPAR for 2023. Propelling CBRE's increased outlook for RevPAR is an expected 4.2 percent rise in ADR, driven in part by the continuation of above long-run average inflation. For 2023, CBRE is forecasting the Consumer Price Index in the U.S. to increase by 3.5 percent year over year. Inflation continues to have a mixed impact on the hotel industry, bolstering top-line growth while pressuring margins. Supply and Demand Inflation is also impacting development activity. The combination of rising construction material costs, a tight labor market, and high interest rates will serve to keep supply growth over the next five years 40 percent lower than historical trends. Instead of construction, we expect cash flows in the near term to be focused on debt reductions, renovations and remodels given the backlog of Capex that built up during the pandemic. Given its forecast for a 0.2 percent decline in 2023 gross domestic product, CBRE lowered its expectations for demand growth from 3.3 percent in their August 2022 forecasts to 2.9 percent in the November update. With the projected supply increase remaining at 1.2 percent for 2023, the net result is a reduction in CBRE's occupancy growth estimate for the year to 1.6 percent, down from the 2 percent increase previously forecast. The lowering of occupancy expectations will somewhat offset the enhanced outlook for ADR growth.

U.S. EXTENDED-STAY HOTELS showed positive growth in April after a difficult first quarter, according to The Highland Group. Monthly room revenue growth was the highest in nearly a year, demand saw its strongest increase in 16 months, and ADR and RevPAR turned positive after two and four months of decline, respectively. "The performance of extended-stay hotels in April re-established the segment's long-term trend of increasing its market share of total hotel supply, demand and room revenues," said Mark Skinner, partner at The Highland Group. The extended-stay room supply grew 2.8 percent in April, slightly above the average monthly increase over the last two years, the report said. However, April marked 31 consecutive months of 4 percent or less supply growth, with annual supply change under 2 percent for two years-both metrics well below the long-term average.

U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE maintained a mixed trend compared to the previous week, in line with ongoing seasonal patterns, according to CoStar. However, there were positive year-over-year comparisons, signaling signs of recovery. Occupancy was 62.7 percent for the week ending Sept. 2, down from the prior week, but it showed a 0.2 percent increase compared to 2022, part of the seasonal pattern. ADR stood at $150.52, a slight drop from the previous week, though it displayed a 1.8 percent growth compared to the same period last year. RevPAR was $94.38, lower than the week ago, yet it still indicated a 2 percent rise from 2022. Among the top 25 markets, Minneapolis recorded significant year-over-year gains in occupancy, surging 19.1 percent to hit 74.4 percent, while RevPAR increased by 26.7 percent, reaching $101.06.

A STRONGER THAN expected performance by U.S. hotels in the fourth quarter of 2021 led CBRE Hotels Research to upgrade its forecast for the rest of 2022. CBRE now forecasts RevPAR will reach 2019 nominal levels by the third quarter of this year, one year earlier than the previous forecast. Occupancy is expected to rise 6.7 percent to 61.3 percent this year, then rise 5.2 percent to 64.4 percent in 2023. ADR is forecast to rise 10.1 percent to $133.94 in 2022 and go up 6 percent more to $141.99 in 2023. CBRE expects RevPAR to rise 17.5 percent in 2022 overall to $82.04 and then rise 11.5 percent to $91.46 in 2023. Positive trends, such as high employment and the return to the office for many workers who had been working from home contributed to the revised forecast, CBRE said. Other factors contributing to the improvement include below-average supply growth, strong domestic leisure trends, the resumption of inbound international travel and a predicted return to office later this year. However, ongoing inflation and geopolitical tensions connected to the war in Ukraine still threaten progress.

U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE exhibited mostly positive year-over-year trends in the first week of March, compared to the previous week, according to CoStar. Despite a slight increase in occupancy, RevPAR declined, while RevPAR remained static. Occupancy rose to 62.5 percent for the week ending March 2, up from the previous week's 62 percent, marking a 0.3 percent year-over-year decline. ADR decreased to $155.29 from $156.62 the prior week, reflecting a 2.7 percent increase compared to the previous year. RevPAR remained unchanged at $97.12 from the prior week's $97.12, indicating a 2.4 percent increase compared to the same period in 2023. Among the top 25 markets, Seattle reported the largest year-over-year occupancy increase, rising 12.1 percent to reach 66.5 percent.

U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE increased in the fourth week of September compared to the week before, according to STR. Performance also improved when compared to 2019. Occupancy was 70 percent for the week ending Sept. 24, increased slightly from 69.6 percent the week before and decreased just 1.5 percent from 2019. ADR was $157.99 for the week, up from $155.58 the week before and increased 15.7 percent from three years ago. RevPAR reached $110.60 during the week, increased from $108.25 the week before and up 13.9 percent from 2019. Among STR's top 25 markets, Orlando reported the highest occupancy increase for September's fourth week, up 7.9 percent to 72.2 percent, over 2019.

U.S. HOTEL REVPAR is expected to grow steadily in 2024, driven by improving group business, inbound international travel, and traditional transient business demand, according to CBRE. This follows a strong performance in 2023 that muted the new forecast in some areas. The research firm forecasted a 3 percent increase in RevPAR growth in 2024, with occupancy improving by 45 basis points and ADR increasing by 2.3 percent. It indicates ongoing recovery of the lodging industry, with RevPAR in 2024 expected to surpass 2019 levels by 13.2 percent, CBRE Hotels said in a statement. CBRE's baseline forecast expects 1.6 percent GDP growth and 2.5 percent average inflation in 2024. Given the strong correlation between GDP and RevPAR growth, the economy's strength will directly impact the lodging industry's performance, the statement said. "We expect RevPAR growth to be slower in the first quarter due to last year's strong performance, but to reach its peak in the third quarter driven by the influx of inbound international travelers during the busy summer season," said Rachael Rothman, CBRE's head of hotel research and data analytics. "Urban and airport locations should particularly benefit from group and inbound international travel, as well as the normalization of leisure travel."